hitlesswonder

Would Perez be that bad of a signing? It all depends on the money of course, but RotoWorld mentioned 5 million per for him. I think that's definitely low, but for 6 million or so I wouldn't be unhappy. His numbers the last 3 years are reasonable, and his home/road splits aren't bad, and he's nor old (although he may be hurt...). I think he could post a low 4 ERA, and that's just as good as Wright or Leiber would have done IMO. Anyway, I don't think the Sox will spend any significant money on a SP. I would look for maybe one position player signing (Dye? a middle infielder?) and that's it. If anything really significant happens it will be through a trade, I think

The internets are back up: tribune link. It doesn't sound promising. I'm guessing Hermanson and maybe Dye will be it in FA for the Sox. I don't think either one is a good idea. After what Felix Diaz did in AAA and out of the bullpen last year, I honestly don't see Hermanson being much of an improvement as a setup man. He did get some saves last year, but he's been so not good for five years that I don't think a couple months of OK relief work merits 6 million dollars over two years. I know it's not much by MLB standards, but it's deals like this that eat away at the budget (and yield little value) that make it impossible to sign a higher priced FA.

I wouldn't want a Branyan-esque player (ideally). But Branyan is a good comparison for Borchard IMO. Lots of strikeouts, low average, but great bursts of power. Branyan's career major league OPS is actually close to .800. I'm not suggesting that Branyan is a good player at all , but he's performed well enough occasionally to interest other teams in trading for him (even if only for cash last time) and hasn't been useless. If Borchard could put up numbers like Branyan did last year (.230 BA, .320 OBP, .849 OPS) he could at least be an acceptable 4th or 5th outfielder I think, or at least trade bait. Anyway, I thought hoping for a Branyan-like performance from Borchard would be reasonable, but even that is starting to seem optimistic. I agree about Miller, that's too much money.

From Phil Rogers column: I actually feel bad for Borchard (well almost, he is a multi-millionaire so that has to help somewhat). I was hoping he could at least produce like Russ Branyan at the ML level, but things don't look good. So, for people that like the idea of signing Vizquel I guess that's good news. No mention of how much money, which I think is key to whether or not it's a reasonable signing. I'm glad that the Sox want to upgrade at C. Miller might be OK, but really both he and Wilson are pretty old. It may be irrational, but I hate to see the Sox trying to prop up the team by signing aging veterans. It's not good sign IMO, it reminds me of the Orioles a few years ago. I'm worried the team might be in for a big fall soon. In what I think is really lazy reporting, Rogers suggests that the Sox have 19 million from losing Ordonez and Valentin to fill holes. If that were true, the payroll would be something like 82 million next year. I don't think that's accurate. If it is, the Sox should be going after better players than Vizquel, Miller, and Wilson.

Actually, I'd be pretty happy with a 4.50 ERA next year from Contreras. Still probably not worth 6 million, but at least useful (would've ranked 20th in the AL among qualifed starters last season....ERAs certianly have gotten high). And I apologize for earlier saying his ERA was close to 6 last season, it was actually 5.50. Which is of course still not good. I think it's strange that so many people seem to want to give Garland away for nothing because he hasn't pitched as well as people thought he would, he's inconsistent, and not worth whatever he'll get in arbitration. Contreras is like Garland raised to another power (more expensive, higher ERA, more inconsistent), but people still seem pretty optimisitic about him. Just for the record, I'm not a huge fan of Garland or anything. But seeing how much trouble the Sox had fiding a 5th starter with an ERA below 6 last year, I'd rather they hung on to him unless they get quality back in return (e.g. Randy Johnson).

Contreras walks so many people, I just don't think you can bring him in with anyone on base. That really limits his usefulness as a reliever IMO. Maybe he's OK as a long man, but that's so not worth 6 million dollars. Also, I generally think the "can't handle pressure/choke artist" description is used way, way too often (e.g. a lot of people thought Foulke couldn't close big games). But some players do seem to perform worse under pressure, and I think Contreras might be one of them. I don't think he'd be a good closer. As for trading him, I think there's absolutley no way the Sox can get anything for him right now. He makes 6 million a year for 2 years and posted an ERA close to 6 last season. And he's not young. The Sox gambled that they were smarter than the Yankees and could turn him around, and I think they have to see it through now and hope they were right.

Great post. I agree completely. I think Uribe is really best at shortstop (great range and arm) and he had over an .800 OPS last year. I don't know when he'll be more ready to start. If the Sox are concerned about 2nd and 3rd, they should go get Polanco. He's a much surer bet to produce offensively, and has a very good glove at either position. He's also much younger and shouldn't cost much more. Willie Harris hit over .250 last year, played good D, and couldn't hit lefthanders either. No one wants to pay him 8 million. Vizquel has had great career, and Harris hasn't played really well (although I definitely wouldn't give up on him yet). I know Vizquel brings more to the table than Harris, I just don't think it's worth 4 million a year more. I'd opt for Polanco or a RP.

If the Sox take on Vizquel for 4 and Johnson for 16.5 (minus 12.5 or so for Konerko and Garland) they'll have raised payroll by about 8 million dollars over what it was at the end of last year to around 71 million (assuming they are at around 63 million now per the Cheat's blog). The Sox website & Trib have said payroll would come in around 65 million. So let's assume that wasn't true and they are willing to add payroll for Johnson and Vizquel. I still don't see them paying for a decent 5th and closer/setup man. A good setup reliever will take at least 3 million IMO (a mediocre starter would be about the same). A real closer (e.g. Benitez) would cost much more. I think, it's more likely Grilli will be in the rotation and a Mike Jackson-ish RP will be signed.

From HardballTimes Take it for what you will (Gleeman is a Twins fan....). But at the least I have to agree that it seems silly for the Sox to rush in to sign Vizquel. I'm worried that they'll overpay to get it done early. Williams has a reputation for being a gambler, so if money is really tight it seems like they should wait to see how the market settles.

I agree Uribe could start now (he did for the Rockies). Which is one reason why I don't understand signing Vizquel (at least for 8 million). Obviously the Sox don't think Uribe is ready (which seems silly -- he showed a great glove and had .800 OPS last year), or they want to use Uribe as a utilityman because of doubts at 2B and 3rd (which still seems silly, since I'd rather get a much younger Placido Palanco to play 2nd or 3rd). But anyway, since the Sox actually pay people to make these decisions, hopefully they're right and I'm not

What stops AZ from asking for a mix of established players and prospects? If you were AZ's GM, would you give up a hall of fame pitcher without getting any value beyond this year? I don't think there's anyway they don't require getting at least one significant player they control beyond this year. Johnson is the last big chip AZ has to deal, they'll want to make it count. And I don't buy that the Sox are uniquely positioned to make the deal. St. Louis could do it and the Yankees as well (if AZ doesn't want prospects as has been suggested, Posada and Vazquez with NY picking up $$ should be a better deal). People in favor of this trade point out that Johnson is the best (or close) SP in MLB, Konerko is a rangeless, slow-footed product of USCF, and Garland is a headcase with an ERA of 5. All contracts are the same length (1 year), and AZ saves 4 million. Actually less than that since with AZ part of Johnson's contract is deferred. So they would only save deferred money, and maybe actually pay more this year. I don't understand how anyone can believe that and think the prospects aren't going to be good.

This is just my opinion, but I think the prospects the Sox give up would have to be good to get this deal done. A lot of posters feel RJ was the best SP in MLB last year, and he is AZ's biggest draw. He's not going to the Sox for just Konerko and Garland (both of whom are free agents after the year). My guess is that the prospects (and it was plural in the newspaper quote, for whatever that's worth) would have to be Anderson and McCarthy. AZ is going to demand a young quality pitcher that they control for a while. McCarthy is the only really significant SP prospect the Sox have above A level. AZ is stocked at the corner OF and has Tracy at 3B, plus good middle IF prospects. So CF or C are the only positions I can see them being interested in filling. Again, this is just opinion, but there's no way Johnson gets traded for just 12 million dollars of Konerko and Garland (the AZ GM can look up Graland's ERAs and Konerko's home/road splits just like we can).

If that's the case, I don't think he'll go to the Sox. I think Sox management has shown (with Colon and Wells) that they'll bring a big name on an expiring contarct to try and catch lightning in a bottle. But I really doubt they'll pony up another 16 million for the following year(s). And you know Johnson will not sign an extension for cheap. I'm sure he sees himself pitching several more years (at least according to his agent), and he's not going to lock into the Sox for cheap.

It might not be a bad trade if the prospects aren't from the best the Sox have (McCarthy, Anderson, Sweeney, etc.) I think Garland is a free agent after next year (isn't he?). If so, that's 2 expiring contracts for one more expensive one. I don't think the Sox would re-sign Konerko or Garland. I'd say if the Sox are still willing to spend some money and get another SP and a RP, that it's not a bad trade But, I have a feeling Anderson would be included. He went to ASU (I think) and plays CF which is a position the DBacks need. I think that would be overpaying for 1 year of Johnson. And I have to think McCarthy is possibly included as well (or instead of Anderson), since AZ would want young pitching. It is a huge risk (which seems to be Williams style). I'm sure people will post about how Johnson has shown no signs of slowing down, etc. But he's 41, has his knee shot up before each game, and had a bad 2003 ( 4.26 ERA I think). And, if his salary stops the Sox from filling any other holes, it's a bad trade. Just looking at wins, swapping Garland for Johnson could pick up maybe 10 wins (?), being really optimistic ans assuming the offense isn't wretched. That alone may not be enough to win the division. I think just getting a competent 5th starter might pick up that many and still allow other holes to be filled.

I'm always surprised by the low esteem that Sox fans have for Foulke. I remember him as being a pretty good closer (one of the best in the AL, actually), but that sentiment is clearly not widespread. I don't think Koch or Urbina are close to being as good as Foulke. Since 1999, Foulke has never had a year with an ERA above 3, while Urbina hasn't had one below 3 (he did hit 3 exactly once). Their career ERAs are a half run apart. I don't think I have to go over what Koch has done. Anyway, I agree the Sox need to pick up a Gordon-type of setup man/closer. Right now, if Shingo loses it there's really no one that can close. I think Willliamson might be worth a look. He was hurt last year which makes him risky, but means he might come cheap. And he fits the profile of what the Sox need, I think.

Who knows what they meant (maybe he needs to work on his OBP or reading balls better in the OF). It may have just been a motivational tool they're using. But even if they do think Lee lacks heart, that doesn't mean they're right. He's obviously worked hard on his defense. If he really lacked desire he would still be a bad OF'er. He's not. Like Qwerty said, his on-field effort breaking up double plays and going after balls in the OF is as good as anyone's on the team. Also, I've never seen him start the season out of shape, and I'm not sure that's true of Konerko (just a personal opinion, with no hard evidence). Everett, who is apparently a "grinder", definitely was out of shape last year (I know he was injured, but I have a hard time believing there wasn't something he could have done to not get fat). Anecdotally, the thing that sticks with me is that Lee is the one that reminded Manuel to pinch-run for someone in one of the last Twins games in 2003. He seems to care about the game to me. Lee does make mistakes on the bases, and I'm sure he has some mental lapses in other parts of his game. But the bottom line for me is that he looks like he plays hard, wants to improve and win, and he defintely produces as much as anyone on the team not named Thomas.

Milton would be a way worse pickup than Ortiz. He had around a 4.75 ERA last year in the NL (more than half a run higher than Oriz), gave up 43 Hrs (evenly split netween road and home) and had a horrific GO/AO ratio of around 0.5 (I think he gives up twice as many flyballs as Ortiz...). Milton would be a disaster at USCF. I seriuosly think Diaz or maybe even Grilli would be able to come close to matching Milton's performance.

Well, since we're discussing realisitic rosters for next, maybe it's appropriate to mention the article on the Sox website which says: That's rather disappointing. I think it does mean the Konerko or Lee will have to be moved if the Sox plan any acquisitions beyond Vizquel (or whomever they pick up for 4 million a year). The article again strongly suggests it will be Lee since the Sox are "loaded with young outfield talent". Of course, none of that talent can replace his numbers next year, if in fact it pans out at all. If Lee gets traded in a salary dump, I'll be very disappointed. I know he can bring more in return than Konerko, but if the Sox want to win next year it seems clear to me that Konerko is the one they should shop. He almost led the AL in HRs, there should be some market for him. The article did manage to brighten my mood somewhat though, since it had some pretty funny stuff to say towards the end:

It's a great blog -- I hope you stick with it. Getting linked to by Gleeman is definitely a sign of success

Gotta agree with that. I'm rather disappointed the Sox are ready to have Davis start next year. I know the FA catching crop is thin, but still...there's got to be someone they can get (Zaunn or Miller...). I actually would rather have Burke start I think. I do agree on Gload as well. If Sox do trade Konerko or Lee, I hope it's Konerko. Gload looks like he can hit ML pitching. I haven't seen that from Borchard, Escobar, or the other OF options. Finally, this isn't a knock against this thread, but the "grinder" talk coming from the Sox kind of annoys me. Teams win because their players perform better than others. Whether the performance is due to talent or effort ("grinding") doesn't matter to me. I don't want a team the just tries really hard, I want a team that plays well. The best players usually work hard and have talent. To me "grinding" sounds suspiciously like a PR phrase used to sell fans on the idea that we don't want those high priced talented prima donnas, we want a team of guys that hit .250 (and are cheap) but really bring it everyday. It also plays into the idea that the last 4 years the talent was in place, but the players just didn't try hard enough. I don't know enough to say whether that's really true or not, but I'm suspicious in that it lets the Sox organization off the hook. The bottom line is the performance wasn't there, whether from talent or effort. I'll stop ranting now...

I agree. I think it's likely that Vizquel will be the big FA signing and any other significant changes come through trades to try and stay salary neutral. I'm basing this on absolutely nothing but my opinion, so odds of it being an accurate prediction aren't that great Anyone that knows more about the Sox organization have a feeling about this?

I agree. I would much rather move Konerko than Lee. Lee is more athletic and a better hitter. Plus I think 1B can be filled easier than an OF spot. It may sound crazy, but Gload has shown some ability to hit major league pitching. None of the current OF candidates (Borchard, Escobar, and (ahem) Perez) have done that. I can understand people who think the risk would be worth it, because Johnson was outstanding last year. But it's a pretty big gamble that his knee and 40 year old body will hold up (I know...Clemens and Maddux are old too, but as far as I know they don't have their knee shot up before each start). And it's a one year thing where the Sox again get an older player for younger ones. It may be irrational, but I hate to see the Sox make moves that remind me of the late 90s Baltimore Orioles. Most importantly, I don't think that trade alone (or with the signing of Vizquel) even makes the Sox a better team than the Twins. The lineup will look lousy (Ordonez and Lee gone and Thomas not sure to be healhty). And there's still no 5th starter and the bullpen is shaky. I think they could improve the team just as much by simply signing a decent starting pitcher and reliever and keeping Lee.

That makes it all the more mystifying to me why the #1 offseason priority seems to be Vizquel. I know Harris has an apalling lack of power, seemed timid at the plate sometimes, and doesn't seem to know how to steal at the ML level. But he did actually improve last season and he's young enough that he can still get better. And at the plate he's not that much worse than Vizquel in OBP (most important stat for a 1 or 2 hitter I think). Meanwhile the Sox are content to start a .200 hitting catcher and Grilli every 5th day.

I think Valentin could very well be better on D than Cabrera. Given the fielding pcts. I think Valentin boots maybe 8 more balls than Cabrera in the same number of chances. Valentin has better range and a better arm (defensive stats aren't great, but zone rating isn't bad and Valentin was a lot better), and I can easily believe that he would turn at least 8 more hits into out than Cabrera. I'm not trolling for an argument here, but why do you think Cabrera has better glove?

I agree that the Sox shouldn't undervalue Lee. He's not perfect, but he's a big-time major league hitter and those are hard to find. He posted the 6th best OPS by an outfielder in the AL last season. He's not a GG OF, but he is not a liability in the field. If anyone wtached the Red Sox in the post-season, they saw what liabilities in the OF look like. And he's been pretty healthy, or at least played through injuries. Just becuase he's not a GG OF and doesn't walk quite as much as I would like, I think trading him for anything other than great value would be a mistake. I think he is the kind of hitter you can build a lineup around (not an all-star, but very solid). And as for the posts that insinuate he doesn't have heart and isn't a grinder, I don't think it's true. Of everyone on the team, he the one seems to go on in hardest to break up double plays, he's obviously worked hard on his defense, and despite some mental lapses he seems to me to care about the games (he's the one who reminded Manuel to pinch-run in one of the games in MN). I'm baffled why Everett has a reputation as a "grinder" when he obviously let himself get out of shape last year, and told the Twins 1B that the Sox "didn't have it" in 2003. I think Lee's attitude is fine.