BrandoFan

OPS (especially with RISP) is the best way to measure a player's offensive worth, not average or homers. I am sorry but Thome's 7-year OPS average is roughly a 1000 where as Paulie's 4 years average is 830. Even last year. which was Paulie's 2nd best, Thome beat him by a WHOPPING 300 OPS points which is more than TWICE the difference between Valetin and Clayton. Stadium arguements are moot because Thome drives them out ANYWHERE and because the Cell is a bonafied hitter's park with fences brought in. If you want to make an arguement that Paullie is NOT at his prime yet and that he is three times as cheap (Sox are strapped for cash) as the Sox killer Thome- fine...It's just that to unequivocally say that Konerko is better is short-sighted if not disingenuous. He isn't even close yet IMO. Ditto Giambi. I even like Helton much better than Paulie at this point. Palmeiro at 38 is twice the 1bman Paulie is to be frank. My two cents.

If it's 925-950 OPS All-Star Konerko circa first half of '02 who is making under 5 Mill and plays solid defense and is the consciousness of the team, then I would take him over 15-18 Mill a year monsters like Giambi and Thome any day. Especially considering he is only 26 and isn;t in his prime yet. If it's 740 OPS Konerko crica second half last year (granted bla bla bla injurycakes) who is prone to whine to the press and reportedly wants 7-8 mill a year, it's much tougher, you know... I mean, it's one thing for the Mets to be paying 8 Mill to Robbie Alomar (defensve wiz; great baserunner %-wise; best offensive years easily comprable to Konerko's); quite another for the money-tight Sox to be paying basically for his bat; as much as I;ve come to enjoy his fastball-hitting, with Daubach, Borchard and Valenzula/Fernandez in the wings, he might just be expendable, IMO. Unless he builds on his first half of 2002, he is a goner. ETA: Not only is Konerko not in Alomar's league as far as base-running is concerned (hey, Borchard doesn't steal bases either, but at least he doesn't clog them), he is one of the slowest players in all of baseball. He cost us some big runs last year. I can live with that if he is a 950 OPS dude, but in order to do that he needs to improve his eye (30 extra walks a year would do the trick) first and foremost. He certainly has the batspeed to get it done.

I didn't even think about it, witesoxfan. Good point. Come to think of it, he didn't have to face Pedro and Drelo (Derek Lowe), hehe. And yeah, Tigers, Royals, Tribe absolutely blow and Twins only scare Sox players who mysteriously fall apart at the Met. And we know Daubach thrives under pressure. Reagrdless, if other Sox starters play great, Daubach is not needed. If they don't, he could come in and do some damage. Win-win situation. Dude, your salary analysis truly scares me. Thomas has to hit like hell to justify 8 Mill and that's fine by me. Ditto for Lee and Konerko. Let's hope cheap young'ins lie Borachrd, Rowand, Jumenez, Crede, Garland, Wright, Munoz, Rauch and Olivo come through, 'cause we in DEEP effin' trouble after 2003 season. I hope that the combination of Sox winning 95 games, All-Star Game, Cell renovations, smart marketing and transportation accomodations (they were talking about building a Metro stop and/or a shuttle of sorts as well as doing something about the major routes in the near future...before cheap bastard Reiny folded!) will bring a TON of Sox fans back (they are out there no doubt) as well as a bunch of fairweather ones. We NEED 2.4-2.5 M. butts in the seats for Reiny to approve the requisite 65-70+ mill payroll. Absolutely imperative. Of course, ideally, I would have loved a lakeside downtown state-of-the-art stadium build, one that would make us the Midwest Yankees...but that's to much to expect from the Dork. *sigh* This quote makes my blood boil. God, how I hate this patronizing and conniving f*ck. No wonder he literally drove 60% of Sox fans out..

I have to part-disagree, elrockinMT. As much as I love and respect Jose for his on and off field contribution, I would probably do the Rollins trade straight up. If Jose was perfectly healthy all the time ala Tejada or Vizquel and/or was making Sandy Alomar money, then I'd think about it. Of course, this is probably the last year in which Jose is making more than 3 mill a year and the last year Rollins is dirt cheap (he is arbitration eligible after '03; if he has another All-Star appearance this year, he will be asking for Jose Valentin money, more if his agent is Scott Boras LOL!). However, Rauch is a HOF (meaning in the same category as Mark Prior) caliber talent, health issues notwistading. Forget about Kip Wells- if this kid ever get back into 93-95 fastball zone ((which looks like it's 98-100 considering his leg and arm span, his off speed arsenal and intimidation factor), bring his awesome curve, continues to hone slider and change and gets 400 innings under his belt...lights out. Rollins's questionable potential (as he puts on more weight and gets more money his defensive range will decrease and his 45 SB days will magically disappear, trust me on this) and even more questioble hitting ability (680 OPS- are you effin' kidding me?! This isn't 1963) are NOT worth Rauch alone. He isn't worth a healthy Malone and Sanders either, IMO, but you have to give up in order to get something... Our farm system is not nearly as good at this moment as some give it credit for, though, to be fair, there has been a whole lot of promotions in the recent years. We have some talented people in A (Cotts, Honel, Webster, Ring, Stumm) and AA (Malone, Diaz, Fernandez) and AAA (Borchard and Almonte and Valenzula even), but none of them are ready to contribute until 2005. We need to focus on the likes of Lee and Konerko and Jimenez and Rowand and hope and pray that Reindorf has enough sense to expand payroll to 65-70 Mill if we want to compete past 2003...

Dauabch signing gives us depth and options. Championship teams always have those. 1. He is playoff and pennant tested and has been very clutch as any Red Sox fan will tell you. It's important not only because he will be oinch hitting, but also because outside of Valentin we don;thave anyone like that. I don't know how Rowand, Borchard, Olivo and Crede will respond under immense pressure; I seem to recall that outside of Ray anf JV, everybody else shut down during 2000 playoffs. Definately a welcome addition. 2. In his first year in the bigs, Daubach posted 922 OPS. After his sophomore slump and subsequent benching, he still showed he could produce (again clutch numbers have to taken in consideration). Just look at his overall RBI/ab ratio and prorate it over 600+ at bats and you will get 4 consecutive seasons at or near 100 RBIs, which is more impressive considering he accomplished it out of 6th and 7th spot. If Lee/Pauly/Hurt struggle or get injured he will gladly fill in and Sox will probably not even miss a beat. After 2003, Maggs becomes a 14 Mill player and PK/Hurt/Lee might get as high as 8+ Millin in arbitration. If Colon is resigned, we definately lose at least one of them...that's where Daubach might be useful until Borchard is ready or even after that. He might just be our LF/1B/DH and 6th spot hitter for years to come. Who knows. 3. Fenway vs. Cell: Since he is a lefty bat with pop, that 20-30+ feet diffrerence in most of RF and RCF may just alow him to improve on his numbers. I think that outside of Olivo (5 tool catcher who is improving rapidy), Jimenez and Felix Diaz (his health worries me a bit), Daubach pick up might be the best thing KW has done as GM. He certainly would add to Spring Training competition big time if anything else. Light the fire under a lot of people's asses. Off-topic: Aaron Rowand is listed as 6-1 on ESPN. Does anyone know if it's a mistake? I think he is more like 5'10'

Don't get me wrong, Chisoxfn- for all the clutch defense Jose displays and for the DP he turns, he is still nowhere near the Gold Glove level. All I am saying is that the defensive gap between Jose and Rollins or Clayton is definately narrow-er than the error totals would indicate. He is still "decent" at best when healthy, nothing more. Giving props where they due, as it were. I'd like to see Rollins play 3b while we're at it. ETA: Does anyone rememer a play last year in which Jose actually beat a perfectly routine force out at second base off the bat of Maggs or Hurt (they were safe), in the process almost breaking his leg? He didn't have a prayer; as soon as the lazy 2B SOB decided he didn't have to rush, Jose stuck it to him. That was amazing- vintage Manos hustle!! How do you put a statistical value on something like that?

Thanks for the kind words, Chisoxfn. You guys (I remember "Rio" as a mere poster from the amazing 2000 campaign which surprised the HELL out of all of us and which, in turn, led to two of the most frustrating years of pure underachievement in Sox recent history) seem to have a sweet and smooth site running. Congrads and kudos. Jose? "Intriguing" comes to mind, but then again most scouts had him as a "5-tool guy who will frustrate the socks off you" way before I even knew his name. Maturation and change of scenery (to say nothing of good health) allowed him to become, basically, a better player in 2000. Next two years, while not as impressive (same can be said of the whole friggin' team, though), also showed that he can sustain offensive production (28 homers in 123 games in 2001? Tejada/Garciparra territory) . Now that he is a full-time SS again, the key factor is "health". Plain and simple. He has been working hard in the off-season with a personal trainer on flexibility-strenghtening program. Hope it works- nothing worse than Jose having a 3 RBI night, then see him cringing and having spasms and having Sox shut him down for the next 2 games. It can't be good for offensive timing/confidence (the swinging at curves in the dirt while ahead in the count you mentioned sometimes had this stench of desperation and forcing it on his part. His walk total was pathetic two months through the season). If Thomas (in '98/99) and Konerko (second half '02) were allowed to blame the significant decline in production on recurring foot problems, why can't a SS (an infinetely more athletic position) like Jose be extended a courtesy of benefit of the doubt? I think he will get better defensively (ton of DP, difficult "saves", etc), but I agree with you that the lapses in concentration and occasional errant throws will probaby remain for he is the kinda dude who forces the issue big time. Still, don't you agree that if Jose-Jimenez duo turns the most DPs in the league and Jose keeps error count under 25 (assuming range/cannon are still there), it would mean he ought to be considered a decent SS? It think so. I would never dream his error total dip into single digits...lol His age? Not as big factor as it would be for, say, Ichiro or Ricky Hendersen simply because he has always relied on smarts and instincts rather than pure athleticism and speed. I've seen him score from 1st on a single that Mike Cameron or Erstad couldn't score on or take an extra base simply using his superb vision and anticipation timing (espcially when D-man is slow getting the ball back in). That kind of thing sticks with you deep into 30's. As long as he can avoid pulls and strains (Larry Walker and Barry Bonds who are much older and much heavier men have managed. Why not Jose?) and all that, he should be with the Sox for another 2-3 years assuming there's a pay cut involved. He did give the Sox a discount in 2001 afterall. In any case, 2003 promises to be one helluva season. Cheers.

Valentin haters need to try and look beyond the numbers; it's getting rediculous when baseball people continually refer to "how many homers/what's the average/how many errors" when discussing a players's total worth. Here are some points that often get overlooked. 1. Leadership. Once we are in a pennant race and Frank is pouting and Maggs is closed in within himsrelf, you can always count on Jose to galvanise the ballclub, rally the team in meetings and keep up the spirits in the clubhouse (recall ESPN mic'd him to a great effect). Does it mean that this "intangible quality" alone will win 10 more games? Of course not!! We still need to pitch and hit to beat the Twins...but it will go a long way (as coaches or anyone who has ever played a team sport will attest) as far as keeping things loose and preventing mental and otherwise funks of OTHER players...which, in turn, might ultimately translate into a few extra wins, who's to say. Overall, not a bad thing to have even if you can't exactly measure it. 2. Baserunning. Granted Jose seemed to have regressed seriously ever since that hamstring pull early in 2001, he did go 19-2 in 2000, which incidentally %-wise is BETTER than Rollins' 31-13 in 2002 (if a player is to be credited with an extra base, he should be reprimanted for CS because of it's inning-kiling nature). Still, you CAN'T look at his 3 out of 6 SB last year as proof that he is slow; besides being clearly safe on one of the attempts (4 out of 6 ain't bad), he showed remarkable skill in taking an extra base when ball one-bounced and rolled close to a catcher (myself witnessed him taking TWO 3rd bases one ONE gamer at Comisley with less than two outs!), which of course means he DIDN'T get a steal credit, but essencially put his team in a great scoring chance. I reiterate: not everything shows up in stats column, so USE YOUR EYES. While Jose is not an excellent base-taker he was in 2000 (1st- to-3rd, 1st-to-home, dirt bounce non-steals, straights steals, clutch steals, etc) when he was HEALTHY for once in his frustrating career, he can certainly surprise us in 2003. Hawk certainly couldn't shut up about how JV is "the smartest BR he has seen recently", which has to be more than just homerism. I can certainly envision 12-4 season if his groin holds up (npi). Still not in Rollins's league, but not as bad as people seem to think...Aging? If Vaizquel can steal 18 bases at the age of 36 and a half, so can Jose at mere 33+. EDITED TO ADD: if you check team steals for 2002, guess where ALL 8 playoff teams will end up...that's right BASESTEALING is overrated in modern game- even in NL. I kid you not. And White Sox aren't exactly hit-'n'run oriented team if you get my drift. 3. Defense. There has been numerous analysisi done by pretty credible people (one being one poster ESPNJOHN1 who sure knows how to break down the numbers) to prove that when one considers how many runs/games Jose's 2000 36 errors actually cost (amazingly not many due to his ever-praised clutch abilities) versus how much he saved with timely defense and underrated range (keeping the ball in the infield with runner at second poised to score on a real single), not to mention the DP's turned...he actually comes off as a--GRASP!--an adequate/serviceable everyday (key for him) shortstop. Not in Vizquel/Rollins's league but not NEARLY as bad as he is made out to be. (For instance, his 4 horrible errors in Oakland early that year costs the Sox exactly...ZERO runs that game. Not always as lucky, but still...). There is also something to be said about his groin/hamstring injuries and being jerked between CF/LF/3B/SS/bench (because of Claytonfool no less! ), no wonder Jose didn't really excel at SS in 2001-02. Hence me using 2000 year as a more or less full-time player sample, a crucial distinction, IMO, when it comes to Jose (making tough plays but booting or throwing away truly routine ones points to issues of focus and fundamentals as opposed to the lack of defensive talent/athleticism). I am going to preditct that if Jose is healthy and has JM's confidence as a full time player, he will surprise a lot of people, chiefly among the Sox fans. 50-50 odds. Hitting. This is my biggest BEEF by far; I will defer to his injury/platoon issues as being barriers which should not be simply overlooked: the former tends to f*ck with MECHANICS of your swing, the letter with TIMING. I am not making excuses, just stating the obvious...Still his RBI/at-bats ratio is MIGHTY impressive when compared to other non-middle of the line-up SS out there and his clutch hitting (outside of that awful 0 for 6 trip to Baltimore, his RISP OPS is nearly 1200, which is frightening good) has been one of the best in AL. Give Jose 550-575 at-bats, I almost GUARANTEE you he will give you 820-850 OPS...and I DON'T even take into account the fact that with Jimenez and Magglio sandwitching him, he will get more fastballs, which he LOVES and with a lot more people on base in general, it may be the first 30hr/100rbi of his career. Hell, he may even walk a bit more as he did in 2001, though I wouldn't count on it. I truly feel that he is a different player than he was with Milwakee in a way that Sammy Sosa and Lois Gonzalez were different playes once they turned 30 and more mature. Therefore, I don't care that "his career average is .247". I know I have seen him play (first time I saw him in 2000 I didn't even know who he was- he hit two doubles and had 3 more lineouts to each of the outfielders, lol). Last year, for instance, when he got a hold of more consecutive starts he brought his average from .241 to as high as .265 in the matter of 2-3 weeks. Then Roycemania resumed. Thanks Jerry... Bottomline: Jose Valentin should be a BIG part of the 2003 team and is a pretty effin' GOOD (I said good-to-very-good, not great) player overall when healthy. Ignoring Rollins's age and salary (I know it's hard, but we are talking about 2003, possibly the ONLY chance we get to make it into WS if...Colon leaves, Hurt, Lee regress, Rauch sucks and 13.5 mill a year Maggs, well, um...man, I need a drink and i'm underaged), there is no way he is a "better player" ALL aformentioned things considered. Not that future-oriented Phillies ever considered the trade in the first place End of Rant.