BrandoFan
He'll Grab Some Bench-
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Everything posted by BrandoFan
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Me too! Not that way, but you know...Other than Burhle and Rowand making HUGE strides in AA ball (I remember Aaron going form an unremarkable AA player to a AAA All-Star/September call-up success in one friggin' year. Work ethic paid off.) , Olivo has been most impressive. A catcher who is only starting to figure it out and who can already walk, hit for some avrage, power, steal 35+ bases (over a full season in AA) and has an arm already as good as declining Pudge...what's not to love. Have you actually see his homer of a tough Andy Petite? He hit a bomb to opposite field. The only out he made was when he went for too much trying too pull a 3-1 fatball on the hands against a tuogh Yankee reliver in his debut. Olive, along with Jimenez, Rowand and Crede will turn some heads in the bigs this year. I have never been as excited about Greg Norton, Jeff Abbott, Snopek, etc, but these guys have real (albeit different) tools.
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You guys missed my point: sometimes it takes just one tiny swing and approach adjustment for a player to get his confidence and his swing on. Crede looked lost and dominated in his first 30 atbats (something like 5 singles) and then dominated himself. It was unexpected and awesome. Crede is only a year younger than Carlos, too.
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He has old Sosa-ian swing: long and extremely quick. The reason he only hit 26 homers is that he has holes in it and because he doesn't see the pitch often until it's too late and because he has little discipline. Not because his batspeed is "average". Sandy Alomar and Frank Thomas have average batspeed. Carlos has excellent one. With maturity he showed last year and with a bettter eye/anticipation, he will put the batspeed to great use. While Maggs's batspeed is not slower than that of Carlos or Konerko, his total swing itself is shorter and more economic and, when combined with his eye, makes for a better contact. He is also not as strong as you give him credit for; the reason he has wrists problems is the same reason Paul Konerko and Garciappara will have them too: namely, their wrists are thin, almost girlishly so. (Constrast Delgado or Tejada or Sheffield and their "steel wrists" that geenrate tremendeous batspeed. ). There is (much) more to being a great hitter than batspeed and it took Carlos 3 years to learn that. Have you asdked yourself why Manny Ramirez, Edgar, Larry Walker (in his prime) and lately Lois Ganzalez are/were such great hitters? They have excellent vision and technique and don't get rattled under pressure and don't expand their strike-zone. Combine that with very good batspeed and you have HOF caliber hitter. Heck, Barry Bonds and Canseco had struggled for many years all the while Albert Belle and Frank Thomas with their pretty average batspeed excelled?
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All CLee haters and doubters, recall how plain pathetic and overmatched Joe Crede looked at the plate in his first 30 or so at-bats in 2002, sending the "here we go again: another overhyped Sox prospect" chills down many a spine...before busting out to the point where he effortless homered off Clemens and Derek Lowe. Sometimes one adjustment makes all the difference in the world. This also makes me want to give Rowand and Borchard more time. Joes and Jons need to step up for Sox to make noise
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Especially as a 6th place hitter (I mean, I could understand someone drawing a ton of "undeserved" walks in front of ARod, Palmeiro, Irod and Greer...) on a non-competing team (less reason to be afraid to pitch to as far as opposing pitchers' mentality is concerned). I mean, Clayton and MJ and Rowand aren't that scary, are they? Lemme guess, Baggio, the only sentence you read (and decided to grace with a reply) was the one where I compare Carlos to Sosa. Nice to know. BTW it was obvious I meant "as good a hitter...", which is true. Just open your eyes and watch Carlos take the ball of his shoe tips and hit it 400 feet to LF.
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All of you are making good points. Rehab could be one of the most painful things a person can go through and when you multiply it by four and when you have a high pain sensitivity, I can understand a youngter getting anxious and overprotective, especially if one of the causes of injury were improper mechanics (thank you Sox minor league system and San Francisco!) and pitching-through pain (thank you KW and a AA pitching coach). The reason I am more pissed off than usual about this is that even if Barcelo's first operation didn't allow him to be a great starting pitcher in the majors (like you said, some guys' arms just can;t handle it), he could have been a lights out closer. I've seen him throw as a 20yo and 21 yo who was relatively healthy (as healthy as a power pitcher can be only 2 years after TJ). Granted, it's very rare for a power pitcher with only 2 some years of proball to have anything in the way of breaking pitches or control, Lorenzo was AWESOME. I saw him pinpoint spot two consecuve 97 mph on the outside corner in the 7th (!!!) inning to go up 0-2 on a batter and then finish him off with an amazing (movement, location wise, esp. after the heat) hook... Like I said, if Barcelo was healthy, with a couple of Garland-esque years of learning at the bigs, he would proabably be Pedro Lite, with little more velocity and not as good a change.. Yes, IMO, he had a potential to be that good.
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Now that's just moronic. Plain and simple. His defense, admittedly not his strong suit (if it was, he would be worth more than 2.3 Million in 2002 don't you think) doesn't cost that many runs compared to other LF's and you have a better case proving to me that Foulke is a terrible closer because he blew that crucial and unfortunate game at Twinckie Dome in 2001, and that he'll always be a "loser"...Somehow you are forgetting how many games Carlos won for us late in ballgames (homer against Rivera in the 9th? Game-ending GS against Cubbies? 7 Rbi's against Cubbies to avoid an embarassing sweep? I could go on and on; the only player who has come through more is Manos). Two can play the "let's use episodic evidence to support our personal little bias" game, Baggio. The fact of the matter is, Carlos at 25 is as good as Sammy Sosa and Maggs were at that age; Carlos has as good a pure batspeed as either and is physically even more gifted (bigger, greater arm expensions). It's been no secret that his eye/mental maturity was a problem, but, guess what, thats why they use words like "raw", "youngster", "potential", etc. Fact of the matter is Carlos was a 35 walk-a-year player and with mere 15 walks through almost 3 months in 2002 (Corey Patterson land), he suddenly started to draw 4-pitch walks and lay off sliders in the dirt. The result? 60 walks in 85 games (to say nothing of 1000+ OPS!) as a 6th spot hitter, which would prorate to 115 over a full season, and which would lead the team by far. While it's too early to tell if he can sustain it over a full season, I am duly impressed if not totally and pleasantly surprised. For a big man, he is cetainly very mobile. His 34 SB/13 CS before last year would attest. He's also very adept at moving from 1st to 3rd and 1s/2nd to home which is all you can ask for. Him getting picked off at 3rd was unfortunate indeed, but thene again so was Graffinator forgeting to tag a runner/step on a base against the Cubbies. Freakie play, that's all. Could he regress? Of course! But then he could die of a heart attack, too. I will take the odds that Carlos is finally becoming what every Sox fan thought he'd be eventually when we saw him hit a grandslam his first ML at bat. If L.Gonzo and Sosa and even Valentin finally took a step up when they were at or over 30, I think a 26yo Carlos is worth a gamble...esp. considering Borchard is NOWHERE near ready and Vlad Guerrero and Giles ain't comin' to the South Side any time soon. And I would wait until I pronounce Dunn to be a HOF player just yet. Speaking of Grand Slams, guess who has lead the team in the last 3 years? OT: I spoke to his girlfriend before 2001 season (she was at the restaurant I worked at) and she is HOT, people. Maybe a little plump, but just an amazing Latino complextion. Very nice to boot and would go near-hysterical when I would refer to CLee as "Caballo", telling me that Carlos has this ritual...Met Maggs too but that's another story.
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That's not true: Griffey's '93 and '94 numbers were better OPS-wise, to say nothing of of awesome '96 and '97. Also, his 98 and 99 seasons easily match up with Maggs's last season, and just as easily beat anything Maggs has done between 1999-2001. So, in essence, Griffey had 6 MVP caliber seasons while Maggs had only one, and I am not even factoring in Grifffey's advantage in baserunning and even bigger advantage in defense (Maggs was a good outfielder in 99 and 00 in RF, but Griffey was a HOF defensive player for 12 years in CF no less. Can't compare the two). I love Maggs and he (along with Buerhle, Rauch, Honel and Borchard) is probably the last person on the Sox that I want to see traded...but if Griffey showed signs of Bonds-esque revitalization, I would have to give him advantage. Old Griffey is easily worth 12 million, but old Maggs is not worth 14 unless he cracks 1000 OPS. IMO.
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With an option for 1018-27 naturally.
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Fair enough.
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They may piss you and me off, but the fact of the matter is most HOF players aren't all sunshine-n-smiles. Most people aren't, period. Nodoby likes Albert Belle and Barry Bonds, but you can't ignore their on-filed contributions. If you don't want to get Griffey because he is lazy, declining, injury-prone or combination of all 3, that's fine. "Selfish and arrogant" arguement doesn't and shouldn't hold up as far as winning (care to remember when the Sox last won the series, Mac?) is concerned. Maybe that's just me. I despise Tiger "I am a cheap, arrogant, apathetic and racist prick and proud of it" Woods, but his talent is undeniable.
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\ 2000 is different because pitchers started to jam him in in 98-99 where he wouldn't get anything on the outer part of the plate on 2-0, 3-1 counts as was the case pre-98. In 97 (also my first year following Sox) I think 12-15 homers were hit right of center. Correct me if I am wrong. He definately lost some batspeed because he couldn't adjust as easily and was missing a lot of fastballs right there.
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Are Hurt's 2002 struggles mental (he is one sensitive slugger!) or physical in nature? While it was clear that his bat speed wasn't there most of the time (to be fair, Frank has never relied on pure batspeed ala Sheffield, Piazza, Griffey, Carlos Lee, Konerko, etc...instead using his superb hand-eye coordination, anticipation, pitcher and- strike zone knowledge, something that, unlike super batspeed and hyper quick reaction, doesn't dissappear until 38-40 as Harold Baines, Edgar among others have proven), what strick me the most is that Frank didn't hit a lot of homers to the opposite field where almost half of his homers used to be hit. What's wrong with the big man? How come someone like Thome, Larry Walker and Lois Gonzalez are thriving and Thomas sucks? We need the big man to be, well, BIG this year and few years after that. He is only 34.
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I just wants to say that Maggs, along with Manos and hard-nosed Rowand, is my favorite White Sox player. While he is no Barry Bonds, he has just began his prime years and 1000 OPS/140 RBI season is certainly within his grasp. He is also an adequate fielder and base-runner who is making 9 million (can't say the same thing about Manny Ramirez who for all his HOF hitting ability is a 20 million a year D-effin'-H). Dunn and Borchard is a pretty muich a wash with Dunn being better NOW, but Borchard having a slighter higher ceiling (remember he was only a PART-TIME player in HS and college and I wouldn't be surprised if we don't see the REAL SuperJoe until 2005). Griffey is a quintessencial franchise player who will probably bring extra 7-10,000 fans per (to say nothing of national coverage and merchandising!) just because he is "Ken Griffey", so that kinda settles the salary arguement. What kind of injuries are those anyway? If' it was a dislocated throwing shoulder/mupltiple tear knee thing, then it's a big concern. If it's a strained hamstring, I am not as worried about long-term. Griffey is signed LONG-term at a discount (for a former 5 tool MVP player), which is VERY good, but at 33, considering his god-awful work ethic and injury issues (full recovery from injuries requires a LOT of patience and guts), his best days may be behind him. He certainly has no longer an advange base-running wise, so his defense must be Gold Gove in order to ofset the difference in offense (I don't think you will argue that Maggs is looking better and better while Griffey's last impressive season was two years ago. Both players are HOF hitting talents and I might just make a trade straight up after 2003. But not really. I agree with Chisoxfn, this trade is intriguing if anyhing else. Each team is taking on a lot of risk and is gaining something while losing something else. Slightly favors thw Sox...unless Carlos's second half wasn't a fluke (I am betting it wasn't but you never know, esp. with Carlos), in which case slight edge goes to Cincinatti.
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Average is not all that important; Jim Thome (not to mention Jose Valentin's .249, lol) is normally the best example. Bonds, too, only hit .262 in '99 if I recall, yet his 1000+ OPS were HOF numbers. At the same time, Ichiro's .350 means jack 'cause it's mostly infield singles (exaggeration)...Singleton, too hit .301 in '99, but he couldn't walk to save his life and sluggin' was subpar...And RBI's? They depend on the amount of at-bats (remember walk=no at-bat; injuries and missed games too reduce RBI chances) as well as whether your teammates are on base; without them even a homer only brings one RBI... You must agree that Bonds's 106 RBIs in 2000 and 110 last year were not indicative of his superman production. Sosa's 108 ribbies in 2002 also did not reflect his ability. Or would you say Konerko had a better season because of his avg. and RBI's? Sure, OPS sometimes may not be enough- if players A and B both have 850 OPS, other stats must be considered. I would look at the RISP OPS and RBI/ab numbers to determine clutchability; after that I might consider quasi-intangibles like dimensions and wind factor of a stadium (Enron vs. Safeco) and line-up protection (Barry Bonds numbers look more impressive than, say, those of Gonzalez circa 1999 because Gonzo played on awesome-hitting Rangers team which included healthy Irod, Palmeiro, Clark, Caminiti and Greer, though to be fair to Juan Gone, along with Manny Ramirez and Glarraga he was the RBI machine in those days) If a player A was very clutch (like Valentin whose very solid for a SS 790 OPS doesn't tell the whole story) or played on an awful hitting team (Sosa) and Player B benefited from his teammates and/or stadium (Dante Bichette in Colorado in late 90's) or mainly beefed up his numbers in meaningless situations (Albert Belle comes to mind in '98), then players A should be considered a superior hitter despite similar OPS #s. Also, OBP is more important for players like Ichiro and Slugg is for players like Hurt. Still, OPS is IMO the closest to ideal method of gauging a hitter's worth. ...he leaves the Sox because A) the team did not make playoffs in a crucial 2003 season in no small part thanks to his UN-realized potential, prompting JR to fire sale...or B) he demands 7-8 million for 4 straight 830-850-type seasons which Sox can easily replace with 800 OPS-type seasons but from MINIMUM wage players (say Valenzula, etc), epsecially if A) comes true. See, the power of SPECULATION and WISHFUL THINKING works both ways
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What about slugging? His 664 were whopping 200 points higher than Konerko...It's all about OPS anyway. Last year he missed 20 games, so injury has to be taken into account as well. Homers are overrated anyway; Delgado is in the same hitting group as A.Rod, Giambi, Sosa, Ramirez, Guerrero, Helton, Walker and maybe now Maggs. Konerko is simply NOWHERE near that level. He need to step up BIG TIME to be mentioned in the same sentence as Delgado, who with the Sox (one of the best hitting lineups in the majors) protection, could be even better theoretically. For what's worth, Delgado is a slighly better hitter than Bonds was at the same juncture of his carrer.
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Really? So if Delgado only cost 8 mill as opposed to 18 you wouldn't do the trade? Common, it's not like we are talking about Tony Clark or Fred McGriff here, whitesox247. Paul's potential and leadership are nice to have and all that (although the latter os overrated; whining is NOT equal to chemistry), but Delgado's best year is amazing 300 OPS points higher than Paul's. With shorter fences at the Cell, Delgado is an automatic MVP. are you saying delgados gonna have more homers? well whos the one that got to the home run derby last year I presume you're joking, right? Stick Delgado in our lineup and our stadium, and he hits 45 homers (if you must) and walks 150 times.
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Really? So if Delgado only cost 8 mill as opposed to 18 you wouldn't do the trade? Common, it's not like we are talking about Tony Clark or Fred McGriff here, whitesox247. Paul's potential and leadership are nice to have and all that (although the latter os overrated; whining is NOT equal to chemistry), but Delgado's best year is amazing 300 OPS points higher than Paul's. With shorter fences at the Cell and the general lift in spirits that often accompanies change in scenery (for one, don't tell me Latino comminuty in Torono is anything like it is in Chicago), Delgado is a near-automatic MVP. ETA: Just for future reference, am I the only person who uses OPS and RBI/ab to gauge a hitter's productivity as opposed to average and homers?
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For all it's worth, he cost Mike Sirotka a shutout tie with Pedro at Fenway...There had to be others, but I also remember that considering his 36 errors led the league, the actual amount of games his defense cost/saved actually put him in the middle of the pack, which is where Royce " Super SS Savior!" Clayton was that year.
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Does anyone know his status? Is he still with organization? I ask because 3-4 years ago, this kid was the most talented pitcher prospect in our ogranization if not whole baseball. I mean, his fastball was 95-98 mph with some bite (doctors promised it may go into triple digits three years after the TJ he underwent in '97), he also had a good curve, slider and a decent (for a tall, inexperienced power pitcher anyway) change-up. The best thing about him was not only his raw stuff and ceiling, but also his control and poise for a 21yo; he even got to show some of it late in 2000 with the Sox (8 walks in his first 40 innings in the majors!), although signs of re-injury were already showing by then. And did anyone see the size of his hands/fingers? They were HUGE and if you think Pedro can do freaky things with a baseball, you shoulda seen Barcelo throw his slider...Outside of Mark Prior and John Rauch, I never seen as purely talented (pure skills + mental maturity) a pitcher. What a waste that the Sox ran him into the ground. Same as Malone and Stumm I guess. Does anyone know if he will ever recover from his surgery(ies)? What's the prognosis/organization consensus? Anything?
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Cop'la points: 1. The Dork won't spend more than 65 Million in the All-Star year unless there is some SERIOUS influx of fannies in the seats this year. If Sox don't start running away with the division early, there won't be a requisite 30,000 a game average and Reiny will make a White Flag II at the end of the season if the Sox are not contending. Do you know what I mean by "fire sale"? I mean this: Maggs is traded for ton of prospects, Thomas is let go, Colon is let go, Gordon and White are let go, Jose Valentin is let go, one of Lee/Konerko goes...Can you look me in the eye and tell me Borachard is ready to be a dominant clean up hitter? I shutter to even think what would happen if we don't make it in 2003...Forget dominating the division in the next 10 years; Sox might become the Tigers of 21st century. Grim. 2. If Lee gets 6 Mill in arbitration, that means he had a very good season (850-875 OPS), which ain't that bad. Manos not worth 5 Million in arbt.? If he goes 25/85 and steals 14 bases, which is VERY doable, he will get 5 Million (option picked up or Mariners/Angels/D-Backs/Cards/etc picking him as a FA) with his EYES closed. Who's 35? He just turned 33, and a non-speed burner like him doesn't just decline. If Vizquel is hanging strong at almost 37, I think Jose will manage. 3. If Colon has a Cy Young caliber year and Sox make noise in the playoffs, Sox will lock him up. 3/30 sounds reasonble, but it might be as high as 3/36+. Maggs stays at 14, Carlos at 6 and Paulie 6-7 if he has another very good year. Hurt situation is interesting because of all deferred money, but he can't settle for anything less than 6-7 Mill if he has a 900+ OPS season, which is what he needs to do in the first place for Sox to dominate the division. If Harris and Jimenez have breakthroughs, Jose is gone. If not, his 5 Mill option is back. Assuming John Garland is arbitration eligible after 2003 (coupla a mill) and so is Marte (3-4 Mill if he pitches anything like he did in '02) I think...With Buerhle getting a new deal, payroll might go as high as 75-80 Million when it's all said and done. 55-60 Mill is unrealistic IMO; it's either 40 or 70+... And for COL don't pencil Borchard as a contributing, starting OF- he hasn't proven jack yet. The hole in his swing makes Brooks Kieshnick look like Ichiro. Don't count on him until 2005.
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I don't know if it's worth it. I'd hate to see Lee and Konerko turn all stars as Blue Jays. We also lose Colon de facto since Delgado is making 18+ mill and Lee and Konerko are making less than 10. I guess it comes down to trust issue: I just don't trust Thomas to be his old self. I also don't trust Garland to carry this team. Not yet. Ditto for Wright, Rauch, Crede, Olivo, Borchard, Jimenez and Rowand. Sorry, I don't. Potential is not quite the same thing as production and all those mentioned are too young and or inconsistent to warrant vote of confidence at this point, IMO. Maggs, Colon and a 23yo Buerhle (I am concerned as it is with him being overworked in the last 2 years) are the closest we have to franchise players and team-carriers; at least you could say that Lee along with Konerko and Manos are proven. Are you sure you want to stake 2003 season on the youngins? Sure, we gain Delgado, who is top 10 hitters in all of baseball, but we lose young, improving and relatively affordable all stars in Lee, Konerko and Colon. (We also potentially lose Maggs, Daubach and Hurt in 2004 if we're not competitive in 2003.) Not worth the risk. When Reiny find out the price tag on Delgado, he will kill Kenny. Maybe I am wrong.
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Colon ...if and only if the money is close (let's say, Colon asks for 3/28 and Konerko 3/25) or if he proves this year that his dominant 2002 AL performance wasn't an abberation. 21-7, 2.95 should do the trick. If, on the other hand, Konerko settles for 3/17 and Colon demands 3/35+, then it al depends on actual performance. Id Colon cannot keep ERA under 3.50 in 2003, he is not worth the ace money, not from the Sox's financial standpoint anyway. If Konerko has his first half 2002 #s (All-Star level of 925-950+ OPS) then he is worth it especially if Borchard and Valenzula are not ready (I don't see how they could possibly make a difference in their first year in the majors). (And yeah I realize that Konerko's ceiling is higher than Daubach's, but "potential" shouldn't be equal to "production", and so far Daubach is easily in Paul's league. I hope Paulie stays and becomes a true All Atar as a memeber of the Sox, but I undersad that sometimes risks must be taken and sacrifizes made. ) Delgado? No way! 18 Million a year is way too much. You can resign Colon AND Buerhle to multiple year deals with that kind of money. On the other hand if Toronto takes care of half of that (why would they, though?) and it only costs the Sox Konerko, Stewart and Rowand...Jimenez/Jose//Delgado/Maggs/Thomas/Lee/Crede/Borchard/Olivo is what baseball dreams are made of!
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Truth is, I am very ambivalent about Konehead: on one hand you can see flashes of undeniable All-Star talent; on the other, 8 Million for only a "pretty good one-dimensional 1bman" is way too much considering that Sox absolutely must bring back Buerhle and Colon (let's say 15 million per for both after 2004) and assuming that Daubach and Valenezula and Borchard can take cafe of LF/1B/RF between them for FRACTION of that. Same for Lee. Gotta love 1000+ OPS and his newfound walking ability (Carlos went from pitiful 15 walks to 75 in the matter of 3 months last season). Yet I don't have the same confidence in him, yet. 2003 year is make or break. Sure a 75 million payroll wil allow the Sox to keep Colon and see if Paulie and Lee can break out and take it to the next level. But we know Reiny won't shell out the money, so who know what KW has in store as far as trades go. One thing I'd hate is to see Carlos become Sosa Lite and/or Konerko become Palmeiro clone once they leave the Sox. It's like they gave you their good years, but saved the great ones for other teams.
