Balta1701

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 05:50 PM) How many 71 win teams spend $95-100M to get there and keep their GM? Most of them.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 05:39 PM) You said it is a 71-win team on paper. And so if they win 79 games, they've overperformed by that standard.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 05:21 PM) I'm willing to concede that a single 79-win season on a $127M payroll doesn't necessarily mean there is a talent evaluation problem, however if they follow that up with a similar season on a $94M payroll, I think there is a talent evaluation problem. Why? A $100 million payroll next year will be pretty close to the middle of the league (esp. since the Marlins have jumped into the top 10). Thus, a .500 season with a middle-of-the-league payroll is exactly what should be expected. That isn't telling you that you have a talent evaluation problem, that's telling you that you're right where you should be for your payroll. Hopefully if you're at that point, you have some plan for the next set of moves to build towards the next season or two.

Phil Rogers argues that the Marlins current spending binge is not only unsupportable in the long term (which I think we all had guessed), but that it might be a prelude to Loria trying to sell the Marlins in a year or two, and buying the Mets after cashing out from the Marlins.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 05:03 PM) Yes. You make better arguments than me. Then why should anyone believe you when you sit here and insist without evidence that there is a talent evaluation problem and that 2012 is an all-in season? Worse, not even without evidence, with a whole lot of opposition arguments staring you in the face that you will not deal with?

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 03:49 PM) Again, that points to talent evaluation. If they are good enough to keep the Sox must believe they are good enough to contend with. QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 04:04 PM) Perhaps, but if Beckham and Viciedo are struggling it still goes back to talent evaluation. QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 04:15 PM) The White Sox believe they are ready or they would have gone through a complete tear down. QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 04:29 PM) Yet you think season ticket sales for 2013 will allow Chairman Reinsdorf to keep Williams if they are bad again? QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 04:42 PM) If the White Sox are bad again in 2012 there is a talent evaluation problem with this organization that will be addressed. QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 04:44 PM) It probably went through the GM first. QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 04:57 PM) Williams does not have the free pass you believe he does. Notice how you do nothing but simply put in 1 line assertions and never, ever offer up any reason or evidence why anyone should believe you?

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 04:44 PM) It probably went through the GM first. And from the GM's spot it's a solid deal, one he's likely to outperform...and most importantly, a deal that is entirely moveable in the future if he doesn't get hurt. The GM would probably have stayed in touch with his side to know his approximate demands, and in the event that the owner finally became willing to go for them, the contract would get done.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 04:42 PM) If the White Sox are bad again in 2012 there is a talent evaluation problem with this organization that will be addressed. Clearly, part of that talent is in your reading abilities, because you completely missed the post where we discussed how having guys like Viciedo, Morel, Sale, Reed, and the back 1/2 of the bullpen take time to develop, like kids are supposed to, doesn't state anything about the talent evaluation abilities of the front office.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 04:29 PM) Yet you think season ticket sales for 2013 will allow Chairman Reinsdorf to keep Williams if they are bad again? First, I don't think anyone buys season tickets based on the ID of the GM. Secondly, based on the Forbes numbers, the White Sox ought to have regularly turned a profit of about $20 million when they had a total payroll around $100 million. Even with some erosion of ticket sales, with growth in ad sales they ought to still be able to turn a profit this year with a payroll around $105 million. The only season where they probably lost money out of the last decade was last year, where they spent a ton of money to give the manager a chance to prove he wasn't lying when he said he wanted to stay there. The fact that the Sox have pulled back on payroll gives the Sox plenty of room to remain profitable even with continued erosion of season ticket sales. The only real question is whether they're on the right path to fielding a competitive team in 2013/2014.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 04:24 PM) Chairman Reinsdorf benevolence only goes so far. If the White Sox do not contend in 2012 it is because the GM made bad talent decisions. He isn't going to entrust a rebuilding to that same GM. Based on what evidence? My evidence that he's going to trust that GM is the fact that the GM currently still has the job despite trading away several players and cutting $25 million off the payroll.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 04:15 PM) The White Sox believe they are ready or they would have gone through a complete tear down. When have the White Sox ever done that? Why would the White Sox do that and genuinely sacrifice their ticket sale position by putting a team out even weaker than this one? It's only a good baseball decision if teams are offering up a lot of talent for the guys the Sox have (they aren't, because too many teams are overvaluaing youth right now), and it's only a good business decision if the Sox can't afford their current roster, which clearly they now can.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 04:10 PM) I'm surprised you didn't change the subject by bringing up Cowley. It's difficult to come up with a scenario where the Sox play bad and Williams keeps his job for 2013. Not at all. KW keeping his job for 2013 is already pretty clearly going to happen, probably 2014 as well. The evaluation for him already happened. Whatever he told the chairman going in to last season about the risks, the chairman decided he was the person to go with as the GM through this retooling, and thus he has every opportunity to see it through. Last year, the GM's job was to try to give the manager a chance to prove he still cared about staying in his job. The GM put together a roster that did that. This year, the GM's job is to start a retooling process to put the team in contention in a year or two.

QUOTE (Tex @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 04:05 PM) I have always advocated for letting the voters decide. Presumably this law in Arizona was passed by politicians who were elected themselves, correct? And they weren't replaced after passing this law? Thus, having english speaking candidates only in that state is in fact the decision of the voters.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 04:04 PM) Perhaps, but if Beckham and Viciedo are struggling it still goes back to talent evaluation. That's the thing...you're 100% wrong here...especially with Viciedo. Dayan Viciedo is going to be a 23 year old this season. He is supposed to struggle if he hits the big leagues at 23. Rookies take time to develop, especially when they hit the big leagues early. The talent could be entirely there and still take a while. Same applies to Reed in the bullpen, and even more so Sale in the rotation, who has to get back up to 100+ innings after having his last season gambled on trying to save the job of the manager who had quit years beforehand. Ditto Morel while I'm at it. That's what you get when you plug in youth; taking a few years to adapt is the norm, not the exception.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 04:02 PM) No. I see, so you didn't watch the games. No wonder you think KW only has 1 more year for evaluation.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 03:59 PM) If they are performing well enough at the trade deadline that they command a higher price at the deadline, I believe the White Sox are either contending or Dunn, Peavy, and Rios are still bad. Not necessarily, because guys like Beckham, Viciedo, Humber, the whole bullpen could be struggling. Or Konerko and AJ could be showing their age.

CJ Watson does a terrible job of trying to draw fouls.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 03:52 PM) Point is, how can you entrust the rebuilding to the same front office who missed so badly on Dunn, Rios, and Peavy? Can't do it. And they also tolerated a manager who had clearly quit on them too.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 03:49 PM) Again, that points to talent evaluation. If they are good enough to keep the Sox must believe they are good enough to contend with. Or that those players will be able to net higher returns at some point in the future, either through draft-pick compensation or deadline moves.

QUOTE (Steve9347 @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 02:32 PM) Great. Rose is seeing a specialist tomorrow. That's never good. The sideline reporter's statement, in case you missed it, was that they still don't think it's serious but they don't feel like he's improving right now, so they now feel a need to treat more aggressively so that he does start improving.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 03:29 PM) I desperately want to be wrong on damning Kenny for those three and if I am I believe the White Sox will contend. If the Sox didn't think they could contend without Buehrle, Santos, and Quentin, they wouldn't have signed Danks, kept Floyd, Ramirez, or Thornton. You're neglecting one other option...that teams just weren't offering solid deals for any of those guys.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 03:40 PM) If those contracts hurt them again next year the problem is with talent evaluation. Next year, no matter what, Jake Peavy's contract is gone. Next year, Konerko and Floyd's dollars are clear...but that $26 million on Dunn and Rios still hangs around.

QUOTE (DirtySox @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 03:04 PM) I acknowledge a possibility. I certainly don't expect it though. I expect a record similar to last season. Basically, Kenny built a team with an outside shot at competing...but really, this team is designed to put up a record close to .500 and give him a chance to work through the contracts that are hurting it.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 02:49 PM) I expect the team Kenny Williams put together for 2012 to contend for an AL Central title. Well, then you're still the only one.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 02:44 PM) . . . Or perhaps you'd rather have a prospect guru bestow a coveted top 15 ranking on the system in 2013. Then you'd call for KW's firing for failing to develop a winning big league team.