Balta1701

Damnit! If only Anderson was in...

Harris.Mauer. Morneau.

Harris. Mauer. Morneau.

FWIW, Gavin has thrown 99 pitches coming in to this inning.

Thanks OC. Come on Gavy!

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ May 6, 2008 -> 06:22 PM) How ironic that we're begging our hitters to make outs now. There's a lecture by former CIA director Jim Woolsey that I want to go to in 30 minutes.

OK, come on OC, just get your ass back on the bench. First pitch swinging!

Ok there you got your insurance run. For crying out loud just try to pop up a bunt on the next 2 pitches and let's get Gavy back out there.

I wonder if it's possible for Obama to actually pull off the delegate victory in Indiana even if the state goes slightly against him.

By the way, this looks like there's a good chance the margin will be under 10,000 votes either way. Anyone think the Limbaugh effect can't easily have accounted for those? It's showing up in the exit polling as potentially pushing several times that many crossovers.

Ok, based on current results, I'd expect Obama to pick up another 7500 between IU and PU unless there's a turnout difference. Clinton probably has another 1500 coming between Porter and LaPorte, Obama probably has another 2000 or so coming in around Indy. That means Obama needs to pick up around 35000 in Lake County to win.

QUOTE (Athomeboy_2000 @ May 6, 2008 -> 06:08 PM) FOr those not paying attention: Gavin Flyod has a no-no in the 8th SHUT UP! NO HE DOESN'T! NONE OF THOSE J WORDS!

QUOTE (KipWellsFan @ May 6, 2008 -> 06:06 PM) Wayne county is all in I think. You may mean Union County. Actually Wayne County just surged in a moment ago. Union county is very very sparse and essentially not worth noting. Big news in this post though. LaPorte county is now 1/2 in. It's only going 52/48 for Clinton right now, which completely overhauls the message of that last post and makes the margin for Lake need to be even smaller.

QUOTE (Athomeboy_2000 @ May 6, 2008 -> 06:02 PM) I bow to your superior research. lol It's all about the Googles.

By the way, North Carolina is looking like it's hanging at around a 14% win for Obama now, maybe a little variation left if there's the usual urban/rural counting splits.

QUOTE (KipWellsFan @ May 6, 2008 -> 05:55 PM) There's still some Clinton areas to come in too. The only 2 worth noting are Wayne County and LaPorte County. Wayne County hasn't come in at all yet, and voted 10000 for Kerry in 04. LaPorte I already mentionned. So a big Hillary win in Wayne County means that between those 2 the margin is 6500 coming in favor of her, which I think probably cancels out everything other than Lake County that still has to be counted that would be PrObama. He'd need to win Lake by about 35000 votes then I think, give or take 5000, which means he'd have to win Lake by the same percent margin he won Indy, give or take again.

QUOTE (daa84 @ May 6, 2008 -> 05:54 PM) espn is about to pick the game up during baseball tonight A couple more of these and Gavin Floyd will be one Hell of a household name. He's closing in on Matt Cain territory.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ May 6, 2008 -> 06:46 PM) Lake will go big to Obama, LaPorte will break for Clinton pretty well. Hillary and Bill were here (laporte co) twice in three days. Obama wasn't here at all. Just did the checking. In 04, LaPorte put 20,000 votes in for Kerry. 60-40 Clinton would put it at 12000-8000. So that would be an extra 4000 votes he'd have to make up. You know, that might well be the margin of victory.

FWIW, it seems that the Obama campaign has now circled May 20th (Oregon and Kentucky) as the day where they will be at greater than 50% of the pledged delegates.

QUOTE (Athomeboy_2000 @ May 6, 2008 -> 05:48 PM) Gap down to 3.226% More importantly...it's down to 32,000 votes with probably enough to bring it down to 25,000 remaining without Lake (Monroe is still hanging out at 23%, Marion still counting, Tippecanoe half counted). A solid showing in Lake drops it down even more.

For the reason I'm not going to mention...Gavy is at 87 pitches through 7. Going 9 is certainly within the realm of possibility.

Just based on the math, assuming Lake county is similar to Marion county, that Obama winds up about 10,000 votes short. That's a lot closer than I expected.

QUOTE (KipWellsFan @ May 6, 2008 -> 06:39 PM) We're assuming Lake County is going to go for Obama in the first place? Well, 26.5% of the county is African American. That's the starting point. Actually a higher %age than Marion County.

QUOTE (daa84 @ May 6, 2008 -> 06:36 PM) quality starts in 5 of his 6 games...and he gave us a chance to win in the other with 6 innings 5 R against the yankees...hes been way better than anyone could have expected He was my AAP, and I'd like to say I was just waiting for this. From the moment we traded for him.

QUOTE (KipWellsFan @ May 6, 2008 -> 05:28 PM) About 500,000 people In 2004, John Kerry got 115,000 votes in Lake County. If you assume no other counties help close the gap (poor assumption) and that many votes turn out, Obama needs to win it almost 2-1. But, there's still some votes sitting in Indy uncounted, and @ PU and IU. In Indy in 2004, Kerry got 162,000 votes, and it seems like over 150,000 turned out in Indy for this one, so I think 110,000 might be a reasonable estimate for the Lake County Turnout. If B-Town and Lafayette could help narrow that gap and get it down to 30,000 or less, he'd have a shot if it went solidly prObama.