Balta1701

QUOTE(Rex Kicka** @ Feb 5, 2008 -> 07:53 PM) 6-6 by my count. Stealing liberally.

This was a disturbingly short rant.

Obama has won a majority of the states up for grabs today, for whatever that counts for.

QUOTE(Athomeboy_2000 @ Feb 5, 2008 -> 07:47 PM) I've been saying this for a while and note the post a few pages back where I showed how 2 Obama wins can easily negate narrow win by Hildog in a major state. He can come out close... if not ahead by tonight's end. That will all be thrown to the wolves by whatever Arizona and CA do.

Link

QUOTE(KipWellsFan @ Feb 5, 2008 -> 07:25 PM) Obama doing well in Colorado early. Expected? There hasn't been a poll since Edwards dropped out of that state, and it was knotted in that last poll.

Fox called Connecticut for Obama.

QUOTE(Athomeboy_2000 @ Feb 5, 2008 -> 07:09 PM) Quick note: I think it was on MSNBC... the Obama campaign is sending out talking points to the press saying a candidate who wins by 6 points might only get 18 more delegates than the runner up. Sound like early spin. They dont seem positive on CA. Hillary has been strong amongst the Latino vote most other places, so they shouldn't be. And the exit poll we did see had Hillary up by a couple.

QUOTE(Jimbo's Drinker @ Feb 5, 2008 -> 07:05 PM) Who is projected in Ohio, texas and Penn?? They're not for another month or two.

Even with the endorsements, she still had a 10+ point lead in polling coming in to the night. The most recent poll had her with a 17 point lead, down from the 35-40 point range a month ago.

QUOTE(Tony82087 @ Feb 5, 2008 -> 06:20 PM) How does that work? I am really trying to get into the election this year, but still learning everything. I want to vote educated. It's kind of like the electoral college, except at the district level instead of the state level. In Nevada, each district gets 3 delegates. If 1 candidate wins but by a tiny margin, it would go 2-1. But if they won by a moderate margin, it would still go 2-1. You need a big win to get 3-0. So it's possible that Obama could eek out a win in a lot of districts but lose fairly big in a couple of heavy populated districts, and come out with more delegates and fewer votes. That's a distinct possibility in CA, which has a lot of rural areas, for example, and a few highly populated cities.

QUOTE(Tony82087 @ Feb 5, 2008 -> 06:12 PM) Ok guys, so what happens after tonight? Doesn't each canidate have to get to like 2000 dels to get a nomination? Will either one of them get that after tonight? Neither side will be even close. And because most of the delegates are apportioned at the district level, we won't know a lot of the exact delegate counts until tomorrow. It's likely that each one will be somewhere around 900 tonight. Unless Obama wins more delegates, Hillary will have a lead because of her lead in Superdelegates, but it already seems like the "Tonight is big for Obama" mo might be forming, because demographically Super Tuesday was his weakness, and if he's pulling 44% of the white vote, that's enough to make it closer than it was supposed to be. From here, the campaign moves on to other states that are more demographically friendly to Obama (younger, more African Americans, etc.). It's possible that we won't have a legit winner unto April. There's more of these in upcoming weeks in Feb, then there's about a month long lull in March before a last gasp in PA. Pennsylvania could well wind up looking like a 2nd Iowa. It's also possible that superdelegates could decide this mess one way or another.

QUOTE(Jimbo's Drinker @ Feb 5, 2008 -> 06:09 PM) but losing almost all states. Mass, NY are big losses. Clinton will win California. NY is a big loss in terms of delegates, yes, because Clinton should score a large win there. But MA was expected as a loss, and will probably come out close in terms of delegates if the exit polls are believable. On the other hand, Obama already has big wins in Illinois and GA, which will close the delegate gap somewhat.

QUOTE(Jimbo's Drinker @ Feb 5, 2008 -> 06:05 PM) Obama has no chance....Clinton will win this, yikes Where exactly are you getting that from? So far I'd say he's overperforming what would have been expected.

Hillary wins American Samoa.

I should just stop posting in the catch all threads.

And while McCain is winning most everywhere, the suggestion seems to be out there right now that he's actually underpeforming where he would have been expected to be.

QUOTE(Rex Kicka** @ Feb 5, 2008 -> 04:56 PM) I'm betting its anywhere between 7 and 10 mil in the bank as we speak. They spent more than that on Iowa though. One ad buy for some major states would eat up 1/3 to 1/2 of that.

Obama wins Illinois. Shocking.

QUOTE(Rex Kicka** @ Feb 5, 2008 -> 04:56 PM) If the exit polls Drudge mentions are anywhere close to true, this is the best possible situation for Obama. Winning where he's supposed to, keeping it close in a lot of Hillary's firewall. I think if these polls hold changes the narrative, and makes Obama the front runner. The other potential issue, if Obama is pulling 85/15 amongst African Americans, it's possible that Hillary could fall below the viability threshold in some of these districts and grab some extra delegates there too.

QUOTE(Rex Kicka** @ Feb 5, 2008 -> 04:52 PM) They aren't out of money. But they're behind in the money race. Do we actually have any idea about their burn rate in January? They could well be running low on funds.

Perhaps more interesting, the exit polling data in GA says Obama won African Americans by 86-14 and narrowed his loss among white voters from the 24% he got in S.C. to earning over 40% in GA. That does bode well nationwide if those numbers hold up. Recent deciders say they broke 50-45 for Obama.

QUOTE(DBAH0 @ Feb 5, 2008 -> 04:39 PM) Hmmm, Clinton winning in California the big one there. On all of those, you should remember they're very volatile and there could easily be odd margin of error effects all over the place. Those CA numbers have been around since 3:00 pm out here, so there's also still 4 more hours of voting on them. I believe Kerry had a decent sized lead in the early day exit polls in most of the key swing states back in 04.

QUOTE(Athomeboy_2000 @ Feb 5, 2008 -> 12:37 PM) Clinton campaign wants more debates! I think they want Obama debating so he has less time to campaign. Campaigning erodes Hillary's support wherever he goes. I think you're wrong on that last part, and I'll point to N.H. as the example. But in terms of their motivation, here's an alternate one...their campaign is out of money and needs any free air time it can get.

QUOTE(Texsox @ Feb 5, 2008 -> 02:55 PM) Right. We need 12,000,000 people to work those jobs that won't qualify for benefits Tex...get reproducin'.