Balta1701

I am willing to bet a lot that the Mets will cost substantially more than $1.3 billion (half the $2.6 billion offer that was pulled in April). https://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/mets/ny-mets-bidders-sale-alex-rodriguez-20200630-wgbfjwtpsvbktnw7t6koo4lhvm-story.html

I'd say you're probably right. I'd also say that the US hasn't given us any reason to believe that even if a vaccine is available by the start of the year, it will be widespread and delivered to a large share of the population by April. So if the headline is "Worried about the 2021 season" that's a fair point. If 3% of the population is vaccinated by next April, can you pack 40k in opening day?

With as little practice as they've had over the past 9 months, you expect Anderson to take a big step forward defensively? Expressing skepticism on that.

Are you thinking of some sort of online daycare? Because I've looked through the 5 or so posts on this and I'm not sure. If you're thinking of in person, the obvious problem is that college students are in general a group who are extremely likely to pick up this virus in the current wave, so sending them into people's homes would make it extremely likely that they'd be spreading the virus around as they did so.

Compared to here, we have no idea what would actually cause the governor to issue any additional shutdown orders, having an official list of what causes things to be re-closed is an improvement. The "7 day moving average increasing" is a pretty strong constraint, if employed hard enough that would limit its potential to get out of control. Texas's 7 day average has been increasing since the first re-opening orders were issued in April - there's one brief time when it goes down but that's entirely due to fewer tests on memorial day. Had that rule been in place here, things would have never re-opened.

29-31, still in 3rd place. They're a young team with a generally weak coaching staff, teams that are more experienced are going to be better able to handle the extreme situations this season. A young team is also probably at higher risk of guys going to places that increase their chances of catching it and missing significant time. The Royals and Tigers rosters aren't as bad as last year so it won't be as easy to fatten up on wins. Aside from the pirates, same thing in the NL Central. Some of the things we had going for us, like Cleveland being banged up in spring training, no longer matter. Prove me wrong?

That's telling you there's something about the climate in schools there or the equipment used (type of AC? Lack of ability to open windows? Lack of appropriate hygiene supplies?) that has upped the likelihood of transmission substantially.

I believe they only practice together so that they limit the risk of exposure. 3 of the guys from the taxi squad (pitcher, catcher, position player) will travel with the big league team at all times so that they can be available immediately.

THere's what, 44 people in big league camp right now, so when the roster gets cut to 30 in ten days, they fill out the rest of this team?

He can't get promoted or activated unless he's on the Taxi squad roster. He currently isn't, right?

So here's Texas today with a new daily high in cases, coming off highs in positivity rate over the weekend, and hanging out near 100 deaths per day again. For those wondering why they should care about this number - Texas instituted "soft" mask requirements about 3 weeks ago, starting late June, in most of their their major cities, and closed bars and reduced restaurants to 50% capacity at the same time. This week we will also be 2 weeks past the July 4 holiday and 2 weeks past a statewide indoor mask requirement, so this week and next week are likely a test of whether we need a harder lockdown to level this thing out. Going up at 1000 cases a week would be progress, but not enough. This is a boost of about 700 cases from last tuesday, with still increasing positivity rates.

The last 2 days were weekend numbers. There are always fewer tests done on Saturday and Sunday, so there's fewer to report on Sunday-Monday (and sometimes Tuesday). We're at about 100 per cases per day on average, and the last 3 days we reported 40, 50, and 60, and we'll probably be back over 100 tomorrow in this county - the question is whether it spikes to something like 150 any time soon.

So I wanted to give a reply to this yesterday but didn't have time. 1. There are a number of good quality papers out there saying that young people are much less likely to transmit this virus than adults/people in their late teens and early 20s. This is now well established and you can read it if you want. https://pediatrics.aappublications.org/content/early/2020/07/08/peds.2020-004879. This is unusual for viruses - influenza and the common cold transmit just fine amongst kids. 2. If it wasn't for point #1, schools would seem like the absolute worst possible place to be. Lots of talking, crowded rooms, limited ventilation, 8+ hours a day, it'd be like a restaurant for 8 hours. You'd otherwise flag that as the absolute highest risk place you can imagine. 3. There are some reasons to be skeptical about how far #1 really goes. a.) There are now multiple cases of transmission involving kids, maybe not driven by them but definitely involving them. A summer camp in Missouri had 82 kids infected. Texas has an outbreak in day care centers with 1300 cases recognized, 444 of which are children. https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/07/10/889718877/at-least-82-coronavirus-cases-linked-to-missouri-sleepaway-camp https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/06/health/texas-coronavirus-cases-child-care-facilities/index.html b.) Children seemingly don't manifest the same symptoms as adults. Children often seem to report migranes and some other problems rather than the breathing issues we see in adults. As a consequence, it is likely that there is more spreading among children and between children than has been recognized previously. IF you have 2 sick people, one kid complaining about headaches and an adult complaining of respiratory distress, and testing is limited in your country, you are going to test the adult and not the child. Between fewer symptoms and changed symptoms, it is likely that we are under-testing and under-recognizing the disease amongst children specifically. c.) In New York, it was recognized that a number of children get the virus, show weak to no symptoms, and then some percentage experience unexplained severe illnesses 1-3 months later (possibly more, we've only been dealing with this for 1-3 months). So while the virus may show limited symptoms at first, it may do damage or lay dormant in unexpected ways. 4. Given all that information, if you have spread in your area and you open schools you are almost certain to get some spread in schools. It may be focused among the teachers, but the teachers may be the ones who get it and infect significant numbers of young people. If you had to choose keeping schools closed or restaurants closed, you would clearly choose restaurants, bars, gyms, etc., as they are more likely to represent large spreading events. If you have limited spread in an area, ample testing, and available PPE, you could probably open schools with relative safety if you have developed appropriate plans to protect the teachers and students over time. However, literally no where in this country has all of those things, because the hot spots are so huge and the demand for PPE and testing in the hot spots is so high. 5. Because we cannot keep the outside area safe, it is very difficult to expect that if you open a school it won't come in, and if it comes in you will have probably 10 days before you realize there's a problem even if there is a problem. Testing is too restricted, most of the spreading is done by people before symptoms develop, and any kids who do spread it have a good chance of failing to be recognized. 6. Furthermore, opening schools creates another problem. While COVID-19 may not spread easily among youth, influenza does, and if schools are open it will mean flu season is coming. Right now, much of the nation has no spare capacity left in hospitals for flu patients. Adding transmission of an additional virus would be particularly hazardous right now. 7. We could quibble on the numbers and the procedures, 5% positive tests or 3% or whatever, but opening grade schools would be possible if we had taken care of everything outside of schools, but opening schools depends on meeting standards we have failed to meet as a nation. Outside of a handful of communities and possibly New York state, right now most of the country is in no shape to do this. We chose to have bars and restaurants open for 1.5 months over having schools open in the fall. 8. While the risks may be lower because of something about this virus, there are offsetting factors that are unknown, and one final point - even if most do not get this as bad as adults, some kids still get very sick, some kids would have long-lasting complications, and some kids would die. Generally speaking, that's not a good thing to ask of most families. 9. Any University that thinks they can open their doors is asking for disaster.

Remember, Mitch McConnell is working hard to provide immunity to schools and businesses so that just because they let someone else infect you it doesn’t mean you can sue.

In that case there is still an option but we have to actually gear up and battle this thing. 1. Lockdowns and mask wearing, get down to a few hundred cases nationwide. 2. Aggressive contact tracing. (same as the options being pushed previously). 3. Targeted vaccination campaigns. Hit areas where it is known to be circulating with a large campaign of vaccination. A couple months of immunity combined with the other measures is enough to shut it down in an area since many of the people who get it don’t actually spread it. 4. Set a goal of elimination. Maybe at first you are dealing with areas that have dozens of cases, maybe later you’re vaccinating cities because there were 5 reported cases. With leadership and money it could be done.

There's a Wikipedia page on the Blackhawks name and you are correct a lot of the comments seem to specifically focus on the logo, but there are some more general statements out there as well. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicago_Blackhawks_name_and_logo_controversy https://aicchicago.org/statement-on-blackhawks/

Both Harden and Westbrook have been missing from the bubble and opening games are in like 2 weeks, so I was kinda figuring.

I don’t know if this sounds weird but Dunning is one guy who I think this mess might be good for. Limits his innings but very likely to see big league competition quickly.

FWIW, Louisiana is now a case study on this. They announced a statewide mask mandate on June 13, with the normal exceptions (eating, outside on your own, no enforcement in churches, etc). They were at about 500 cases per day at the time but starting to see a few spikes, today they shut down bars and a bunch of other things because they’re back to 2000 cases per day. Masks help, they slow it, but they are not a cure-all. Thus far we have basically zero examples of anywhere on earth getting this under control without a shutdown, and we are back to “need to get this under control” again.

1. Have you noticed how the hospitals in all the hotspots are overloaded again and reusing PPE again? 2. you are correct, nothing has been done. There is a reason why. I deal a little in disaster response science. One of the lessons there is that someone needs to make decisions at the top, even if they are wrong they are better than paralysis, because when decisions aren’t made at the top, no one else can do their job m. The US is broken at the top. There are no thought through guidelines, No answer for what to do when there is an outbreak, there are no extra funds, people haven’t been buying or manufacturing the equipment you would need to keep those buildings safe. Even if something was ordered incorrectly, at least some things might have been done right. A school district on its own can’t make these decisions, especially if they have no extra funds. When no one is in charge, it creates paralysis at every level. That is where we are right now.

You have just answered your previous question.

Get it sloping back down. its going up right now. If cases are increasing and positive rate is increasing, you don’t have control. And if you have it going up now, where is it in a month? Figure out a national strategy for contact tracing. That would have helped too.

Hey, everyone else had their chance to actually get this virus under control. We decided not to get the virus under control, that means schools aren't safe to be in.

https://www.vox.com/2020/7/12/21321653/getting-covid-19-twice-reinfection-antibody-herd-immunity dragging this up for relevance as we are now starting anecdotally to see reports of second infections a few months after a first infection with far more severe symptoms the second time around. Limited sample size but this is an MD reporting on their patients so it’s a credible example.

Any school that thinks they can do fall sports is deluding themselves right now, it's just a matter of time. Getting pro sports going in this country has required testing every 2 days for MLB, and even then it's an open question whether it will work. The country simply doesn't have the testing capacity to do that with college sports.