Balta1701

The 1b that I'm already assuming we will draft this year.

Now inflate that for 2022/2023 and you're talking $170.

No we will not. The big difference between now and then is that the guys we're bringing in who are pre-arb are Kopech, Cease, Eloy, Madrigal, Vaughn, Collins, Robert, and the other outfielders. These guys are big time talents. They SHOULD be very different from bringing along guys like an early career Yolmer Sanchez, a broken down John Danks, A Jimmy Rollins - to fill in roles. If they systematically bust and Kopech comes out throwing like Mat Latos, then we're in rotten shape and that's a bad thing. These guys should not be scrubs. That's the point. If they are, then we have more evidence about Rick Hahn being awful. Bringing in big time talents should be very different.

But many of those players will be guys like Robert, Cease, Collins, Eloy, Vaughn - who won't be hitting arbitration until 2023 or later, and hopefully a couple of our other pitchers will be filling bullpen roles. And if Moncada is too expensive, trading Moncada and moving in Madrigal is an option as well. There's no plausible way those costs are a huge problem due to guys reaching arbitration - if they are expensive in those years, it's because we're winning. If they're not winning, then the arbitration costs won't be as high, and some of those guys (Giolito?) are going to be cut loose for replacements (Dunning). A much better question is whether or not we want our 2nd big contract to be an outfielder rather than, for example, a starting pitcher next offseason.

If the young players aren't as good as Rendon, they won't earn that much in arbitration. If arbitration costs are becoming a problem in 2021 and 2022, that means we have one hell of a team. There is no way around this.

Kevin Gausmann got $9.35 million in arbitration year 3, not arbitration year 2. Anthony Rendon got $18 million in arbitration year 3, not arbitration year 2, and he's been in the top 11 of MVP voting the past 2 seasons. Zach Wheeler is in arbitration year 3 and is a free agent at the end of this year. I'm not even going to look the other ones up because I checked 3 and all 3 of them had the same problem. You're comparing guys in different arbitration years to make this look worse. Arbitration year 3 for Moncada, Giolito, and Lopez is 2023.

And if these guys are that good that in 2022 they are getting $12-$15 million in arbitration, the White Sox will have a couple of consecutive playoff runs. Hopefully a ring and a banner. If they're not darn near filling that ballpark, raising ticket prices, and seeing surges in TV and in-stadium ad revenue, of the sort where a $175 million payroll is possible (note that this is 4 years from now with revenues growing at 5% a year or more, and a new CBA) - well then they might as well move the team because if they can't fill the stadium winning that amount of ballgames then there's no reason to be in Chicago any more, RH would have destroyed the fanbase.

No they would not be look again. Moncada, Lopez, and Giolito came up mid-2017, after the expected Super 2 point in June. That means they will be pre-arb in 2018, 2019, and 2020. If you need confirmation please check the B-R table where they are shown as pre-arb in 2020 and Arb-1 in 2021.

How many players have gotten more than $10 million in year 1? I know of 1, Kris Bryant, $10.85 mil, 2 years removed of the National League MVP award. The Arb-1 record holder for pitchers is Dallas Keuchel at just over $7 million. That was coming off 2015...when he won the Cy Young Award. I promise, if Lopez has multiple Cy Young awards by 2020 such that he's blowing past the arb record for pitchers and Yoan Moncada has a $15 million win in year 1 thanks to his back to back MVP awards, I will not f***ing care one iota about those prices thanks to my new white sox gear that I bought during the 2020 world series run.

Just to point out - if all of those guys are good enough in 2020 to earn those salaries in arbitration, the White Sox will have won the 2020 AL Central, and they will be as frightening of a roster as there is in baseball for 2021. Also worth noting - Moncada, Lopez, and Giolito are only arb-1 in 2021.

Just think of how many pages we are going to add to this thread today....

One, if not a couple of those pitchers might darn well need replacing by 2020.

If they were close enough to really be playing those games, they'd be sitting down and getting this done. Note that it is not yet done.

Ugh, who writes these things. Yes, he's going to be squeezed by Yolmer Sanchez and Tim Anderson and the interest in Manny Machado is a sign we have no confidence in him...because all of them are quality 2b right now. At least check who our bleeping first round pick was and write it the correct way.

Pecota has the Brewers at 89 wins, highest total in the NL Central. Fangraphs has them much lower because FG is not a fan of their starting pitching and it expects dropoffs from guys like Cain and Yelich.

The Brewers are a totally realistic World Series threat from the national league on paper. You can come up with any number of things that could go wrong - injuries, struggles by Cain or Yelich, etc. - but on paper they're as good or better than they were to end last season. Some of the guys in their bullpen should be starting for them this year, which should strengthen their rotation, and they upgraded their catching spot.

They didn't really respond to any of the early stories this offseason until Lozano finally chimed in mid-January, on the Olney article. After that it went quiet on "offers" until this week when suddenly everyone's talking about the offer numbers again.

I do think it's possible he will have to work in Charlotte due to performance issues - remember how his 2018 went, he was a walking walk for about 3 months and then suddenly everything clicked in late june and july. If it takes him just as long to find a groove we won't want him up next season. However, if people think this team is going to be competing for the AL Central in 2020, then Kopech is going to be a required part of any competitive rotation even if you bring in a free agent.

That's where this conversation started, a person saying that Bryce Harper couldn't hold Eloy's Jock Strap. A couple of us said things along the line of "Give him time, he could be the best hitter on the team and that still wouldn't be true" and you chimed in to tell us that was a "jordan cut from his high school basketball kinda thing".

So if his numbers don't make Bryce Harper look pathetic next year you're going to be disappointed?

Expecting success I'm totally ok with. If you're saying he's going to make Bryce Harper look like a weak hitter in his rookie campaign I worry people have their levels set too high. If all he does is put up an .825 OPS and is the best hitter (Currently) on our roster, those people will be disappointed even though that would be really good for a 22 year old in a first stint against big league pitching.

When he comes up, Eloy's going to be a 22 year old rookie who moved fast through the last levels and had some injury issues last year. Don't be too disappointed if he doesn't live up to this standard immediately.

If their max is $250 then they weren't really serious about signing him unless he's a bargain which would be disappointing. If they're doing this right, then they have been biding their time waiting for Machado's side to come back with an offer that is reasonably close to ours. If their side started at $350 and they've dropped down to $340 that's not much movement and no one has offered anything close to that. If the Sox hypothetically had a $250m offer on the table and Machado's side comes back and starts asking about $275, then the White Sox can say "will you sign for something like that today"

Well over $350 million. At the start of the offseason people were talking about $400 for Harper and $350 for Machado being legitimate potential ranges. If there's a contract in that range, it's still better money than what the White Sox have spent on previous free agent markets.

Bah, there was actually a small tax cut for most people this year, everyone else will be really hit in about 3-4 years when the broad based tax increase that was part of the same bill comes up.