Balta1701

Interestingly, the brief stretch of really good pitching that Giolito had also correlated with the best velocity he threw during the year. In July and August, his average fastball was nearly 2 mph faster than at the start of the season, and then during the last month when he went back to getting shelled he lost that velocity. My thought at the time was that Giolito hit a dead-arm wall, and that we were watching a young pitcher who was developing the conditioning on his arm. I have at least some hope for improvement from him next year if he could get his fastball velocity up sooner and hold it for longer, but who knows.

If the White Sox signed one of those guys and then added Keuchel, the best remaining pitcher on the FA market, I would still say that this is one of the bottom of the league starting rotations. It would be 2015 White Sox foolish to add a Harper or Machado and then make a move like that thinking that this is a competitive roster with that rotation. Bolstering the rotation in 2019 will do very little to improve the roster and it will require a high cost because you'll have to pay for someone who was better than Covey last year and there are only a handful of guys available who meet that standard. The thing that should actually make a difference is not the FA market, or even the trade market, it is the combination of Kopech, Cease, and Dunning hopefully all arriving in 2020, and development of Lopez and hopefully Giolito or others this year and next. We need that lineup to start looking like a strong rotation in 2020 and 2021.

That's what he'd say if he had just gotten off the phone with Machado's agent and made an official offer.

I think when he was first drafted he channeled it in other ways. He's genuinely one player who became an all star by working harder than everyone else - when he had to do that, he was channeling this energy into making himself better. Once he arrived and became that good of a player, he started realizing that the people around him wouldn't go to the levels he did, and that started leading to him becoming more outwardly demanding.

There's ways to build computer systems that don't produce stupid answers even if it returns some valuable answers. Because of the level of stupid answers in that chart I'm less confident in its ability to return quality ones.

Our actual starting 5 projected for 4.3. I do feel like their system has overprojected Kopech's 1.6 fWAR if he pitched 200 innings 6 months after Tommy John Surgery.

FWIW, "He's on my plane" ≠ "He's flying coach". First class will often seat first and then coach walks right past them as they board.

All right, now we're finally to where the Phillies were with Corbin, so we can get down to the business of him going elsewhere.

Isn't that what I said in the last line where I said "they won't drag themselves out of their old habits even when they've been proven to fail"?

Here's the trick: 2k5 posted how, with inflation of salaries, ARoid's original deal would be more than a $600 million deal today. Baseball has done a better job of holding down the growth of these top line salaries than any other sport, and that has made these 2 guys, in my eyes, the likeliest place where you can find value on the FA market. If they are $35 million a year players and you get 5 WAR for each of them, during the seasons that matter - you have gotten that performance for $7 million per WAR, which is incredible value compared to the part of the free agent market the White Sox have played previously. Using that logic, buying both of those guys is the right decision. The problem - it is the kind of aggressive thinking that the White Sox aren't likely to do. They'll look at all the other logic here - "We can't have half our payroll tied up in 2 players", "We need the ability to go sign player x to an additional position", and that will win out. Giving out $700 million in contracts to these 2 is better money than anything the White Sox have spent in the free agent market this decade save maybe, maybe the bet on Abreu. That's why they won't do it, because they won't drag themselves out of their old habits even when they've been proven to fail.

Honestly, if they specifically told Scott Boras that...I don't think Boras would believe them and he'd still put in time with the White Sox even after a Machado signing.

What's better, committing this kind of money to these guys, or the $50 million we spent annually on Samardzija, Cabrera, Robertson, and LaRoche in 2015?

They can trade them later for money to build equity with ownership.

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Harper + Machado + Keuchel for only 60-70? I think that's 80-90.

Literally saw one of the ESPN folks this morning suggesting that the Phillies were the only remaining fit for Kimbrel in that they might spend a decent amount to fill out their bullpen.

I'd say the Dodgers are a good match for Pollock with their depth, but they also don't have a good history for keeping people healthy.

If youre AJ pollock, do you have confidence that you can stay healthy for a year? He should take the largest amount of money offered to him. He might never get the chance again.

How do you figure out what number to put on that?

Didn’t you post the thread about the Cubs being so frustrated that the Ricketts considered leaving?

So anyone want to know what a contact binary Kuiper Belt Object looks like? Because humanity took photos of one New Years Eve. It’s a snow person. http://www.planetary.org/blogs/emily-lakdawalla/2019/mu69-baby-comet-contact-binary.html

What that means is that the cost to the white Sox of those last 3 years is very small and it would be idiotic not to offer them.

FWIW, if this was true and the white Sox were more interested in playing these sorts games than putting together serious bids, that’s the sort of thing that should bring the last 3 people who care about the white Sox out with pitchforks and torches after Rick Hahn. After that two more of them should give up, leaving the last white Sox fan to turn out the lights when they leave.

Husband of a person I knew in high school.