southsider2k5

Daryl Van Schouwen ‏@CST_soxvan 8m Ventura said rehab start for Chris Sale is a possibility.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Apr 30, 2014 -> 10:16 AM) Whether he hits it to RF or LF, a certain number of those should be playable by a defender, based on historical precedent. We know this (these) number(s). Way more of Flowers this year have fallen in for hits than average. This is the luck. If you disagree, you're saying that his approach doesn't just allow him to hit it to RF, but specifically in gaps to the side or in front of fielders. He is finding the holes at a rate much higher than every player ever, so even if you think he has developed an ability to control the bat like Tony Gwynn, he's still been successful about 20-25% than everyone in history right now, which is unaccounted for. This is the luck component, my friend. The comparison ends because we aren't comparing like samples. Tony Gwynn would too put up an insane BABIP if he knew was coming, as would most any other hitter. Again, that becomes obvious when you look at the different in how hitters hit when they know what is coming. If there was no difference, in your version, a pitcher tipping pitches should see no difference in his BABIP against, nor should a guy who is getting his signs stolen. Do you believe that to be true?

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Apr 30, 2014 -> 10:06 AM) Yes, but the LUCK is where the ball is landing, not how hard he's hitting it. The "luck" is in his approach. He quit trying to pull that ball and hit it to the LF foul pole. He shortened his swing and redesigned it with the full intention of doing exactly what is is doing with the slow stuff on the outer half. He isn't try to hit it 500 feet. He is actually trying to dump it into RCF. You can see that with his swing.

QUOTE (Feeky Magee @ Apr 30, 2014 -> 09:58 AM) So theoretically, if pitchers continued to throw to him as they have been (striking him out 34.5% of the time, as opposed to 34.2% of the time last year), would you expect him to maintain a BABIP close to .600? Yes. I would. These are major league baseball hitters. When they KNOW what is coming, they can hit it. At that point it becomes glorified batting practice. That is why the arts of stealing signs, seeing where catchers set up, picking up pitchers who tip their pitches, etc, are so important. If it were simply "luck" in theory there should be no difference between knowing what pitch is coming, and not knowing, as it relates to the result of how a ball is hit. If BABIP were simply a measure of "luck" there should be no difference in results if you know what is coming, or if you don't. We all know that isn't true. Again, watching batting practice. In an extremely simplified version of baseball, these guys kill the ball.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Apr 30, 2014 -> 08:06 AM) That's what I'm saying: everyone agrees that he has made adjustments and has improved. The question being discussed is "have those adjustments really turned him into a .350/.400/.450 hitter?" From watching the games, I can tell you it seems that he's been making more consistent contact than last year, but he's also been spraying ducksnorts and seeing-eye grounders around a bit too. To my eye, it looked like he was swinging softer to prioritize contact over power, and that he was getting extremely lucky with where the ball was going/landing. Examining his Pitch F/X data confirms that he's been swinging at fewer bad pitches and making more contact when he does swing. Examining his BABIP and batted ball data tells us that (1) his LD% is sky high, but in line with what the best hitters in the league get each year. So it seems he has made legitimate improvements that have led to harder contact, and (2) the disparity between his xBABIP and BABIP is very, very wide. Taking a closer look reveals that both his grounders and fly balls have been turning into hits at much higher rates than even elite hitters get, let alone average hitters. So the answer we come up with, and pretty confidently, is: Tyler Flowers has indeed changed his approach for the better, but that it has not turned him into a .350/.400/.450 hitter. The numbers have showed me personally that he is playing better than I thought he was, but confirms that it simply cannot last at the current rate. I would have been wrong about this, despite watching all but maybe 3 games so far, had I not examined the numbers. Luck implies that if the pitchers made no changes, Flowers would revert back to his old self. As I have consistently said, he will take a plunge when pitchers throw out the old book on Flowers and make new adjustments. That isn't "bad luck" or a lack of "luck". That is baseball, and pitchers trying to get out batters. All those numbers say it what I can see on my TV screen. Flowers and probably Steverson figured some things out and have plan of attack for how pitchers are going after Flowers. When the pitchers change, so will Flowers numbers. That has nothing to do with luck. And no has ever said the guy was a .350 hitter. That is absurd. He won't be a .350 hitter because pitchers won't pitch him the same way.

QUOTE (RockRaines @ Apr 29, 2014 -> 11:31 PM) And his gf got into a fight in the stands. Rumor is that she shoved someone in the back and screamed really loud, but then just stood staring in disbelief when they shoved back.

QUOTE (Jake @ Apr 30, 2014 -> 12:33 AM) It would be hard for me to go for more than one year at a time with Dunner. If he got the type of deal that Paul Konerko got this year, then I could see it. Otherwise? No way.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Apr 30, 2014 -> 01:04 AM) Well then what didn't you "buy" about Feeky's post? There is more to the game of baseball than statistics. If you watched the games at all, you would know exactly what is going on with Tyler Flowers. It isn't luck, it is adjustment and game planning. It won't be bad luck when the pitchers adjust to his adjustments. I think in this case people are misusing the numbers when the answer is right in front of them.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Apr 29, 2014 -> 09:19 PM) I mean I don't think anyone is disagreeing with your logic, the issue is the degree that what you're mentioning can affect his onfield results. If you believe that Flowers has "adjusted" himself into a sustainable .600 BABIP, you believe he has the best bat control of any player in the entire history of baseball by a very wide margin. No one has ever come even remotely close to sustaining that kind of BABIP for a significant enough length of time as to suggest it was true talent. Career BABIP all-time: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...0&sort=12,d I never once said it was sustainable. Never.

After three years of disaster, the thought is that the Sox are going to buy off of his ONE good year? Oye.

QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Apr 29, 2014 -> 07:18 PM) So, you're cool with him a) going over 120 pitches and b) going over 120 pitches when he's visibly straining? Both those things happened and both are dumb as s***. Pitch counts aren't God's word but they sure as hell aren't meaningless either. I'm more annoyed that Robin left a visibly tired Sale in the game than the pitch count thing, but I'm pretty sure the brass had a nice quick chat with Robin about it. What?

QUOTE (LDF @ Apr 29, 2014 -> 05:40 PM) but when you have a boras client, boras is going to try to max his salary. Which is why I could see the Sox passing on Rodon.

QUOTE (Feeky Magee @ Apr 29, 2014 -> 05:40 PM) So you're saying that major leaguers can greatly affect their BABIP through positive adjustments? Absolutely. That is why you make adjustments.

For the twitterers out there... The @79Abreu account is fake

Dan Hayes ‏@DanHayesCSN 2m Robin Ventura said its slim that Chris Sale would pitch Saturday for #WhiteSox.

QUOTE (chw42 @ Apr 29, 2014 -> 04:22 PM) And Shields is nowhere near Tanaka, Kershaw, or Greinke. He's a 4.5 WAR type pitcher who can be considered an ace on most teams. Age also plays a big part. The three guys you mentioned are all at least 2 years younger than Shields. When Greinke signed his contract, he was 29. I'd be willing to give a guy with 4.5 WAR talent (which Grienke does and then some) 6 years and $123 million at 29. I'd be very hesitant to do the same for a guy who's 32. Edit: Shields will actually be 33 come the 2015 season. I said he would be 33 earlier. Grienke also has his social anxiety problem, which held down his deal. Anyways, those contracts are all bigger than what I would speculate for Shields, but they are also all going to be a year older when Shields signs his next year. The #1 starter never goes out of demand. Teams are probably also going to look at Shields as a "cheaper" alternative to Scherzer and maybe even Lester. After those top three pitchers, the talent level takes a big dive. Teams are going to be looking at that too.

QUOTE (chw42 @ Apr 29, 2014 -> 04:12 PM) We're talking about a guy who's going to be 32. He's not going to get 6-7 years, that's a bit crazy. He'll get his 4-5 years at a fair price. We saw guys who were asking for 5 years and $100 million (like Ervin Santana) without a contract until March this off-season. Teams are definitely being more careful with pitchers, especially older ones. Santana is no where near Shields. Not even in the same area code. Those Tanaka, Grienke, and Kershaw deals play large here. If I had to guess, I would say 6 years at around $23 million a year.

QUOTE (LDF @ Apr 29, 2014 -> 04:03 PM) drafting and giving over-slot money is there and been done. per the CBA after the first 10 rounds, bonuses of overslot count against the budget of the first 10 rounds -- there are ways to work around the former issue. Even though it's the first year of the new draft rules, there were already multiple organizations finding creative ways to redistribute the risk and money allotted to them. But they still haven't come up with a way to get around going over your draft allotment. The first pick slot is $7,922,100. The White Sox total for all draft picks has to be under $9,509,700. So if the Sox were to draft Rodon, and give him #1 pick money, they would have about $1.6 million to spend on the entire rest of their draft picks, otherwise they would face the following sanctions. $1.6 million would get the Sox something like their second round pick and their 5th round pick, and no other signings over $100,000. In theory, they could go up to $9,985,184.99 and just pay a tax. That amounts to about an extra $450,000, or about the price of a 4th round draft pick. After that, they are giving up draft picks, and that won't happen.

QUOTE (chw42 @ Apr 29, 2014 -> 03:51 PM) If anything, the 1400+ innings he's pitched over the last 7 years hurts him more than it helps him. That's a lot of mileage on his arm and pitchers don't always stay healthy once they get near their mid 30s. His lack of injury history will make it much easier to convince teams to add another year on to that deal, not harder.

QUOTE (chw42 @ Apr 29, 2014 -> 03:39 PM) He can probably get 4 years and $80 million. I see zero chance of it being that small. He has been over 200 innings for 7 straight years now. He turns 33 in July. Unless he collapses or really gets hurt this season, I'd bet on a 5 to 6 year deal, starting at $20 million per year, but I wouldn't be shocked at all if it pushed more like $25 million. There isn't a lot out there on the market this year. Max Scherzer is the clear #1, but after that, Shields is probably #2.

Daryl Van Schouwen ‏@CST_soxvan 4m White Sox bullpen has thrown 8.0 scoreless innings over last 3 games, has 2.31 ERA over the last 10.

Daryl Van Schouwen ‏@CST_soxvan 1m Jose Abreu leads majors with 10 HRs and 32 RBI and is first in the American League with 17 extra-base hits and slugging percentage (.626).

QUOTE (Stan Bahnsen @ Apr 29, 2014 -> 03:25 PM) Also the FA pitcher that I have my eye on - for a variety of reasons. He's get-able. Why? I think he goes for at least nine figures.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Apr 29, 2014 -> 03:14 PM) As much as the fans have hated Dunn, they probably would forgive the Sox brass in this one case. Probably not. The Sox fan base isn't exactly rational

QUOTE (Feeky Magee @ Apr 29, 2014 -> 03:21 PM) It's actually a small part, from what I can make out. .357 over whatever his career BABIP was before the start of the year (currently .310 lifetime) is the result of the things you could put down to Flowers's improvement, .600 over .357 down to luck. So probably about .060 down to Flowers and about .240 down to luck. I don't buy that. These are major league hitters. If I tell a major league hitter, than I am going to throw you a thigh-high slider moving from the outside corner to just off of the plate, you can probably hit that pitch if you have the right approach. You aren't going to do anything with it if you are trying to pull it, which Flowers spent all of last year trying to do. But if you are willing to sacrifice the power, and hit it into RCF, your odds go WAY up. Again, this is if you know this is coming, meaning you aren't guessing up there. The odds of anyone hitting a ball hard go WAY up when you know what is coming. Seeing as this is how pitchers have gotten Flowers out for a long time, someone FINALLY got through to the kid that this is exactly what is coming. That isn't luck. That is a good game plan. Again, the problem will come when pitchers start doing something different, and I think that different will be the letter high fastball. He still strikes out on that pitch an awful lot. The stats can tell you some things, but so can watching the games.