Jack Parkman

I still believe that they'll sit out until they either beat Stanton in total money or they'll sign a 1 year deal in June, around the signing deadline if they don't get it. I don't think they'll beat Stanton, so I do think they'll end up signing the 1-year deal in June. 7/220 isn't crazy, as it still blows away AAV at 31.4M. Stanton's deal is 25M AAV. That is why I think they'll take the 1-year deal.

I think there is strong chance that the Yankees and Cubs would be in on those players next year when they aren't this year, because they both have a LOT of bad money coming off the books. Ellsbury, Gardner, and Cap'n Cheeseburger are off the books next year and that would cover Machado for the Yankees. The Cubs have only 93.5M in guaranteed contracts for 2020(including Quintana's 12.5M option, as that is a no brainer) , and Zobrist comes off the books for them. They also have a LOT of arb eligible players though. Also Pipedream offseason with Machado: Machado(8/260) Carlos Gonzalez on a 1 year deal. Basically, you fill 3B and RF, and possibly sign Gio Gonzalez or Clay Buchholz to a 1 year deal for the rotation. Again, I wouldn't complain either way with regard to the rotation.

I don't think that teams value him that highly because his OBP is shitty and he hits .240-270. His hitter profile is considered dime a dozen these days. He's still a decent 3B.

My prevailing argument is that location is more important to them than money. Machado wants to play in NYC, whether for the Mets or Yankees, and Harper wants to play for any of the Yankees/Red Sox/Dodgers/Cubs.

If I was going to have a pipedream remainder of the offseason, it would be the following: Harper-8/260, opt out after years 4/5/6. Moustakas-2/22 to give the team more time to evaluate Moncada vs Madrigal and that is it. I'm perfectly ok with running with Banuelos/Covey/Fulmer in the 5th spot until either Dunning or Cease are ready. Keep that spot open. I wouldn't complain about Gio Gonzalez as an add on a 1-year deal. I just don't want him and a potentially bad Giolito blocking either Dunning or Cease when they're ready for the Majors. Next offseason sign either Cole or Sale and use that prospect capital to acquire players to fill holes with 3+ year controllable players, especially the OFers other than Robert, Basabe, and Walker(if he can stick in CF)

We're on the same page there. I think they need 3-4 seasons of data in order to accurately project MLB performance.

I wouldn't be surprised if one of them signed with someone like the Cardinals with an opt out after each of the first 3 seasons, and a total deal in the 7/220 range.

Same with pitchers like Lopez and Giolito, and even Rodon. I completely agree. Moncada could go from crap to Jose Ramirez this year.

Projection systems are also whack on young pitchers who struggled in FIP/xFIP in their first full season, so you have to take that with a MASSIVE grain of salt.

As of right now, I see Lopez as a #3-4 and I don't think he gets much better than that, even if he starts striking out more batters. I think he compares, numbers wise, to Quintana's best seasons in a Sox uni. He'll have a season or two where he Ks 190-210 but most of the time he'll be in the 170-190 range. He'll be a 3-4 WAR pitcher depending on the season. In his best years, he'll be a #2 but when those come I don't know. ERA will hover around 3.2-4.2 with most years being in the 3.4-3.8 range. It isn't a knock on him, it is just that the Sox have other RHP with much more upside. I'll agree with you on Giolito if he throws amore of strikes this year, walks 65+ batters averages over 93.5 mph on the fastball and still can't miss bats. I think Giolito is going to average around 94mph with his heater this year, could even be higher. Even last year, he averaged 92.8.

It isn't that they can't improve, it is that he doesn't trust Sox coaching/Player Development. I don't blame him one bit. Balta and I agree on a lot, except he's very pessimistic about the rebuild where I hover between mildly pessimistic to cautiously optimistic, depending on my mood at the given moment. Most of the time I'm pretty neutral. I completely understand that viewpoint, as there are many reasons to doubt the Sox player evaluation I'm higher on Moncada and Giolito than most, and I'm lower on Lopez/Collins/Madrigal than most. I really don't blame the Sox for Burger because they got stuck picking 11th in a 10 player draft.

Out of the youngish players on the roster, I see marginal room for growth from Lopez, moderate from Anderson and Rodon, and large from Moncada and Giolito. However, with large room for growth, also comes a large variance in probable outcomes. I think Lopez is what he is for the most part, with room for more Ks. I've given up on Rodon being an ace, but I still think he could be a #2. Same for Giolito, unless his offseason workouts and mechanical adjustments gain him more velocity. Moncada is all over the place, anywhere on the player spectrum from Byron Buxton to Jose Ramirez.

They're probably not winning 81 games this year, unless Moncada/Lopez/Giolito take a big step forward, Rodon becomes a TOR starter and Eloy comes up and rakes. Should they get Machado or Harper, the margin for error becomes a lot wider with those guys. I expect them to win 75-79 games if a lot of things go right, and if a lot of the young guys don't make improvements, and they don't land a whale, I expect them to lose at least 93 games. The only way they win 81+ games is with Machado/Harper+significant improvement from Moncada and two of Rodon/Lopez/Giolito.

2019 is about identifying a core for the window, and the 2019-20 offseason is to supplement the roster around that. Kopech getting hurt really sucks, but if it had to happen, now is the best timing. The only untouchables I have right now are: Eloy Moncada/Madrigal(completely dependent on Moncada's 2019-if Moncada takes a big step forward, he stays, if Moncada makes little to no progress, Madrigal stays if he tears up the minors) If both look bad lean toward Moncada or give them another season. Kopech Cease Robert and that is it. Anyone else is trade bait, including the 2B that you don't keep.

Nice post. My thoughts exactly. Don't get too attached to any of the Sox young players, because any and all of them could become trade bait, with the exceptions of Eloy and Robert. I don't think Robert is getting traded because of the money they spent to acquire him. the White Sox aren't the Red Sox, they probably won't trade a player with that type of monetary commitment. Kopech and Cease probably aren't going anywhere either.

Well sure. My point is that the chances are greater than zero, but in reality many magnitudes lower than 1%. Why would you risk getting what you want for .0001 % chance that you'll get hurt? It is non zero, but if you played 10K seasons you'd only get hurt enough to affect your contract in one of them. If you want to argue poor batted ball luck, that is another thing entirely. Teams should be smart enough to overlook that.

Holy hyperbole, Batman! Moncada was't absolutely awful. He struck out a lot, but he did a lot of other nice things. Adam Engel is a total, laughable embarrassment at the plate, If you think Engel and Moncada are the same type of hitter, I have some land in Louisiana to sell you.....

Agreed. That is the right thing to do.

I do too, but even with his failure last year I like Moncada exponentially more than Madrigal. The only way I'd like Madrigal is if he became the Ichiro Suzuki of second basemen.

I'm not a huge fan of Madrigal. I was just glad they took him because there were a lot of rumors about them taking Brady Singer #4 and I would have hated that even more. Madrigal is trade bait unless Moncada takes zero steps forward this year. Sox are still too concerned with floor in the draft for my liking. They have to start taking HS players at some point, as there is more room for growth with those players. They've taken one HS player in the 15 years and it was a disaster, I get it.(Hawkins) If you keep taking more shots, they'll hit eventually.

Under that assumption, you don't want either because the Sox are absolutely loaded with OF prospects. You get Harper or Machado because you want to accelerate the rebuild. If they land either, I wouldn't get attached to any of the Sox young players because they're all trade bait at that point.

We'll agree to disagree. We'll see who is correct in the end. I think you'll be surprised.

Miggy is old, Judge didn't miss the whole season and he was still really good when he played. Bryant I'll give you. Pollock is a good player, but nowhere near the level of HarpChado, and Pollock has been injured a lot over the years. There really are just a handful of position players that get hurt in a season, Those guys and Corey Seager are about all that come to mind. I've been arguing since about a week into the year that they're taking one year deals, and I don't see any reason why I should change my mind. They know their value, and they want to play for certain teams. If they don't get what they want this year, they'll play this year and go back on the market next year. There are a lot of factors going into their decision other than money, especially Harper.

I think they'd sign an 8/250 if they got to play where they wanted to.

I'm just saying not to discount those things happening. I would not be surprised at all if Harper and Machado took one year deals. I also wouldn't be surprised if the ST location was an important part of Machado's decision making process, It just seems to me that location is more important than money to both of these guys. Manny wants to play in NY and Harper wants to play for a national brand. I'd imagine if the Mets got involved with Machado it would be over pretty quickly and he'd sign with them.