Cknolls

QUOTE (kapkomet @ Nov 27, 2009 -> 10:39 AM) which gov't? The BEN and TIMMY SHOW!!!!

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Nov 27, 2009 -> 10:05 AM) Holy frijoles, I didn't know it was that high as a % of GDP. That isn't good. Also, strong dollar long term is good, but short term it will result in further losses in the equity markets. Not when the gov't is putting an artificial bid under the market. PPT working overtime today.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Nov 25, 2009 -> 10:18 AM) So, are you saying that they use the cash flow to pay down debts and bills, and then spend more on those cards because the balances are down? Thus, the retail sales impact? Just a thought. Maybe the thinking is: If we keep current on necessities, by the time the economy recovers enough, i.e. jobs, we can deal with the bank and the mortgage.

QUOTE (chunk23 @ Nov 24, 2009 -> 04:48 PM) It's too bad that the vocabulary disconnect is largely the cause of this, and despite there being completely rational explanations for the language used, they will obviously be ignored. Of course Fox News has called this Global Warming's Waterloo. Despite the obvious preponderance of evidence that indicates otherwise. I don't get the vitriol aimed against people who want to stop global climate change. Besides Al Gore being a champion for it, I don't know why it's such a politically divisive issue. What do global warming deniers believe the incentive is for those "making it up" is? Ask Kleiner Perkins?

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Nov 24, 2009 -> 10:38 AM) This brings up an oddity that I have noted lately, that is good for discussion here. One number the markets are sensitive to is consumer confidence. The assumption is that, when consumers are more confident, they spend more. More granular numbers are available too, like % of people who plan to spend $X in some period of time. Those numbers haven't recovered at all. And yet, the actual spending seen as reported by real sales numbers for retailers have risen, slightly, in recent months. My posit, which I think I've stated before, is that the lowering of spending by consumers shot lower than was really sustainable by the American market. Basically, Americans are so used to spending so much, that they couldn't hunker down THAT much, for THAT long. But a further point here is that, I think, the recession causes people to think, and say, they will cut down spending my X amount. But that doesn't mean they actually do it. Certainly, for those who are losing jobs or income, their cut backs will be real. But remember, even a huge jump in UE like we have seen in this recession, going from 6%-ish to 10%-ish (or 10%-ish to 17%-ish, depending on which number you want to use), is still only having that profound effect on 4 to 7% of the population. For most others, changes that effect them directly are smaller. They will continue to spend. Anyone else have a competing theory, as to why these numbers have diverged? People could be reprioritizing their debts. Using cash flow to pay credit cards and monthly bills and not their mortgages.

QUOTE (bmags @ Nov 24, 2009 -> 09:25 PM) I see it was natural and encouraged to destroy our dixie chicks cds after saying the inflammatory "we aren't proud of our president" statement. But criticizing someone for perpetrating mass conspiracy theories on a mainstream news network to an audience of milliions and contributing to a high charged atmospher, that's just crazy bulls***! Words don't matter, they're just blowing off steam. (unless they're muslims) Wow. FOX NEWS is now mainstream. I like the new bmags.

QUOTE (DukeNukeEm @ Sep 24, 2009 -> 11:52 AM) This is what happens when you demonize the Govt. QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Sep 24, 2009 -> 11:59 AM) I wouldn't completely rule it out though. QUOTE (DukeNukeEm @ Sep 24, 2009 -> 12:10 PM) Exactly. And when Glenn Beck or Michelle Bachmann give these already unstable people the impression that the census bureau is going to put their family in a concentration camp this is what you get. Violence was inevitable. http://www.kentucky.com/news/state/story/1032979.html I think we can safely rule it out now. But we should probably use up the rest of the tinfoil so as to get our monies worth.

http://www.thehill.com/homenews/house/6929...-150b-stock-tax Why don't we just call it the "Latest Transfer of Wealth Act.

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Nov 24, 2009 -> 10:41 AM) And you know this as fact how? Charles Krauthammer told you? Good One. I am hurt. Why is the bill written the way it is then, genius?

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Nov 24, 2009 -> 08:49 AM) That would do the opposite of setting the stage for his re-election. IF they were trying to help with his re-election, they'd have the benefits kick in BEFORE the election. Come on people we are smarter than this. The bill is a fraud. They cannot show the real cost over a ten year period because it is more than 2x the reported price.

Nov consumer confidence 49.5 vs. 47.3 Nov Richmond Fed index 1 vs. 8, October reading was a 7.

QUOTE (jasonxctf @ Nov 24, 2009 -> 10:15 AM) The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller home price index of 20 major cities rose 0.3 percent to 144.96 in September, the fourth monthly increase in a row. The seasonally adjusted index is now up more than 3 percent from its bottom in May, but still 30 percent below its peak in April 2006. But Y/Y Sept Case Shiller came in at -9.36% vs. -9.10 consensus. So potato putahtoh.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 24, 2009 -> 10:19 AM) No mention of the 0.7% downward reduction of Q3 GDP? Or the .5% revision to Personal consumption.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 23, 2009 -> 04:59 PM) In about 3 years, we better be at least on the path towards a balanced budget by the end of what will hopefully be his 2nd term (if we're not, that means you guys successfully blocked health care reform). Right, us guys. Because healthcare will reduce the deficit, right? LOL. Congress is already setting the stage for his re-election by not having the benefits of the bill kick in until 2013-2014.

Just look at Japan. They are approaching 200 % DEBT/gdp. Fighting deflation working out great for them. WE have already lost one decade, I believe we are on our way to numero 2. Maybe if we say we don't have to worry about deflation, enough, it may come true.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Nov 19, 2009 -> 01:28 PM) The stimulus was not primarily about deflation prevention, that was a secondary factor. Their decision whether or not to reign in stim spending will take that into consideration, but its not a one to one relationship as you hint here. Bernanke's greatest fear in the world is deflation.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 19, 2009 -> 11:16 AM) The big reason for foreclosures now is unemployment, not bad loans. There has been a transition in this sector. By looking at the unemployment numbers, that means we are no where near ready to recover. We might be able to build a statistical falsehood here that shows "recovery", much like the 3.5% JUMP IN GDP last quarter. But there is nothing that shows any real growth yet. This 3.5 % number is already going to be revised down to at least 2.5%.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Nov 19, 2009 -> 11:43 AM) There is all kinds of growth going on, its just not sustainable, long term, steep growth like we'd want. I've shown all sorts of it in here. Its recovery growth, which some might call bounces, but that is how things start. If you ignore all these, you ignore the bigger picture. Overall, the growth is not that strong, but it is certainly there. The question is more about how sustainable it is, long term. But you are right about foreclosures, the continued large UE numbers are causing much of the foreclosure problem. Resets and bad loans are not so much the major factor anymore. No argument there. You are like the chicken little of the markets. You have been in here for years predicting levels of doom that never happened, and according to most everyone expert I've read or spoken with, are extreme worst case scenarios. Like 4 or 5 SD out from probable. So forgive me if I take your posts on this with a gigantic grain of salt, when you say "period" about something many experts don't think will be the case. Deflation isn't a concern, at least in the near term. Only way its a concern is if the economy not only dips again in the next few years, but dips well below the current levels across the board. Virtually no one is predicting that. If that corner case did happen, we'd obviously have massive problems. Nothing is of concern near term. So when would deflation be a problem? What is near term? 2 years. Why haven't they reigned in the stimulus if deflation is not their concern?

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Nov 19, 2009 -> 10:44 AM) I think I linked in a story on foreclosure rates recently, the basics were that the rate is still very high, but that foreclosure notices have actually been going down, not up. The problem is, some of the decrease is due to a combination of mortgage rebuilds and foreclosure stalling programs. And only some of those will stick. Looking at all the indicators amalgamated, it appears to me we haven't peaked yet, but the rate of ascent has become very small, indicating a likelihood that it, like the rest of the housing sector, is moving the right direction. But again, the key to this and really everything, is employment. Employment sucks and will for years. Ergo housing will have a second leg down. Period. And pretty soon the gov't will move to 100% of the mortgage mkt. We will be praying for only a double dip. Deflation is the biggest worry. And when "they " can't "stimulate" anymore, buckle up and strap it down, Hawk. It will get fugly.

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Nov 18, 2009 -> 12:54 PM) Source? Balta? He was on Conan O'Brien.

Did Al Gore actually say that the interior of the Earth is several million degrees? And people fact check and make fun of PALIN? GMAFB This guy is a turd.

That are trying to reflate through higher stock prices at the expense of the dollar. Will not work. There are numerous divergencesa starting to form in the markets. Russell/Dow, Trannies/Dow, S&P/RSI, Trannies possibly putting in an MA topping formation, dollar down today ALONG WITH stocks. Be careful, risk is very high. The gov't is forcing people to take risk so they can achieve a decent return on their money. DON'T DO IT!!!! We have not seen the lows yet.

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Nov 18, 2009 -> 09:03 AM) Any chance we can split off the 200 Cowleotti bashing posts into another thread so that we can use this one for updates on the trade rumor? ^^^^^^^^^ Beat me too it.

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Nov 16, 2009 -> 07:20 AM) Perfect example. Up until now whenever KSM was mentioned we'd get this photo of him: Now that he may be tried in the states as a criminal they keep posting this photo: Yeah...no opinions used in that decision process. FWIW, O'Reilly used the top photo in a story yesterday about the trial.

Yesterday on CNBC, banking analyst Meredith Whitny said that there was "no way" banks were "adequately capitalized". Here is a quote from Keycorp's third quarter 10-Q: The FDIC-defined capital categories serve a limited supervisory function. Investors should not treat them as a representative of the overall financial condition of prospects of Keycorp or Keybank". HELLO, BANKING REGULATORS?