Lillian

I don't quite understand the front office's reluctance to commit to 4 years. Who in the Organization, would said player be blocking? Even if Avi develops into a real stud, all the Sox have is Eaton and Avi. Melky will be long gone, and out of Engel, May and Hawkins, isn't it highly unlikely that more than 1 or 2 of them becomes a better than average Major Leaguer? Adolfo is a long way from the Majors, so whomever the Sox sign should have a spot in their outfield, for quite a while. Unless the guy is over 30, there is little reason to worry about him playing on a big contract, at age 33. That's really still in a position player's prime, unless he gets hurt, or is terribly out of shape. I seriously doubt that they would actually hesitate to pay Cespedes for 4 years, his age 30 through 33 years, if the money is reasonable. It's more likely that this is just negotiating, as many of you have suggested.

The more that I've thought about it, the more convinced I have become. The player we acquire should be playing for another contract. I don't want to sign a guy to his last contract, and run the risk that he becomes significantly less motivated. So I don't care. Get a guy who will be a free agent in a couple years, or sign a longer deal, but with an opt out for the player. Whatever it takes to avoid having a guy on "easy street," with no more big pay days. For all we know, that is what motivated both Frazier and Cespedes to have career years, last season. I want that incentive to remain a part of their mental approach to their games.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jan 8, 2016 -> 02:35 PM) Often injured and huge home and away splits his entire career. Last year he was .243/.294/.464 on the road. If you don't like Cespedes' OBP, you aren't going to like GarGo's. No reason to give up top prospects for him when alternatives cost just money. Yes, I have seen the split stats. I always wonder how much of that is related to the physical location, and how much is a function of playing in front of the home crowd. That's why I qualified my remarks. If he were not going to approach his career numbers, at home in Colorado, then I agree with you. In fact, I wouldn't want to give up any of the Sox' top half dozen prospects, and spend that much money.

I want the power and the OBP to come from the hole in RF, and I want really solid defense at SS. I hope that the front office doesn't waste money, or a draft pick on signing an offensive SS.

Providing that there is a reasonable expectation that he would be able to hit outside of Colorado, he would be a very desirable option. He fits the 2 year window, is not unaffordable, left handed power bat, with high OBP and a right fielder. I'd give up Anderson for him, but then I don't value Anderson as much as most on this board do. To me, Anderson is one of those "toolsy" athletes, who has yet to establish that he is all that good at baseball. He plays a premium defensive position, and is very questionable there. He has not yet demonstrated that he has a good knowledge of the strike zone, striking out way too frequently, and not walking nearly enough. If he ends up having to be moved to CF, his offense would not play nearly as well there. There might be a reason that he is the 12TH ranked SS prospect, by MLB.com. If he has to move to CF, Jacob May is probably near his offensive equal, and a better defensive centerfielder than Anderson. I know that May finished with far less stellar numbers than Anderson, but I followed both, during the season, and until Jacob's concussion, he was running neck and neck with Tim, in several offensive categories.

He is also a left handed hitter, and you guys all know how much weight I give that consideration. Moreover, he kills RH pitching, which is just about all the Sox see, at least from starters. I don't think that he is going to cost that much in talent, given that he is owed $37Million, for these last two years of his contract. He certainly is not worth Quintana, and I wouldn't give up Fulmer for him either. What do the Rockies want most, prospects or established pitching? I'm afraid that I never have quite been able to fully comprehend the Colorado factor. Would it be reasonable to expect him to perform in Chicago, and in the A. L.? That's my biggest concern, even more than the injuries.

If they sign Cespedes, they don't need much more than good defense at SS. Saladino should be fine. I agree that the higher priority would then be a RH starter. We are all aware of the lack of depth, in that area.

QUOTE (bigruss22 @ Jan 8, 2016 -> 10:13 AM) LOL I get economics, but neither of those players are looking for those kinds of deals. Upton is either getting a megadeal or settling for a big 1 yr deal so he can maximize on the weak FA next year. Cespedes will want to capitalize on a career year, he'll take as much money as he possibly can. A 2 year deal makes no sense at age 30 for him. I'm sorry. I didn't mean to infer that you didn't "get" economics. However, I think you missed the point that this idea includes an opt out, after the first year. It is essentially what you are suggesting, with a little added security for the player, who has two guaranteed years, at a very generous salary, with the privilege to opt out, if he can do better.

QUOTE (bigruss22 @ Jan 8, 2016 -> 10:02 AM) And doesn't work for either of them, so what was the point of that? The point? The point is that there are lots of options for teams looking for bats this year, but not much next year, or the following. It's just a matter of supply and demand. If a player is young enough, he can play for a bigger pay day, in the next two years, and in the meantime, $25 Million per year isn't exactly "chopped liver". Of course, there is a risk for the players, but then that's just the nature of the "game", they're playing. I'm always mindful of the advantage of having guys stay "hungry" and motivated. Such a scenario would certainly do that.

QUOTE (blackmooncreeping @ Jan 8, 2016 -> 09:59 AM) Drop identical 2 year, $25 million a year deals with opt outs after each year in front of Cespedes and Upton and see if someone bites. That works for me.

QUOTE (bmags @ Jan 8, 2016 -> 09:49 AM) I think it is realistic that Upton is the one that goes short. He should get a huge contract next offseason as a 29 year old in a bad market. Davis/Cespy, I don't see it. So risky. How about a two year deal, with an opt out, after the first year? Of course, it doesn't provide a long term solution, but the front office seems much more concerned about avoiding a long term commitment. They have to make up their minds which they prefer, as they aren't going to be able to obtain a long term solution, without a long term commitment. Would he be worth $25 million per year, for 2 years, with that opt out?

QUOTE (ChiSox59 @ Jan 8, 2016 -> 09:44 AM) I am somewhat warming to the 1 or two year deal idea. I could see Upton or Davis perhaps liking the idea when looking at next years FA crop. We will recoup the lost pick next year anyway if they sign somewhere else. I'd prefer that to paying Cespedes north of $25M AAV over 5 or more years. I don't think Davis is a realistic option in the OF, however. If the Sox were somehow able to acquire Davis, he would not see the outfield. He would be a DH, and they could then just put a decent defender in RF, who could make some kind of contribution. Hell, I'd be satisfied with Shuck out there, and batting in the #2 hole. if Davis hit between Abreu and Frazier, that would that be a scary lineup. Even Avi would be alright in that scenario, with a good defensive replacement, for the late innings. Oh, and La Roche? Same answer; who cares?

"Caulfield" wrote; "Pretty much nobody in history has moved from SS to the outfield successfully, though." I realize that it wasn't in teal, but I read it as sarcasm. Most of you seem to have taken the remark seriously. "Caulfield" can speak for himself, but I just wanted to state my interpretation, especially in view of all of today's criticism being made of his remarks.

I agree with the notion that the Front Office is posturing. This is likely a negotiating ploy. They did not trade a bunch of prospects, to acquire two guys, with only two years remaining, before free agency, to end up not being competitive this season. They clearly intend to upgrade both the outfield and the offense. They need a clean up hitter, and Cespedes is probably the best bet. Moreover, why would Abreu be recruiting him, if they weren't seriously intent on acquiring him? The question is; What kind of contract will it take? I still favor giving him more years, but with the contract front loaded, and an opt out, for the player after either the 2ND or 3RD year. We don't talk enough about the positive effect of having the player remain motivated, and playing for a contract, even after he signs one of these deals. It's just human nature to become a little complacent, after being guaranteed tens of millions of dollars. If the Sox don't want to be locked into a long term deal, structure the contract in such a way that the player will not only be incentivized to stay motivated to perform, but also encouraged to leave, after that point at which you don't want to be on the hook. Of course there is no guarantee that he will, in fact, opt out, but at least you are providing a huge incentive for him to do so. Again, how about something like $25 Million per year, for the first 3 years, with an opt out after 2 years? The final 3 years of the deal could be at something substantially less, like perhaps $15 Million per year. The end of that 2ND year would be very interesting, as Cespedes would have to weigh giving up the guarantee of big money, for one more year, in exchange for getting a better deal for the last years of the existing contract, or even extending it. Adding to the equation would be the weak free agent class, which would be expected to improve the following year.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Jan 7, 2016 -> 06:19 AM) Markakis hit 3 HRs in nearly 700 ABs. His ISO last year was .080. For perspective, Carlos Sanchez's ISO was .103. He may have a nice OBP, but no way in hell am I committing $11M/per for three years to a corner OF with those kind of power numbers. I concur, and was just about to post that, at this point, he isn't much more than an expensive version of J. B. Shuck.

If one of you wants to conduct an ambitious research project, take a look at the kinds of pitches he saw, in the various seasons. I wouldn't be surprised to discover that when he came over from Cuba, he saw mostly fast balls. After his initial success, the League adjusted and began to feed him a steady diet of breaking balls, which were really effective, from RH pitchers. He then made the adjustment, and is now a more well rounded hitter, who has learned to hit breaking balls, from right handers. You have to wonder how many pitchers in Cuba have good cutters and sliders. It was likely a challenge for him. The numbers would tell us, but I'll leave it to someone else to see if the stats support my hypothesis. In any case, after looking more closely at the stats, I really hope they sign him. To me, he is potentially the biggest impact player of this year's free agent class. I am officially on the "La Potencia Train"!!! (The Power Train)

I just realized that he was better vs. RHP in 2014, as well. He had a tough time with them in his 2ND season, but has been terrific against them, ever since. I love a guy on our roster, who can hit RH pitching, because most of the tough lefties in our League, are on our team. Moreover, it lessens the need for a left handed bat. He would be fine, hitting behind Abreu and in front of Frazier.

In responding further to JRL's skepticism, I would take any year of Cespedes' production, except perhaps his 2ND season. His next worst year was his 3RD season, in which he produced the following: 36 double 6 triples 22 homers 100 RBI .260 AVG .301 OBP .450 SLG .751 OPS The low OBP is the only troubling statistic, during that season. So, how do we explain his poor 2ND season, just prior to the year he put up the Stats, which I just listed? Perhaps he struggled, as the League discovered his weaknesses, and he needed time to adjust. That hypothesis might be supported by the fact that he really struggled against right handed pitching, in his second season. I would guess that the League may have fed him a pretty steady diet of breaking pitches, low and away, and he had to learn to lay off those pitches. Last year he was even better against Righties than he was against Lefties: 38 doubles 5 triples 27 homers 80 RBI's .310 AVG .338 OBP .571 SLG .909 OPS vs. RHP. VERY IMPRESSIVE INDEED!!!!

QUOTE (JRL @ Jan 6, 2016 -> 08:13 PM) I'm confused. The numbers he had his whole career? Sure I think he can sustain those in the cell. He can be a 735-750 OPS guys with 22-25 HR a year getting on base less than 30% of the time. The numbers he had last year? well I don't think he can keep those up, since they are so drastically different from anything he's done before that. If it was a true improvement it likely would have been gradual. Not he was one player in 2013 and 2014 and then all of a sudden magically a wholly different player in 2015. I'm curious. To what do you attribute his improvement last year? Are you suggesting that it was a fluke, or do you suspect PEDS? The guy is talented, and he did indeed produce what he produced. No one is arguing that last year was not an outlier, but the issue is how do we account for it? Was it spending those months in the National League, or is it just possible that he has matured as a player, and adjusted to the tougher pitching in the Big Leagues, compared to his previous career in Cuba?

How would signing Fowler to a 3 year $42 Million deal, and trading for Ethier look? Line up vs RHP: Projected OBP CF Eaton .355 LF Fowler .360 1B Abreu .360 RF Ethier .365 At his age, he could sit against a few lefties, just to rest him 3B Frazier .310 DH Melky .335 2B Lawrie .315 C A. Avila .340 His career OBP is very good vs RHP & he platoons with Navarro SS Saladino ? @ $14 Million per year for Fowler & $17.5 and 18 Million per year for the next 2 years for Ethier And what to do about La Roche? Bench player, back up first baseman, LH pinch hitter, or whatever. Rest of the bench: Shuck, Navarro, L. Garcia Avi and Sanchez to Charlotte Could the Sox really add $32Million per year in salaries, for the next 2 years? What would LA want for Ethier? Or, could they pay part of his contract in exchange for a piece the Sox could afford to give up? I'm obviously bored, and impatient, like everyone else here.

QUOTE (blackmooncreeping @ Jan 6, 2016 -> 02:00 PM) Yes, I agree Melky is the odds on guy to hit in the 2 hole as of today, by default. I think someone with more speed and on-base production would be a better fit, and make Melky more productive as a run producer down the lineup. With Gordon off the board, none of the FA outfielders left really profiles as a number 2 hitter, do they? Fowler does, for what it's worth, or should I say; "for what he's worth". Not much, apparently.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 6, 2016 -> 11:03 AM) That player will probably be instantly our 4th best prospect, by a long shot, behind some combination of Fulmer, Anderson, and the 10th pick. That makes sense to me. The 4TH best prospect, in the organization, sounds intriguing, and certainly worth protecting. Thanks

QUOTE (Jose Paniagua @ Jan 6, 2016 -> 10:59 AM) Alexei might give you Desmond's 2016 numbers at a fraction of the cost. Fowler provides OBP and at least is something ok from the left side. Those are needs for us. Works for me, and saves the draft pick. By the way, just how valuable do you guys think that 30TH pick in the Draft is?

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 6, 2016 -> 10:52 AM) If we miss out on Upton and Cespedes, I'd be more interested in Desmond than Fowler. Career OBP of .312, and just .300 over the last two years. I'll take Saladino, save the money and the draft pick, and hope for the best.

I much prefer Cespedes, however if the Sox don't sign him, it wouldn't be terrible to have Fowler's career OBP of .363 batting in the #2 hole. If I'm not mistaken that would tie him with Abreu for the highest career OBP guy in the lineup. My biggest concern remains that his arm is questionable for a right fielder, and the Sox need a right fielder. It would certainly not cost nearly the money that signing Cespedes is going to cost.