Lillian

Hernandez obviously has a great eye and exceptional plate discipline. To me, the big question is what would he hit when pitchers challenge him much more than to what he has apparently become accustomed. Major League pitchers would likely not nibble around the corners with a guy so adept at taking a base on balls. If he can bunt. hit line drives, and hit behind the runner on hit and run plays, he could be an ideal #2 hitter. I'd love to see a guy with an OBP of over .350 in that 2 hole, and let Melky bat in the middle of the order, while DH'ing.

QUOTE (fathom @ Apr 22, 2016 -> 07:21 AM) Think the obvious solution reading all these internal solutions is Hahn needs to make a trade sooner rather than later. Agreed. Any ideas? You know what I want; a middle of the order left handed bat. However, with Morneau and Ethier injured, who is left? I don't want Bruce. What would it take to get CarGo from the Rockies, and would you be willing to do it?

Without going outside the organization, here is my humble assessment and suggestion: Jackson has been squaring up a lot of pitches, and hitting into very bad luck. He looks like he could still be the career .270 hitter, with a respectable OBP, whom the Sox acquired. He is young enough, with a long enough track record to garner some confidence in his ability to perform. We can't minimize the fact that he anchors the outfield defense. I'd bat him either in the 2 hole, or 9TH. Versus RHP, Melky needs to bat between Abreu and Frazier, both because he is the only viable run producing left handed bat, and because he seems to hit better in the middle of the lineup. I like him at DH much better than LF, where although he has made the plays, every ball hit to him seems like an "adventure". Saladino is a much better defensive shortstop than Rollins, who has clearly lost a step. He should get at least half of the playing time. Tyler could hit against all LH starters and get a few starts vs. right handed starters. I love his baseball acumen, and wonder if he might be a decent number two hitter. He can bunt, but I don't know about his ability to hit to right, on hit and run plays. Avi should be sent to AAA, and get a chance to play the outfield and hit every day. Maybe he needs more reps, as Robin suggested, with his new approach, until it becomes completely natural and comfortable and until he gains more confidence in it. Coats seems like the logical choice. He would make that outfield defense really solid, with him in left, Jackson in center and Eaton in right. Although he isn't left handed, he hits RHP at least as well as he hits lefties, and is currently hitting .415 vs. RHP in his 41 at bats. Lineup Vs. RHP: CF Eaton SS Saladino 1B Abreu DH Melky 3B Frazier 2B Lawrie C Avila LF Coats CF Jackson If Saladino doesn't fill the 2 hole, he could be switched with Jackson, in the order. There isn't anything especially dramatic, or creative in these suggestions, but it would shake things up a bit, and suggest to everyone that the organization demands some accountability, and is not apathetic about a complete failure of the offense to produce. There is also the intangible benefit of rewarding a guy like Coats, who has apparently worked very hard, and is showing some marked improvement.

Is it even close between Rollins and Saladino, defensively? Given his range and arm strength, my guess is that Saladino is significantly better than the aging Rollins.

I was there that afternoon, sitting down the right field line, about half way between first base and the foul pole. I remember watching the ball sail by, standing there with my mouth open. What a blast!!

Thanks "Shysocks".

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Apr 19, 2016 -> 01:18 PM) Nobody is denying that if Frazier has a Dunn/Laroche-esque season that the Sox are in trouble. They are only saying its been two weeks so lets stop saying the Sox are in trouble if Frazier has a Dunn/Laroche-esque season over and over. We know Perhaps I didn't articulate my point very well. Of course, not having Frazier produce would be disastrous. I was trying to revisit the old discussion about "protection" in a lineup, in the context of this team's current struggles. It is not simply the lack of production from Frazier, but the impact it has on Abreu, hitting in front of him. Do you give much credence to the entire notion that it is important for Abreu to have someone batting behind him, whom the opposition respects enough that they won't pitch around him? The assertion made by the article, which I referenced, was that it's irrelevant. For my part, I reject that assertion, and I was citing Abreu's current struggles as an example of how the lack of protection does indeed seem to be very relevant. The poster, who cited the article was very convinced that the author had provided enough statistical evidence to corroborate his hypothesis. It just never seemed logical to me. I recognize that it's a small sample size and that the cause and effect correlation is difficult to determine, but doesn't this seem like an example of the kind of impact that the lack of protection can have on an otherwise good hitter?

A year or two ago, someone on this forum cited an article, which refuted the conventional wisdom regarding the importance of "protection" for the best hitters in a lineup. The assertion was that having a good hitter, following a given run producer had little effect on the performance of that hitter. The article provided statistical data to back up the assertion that the entire notion of "protection" for hitters is fallacious. I remember reacting with skepticism. On the one hand the data seemed to prove the hypothesis, but it just didn't make any sense. How could a lineup consisting of just one really dangerous hitter not be adversely affected? Why would opposing teams give that one good hitter anything to hit, when they could easily go around him, and elect to take their chances with the rest of the relatively easy outs, in the lineup? The makeup of this current Sox offense would seem to be a case in point. Why would you give Abreu anything to hit, when you can go around him to face Frazier? If Jose chases bad pitches, which he appears to be doing, you might get him out. If he takes his walk, isn't it better to gamble on getting out the likes of Frazier, Cabrera and Garcia? Melky has been hot, recently but he is not a big home run threat. Until Frazier and, or someone else gets hot, and garners some respect, the best Abreu might be able to do is get on base with a walk, only to be stranded there, as a result of the ineptitude of this pathetic offense. The front office counted on Frazier to be the clean up hitter, to provide protection to Abreu, as well as being a big run producer, in his own right. If he doesn't figure it out soon, this team is going to struggle mightily to score runs.

I had never watched Frazier hit, until this year. I'm trying to figure out how he ever was able to put up the numbers he did. He doesn't even look "dangerous," as Hawk likes to say. Surely he has altered something in his mechanics and approach. This can't be the guy who hit 25 home runs, the first half of last season.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Apr 18, 2016 -> 04:06 PM) Ugh. Fun with numbers. You are trying to compare apples and oranges here. #1 steroid era, vs now. Offense is completely different. You have to compare equalized numbers. #2 Full season numbers versus 12 game numbers. Because of the small sample size of a season we have so far, we have WAY more outliers, and numbers haven't normalized yet. Once the season happens, numbers will cluster towards the middle, and the crazier outliers on both ends will moderate. #3, no one is really counting on a big improvement. People are counting on career normal-ish years from guys who are established hitters. Guys like Jose Abreu and Todd Frazier aren't going to hit like this all year long. Abreu is almost 200 OPS points under his career average. Todd Frazier is about 275 OPS under his career average. Those are the biggest two bats in the line up. No, I'm not comparing "apples to oranges". I made a specific relative comparison to the rest of the League, which minimizes the disparities, to which you allude. If they can be League average, they will be fine with their pitching. In 2005, they were in the middle of the pack, on most offensive numbers. You are absolutely correct in your assertion that established hitters like Abreu and Frazier will hit much better, as the season wears on. I don't know why this is so controversial. The fact is that our offense has not been good, for a while now. None of us should be worried about Eaton, Cabrera, and Abreu. Those guys have a good enough track record and are still young. However, we have lots of question marks: Is Rollins washed up, or could Saladino adequately contribute, in his place? Is Lawrie ready to finally fulfill his promise? Ditto for Avi Can Jackson get back to his career numbers, after a couple of sub par seasons? Was Frazier's second half last year, an aberration and will he finally be a National Leaguer, who hits with the Sox? Is Avila capable of producing somewhere near his earlier career stats? Every team has question marks, and the Sox are no different. Given those doubts, again I simply say, so far, not very encouraging, but I agree it's early. To reiterate; "We'll see". Some just love to argue. That is not my intent. Isn't it always more constructive to try to reach some consensus on such topics? Here is on what we can probably agree: 1) The offense will be better than it has been, so far. 2) It should be better than last year's. 3) There are still several significant question marks. 4) If the offense does not markedly improve, the Sox are in trouble.

QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Apr 18, 2016 -> 01:27 PM) 2005 Sox were 11th in a 14-team AL in OBP. I don't think that is a valid comparison. Yes, they were 11TH out of 14 A.L. teams. However, their OBP in 2005 was .322 which was just .007 points from being tied with two other teams, for 6TH. Moreover, the team slugging percentage was .425 which tied them for 7TH. It was a productive offense and was good enough, with the great pitching, that year. If our pitching holds up, and this team can be similarly productive, they'll be fine. Last year's numbers were no where near the 2005 offense, and most of us are counting on a substantial improvement, this season. But then that is the big question, isn't it? It's very early, but so far, not so good. We'll see.

For all of you who continue to stress that the Sox are going to do better than their current .278 OBP; that is not the question. Of course, they will do better than that. I'm confident that no one here believes otherwise. The question is, will their on base percentage, and the rest of their offensive stats be somewhere around league average? With their pitching, that is probably all they need to do. However, if they end up back near the worst offensive teams in the League, they are almost certainly not going to be contenders.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Apr 18, 2016 -> 08:04 AM) If you really think a .278 team OBP is going to be what it is, there isn't one player alive that could fix it to a point where it would be acceptable. Where did I say that I think the team OBP will be what it is now, at the end of the season? My point is that we have been virtually last in OBP for quite a while now. Do you seriously want to argue that On Base % is not a big issue for this team? You would be in disagreement with most baseball analysts, who seem to ascribe a very high value to this statistic. But then, since I made the assertion, I should have expected that you would completely disagree. That's fine. We don't have to agree. However, please don't misrepresent what I write. Again, I didn't say that I thought the Sox would end up with an OBP of .278. What I did say is that their relatively poor on base percentage is a concern. It has been a concern. It is currently a concern, and I contend that it's a concern going forward. Do you agree with that?

QUOTE (shysocks @ Apr 18, 2016 -> 08:20 AM) The positions that Lawrie and Frazier are sliding into posted OBP's of .266 and .272 last year, so yes, it is a trend which is likely to improve by those additions. That is a good point, by which I'm somewhat encouraged. Thank you. Hey, whatever happened to Yadiel Hernandez? I don't see where he has signed with anyone yet. He was an On Base "machine" in Cuba, and we discussed the idea of trying to acquire him, but I can't find any recent news.

The Sox team On Base Percentage is now .278. That is just a few points above Oakland and Tampa Bay, which is last in the League. Last year, the Sox were virtually tied for last in the League, with Minnesota. This is a trend which is not likely to be improved by the additions of Lawrie and Frazier, who own a collective, career OBP of .315. And some think that concerns over this constitute premature, irrational "panic". OK, we'll see. I hope the optimists are correct. They have the payroll flexibility to try to fix this, but unfortunately there doesn't seem to be anyone available. The most discouraging thing to me is that there isn't one guy in the Minors, who could offer any help. I'd be willing to part with Anderson, if the Sox could fix this glaring weakness. Who could they target in a trade, at this point?

This slow start by the offense may turn out to be a blessing. Given the team's early success on the road, and the terrific pitching, if they had been hitting better, Hahn and Williams. would likely be patting themselves on the back, while sitting back and staying pat with the roster. Especially following the productive hitting in Spring Training, it's likely they wouldn't be very motivated to go after another bat. This very slow start to the offense may provide a wake up call to the front office. Count me among the optimists here. I actually think that this team is very close to being a really serious contender. Believing that they are perhaps just one more solid hitter away from being a championship caliber team can hardly be considered pessimistic. I just think that it would be a shame not to try to put the finishing touches on this roster. It is curious how so many were convinced that the Sox needed to acquire one of the 3 highly sought after free agent outfielders, and yet having failed to do so, now it seems that anyone who expresses concern over the offense is an irrational pessimist. There may not be any viable options out there, but that does not mean that any concerns over this offense are misplaced. I hope that the front office won't leave any stone unturned, in an effort to try to put this team over the top.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Apr 17, 2016 -> 08:52 AM) Instead of stressing about what is going to go wrong, people could just enjoy what is going right. Some of us are not stressing over "what is going to go wrong," but rather over what has gone wrong, for quite a while now. I remember all too well the many games last year, in which Sale and Quintana pitched great, but the offense couldn't score enough to get them a win. The winning record aside, we are just wondering if the front office has sufficiently upgraded this offense enough to reverse that frustrating trend. Of course, the players who are struggling are not likely to do this poorly all season. The question is how much better will they do. What do you expect to get from all of the new guys on the roster? Do you think that Lawrie and Frazier will improve on their career numbers? I certainly hope that we can look forward to better than their combined career .315 OBP, which I pointed out in a previous post.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Apr 17, 2016 -> 07:36 AM) The offense is going to get better, but it still looks like it will be a problem. And even if the pitching staff doesn't regress, which is basically impossible, we're not going to stay this lucky. A winning record does not prevent you from acknowledging flaws with the team and if you're Rick Hahn you need to act on them as quickly as possible. My sentiments, exactly. Thank you.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Apr 17, 2016 -> 07:01 AM) Hahn knows they are screwed. He knows White Sox fans are way too smart to buy tickets to see a team that wins. Why is it anything positive is always something that can't be sustained, and anything negative is just how things are no matter the sample size? I'm curious, what do project for the season totals from Frazier, Lawrie and Avi?

Wouldn't you love to know how management really feels about this team? They can't be naive enough to be optimistic and swayed by the early wins. Don't you suspect that Hahn knows this offense is not well enough constructed to be a serious contender? The question is, how in the world are they gong fix it, at this point?

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Apr 16, 2016 -> 09:50 PM) It's not a left handed bat necessarily. It's a bat. Frazier needs to come out of his coma....if the Sox are going to pay that much for a hitter, he needs to hit. The problems aren't because he hits from the right side. The can also switch Garcia out and try some other guys (Sands, and, dare I suggest, Saladino once in a while). If we can throw 4 lefties in the rotation, we can use right handed bats. They just need to hit. I agree with your assertion that the need is for another solid hitter, period. He doesn't have to necessarily bat left handed. My point has always been that we don't face many good southpaws, because most of the best ones are on our roster. If the Sox could acquire a right handed hitter, who can hit RHP, that would be fine. However, that would likely cost them even more than a guy whose stats are not that impressive, but who at least hits RHP. Therefore, it's more likely that he would be left handed. Here are the career and current stats for Lawrie and Frazier, vs RHP: Frazier: Career vs. RHP .252 .317 .446 .763 Currently stats vs. RHP .179 .220 .359 .578 Lawrie: Career vs. RHP .259 .313 .414 .728 Currently stats vs. RHP .250 .289 .306 .595 Their combined career .315 OBP vs. RHP is what troubles me. Those are the two "big bats" which the front office acquired in the off season, which are supposed to help turn this offense around. I'm not encouraged. Moreover, we don't yet know how Frazier will do facing A.L. pitching. They need another bat, or this team is likely to face a lot of heart breaking losses, in low scoring games. What a waste of a great pitching staff. The Sox have been lucky to start the season facing sub .500 teams. Oakland, Cleveland without Brantley and Minnesota didn't pose much of a challenge. It's going to get a whole lot tougher.

I understand that some of you don't share my concern over the lack of a left handed middle of the order bat. It might just be coincidental, but please note that the two guys, who are leading the team in hitting are the left handed hitters, Eaton and Cabrera, and all of Melky's hits so far are batting left handed. The OBP of our right handed hitters, with the exception of Abreu, is not likely to be very good. I'm not optimistic about Frazier and Lawrie getting on base at an above average rate and Avi is a huge question mark, at this stage of his career. I will be very surprised if this glaring need is not addressed by the front office, very soon. They can't afford to waste this terrific pitching. I have no idea how they are going to accomplish it, but I'd be very surprised if Hahn is not working hard on this issue. It was questionable enough, when they elected to depend upon LaRoche, but with him gone, it's obvious that they have a big void. What is really frustrating is how they don't even have a single viable, future candidate in the Minors. At this point, I'd be willing to trade Anderson and stretch the payroll, if it would bring in that bat, for at least a couple more years. The Sox are very lucky to be 8 and 3 with this offense. While they have played all but two of their games on the road, they haven't faced very good competition.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Apr 16, 2016 -> 06:34 PM) I would think currently the only candidate I could think of that would definitely be available at a low price is Jay Bruce. He obviously would be a gamble. I just don't think middle of the order bats are available right now at a price that makes sense. Eventually they will be. Let's hope that it's soon.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Apr 16, 2016 -> 02:58 PM) What is getting old is in your quest for a middle of the order left handed bat, you suggest hitters who aren't middle of the order hitters anymore. Sizemore hadn't played in 3 seasons yet you thought he would make a fine clean up hitter, Panda sucked last year and really was no better than Conor Gillaspie the year before, that was before his got even heavier to the point he belt exploded on a swing and a miss the other day. Panda is eating his way out of baseball. If he wasn't owed the money he was owed, he probably would be stuffing his face right now somewhere as an ex ball player. He is a talented guy, it is a shame he either won't get the help he needs to put himself in a better position to perform, or he just can't do it. It isn't like he has to be all that well conditioned to play baseball. But he is off the charts now, and going the wrong way. It is one of those signings where you just knew what was going to happen. The guy has played well fat before, but he is getting older and fatter. I would think a professional athlete being paid what he is being paid would want to be in the physical condition he needed to be in to provide the most value. From some of his comments last year, it seems like he doesn't really give a s***. He is content getting paid . I guess that I do tend to explore some pretty desperate alternatives, in my never ending quest for a left handed hitter. I'm the first to admit that. However, don't you agree that the Sox do in deed need a left handed bat? Right now, Melky is pretty much the only guy who can break up the string of Abreu, Frazier, Lawrie and Avi. Yes, you're right. I do obsess over that void, on the Sox roster. You will note that our offense has pretty much stunk, during these last few seasons, that I have been harping on this topic. If these guys were getting it done, all from the right side, it would be less of an issue. Rick Hahn has himself, similarly expressed the need for a left handed bat. His choice of LaRoche was a failure, and Kenny Williams' pick of Dunn, wasn't exactly a smashing success, when you consider the cost. So I guess my suggestions haven't been much worse, and would have cost a lot less. They're just lucky LaRoche bowed out of the remainder of his contract. I wish that this organization would finally address this need, and acquire a decent left handed, power bat. Then we could all stop speculating about these desperate possible solutions. Until then, the "quest" continues. Do you have any realistic candidates, whom you would like to suggest?

To all of you who are complaining about having raised this idea again: I stated, shortly after posting it, that I agree that it's a bad idea, especially now that he appears to have a serious shoulder injury. My original interest was based upon the fact that his career numbers vs. RHP are pretty intriguing: .298 .352 .484 He is still only 29 and I was speculating that Boston might eat enough of his salary to make it palatable. I assume that the wise crack about Sizemore was yet another of the never ending references to my ill advised fascination with his potential "comeback". Will I never live that one down? LOL I still don't think that it was a foolish suggestion. That was a couple of years ago, when Sizemore was still only 31. He's the same age as Cano and Sin Chu Soo, who had both just signed huge free agent contracts. Back then, as now, the Sox needed a left handed bat, with Dunn retiring. Hey, he would have been a better gamble than signing La Roche. At least we wouldn't have had to commit to more than one year, and with almost no impact on the payroll. It would have saved us the whole disrupting fiasco over Adam and his son. Sizemore didn't make the comeback, on which I wanted to gamble. So what? What kind of a gamble did La Roche turn out to be? And he was 35 when the Sox signed him.