scenario

Not trying to stir this up again. However, I found an interesting post on a Cincy fan site from someone suggesting he is a scout who had some info to share on Bailey and a potential trade. "Guys, let me clear up some Homer Bailey issues. I am not sure when Bailey began having his problems but lets first clear up when Bailey's problem: his knee. Literally. Before the 2005 season he had to have it scoped and he didn't have anymore problems with it to at least to the end of the 2006 season. I scouted Homer Bailey starting in the 2006 instructional season and was sorta disappointed. Homer generally is comfortable hitting in the 93-96 range while dialing it up to 97-98 at times. But he also had a nice power curve that was fairly developed at least by his 2006 footage, especially mid-year which is why the Reds were confident to promote him to AA if I had to guess. But in the 2006 instructional league he wasn't as good. His fastball was more around 92-94 which isn't surprising, Homer had worked at those speeds before rather than the more common 94-95 range in AA, but generally in the instructional league, you do have times of full speed pitching and I never saw the consistant higher velocities he demonstrated in his first 2 minor league seasons. More importantly, his curveball, a power 11-5 variety was duller than it had been, especially in his AA stint. That was a sign obviously something was wrong. It continued in the 2007 and by spring he had pretty much lost his curveball. Now, he did have a return stint late in the 2007 season where he was "close" to his previous AA form. But not quite. I don't know what happened after he went down to Sarasota for a pitching rehab stint, but he looked better upon returning. So comes the 2007 instructional season and I expect to see the Homer Bailey which had been advertised. How wrong I was. He was now down to 91-92 and his curveball was truly gone. Nothing was left, nada. Talk about worried. That of course, no surprise, was the harbinger of a very disappointing 2008 season for Homer. Now, let me tell you what I believe happened to Homer and how I "told" it was resolved: 1.Homer Bailey's mechanics depend on a leg driven overhand throwing motion that is easy on the arm, but requires alot of leg movement and extension to drive the torque in his arm. Basically taking pressure off the arm and putting it on the legs. If he is not getting the proper balance in his legs, he can't get the arm torque to drive his velocity. He also can't get on top of his curveball which causes it to roll to the plate, which I believe is the bigger issue than even the loss of velocity. Homer is a 1/2 power pitcher. He doesn't rely on fancy movement or finesse. He must throw in the mid-90's and finish people off with his curveball. He is working on a slider,2 seamer and changeup, but for a guy this young, it takes awhile to develope those extras. 2.The Reds reaction was totally wrong. First they thought he was having lower back/groin area issues. Not only was that wrong, it was the improper balance that caused the "groin injury"(infamous?) in the first place. Then after his disappointing 2007 instructional season, they thought he was a basketcase and needed to tweak his mechanics to give him a "better state of mind". This just made a bad situation worse. His mechanics came completely unglued and unbalanced. He didn't know how to throw without a windup and he was completely lost for most of the season. 3.Resolution. When Walt Jocketty was made GM, one of his "to do lists" was findout what was wrong with Homer. He gave him 2 looks if I remember right that of course failed miserably(unsurprisingly). Jocketty like we all did in the scouting world, knew Homer was not getting the balance he needed. Now Walt like Krivsky thought it was lower back/groin area issues AGAIN. But Walt taking the information from the scouts, had a hunch and he got his confirmation when Bailey confirmed his knee had been bothering him badly since late April. Oh yeah, Walt also found out Homer had been have "discomfort" in his knee since 2006. Guys, this type of stuff will drive a GM batty. Homer already had a "wounded duck" reputation going back to his secrecy of the 2005 knee scope that drove the Reds crazy. Now he almost ruined his career with that kind of thinking. Homer then puts on a knee brace, goes into the AAA playoffs and what do you know. He looks like Homer Bailey. Mid-90's fastball that was touching occassionally at 97. Nasty 11-5 curveball that would freeze the batter at point. I wasn't at the game but my colleagues who attended were amazed. Welcome back Homer Bailey. Really sad when you think about it. Homer wasted 2 years. Bats manager Rick Sweet almost cried. I got my confirmation at this years instructional. A dominating performance. He made Jay Bruce look terrible, he couldn't touch his curveball(another thread disussion, that is a worrying problem Jay has). Bailey IMO is the 2008 offseason guy everybody wants. Jocketty would be crazy to give him away from a aging player like Dye. His refuting this "source" was quick and swift. Dye may end up a Red, but not for Bailey. Bailey has more value than Dye if I had to guess."

Interesting rumor if true... but I doubt it has much merit. Sounds like an Orioles reporter making s*** up because things were slow. What better way to get his fan-base excited than to drum up a new Brian Roberts rumor? Especially one that would bring back young pitching. And the fact that Floyd is from the area even draws more Maryland/DC area reader attention. Trade a popular star with one year left on a contract for a young rising-star pitcher with ties to the area. Sounds like a perfect formula for a rumor to get Orioles fans chirping, doesn't it? Color me skeptical.

LOL. I was wondering if this was going to happen. And here I go getting all serious and everything. Well... useful information for men with foreskins... and the women who love them. LOL.

Yeah. And I went down the medical path assuming that was a possible concern of hers. But it may not be. Could be just a preference. If that's the case, I think some type of negotiation is appropriate. Quid pro quo.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 2, 2009 -> 12:49 PM) Nice site. I hadn't seen that one before. Thanks. Yeah. I love minorleaguesplits.com It slices and dices minor league info in a way I haven't found anywhere else.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 2, 2009 -> 12:44 PM) I was actually trying to find how much CF the kid has played, but there isn't much detail I can find on his minor league time. Anyone got any solid info on exactly how much CF Lillbridge has played? Played there early in his college career. Hasn't played CF in the minors. He's played 99%+ of his time at shortstop. (I think we typed our answers at the same time caulfield.)

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 2, 2009 -> 12:31 PM) Any chance at Lillbridge ending up in CF instead of Owens? I think there is a chance that could happen if both he and Getz hit well in spring training. That would force Ozzie to consider where to play both. Then Lillibridge's experience in CF and stolen base ability would come into play. It could also happen if Owens gets hurt... which seems to almost be an annual occurrence. I know it would create some heartache in the Anderson camp if Lillibridge played instead of Brian. Just depends who's hitting better and Ozzie's desire to inject more speed in the lineup.

Aaron sure capitalized on his big year in Philly, didn't he? Good for him. If he continues to produce like he did in 2008, it will obviously be a poor deal for the Giants... but nowhere near as stupid as some of the other signings they've had.

QUOTE (Soxy @ Jan 2, 2009 -> 10:46 AM) That is probably only an issue if he has "hygiene" issues. But it sounds spurious. If that is true, then you should see much higher cervical cancer rates in western Europe relative to America. And I doubt that is the case. Or that women married to Jewish guys have the lowest rates of cervical cancer. New England Journal of Medicine - April 2002 Research Results: Penile HPV (human papillomavirus) was detected in 166 of the 847 uncircumcised men (19.6 percent) and in 16 of the 292 circumcised men (5.5 percent). After adjustment for age at first intercourse, lifetime number of sexual partners, and other potential confounders, circumcised men were less likely than uncircumcised men to have HPV infection (odds ratio, 0.37; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.16 to 0.85). Monogamous women whose male partners had six or more sexual partners and were circumcised had a lower risk of cervical cancer than women whose partners were uncircumcised (adjusted odds ratio, 0.42; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.23 to 0.79). Results were similar in the subgroup of men in whom circumcision was confirmed by medical examination. Conclusions: Male circumcision is associated with a reduced risk of penile HPV infection and, in the case of men with a history of multiple sexual partners, a reduced risk of cervical cancer in their current female partners. My Interpretation: Uncircumcised men who have had more than 6 sex partners in their lives have an increased chance of carrying the HPV virus, which is a key risk factor for cervical cancer. Doesn't necessarily mean that all uncircumcised guys should rush in for the big snip. Just illustrates why some women may be concerned about it.

QUOTE (danman31 @ Jan 2, 2009 -> 03:35 AM) This thread is awesome. I say if she wants it cut, she's kinda weird. There is some research linking sex with uncircumcised men to increased risk for cervical cancer. Might have something to do with it.

QUOTE (GreatScott82 @ Jan 1, 2009 -> 11:26 PM) Are you guys getting that similar feeling like it was the offseason prior to the 2007 season? Not sure I'm following you on that one. The 2007 starting lineup had no youth in it. Pods Erstad Thome Konerko Dye Crede Iguchi AJ Uribe And the rotation had only one young player... Danks.

I was snipped at birth, so I can't provide feedback on the pain. But I don't think it will have any impact on size if you're worried about that.

I think that will be our team going IN to spring training. Like fathom said... if they suck... no way will KW go into the regular season without making changes... I think that's particularly the case with the young starting pitchers and Owens, but it applies to everybody not just the young guys. This year there are going to be vets looking for jobs all the way up til the start of the regular season. No reason to rush and overpay for crap free agents just because people fear our young guys will suck... before they get a chance to play. Let's see how spring training goes first.

QUOTE (elrockinMT @ Jan 1, 2009 -> 02:07 PM) I was surprised when the Sox let him go the first time Be thankful for the chain of events... Sox trade Gooch to give Danny Richar (who was tearing up AAA) a fall audition at the major league level. Danny stumbled at the plate. The Sox... not sure Richar would be 'the guy' based on that audition... went out and signed Alexei to compete for the job. Funny how life works out sometimes.

Not unless KW is developing a Hendry-like fetish for 2nd baseman.

Bob Costas interviewing Chelios before the game... asks him... "Which is your favorite Chicago sports team... the Bears, the Bulls?" Chelios said... "The WhiteSox are my team."

QUOTE (Markbilliards @ Dec 31, 2008 -> 07:33 PM) Javy has tons of fastball movement. What is he talking about? Another good example of why I take everything Law writes with a grain of salt. Javy may have had 'problems', but lack of movement on his pitches was not one of them. He has absolutely nasty movement on his pitches.

I wish I had book-marked some of the "Just cut Javy... because we'll never get a bag of balls for that loser" posts that seemed pretty common right after the season ended.

QUOTE (WSoxMatt @ Dec 29, 2008 -> 12:58 AM) I didnt care for the show...not enough meat and highlights for me too much fluff Yeah, it was pretty light on content. Definitely not a 'must see'. Alot of time spent showing interviews of players no longer with the team. But given the shortage of Sox news recently, it was reasonably entertaining.

QUOTE (jenks45monster @ Dec 27, 2008 -> 03:20 PM) I think they can potentially win the NL West. Maybe... But winning the NL West only requires them to be the least pathetic team in that division.

Keith Law says the Randy Johnson signing moves the Giants "toward 2009 respectability, if not outright contention." Sounds like Law has been hitting the eggnog pretty hard over the holidays.

I think the state of the current free agent market* makes trading Dye or Konerko unlikely. (*glut of available players at depressed prices)

They just did that so they could sweeten the Bailey for Dye deal.

QUOTE (elrockinMT @ Dec 27, 2008 -> 11:12 AM) What I find in these published rumor reports irritates me to no end. The way the articles read IMO is that the Sox shoulds just be jumping with glee that the Angels see us as the 2nd or third best option and will take Dye and/or Konerko of our hands. We are supposed to feel grateful about this apparently. In my mind Dye and Konerko are two top of the line players and we will be weakening ourselves if we trade them. The goal is to get better not strengthen the Angels or any other team at our expense. ^^^^^^^^^ Exactly. I'm always amazed by arguments that suggest other teams need our guys, but that we'd be better off without them.

Looks like Cook has moved from the Dominican League to the Venezuelan League. He had 2 hits in 13 at-bats in the Dominican League before the move... both homeruns. David Cook player page with winter league stats. Looks like he went hitless in this first three games in Venezuela... then has had at least one hit in each of the seven games he's started since.