StrangeSox

She'll probably come in somewhere between 48-50. And for whatever it's worth, her approval ratings have climbed a little bit over the past month or two. She probably won't get any sort of new President honeymoon period, though. I was going to respond to Ezio/ss2k5's convo earlier and say something about Americans in general having a more cynical view of politics and that drives down turnout, and I think Harry's post expresses that sentiment pretty well. this map is about what I'm thinking right now, with NC being pretty much 50/50

If Florida and PA both get called for Clinton early, you can pretty much call it a night.

QUOTE (bmags @ Nov 7, 2016 -> 09:30 AM) I'm surprised by Australia but for some reason I find it more acceptable for parliamentary voting, so long as punishment is no more than a kick in the bum.

QUOTE (bmags @ Nov 7, 2016 -> 09:19 AM) OTOH Brazil mandates voting and that is a much worse system. I think most of SA and Australia have compulsory voting. An over-emphasis on Presidential races definitely doesn't help "off" year turnout.

QUOTE (Ezio Auditore @ Nov 7, 2016 -> 09:10 AM) f***ing Iran has turnout numbers that blow ours out of the water. Their off-year elections are higher than our record turnout (2008). NPR had another show I was listening to while driving back and forth to the hardware store for the fourth time this weekend on the history of voter participation http://backstoryradio.org/shows/pulling-th...ing-in-america/

QUOTE (Ezio Auditore @ Nov 7, 2016 -> 08:34 AM) If not a national holiday, then it should be on a Saturday. Given that Article II of the Constitution doesn't say it has to be on a Tuesday and we haven't been an agrarian society for over a century now, there's really no reason Congress couldn't move it. If they wanted to. NPR had a segment on this over the weekend. People generally worked most of the week and definitely on Saturdays and would worship on Sunday. You'd be harvesting through October and you'd start prepping for your next crops in a few weeks, so the first Tuesday in November was really the best downtime for everyone. But yeah that was back when we were like 90% agrarian.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Nov 7, 2016 -> 08:30 AM) I keep hearing about these extremely long lines, I've never experienced that. When I normally vote, it takes about 8 minutes. This year I early voted at my kid's preschool, it took 5 minutes. It's always more of an issue in bigger cities, and especially in heavily Democratic areas in Republican-run states.

QUOTE (Ezio Auditore @ Nov 7, 2016 -> 08:28 AM) early voting was on the ballot in Maryland in '08 IIRC and that is the last time I've been to vote on Election Day. Since then I've early voted in '10, '12, and '14. I find the experience to be overrated, the line is hundreds of people long (looks like one of those problematic lines they show you on TV from Florida or Ohio). In 2012 I went there in the first quarter of the Bears-Panthers game and by the time I got back home the game had been over for about an hour. I guess it'd be convenient if I couldn't vote on Election Day but from now on I'm just gonna keep voting before I go to work. Voting by mail weeks ahead of time is maybe a little anticlimatic but it's so ridiculously easy.

QUOTE (Ezio Auditore @ Nov 7, 2016 -> 08:09 AM) Nate Silver is taking heat from people from not including early voting totals in his forecasting model but the thing is, based on the way he does his math, I don't think he knows how. He'd be measuring two different things. Early voting isn't polls, it's people who've already voted, so he'd be trying to combine a measured guess against. He's built his brand off the public polling system from 2008, but it's changed since then. None of the aggregators do this, and it's sorta BS to fault 538 for not doing it either. At this point, you're only guessing how people voted early based on their registered party affiliation and their race or gender based on comparisons to past years. It's some good info, but trying to use it to tweak all of the rest of the polls is probably not a good idea. Nate's model has other problems that causes way too much uncertainty, but that isn't one of them.

Trump's campaign staff have to treat him like a child. https://t.co/xoAs2KmJ83

Accurate ec totals imo

Y'all shook, but none is more shook than nate this year. Some buzz that Latino early voting turnout in Florida is already higher than total turnout in 2012. Vote is trending less and less white by the day there. Even bigger gains in Nevada as well today.

So outrageous that Clinton called Trump supporters deplorable https://twitter.com/CandaceSmith_/status/71...src=twsrc%5Etfw https://twitter.com/Philip_Elliott/status/7...src=twsrc%5Etfw

Honestly, that seems a bit far-fetched to me. More likely, and based on multiple reports from multiple sources, there's a bit of a war going on between FBI NY office, FBI DC office and the DOJ with the FBI NY office having at least a few hardcore anti-Clinton types. These guys are far enough in the tank that they wanted to launch full-scale investigations of the Clinton Foundation based on that "Clinton Cash" book, which the higher ups in the FBI and DOJ laughed off. So the story allegedly goes that these FBI NY guys are the ones who came across the Huma emails on her husband's laptop as part of a separate investigation. They were almost definitely going to leak this stuff, and maybe that's Mayor 9/11's source, so Comey tries to get out ahead of it with his crappy letter.

What the early voting in several key swing states seems to be indicating so far is that, unless these early voters are nearly 100% cannibalized from election day voters, we're going to actually see fairly decent turnout rates overall this year. A far cry from the record-low participation Clinton-Bush race many of us might have assumed two years ago.

and from Nevada That much of a lead in Clark going into Tuesday should make for a fairly comfortable win in Nevada. Obama had a similar margin and won that state by several points in 2012.

IIRC a lot of this new UA vote is Latino.

Hate Congress, love your own Congressman/Senator. The problem is the other guy.

How Macedonia Became A Global Hub For Pro-Trump Misinformation BuzzFeed News identified more than 100 pro-Trump websites being run from a single town in the former Yugoslav Republic.

Looks like the leaks we're getting out of the fbi really are part of am internal political war. https://t.co/15cTkoawQk

There's a chance we don't know who controls the Senate until January. https://t.co/qBquzX0mex

I wouldn't this year. His model is over reactive to everything and seems designed to swing hard to relatively minor inputs and has tons of uncertainty baked in. Plus some of the poll adjustments they're doing don't seem to make any sense. Right now it's really just him hedging ridiculously because he screwed up so bad on the primaries. 538's model correlates everything too much. For example, if a new poll of Oklahoma came out tomorrow and Trump gained a couple of points there, nates model would drop Clinton's odds overall even though there's already a 0% chance she wins that state. But a movement for Trump in one poll nudges everything slightly in his favor. It allows for his model to pick up small shifts in a short period, but it also means it's very sensitive to every tiny little input.