harfman77

QUOTE (Señor Ding-Dong @ Jun 5, 2014 -> 10:01 PM) Where does Adams project to be in our top prospects? Depends how he performs in rookie league, but would probably be around 5.

Wtf cubs?

QUOTE (Soxfest @ Jun 5, 2014 -> 05:44 PM) Yes because of the slotted system, Sox do not need to get too cute on this 3rd pick just get the best talent at the 3rd spot and pay the man. Sure. The problem is there is no clear cut guy, there are 4-5 guys that you could serious consider drafting at the third spot. So if you have 5 guys with the same grades, which do you pick? Probably the guy that cuts you the best deal.

Then theres this: JJ Cooper @jjcoop36 Other H.S draftees who touched 100: Lucas Giolito, Archie Bradley, Dylan Bundy, Lance McCullers. Two have already undergone TJ, but all four are also the top pitching prospects for their teams.

QUOTE (Soxfest @ Jun 5, 2014 -> 05:35 PM) This has worked out so well for the Sox .............pay the best draft pick for once. This is why Sox system is so low on talent. The Sox have done a great job of drafting the last two seasons, the system is starting to build but the system needs quality AND quantity to help build up the system so that they have reliable players to graduate to the ML roster.

QUOTE (fathom @ Jun 5, 2014 -> 05:31 PM) If they truly believe Rodon is a future ace, then I'm fine with them risking most of their draft on him. I read a review of the Cubs draft a few years ago with Baez, and they missed on almost all of their picks after him. If he ends up a perennial all-star, then I would say they had a good draft. I think they would if they believed that, but I don't think either of the guys that they feel that way about will be there at #3.

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Jun 5, 2014 -> 04:31 PM) LOL at the money aspect again. Hawk was going on about that again last night too. No matter who you pick at #3 and give $5M+ to, you're still paying Jeff Keppinger more money than that to sit at home and slap his pickle around. Perspective. Don't be a-scared. Buy a dog if you're a-scared. Any time a business invests money it has to do a cost/benefit analysis. This is the second analyst in the last two days that has said Kolek is worth about a $3M-$4M investment, thats not being "a-scared" its managing risk and utilizing your resources in a smart way. It seems that the Sox have come to the conclusion there is a better way to spend their money. Or this could all be smokescreen to try and muck things up for the Cubs and drive down the asking price of the guy they want.

Litigator (Chicago): Keith Law said today that the White Sox have moved off of Kolek, and will take Nola instead. He has Kolek dropping to #8. Why? Kolek seemed like a great choice at #3 to me. Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: Kolek's body and velocity kept him on short lists as someone the teams up top absolutely needed to keep tabs on, but once that short list gets paired down it's easy to see why Kolek might get dropped in favor of a less risky proposition. Kolek is 11th on my board, and that's a result of him being highly underdeveloped, showing secondaries that at present fair often play below average, below average command, almost no track record (didn't play on the scouting circuit and had minimal exposure to the rest of the high-profile HS talent in the class), and highly overmatched spring competition (which could essentially be dominated by erratic fastballs). He's a great prospect, and really interesting from a developmental standpoint. But it's more of a $3 MM investment profile for me than $4.5 or 5.5 M http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=1165

Also from BP Chat: Anthony (Nj): With more younger players coming into the league and making a bigger impact during the past 3 years. Are teams looking at newly drafted players to make an impact sooner than they have in the past? Has draft strategy changed because of it? Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: I think there is added focus on young, cost-controlled major league talent right now, and as a result teams are doing a better job (or at least trying to do a better job) of giving the bump in value to draft profiles that come with more certainty, even if it's at the cost of upside. I think you can see some orgs skewing in that direction, certainly, if only by way of a more balanced approach.

From BP Chat: Shawnykid23 (CT): How would you compare the top 3 arms in this year's draft to last year's? Basically, ignoring MILB performance, only coming into the draft how would you rank Appel, Gray, Stewart, Aiken, Rodon, and Kolek? Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: I'd strike Kolek and add Nola as third best arm in this class. Then give me Gray, Aiken, Rodon, Appel, Nola, Stewart. I could be talked into arranging the last three in basically any order. Also I could be talked into Aiken over Gray without much effort. How's that for hedging my bets?

QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Jun 5, 2014 -> 03:19 PM) Yea I'm not seeing that. Aiken and Rodon and Kolek are widely considered potential aces. Rodon's stats in college compare well with Strasburgs. Yes there is potential, but none are close to reaching that and have a lot of development and none are seen as such a sure thing as Strasburg was. There are things to like about each, Aiken seems to be the best bet when considering his prior workload, assortment of pitches, control, easy velocity and feel for pitching.

QUOTE (bmags @ Jun 5, 2014 -> 03:19 PM) Yes, those surefire previous mlb drafts that happened in the past. There were some guys like Strasburg and Harper that were seen as a surefire things and have for the most part lived up to the hype. Rodon was thought to be that before this season, but the combination of his lack of control and his overuse has devalued him to the point where some scouts have said he may eventually be in the bullpen.

QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Jun 5, 2014 -> 03:19 PM) Sure, if you hate money, that's a great way to get yourself onto team 6. Sometimes there are things other than money at play. Teams can promise a spot on the 40 man roster or for college players a call up to the majors at the end of the season starting the players arb clock so they can reach free agency more quickly.

QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Jun 5, 2014 -> 03:10 PM) Screw the "safe" pick we need another ace to pair with Sale, if the Sox can get an ace there they have to try imo. You get two aces, suddenly playoff series' become a lot more winnable. There is no ace to pair with Sale in the draft. Its not like the other drafts where you have a pretty good idea of what you are getting, none of the top 5 pitchers in this draft are even guarantees to remain as starters.

QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Jun 5, 2014 -> 03:07 PM) It seems to me that with the new slot system, leaking word that you are looking for a big payday is a surefire way to slide right down the draft board. It's not like you can demand #1 money at the #5 pick anymore. The best way to get drafted as high as possible is to make yourself seem as signable as possible. Or, its the best way to dictate the team that takes you. "Teams 1-5, my demands are $7M" and then secretly to team 6 "I'll sign for slot".

QUOTE (southside hitman @ Jun 5, 2014 -> 02:56 PM) No. There is talk of Conforto or the Indiana kid being the first hitter drafted above Jackson. The only reason they are being talked about above Jackson though is because the Cubs want someone they can make a deal with and that has a relatively low floor. Jackson is the consensus top bat in the class, but odds are he is not offering any discounts.

QUOTE (Andy the Clown @ Jun 5, 2014 -> 02:08 PM) In the first round, you're supposed to draft guys that could be stars. Nola will never be a star. Why waste the pick? You can get low ceiling college arms later in the draft. Who says? You are supposed to draft guys that are going to help your team, Nola could help the team by the end of the season taking the Sale path to the majors. You can get low ceiling guys anytime, but you can't get guys with the floor that Nola has outside of the top 10 picks. If you had to rate players floors and ceilings on a 100 point scale: Aiken - 60/99 Rodon - 75/95 Nola - 80/90 Kolek - 50/95

QUOTE (greg775 @ Jun 5, 2014 -> 02:00 PM) Rebuilding like the Cubs are doing is very boring and painful. Only those totally in love with prospects, I'd call them draftniks, but people got mad at me for using that term, aren't totally bored by it. Hopefullly the Sox won't get to the point they have no good players on the field for 3-5 years like the Cubs. I hate rebuilding and being out of it on June 1. Very sad, though, that WGN is dropping all sports. What kind of station is it going to be? Those bad Matlock shows all day? Wow. They are making a change to carrying their own programming, making the transition that TBS went through from a superstation to a true cable network.

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Jun 5, 2014 -> 02:05 PM) To me it sounds like we're probably: Aiken Rodon Kolek or Nola, weighing this one. If that's the case then we're getting a lefty should anyone else sneak in 1 or 2. That hinges on the Astros then because if they go Rodon we could still get Aiken, but if they go Aiken we'll have to hope the Marlins pass on the obvious fit in Rodon, and that just seems unlikely. I don't want Nola so I hope the Astros take anyone but Aiken at #1. The Astros may be tempted to grab Rodon since Appel seems to be bombing and they might want some pitching to go with their position player prospects that are graduating to the majors.

QUOTE (Baron @ Jun 5, 2014 -> 01:57 PM) I cant wait to watch the Cubs fan's reactions when they go underslot Kyle Schwarber from Indiana is the rumor of the day.

John Curtiss is an interesting guy to look at in rounds 3-5. He was a prospect out of HS, pitched well as starter as a frosh, had TJ as a soph, came back as a closer this season throwing in the mid-upper 90's and has the stuff to start again. He is a draft eligible soph after red-shirting last season. https://texas.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1627764

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Jun 5, 2014 -> 01:27 PM) I thought the same until someone posted about the 90% rule where you are forced to offer at least 90% slot or you lose the pick. I didn't know that, I was thinking of how awesome it could be if you picked up Hoffman for $2M or so and put another $3.5M into overslot guys, but since you can't do that, I don't think going underslot for someone who is not BPA would really help all that much. Saving $500K or so and redistributing it isn't going to convince any kid with a strong commitment to sign. Just not worth it. Really, you still can if you work it out ahead of the draft. The Sox could call up Hoffman and say "We see that chances are you end up with the BJ's at #11. If you agree to #9 slot money we will draft you at #3 and you will make so extra $$." If he says no you move on, if he says yes you save $2.8M that you can spread out through the rest of the draft, plus you get the guy you really wanted anyway. Obviously you need to have a deal in place before the draft, but it is feasible. If the Sox could get get Hoffman, Weaver, and then someone like Keller or Mac Marshall that would fill up a lot of holes in the orgs vacuum of top level pitching prospects. Not the "safe" thing to do, but since the draft is a gamble anyway, I wouldn't be against this approach.

QUOTE (DirtySox @ Jun 5, 2014 -> 01:15 PM) Pssh. You are slow on posting those 2K5. Justin (Chicago) If a team can teach Luke Weaver a breaking ball how does that change his projected ceiling? Klaw (2:09 PM) That's not a minor "if," but I've half-joked that the White Sox should take him in the second round, and in three months he'll be throwing a plus slider. Yes, please. Though if Nola is the pick, you probably want a HS school with more upside in round 2.

QUOTE (bmags @ Jun 5, 2014 -> 01:06 PM) I still think people underestimate the fact that Sox could conceivably rate Nola as high because they think he will be a great pitcher not necessarily just because he is "safe". Is Wacha considered an ace? Nola sounds like the closest thing to a Wacha type in this draft. Nola may not have the ace ceiling, but he probably has the lowest chance at busting. I prefer Aiken, Rodon, and Jackson to him, and really Hoffman too on a steep discount, but Kolek seems too much in the Broxton/Bobby Jenks mold that I am not sure he would be a better pick. The baseball draft is really a crapshoot. I am for drafting which ever guy allows you to be more aggressive in pursuing lottery tickets later in the draft instead of rolling the dice on one high upside guy and then having to pinch pennies on org players in the rest of the top 10.

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Jun 5, 2014 -> 11:17 AM) Agree. But Felix had a much bigger FB earlier in his career along with multiple terrific secondary offerings and has become more of a pitcher than anything else. All that experience counts too. Neither Kolek nor Nola have anything on King Felix, but Kolek has a shot at being at least close, while Nola has none whatsoever. I'm not saying Nola can't be effective. I'm syaing this is the #3 pick we're talking about here. And let's not sit here and pretend as though Nola is a sure thing. Look at Appel, my how long it has been since he was drafted. This kid might a complete and total bust 1 and a half years from now while at the same time Kolek on another team is a consensus top-3-5 prospect in all of baseball. Nola has every bit as much a chance at busting then anyone else. Hell, look at Erik Johnson. Anyone see that coming? I didn't, I thought he'd be our guy between Q and Danks. Nope. #3 Overall picks since 2000 2000 - Luis Montanez - SS - HS - Cubs - ML utility player 2001 - Dewon Brazelton - RHP - MTSU - TB - Marginal reliever 2002 - Christopher Gruler - RHP - HS - Reds - Never made it past A- 2003 - Kyle Sleeth - RHP - Wake Forest - Tigers - Never made it past AA 2004 - Phillip Humber - RHP - Rice - Mets - ML 5th starter 2005 - Jeff Clement - C - USC - Mariners - AAAA player 2006 - Evan Longoria - 3B - CSLB - TB - Perennial All-Star 2007 - Josh Vitters - 3B - HS - Cubs - Turbulent career, hitting .208 in AAA this season 2008 - Eric Hosmer - 1B - HS - Royals - Up and down, looks to be at least a ML regular going forward 2009 - Donovan Tate - CF - HS - Padres - Out of baseball 2010 - Manny Machado - SS - HS - Orioles - At least ML regular, probably perennial All-Star 2011 - Trevor Bauer - RHP - UCLA - Dbacks - In his third stint on a ML roster, though it likes he might stick this time 2012 - Mike Zunino - C - Florida - Mariners - ML regular 2013 - Jon Gray - RHP - Oklahoma - Rockies - On his way to a September call-up, career is still a ? Not a great track record. If you can make a deal and get someone that you know can help and get another guy with the second round that has big upside, you have to at least consider it. Nola is what most people hope Danish's ceiling is. I prefer Jackson to any of them at this point as the system has a real need for someone with bat to ball skills, especially if he can play C or 3B.