harfman77

QUOTE (Soxfest @ Jun 10, 2014 -> 02:09 PM) I am hoping 6.3M will get deal done with August bullpen call up. I think that is very fair for Bor-ASS and Rodon. I have a feeling Bor-ASS will want to wait until Kolek deal at #2 is done. No way. He either gets above slot money or he gets the fast track. Absolutely no reason to give him both. Considering the way he was used this season, I imagine that his workload will be relatively light the rest of the year. They may pitch him a couple innings out of the bullpen every fifth day to keep him on schedule and limit his innings. There is no reason to start his arb clock and go over slot in the same deal as that will cost the Sox a lot more money down the road if Rodon meets his potential. I think the goal should be to have him ready for opening day 2016 so that the Sox can control his rights through their window of contention in 2016-2019. Its either $5.5M and a callup or $6M+ and you keep him in the minors until he is ready. Getting him to go underslot at $5.5 likely allows you to sign BODM which is probably worth letting Rodon getting to arbitration a year earlier.

QUOTE (southside hitman @ Jun 10, 2014 -> 01:29 PM) Does Davidson have a chance to be a young Alex Rodriguez? No. But he just turned 23 and has consistently hit for power over his minor league career. His power numbers are on line or above his career averages and his BABIP is 60 points below his career average. I think you could plug him into the lineup next year and take the 20-25 homers and live with the .240 batting average. And who knows, some players make huge strides after a couple of major league seasons, Chris Davis and Josh Donaldson for example. Davidson has the power and there has been no questions about his overall hit tool, I think he'll provide value for the Sox soon. I am right there with you, thats what makes him resemble a young Mark Reynolds. He could bust out like Donaldson and Davis, but the probability on that is not great. The odds are he improves to the point where he is a guy that can hit .245 with 20 HR's a year. He still has a shot to be great, but it is less likely today than it ever before in his career.

QUOTE (southside hitman @ Jun 10, 2014 -> 11:26 AM) You also have to factor the likelihood of said prospect reaching that ceiling, or at least their floor. Davidson has an very good chance of being at least a league average 3B, Adams has an extremely small chance of being a #1 or #2 starter. Hell, he probably has a slim chance of even being a starter at the major league level period. Sure Adams may have a higher ceiling than Davidson, but you could say the same for any freak athlete kid who dabbles in baseball. Just because it's possible, doesn't mean its remotely probable. And I say all this with the caveat that I absolutely loved the Adams pick. Probably my favorite in the whole draft. I totally get that. You need to evaluate the players max potential, their current ability, and the likelihood that they meet that ceiling. Adams has a extremely high ceiling and there is no way to measure the floor or probability until he actual pitches as a pro. Davidson's ceiling might not even be everyday MLB player, I don't know how you can look at Davidson and say he has a chance to be much more than he is, there is very little projection left in him. Perhaps he is having eye issues like Olt was and needs to get that taken care of, but his 32% K rate (small sample) in the majors last season and his 33% K rate this season make it less likely he will ever be a league average 3B. Its quite possible that pitchers have learned how to pitch to him and he will have a hard time ever being more than he is now without some mechanical changes.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jun 10, 2014 -> 10:54 AM) He had 500 PA of 26% K rate in AAA just late year, and showed a 27% in limited action in the ML. Two months or 33% in AAA this year is discouraging, but how could it have lowered his ceiling? He's had larger samples of better performance at this very level less than a calendar year ago. If this was his first taste above AA, you could make sort of an argument that his skills might not translate, and then you'd re-evaluate his ceiling. But what do we have to suggest that he can't be what he was in 2013? Nothing, but the 2013 version of Matt Davidson is not an all star level player. What we have is evidence that he might not reach the ceiling that was predicted for him in 2013 which tarnishes his prospect status. There is nothing to suggest that if you extrapolated the numbers he put up in the majors last year over a season that he could not replicate those numbers, but those are not the numbers of a starting major leaguer. I dont know that Adams should be rated ahead of Davidson, but I can see the argument for it. Realistically Davidson is still probably a top 5 or 6 player in the org but his chances of reaching his upside are lower than they were when he was acquired.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jun 10, 2014 -> 10:39 AM) I cannot fathom how Adams the high schooler who fell to the second round can be higher than Matt Davidson, the preseason top 100 prospect in AAA having his first bad season. I would say at this point Adams ceiling is a lot higher than Davidsons. Adams has a TOR ceiling while Davidson is resembling many of the scouting reports that we read when he was acquired, a ton of power though maybe not enough contact to make it play at the ML level, so his ceiling has fallen a bit to where he just may be a Mark Reynolds clone.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jun 10, 2014 -> 09:45 AM) But they didn't. You really don't think it's human nature to try harder to impress new teammates, especially when you're going from one of the three worst teams in the majors (with perhaps the most negative attitude/mindset of any Sox team in recent memory, and the most mental mistakes) to one of the best franchises in recent MLB history? Fair enough. What do Rock Raines and bucket think about this specific question? There's no way I'm going to be convinced we would have won more games with Rios still around. We can look at their record before he left the team (.377) and afterwards (.417) and that's just as compelling as virtually identical OPS numbers. The fact they didn't had a lot more to do with the complete 180 in production at the 1B position for the last half of the season than anything that Rios did. Rios is a better player than Garcia at this time, Garcia has a chance to develop into a better player but isn't there yet. Personally, I think that their offensive games are fairly similar while Rios was a plus defender in RF Garcia appears that he will struggle to be average. Its a fools errand to try and determine how the Sox would have finished if they had kept Rios, there are too many factors to possibly be taken into account. Leury can be a piece of a championship team in the way that Pablo Ozuna was last time.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jun 10, 2014 -> 09:40 AM) But I'm using what I do know, which says that Alex Rios was a better baseball player down the stretch. If you want, you can speculate that because Alex Rios was dining with both the wives of Dunn and Ramirez while also getting cotton candy for Viciedo's family but not De Aza's while consistently getting the right chewing tobacco for Mark Parent but always getting the wrong bubble gum for Robin Ventura, he was causing problems in the clubhouse, but there is absolutely no way to quantify those numbers so why are you even trying? It never seemed like Rios caused problems with his attitude in Chicago other than the occasional lack of hustle, and the team damn near won the division twice when he was with the White Sox. Alex Rios is a good player on good teams. He is a guy that seems to play to the level of his team performing poorly when he is on a bad team raising his level of play when things are going well for his team. He is the baseball equivalent of a chameleon. He does not have the make-up to carry a team and be a star but he can be very good in a complimentary role.

Or take Micah Johnson as an example, he committed 29 errors last season and is on pace for 18 this season. Anderson may end up in the OF eventually and he will never be Rondon with the glove because very few are, but he has a good of chance to stick at short as anyone. As is repeated ad nauseam on the board, he is pretty raw in a baseball sense.

QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Jun 9, 2014 -> 02:59 PM) It's not in MLB's best interests to allow kids to re-enter the draft every year. They get their first shot out of HS. If they choose not to sign, they don't get their second shot for 3 more years, which would be after the third year of college for most kids. Then if you still don't sign you can be drafted again the following year. Unless you are juco player, then you are eligible after two years a la Tim Anderson.

QUOTE (bmags @ Jun 9, 2014 -> 02:40 PM) Rodon is gonna sign at slot or above. No way he is signing for 750k under slot. Maybe. I think the Sox can get creative and place him on the 40 man roster and maybe sell him on the Chris Sale plan as that will get him to free agency quicker and mean more $$ in the long run. I doubt that he signs for less than slot, but it is really the only way to get enough money to sign Montes de Oca.

QUOTE (Butter Parque @ Jun 9, 2014 -> 02:25 PM) Certainly creates the possibility to sign the Mizzou kid. Comes down to Rodon now. No one else will likely get their full slot other than him. If you get him so sign for $5M, then you have a really decent shot at signing Montes de Oca. 1 (3): Carlos Rodon, LHP, /$5,721,500 2 (44): Spencer Adams, $1,282,700/$1,282,700 3 (77): Jace Fry, /$726,000 4 (108): Brett Austin, /$485,400 5 (138): Zach Thompson, /$363,400 6 (168): Louie Lechich, /$272,100* 7 (198): Jake Peter, /$203,800 8 (228): John Ziznewski, /$162,100* 9 (258): Brian Clark, /$151,400 10 (288): Jake Jarvis, /$141,300 14 (408): Bryce Montes de Oca, /$100,000

Could the Rodon pick be the tool that is used to fix the rift between Boras and the Sox organization? It so it would have big implications down the road in free agency and re-signing Viciedo as he becomes arb eligible after this season.

July 18th is the signing deadline for non-college seniors so we will know what happens by then. Boras probably won't start negotiating with the Sox until that morning so odds are long that they will have enough time/money left over to sign Bryce.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Jun 6, 2014 -> 10:48 AM) Eaton's offense is marginal for a corner OF. But he would help the D a lot. Not really anymore, with the power drain in the post steroid era, he can be at least league average offensively in LF and elite defensively. If you can get a plus defender in CF it makes a lot of sense to move him over, but that is a tough order to fill. QUOTE (TaylorStSox @ Jun 6, 2014 -> 02:24 PM) Avi has the tools to be a plus outfielder but his instincts are atrocious. He'll never be more than average at best. I would take average. If he could learn to catch the ball without putting himself at risk and get better jumps on the ball to get to league average, his arm is strong enough that he will be a solid defender in RF. He looked so, so bad in the OF at the beginning of the season.

QUOTE (DirtySox @ Jun 6, 2014 -> 10:08 AM) Any of the ESPN Insider articles have anything regarding the Sox first day? What about the Cubs? No idea what they are doing unless they grab Bakauskus/Nix today. This was the analysis of the Sox pick: The presumed No. 1 selection since April of his sophomore year, Rodon's inconsistent season and concerns about his high workload saw him fall from that status -- but not very far. He's still got one of the best sliders I've seen from a southpaw, and he'll touch 97 with his fastball. If the fastball command improves, he could be a member of the White Sox rotation late in 2015, and summer 2016 is very likely. There's as much boom and bust in this lefty as in any we've seen in a long, long time. On the Cubs, they are echoing the WTF? sentiment.

QUOTE (NCsoxfan @ Jun 6, 2014 -> 10:06 AM) Thoughts on Michael Cederoth for the upcoming pick? Not crazy about taking a reliever, mostly because it seems that what the system is full of at this point. Would prefer someone with a better shot at starting or a position player with a solid hit tool.

Carbonell has to sign in the next 10 days to avoid being subject to the international prospect pools. The Mariners and Yankees were said to be the two finalists, but: "Mariners officials dismissed previous reports that have connected the team to Cuban outfielder Daniel Carbonell. It’s been reported previously that Seattle is one of two finalists for Carbonell’s services. Dutton does note that the Seattle front office’s denial could merely be gamesmanship." http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/06/al-w...-carbonell.html

QUOTE (LDF @ Jun 5, 2014 -> 03:12 PM) This is going to be a busy weekend for the sox brass. First is the draft, then go and see this new Cuban kid and / or get info on him to judge him. here is a question, did he just escape or did he already and teams are trying to see him before July 2? He just left Cuba so he will be subject to the international prospect pool which likely takes the Sox, Cubs, and Rangers at least out of the running for him. He will end up with someone like the Yankees, Brewers, or Rays that already planned to bust through the international spending caps anyway.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jun 6, 2014 -> 09:06 AM) As a self-professed non-guru... 1. Rodon 2. Anderson 3. Hawkins 4. Davidson 5. Beck 6. Danish 7. Micah Johnson 8. Adolfo 9. Michalczewski 10. Adams I would swap Sanchez with Adolfo, at least until he has a professional at bat, other than that I agree. Thats a pretty solid top 10 probably the best top 10 the Sox have had in 20 years.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Jun 6, 2014 -> 09:06 AM) Why? So he can stay healthy and in the lineup. Putting him in LF also significantly raises the overall defense in the OF if you have someone as good or better in CF. If Avi Garcia can learn to play defense the outfield could be elite defensively.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jun 6, 2014 -> 08:41 AM) Already given up on Eaton, eh? I think most feel Eaton is a better LF candidate long term.

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Jun 6, 2014 -> 08:53 AM) Agree but in general I don't like drafting these guys and trying to devleop them. It's such difficult position to learn, and I'd much rather just let another team develop these players for me & then trade for them or sign them. Maybe later in the draft we take one. Hahn should keep focusing on pitching. Sox pitching prospects actually turn out once in a while. Catchers, by trade, have longer development curves than other positions because of the steep transition between college and pro ball. Ayala entered rookie league as a 17 year old and is still only 19, plenty of time for him to catch up. Hopefully he can put it together this year and earn an advancement to A- ball. The problem with trading for them is that they often cost more in a trade than other players relative to their production because there are so few legit catching prospects.

I like Jeren Kendall for this pick: A Wisconsin high school position player hasn't been selected in the top 100 picks since the Twins took Scott Servais in the second round of the 1985 Draft. After starring at the Area Code Games in August, Kendall could end that drought. Kendall's best tool is his plus-plus speed. It serves him well on the bases and in center field, where he has a better arm than most at the position. The Vanderbilt recruit has a short left-handed stroke that allows him to make contact, though scouts would like to see him use his lower half more in his swing. He won't hit for a lot of power but does have more than might be expected from someone with his small frame. He'd be better served, however, by hitting more balls on the ground to take advantage of his wheels. Or John Curtiss: 6'4" 205lbs DOB: 04/05/93 | Scouting video Curtiss could have been a third-round pick out of a Texas high school in 2011 had he been willing to turn pro, but he was set on becoming a Longhorn. The most highly regarded arm in a deep Texas recruiting class, he had Tommy John surgery after his freshman season and missed all of 2013, when he also had a rib removed to alleviate thoracic outlet syndrome. He has come back strong as a closer as a redshirt sophomore this spring and should return to starting again in 2015. Curtiss has regained the velocity on his fastball, which sits at 92-94 mph and peaks at 96, and he uses his 6-foot-5 frame to throw his heater on a steep downhill plane. He still can run his slider up into the 80s, though it can get slurvy and he battles his command with it. Pitchers who have their elbows reconstructed often need time to get back their consistency and command of their secondary pitches, so his slider should get better. Because he's working in relief, Curtiss hasn't found much need for a changeup, which will require plenty of work when he joins the rotation. A potential No. 2 or 3 starter if everything comes together, he's also highly intelligent and graduated from Texas in three years with a double major in English and history. Sounds like a buy low candidate.

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Jun 5, 2014 -> 10:11 PM) So what are the rules after Round 10? Is it back to the Wild West like under the old CBA, draft whoever you want wherever, throw all kinds of money at them? The slots go away but are there max amounts you can offer? Anything over $100k counts against your pool.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jun 5, 2014 -> 10:02 PM) Idk how they're going to sign both of these guys if they are both overslot. They have a 15% buffer to go over their pool before they have any penalties though, right?