JUSTgottaBELIEVE

Here’s my problem with what they are doing. They have a poor track record of drafting and developing players, they haven’t invested in IFA in a meaningful way since Robert, they aren’t willing or able to pay for premium free agent talent, and they have yet to show they are capable of pushing payroll to $140M+. How in the hell are they planning to achieve sustained success operating under all of those conditions? It’s the same old half ass attempt at competing, just so happened to be prefaced by a full rebuild. I’m sorry but if the ultimate goal is to win a World Series, which they say it is, they are back to hoping and praying it all magically comes together again one year. This is no plan.

You know what else is a dumb idea? Thinking you can contend in 2020 with this pitching staff (yes I know they are still going to add another couple scrap pieces but that doesn’t change the premise).

How do you think the Sox built “some” depth in the form of Moncada and Kopech? By trading Sale at peak value. Apply that concept now to Moncada and turn him into another two/three critical building blocks that align better with the pieces under control for the next 5+ years. Again, I’d have an awfully difficult time turning down a package of Lux, May and Gray. People called me crazy when I was advocating for trading Rodon when he was on a decent roll back in summer 2017. Hopefully we don’t get burned again.

And I should add that this isn’t just an issue of paying free agents, it’s also an issue of drafting and player development. You can’t be constrained on both ends and expect to achieve “sustained success.”

Trading Moncada and Giolito does not mean the rebuild is dead. Perhaps the better term is “retool.” Call it what you will but if the team is unwilling to pay for premium free agents to address an area of glaring need (pitching!!!), then they need to build more depth through trades of their greatest assets.

I’ve given this organization the benefit of the doubt for a long time. I’d like to think I am one of the more optimistic posters on this site. But it’s ridiculous. This team has a gaping hole in the pitching department and has done absolutely nothing to address it this offseason. Why are they not signing ANY of the top free agent options? We went from debating about whether guys like Cole, Strasburg or Wheeler are “worth the money” to justifying settling for scrap heaps like Alex Wood and Wade Miley again. What gives? How did we get here?

Why would I want to bet in favor of something I hope does not come to fruition?

Exactly what I will be saying about the franchise after they make a ridiculous trade for David Price. Hope they prove me wrong.

Have you seen the Sox starting pitching depth chart??

There’s a very real possibility they miss the playoffs in 2020 and 2021. Then you’re in the position the Indians are in currently. Ride it out with your guys and possibly let Moncada and Gio walk for nothing except a comp pick after 2023 or trade them to get some value in return. Either way, you’ve burned another 1-2 years of the next wave of prospects and TA, Eloy, etc in the process.

Define “destroy”. Haven’t they already done that to a large degree?

Yes, because it’s the one thing they’ve shown they can do really well.

The fact that Moncada is controllable for four more seasons is a big part of what makes him so valuable in a trade. Yet, if they Dodgers offered me Lux, May, and Gray for Moncada, I’d be awfully hard pressed to decline that type of package.

It’s what the Cubs did. I like it better than losing a player like Moncada or Giolito to free agency just as the rebuild is coming to form.

That right there is what prompted this entire premise. When are they going to put all their chips in? Because they sure as hell haven’t done it yet. If they are going to operate under similar constraints as small market teams like the Indians and A’s, then they need to start thinking outside the box like those teams.

If not now, then sometime within the next 12 months assuming 2020 is another lost season. I agree that Moncada and Giolito’s value COULD be higher next winter but it also COULD just as easily be lower (injury, regression, one less year of control/first arb season).

There’s one thing we know Hahn excels in - trading young MLB stars for high end prospects. Why not utilize his biggest strength in this instance and then turn it over to Dombrowski lol

See that’s the thing. They could easily win the division again this year if they kept everyone byt yet they are looking to retool by trading their best player and a top 10 player in MLB.

And yet organizations like the Indians and Rays make these types of trades all the time and barely miss a beat...

I’m not suggesting they tear it all down like they did three years ago. I’m looking at trading two players that are about to get expensive in the relatively near future and hit free agency in four years for high end, MLB ready prospects that align with Lubo, Madrigal, Vaughn etc.

The Sox plan this offseason has been insufferable to this point. I’m generally optimistic when it comes to the team but this is brutal. If they trade for Price that will just put it over the top. IMO, the pivot I suggested is a far wiser course than trading for another 34 year old overpaid has-been and thinking that puts you over the top. Plus, we know Hahn is effective in those types of trades based on history (those trades being the ones where he trades a young big leaguer for elite prospects, not the other way around).

Correct. Either we’re going for it or we’re not. If we’re in the middle, we are simply wasting years of control on Moncada and Giolito as they reach arb next winter and their trade value starts to diminish.

I sure hope we aren’t sitting in the Indians’ position two years from now after another two years of not contending and looking to trade those two guys as they get “expensive” in their later arb years.

It’s highly unlikely the WS are a legitimate contender in 2020 based on how this offseason has transpired. It’s also become apparent that the timelines of the first wave of prospects, specifically Moncada and Giolito, do not align particularly well with the next wave of prospects and long term pieces like Eloy and Timmy, especially if 2020 is another lost season. I’m sure the fans would crucify them for this so they won’t do it BUT I’d strongly consider trading Moncada and Giolito right now while they are at peak value. If someone like Lindor can potentially fetch May and Lux from the Dodgers, what would a guy like Moncada return in his final season of pre-arb? The demand for 3b around the league is huge right now (partly why the Rockies said they would listen on Arenado). Same with Giolito (goes without saying that demand for high end starting pitcher is through the roof). Why not target high end, MLB ready prospects for those two so that they better align with the forthcoming promotions of Lubo, Madrigal, and Vaughn? Prospects I would target in trades: May, Lux, Gray (Dodgers) Adell, Marsh (Angels) Gore, Patino, Baez (Padres) Pache, Wright, Waters (Braves)

Considering Rendon is the better player of the two and doesn’t carry the same character red flags that Machado does, he SHOULD get 10/350 if he were three years younger. It doesn’t change the fact that 10/300 was fair market value for Machado and not some kind of under market great value deal as others were stating. And despite being two years older, I’m willing to bet that Rendon is the more productive player of the two over the next 7 years.