JUSTgottaBELIEVE

Let me tell you why I grew up a Packers fan from my father. Dad was born and raised by Midway, die hard Sox fan. Cheered for the Chicago football Cardinals, who played at old Comiskey. When the Cardinals moved out of Chicago he wouldn’t dare cheer for the team that played at the Sox crosstown rival stadium in Wrigley (Bears) so he decided to cheer for the Bears’ biggest rival (Packers). Now that’s a die hard Sox fan, Sox > Chicago.

I saw that in real time. I’m like why the hell is the Fox yellow marker almost a half yard off? He was definitely short of the Fox yellow line but the actual first down mark he was very close. If he was short it was by inches and certainly not enough evidence to overturn imo. Would have made for an interesting call if it was 4th and inches. Go for the first down to end it or attempt the 53 yard field goal to go up by 8 or punt to pin the Seahawks down within the 10. I’d probably have gone for the first down To end it there.

Who’s the backup SS when Madrigal is promoted? Leury Garcia? I’m assuming Mendick to start the year but will both Mendick and Madrigal be on the big league roster? Worth noting that TA has missed an average of 21 games per season over the last 3 years.

Actually, today’s signing is the most impactful from an fWAR standpoint. Steamer projects 1.5 for EE, while CWS received -3.5 fWAR from their DHs in 2019. Massive swing in production from that position.

Grandal + Abreu + Keuchel + Gonzalez + Encarnacion = $195M (excluding options/incentives for simplicity) Added ~$67M to 2020 payroll -> projected 11.6 fWAR in 2020 per steamer ($5.78M/fWAR) Machado $30M in 2020 -> projected 4.6 fWAR in 2020 per steamer ($6.52M/fWAR)

Only if they already had above replacement level players at those 4 positions, which they didn’t.

3 if you aren’t including Abreu and they’re not done yet

For those keeping tabs at home: Grandal + Abreu + Keuchel + Gonzalez = $183M (excluding options/incentives for simplicity) Added ~$55M to 2020 payroll -> projected 10.1 fWAR in 2020 per steamer ($5.45M/fWAR) Machado $30M in 2020 -> projected 4.6 fWAR in 2020 per steamer ($6.52M/fWAR) This is why signing Machado never made sense. And the impact of multiple signings to fill multiple glaring holes only makes the argument stronger if you were to do a comparison versus the cheaper backup alternative (e.g., Keuchel vs Covey, Grandal vs McCann, etc). Still another ~$70M to burn so now go out and get an established DH and RP to finish this thing off.

I didn’t think they’d pull it off the way things were headed this offseason but signing Keuchel was so very desperately needed if they wanted any shot at contending in 2020. I still think the starting staff is average overall but average is better than what they’ve had in recent years and at least now there’s a bit of depth as well.

I take back everything I said! Didn’t think Jerry and the boys had it in them, now go get a DH and RP. Go Sox!!!

I’m not even questioning TA’s projections all that much (though they do appear to be on the high end) but the only way Lindor doesn’t exceed 10 WAR over the next two seasons combined is if he misses time due to injury. You’re too low on him.

What source are you using for projected wins above replacement? Please post a link. I’m curious.

And you called my citing of Giolito’s 2020 projection dumb...?

Without a doubt, I’d trade TA for Lindor straight up right now. I’d be surprised if the Indians seriously considered that type of offer though.

I’ve got Kopech in there. I’m not expecting much of anything from Dunning or Rodon in 2020.

2019 => 2020 Giolito => Giolito Lopez => Lopez Nova => Gonzalez Cease plus pile of suck => Cease Rodon plus pile of suck => ? Plus Kopech at least that’s how I see it. Just have to hope for no injuries because then we’re back to pile of suck as the replacement...

Again, Gio is fine but you’re definitively taking the over on 2.0 fWAR for Gio in 2020? I’m not so sure about that.

My comparison was 2019 Nova vs 2020 Gio since 2019 Nova is who he is replacing correct?

I’m fine with the signing but just wanted to point out this really isn’t an upgrade from Nova, at least as far as the projections are concerned. Projections have Gio at 1.5 fWAR in 2020 and Nova produced 2.0 fWAR in 2019.

Thought this article was relevant; https://www.soxmachine.com/2019/12/18/zips-projections-are-where-white-soxs-growth-weaknesses-collide/

Contend for the division in 2020? Maybe. I still like the Twins and Indians’ rosters better (assuming the Indians don’t trade any more key veterans). Contend for the World Series, which I thought was the entire point of the rebuild? Not a chance. You have to do far better than Keuchel or Price as your #2.

Point is “the contending in 2020” ship has already sailed. This is not what was sold to fans at the start of either of the last two offseasons. Meanwhile, they are planning to burn another year of cheap control on Moncada and Giolito. If last offseason didn’t already upset you, now is precisely the time to be upset.

What quality free agent starting pitchers are left after Ryu and Keuchel though?

Here’s the problem. You can’t win the AL pennant against teams built like the Astros, Red Sox, and Yankees by fielding 5 average MLB starting pitchers. If they aren’t going to sign a bona fide #1 or #2 from outside the organization then you need at least two of Giolito, Kopech, Cease, Lopez etc to emerge and remain consistent top of rotation starters AND the rest to be solid mid to back of rotation starters. This is a plan destined for failure. Other than KC, I can’t think of a single World Series team over the past decade that didn’t have at least two studs at the top of the rotation and good depth beyond that.