JUSTgottaBELIEVE

That ship sailed a year ago. I was advocating for an extension before the 2019 season started. Too late now. I started anther thread on this topic already but a pivot to trading Moncada for a package of premier MLB ready prospects is the right move at this point in the rebuild imo. 2020 is already another lost season so bring in young studs like Lux and May now to take their licks in 2020 so they are ready to roll come 2021.

At this point, it would be the smart thing to do if they can get a haul in return (think Lux, May, Gray from the Dodgers).

It’s not ridiculous. It was clear more than a year ago that this team’s greatest need was pitching. That much was readily apparent and then only further compounded with major injuries to Kopech, Dunning, and Rodon. It would have been extremely foolish to allocate $30M+ AAV to a player like Machado for a team that operates under a constrained budget on an annual basis and when infield was already the organization’s greatest strength. I’ve been saying for two years now that as much $$$ as possible should be allocated towards the pitching staff. And yet here we are two offseasons later without a single significant FA signing to supplement the starting pitching staff. It’s absurd. And I agree with you that it is pointless to sign two 5th starter types at this point in the offseason but they’ve had plenty of opportunities to sign one or two Tier 2 guys over the last year plus. Next winter’s FA SP crop doesn’t look any better, that’s for sure. What are they waiting for?

And that’s assuming the starter they sign is viable rather than a Derek Holland or Ervin Santana type. It’s also assuming relatively good health from the guys slotted in. If Kopech has a setback or, god forbid, Giolito or Cease miss an extended period due to injury things could easily end up worse than 2019. Signing just one 5th starter type this offseason would be a far worse failure than missing on Machado last winter.

Not everyone on the pitching staff is young and the youngest member (Cease) is projected to improve from 2019. The bullpen mostly consists of veterans that have been in the league for several years. Cordero is probably the biggest unknown in the bullpen at this point.

I’m not sure how you assess the the overall impact of an improved lineup on wins/losses in 2020 compared to last season without also assessing the pitching staff. I believe it’s relevant to your original post since next season’s record is mentioned towards the end of the post.

I cited regression from last season and steamer as one of many projections available supporting it. I agree that 3.3 is certainly on the low end but it think there is a less than 50% chance he meets or exceeds 5.1 in 2020. So, again, I’m expecting some regression. I expect improvement from Cease and Lopez to be more or less the same guy he’s been the last 2+ seasons. What’s left after that?? Banking on a full recovery and immediate impact from the likes of Kopech and Rodon? Where’s the depth? How has the bullpen improved? It’s bleak right now and FA options are lessening by the day.

I understand but if I’m a betting man I’m taking the under on Giolito hitting 5.1 fWAR again in 2020. I’m a big fan of Giolito but to expect him to exceed what he did last season is foolish imo. Dismiss the projections all you want but the starting staff is ultra thin right now and if they go dumpster diving for one or two starters this winter, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if the entire staff as a whole is worse in 2020 than it was in 2019 (again, what have they done to improve the bullpen?)

Based on recent dumpster diving 5th starter FA signings, yes. Unless of course they actually decide to spend money to sign a legitimate starter.

Show me a single projection that indicates Giolito will exceed his 5.1 fWAR from last season. I’m not saying he can’t do or won’t do it but I can’t find a projection that says he is likely to.

Two questions. Who is the Nova replacement projected for 2.0 fWAR and who replaces one of those guys when they inevitably miss starts due to injury (e.g. long man)?

The fact is the White Sox pitching staff is mediocre at best and VERY thin. If any one of Giolito, Cease, Lopez goes down with an injury we are back to the Covey and Fulmer types again. There’s zero depth even if they bring in two reclamation projects like Wood and Walker.

Stop saying I don’t understand it. If you don’t think there is a decent chance for regression and/or injury from Giolito I’m not sure what to tell you.

Based on the projected regression from the rest of the staff, the Sox need to still sign to sign two starters that significantly outproduce what they received from Nova and the group of garbage you reference above. I’m not sold that digging in the garbage pile again with guys like Wood, Walker, etc will lead to results that significantly outproduce Nova + group of garbage.

Like I said, just check the Steamer projections. It’s all there.

Easier said than done these days. Would it really surprise you to see the Sox sign Alex Wood and for him to have a 2017 Derek Holland type season in 2020? Wouldn’t surprise me.

Bullpen too - Colome, Bummer, Marshall, etc.

and every one of the pitchers you listed in the last paragraph is projected to produce less than the 2.0 fWAR produced by Nova last season.

Steamer is projecting regression from majority of the staff minus Cease. Whether or not their projections are accurate is another question altogether but that’s what it’s showing.

Weird that the state income tax rate in Illinois is now being implied as an excuse for the White Sox inability to sign upper tier free agents. Cubs didn’t have an issue in the past and teams in California and New York don’t seem to have a problem despite much higher state rates.

As it stands today, even if the Sox brought back a Nova type to fill the #5 spot, it appears the pitching staff as a whole is projected to be worse In 2020 than they were in 2019. There are plenty of reasons for optimism with the everyday lineup but all hope is lost with this pitching staff. It’s why it is simply incredible and frustrating that they are not investing significantly in free agent pitching to push this team to the next level.

I’m asking based on current projections. How does the current pitching staff project compared to what they produced last season? Still around 9th in the league?

How do the current projections look for the pitching staff and where would it rank in the AL? I imagine they’d be in the bottom 5 in the league without any further moves of significance.

This winter’s class of free agent starting pitchers is much stronger than next winter’s. If they cannot find a way to add a significant contributor in this class, good luck with that next winter.

Sounds like bmags agrees with me!