JUSTgottaBELIEVE

I’ve said it before but it bears repeating. The infield (excluding the catcher’s position) is the least of my concerns for this team moving forward. It was basically league average last year and TA and Moncada should only improve from here. One of the reasons why I wasn’t a supporter of a Machado signing. Better to use those financial resources in areas of greater need (catcher and starting pitching are two glaring areas of need).

But someone said the other day starting pitching should be this organizations strength which is why they should have spent their financial resources on manny and Harper. Lol, the starting staff is brutal and will be awful for the foreseeable future. Anyone thinking the Sox won’t need to dip into free agency or trades to fill at least 2 spots in the starting rotation is kidding themselves. At least the infield is league average as currently constructed. The outfield is terrible but that’s the one true strength of the current minor league system so that should improve in time.

How great it would be if Rondon had a better career than Tatis Jr.

Again, if the Yankees were truly sold on Harper and Manny they would have made room for them. You’re telling me the Yankees don’t have a spot for those guys because they’re blocked by Brett Gardner and Didi (hurt to start the season and then FA in 8 months)? LOL. Same with the Dodgers, etc.

He’s certainly a better fit for the Phillies than the Sox given the current state of each rebuild (as was Machado). Phillies are just now emerging from a 6 year rebuild and trending in the right direction. They also have a much better idea of where their weaknesses lie with far fewer holes to fill. Again, just my opinion, but the Sox aren’t there yet which is why I’ve said all along that the pursuit of these guys feels premature (anywhere from 1-3 years premature).

You’re right. I was just rattling off a handful of obvious names but I’m sure there are a few others I left out.

I guess I find it difficult to pay “next tier” guys like Harper and Machado $300M+ contracts. Those types of contracts could destroy a mid market team like the Sox if they don’t live up to their contract. Apparently, many other teams felt the same way. Also, I’m only advocating for signing JDM, Goldy, etc. next winter if the young core takes a huge step forward this season. If they don’t and the Sox put up another 100 loss season, then you wait until the team is closer to competing to make a big splash. I’m not saying they need to be a 85 win team before making a big move but I’d at least like to see them as a 75+ win team that’s headed in the right direction. We still don’t know what we have here with a lot of these young guys. And quite frankly, if the young guys don’t develop what’s the point in having a $30-35M player on a 85+ loss team? What if the Sox develop a bunch of solid OFs from their minor league system but can’t seem to develop a catcher or starting rotation? Now we’ve tied up a huge sum of money for a player that’s a marginal upgrade from pre arb players and tied our hands on filling more pressing needs since significant resources have already been expended. Stars and scrubs roster just like pre rebuild.

Let’s take a closer look at this. Why were many big spenders sitting on the sidelines for these two guys this winter? Luxury tax isn’t going away in the future unless something happens with the new CBA. Or could it be perhaps that the big spenders view these two players as somewhat flawed and not worthy of $300M+ contracts. Would the big spenders be sitting on the sidelines if Lindor and Trout were available instead of Machado and Harper? I doubt it. That tells me something about how even the big spenders are valuing Machado and Harper.

My point is this winter in which Harper and Manny being available as sub 30 yo megastars isn’t as rare as everyone is making it out to be. But it’s a once in a lifetime opportunity! No, actually it’s not. But all the big spenders are sitting on the sidelines! Ok but these guys are still getting their $300M+ contracts so who GAF.

Bogaerts is so versatile and could easily slide over to 3b even if TA emerges this year and Moncada and/or Madrigal do not. He’d be a great fit and the fact that he’s even younger than Machado is just icing on the cake. He should definitely be a target for the Sox in another 8 months.

Position player superstars scheduled to hit free agency over the next 3 years (unless they sign extensions of course but we already know a few plan to test the market for sure): Trout, Betts, Lindor, Correa, Seager, Bryant, Baez, Stanton (if he opts out).

Every player ages differently. And besides, even with a stellar .393 OBP and .889 OPS last year, he managed just 1.3 bWAR and 3.5 fWAR. That’s pretty weak. Sure that’s worth $330M+?

Here’s the other thing I don’t understand. Why is it a guarantee that Harper will only improve from here because of his age? 3 of his 4 best seasons occurred pre-2016. He was a better player (per fangraphs) when he was 19/20 years old than he was when he was 25 years old. Why is it a sure thing that he’ll be better at ages 26-29 than he was at ages 23-25?

Bolded is highly debatable. Biggest name, sure, but better player? Hasn’t been in the past 3 years and not sure he is over the next 3 years either.

Here’s the list (excluding Machado and Arenado since they just signed) Stanton, Cabrera, Cano, Pujols, Votto, Price, Scherzer, Greinke, Heyward, Verlander, Hernandez, Strasburg, Altuve, Davis, Kemp. 3 rings combined after signing their massive contracts. I wouldn’t call the Price and Heyward signings good investments unless they really crank it up on the second half of their contracts and then you have Verlander (great investment but didn’t win a ring until after he was traded by the team that signed him). Based on that list, sure seems like Manny and Harper signings are no brainers for a team like the Sox. But I guess I’m the crazy one.

How exactly are the top 10 free agents next winter retreads? You’re grouping players like Rendon, JDM, Goldy in with the Melkys and Laroches of the world. That’s ridiculous.

Just curious, how many WS rings do the current top 15 MLB players have after signing their huge contracts?

Where did I say that? I said a “solid” 32 yo geezer like Turner has worked out ok for the Dodgers but you want to rule out all FAs 30+.

I’d love Bogaerts but view JDM and Goldschmidt as far more realistic targets. A 2020 lineup with Moncada, Eloy, JDM, and Goldschmidt would be fun to watch. But of course they will be 32 yo by then so they might suddenly forget how to hit.

You know, the 32 year old geezer at the time of his signing back in 2017 and has proceeded to put up 5.4 and 4.2 fWAR seasons since then. But I guess everyone over 30 sucks so I can’t figure out how he’s already exceeded the value of his free agent 4 year contract in just two seasons... https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.mlb.com/212210494-justin-turner-signs-4-year-deal-with-dodgers.amp.html

If this is your argument for “loaded” at starting pitcher then they are “loaded” with position players between all their OF prospects, Moncada, TA, Madrigal, Collins, etc. A guy like Collins has far better odds of making an impact at the big league level than Medieros, Adams, and anyone currently after those guys combined. Lopez is the closest thing to a sure bet in the 2022 starting rotation and that’s a scary thought.

Yep, as are the guys available next winter. Actually Cole, Sale, and Bumgarner (if healthy) are better than Lester was when he signed with the Cubs. Similarly, Rendon, JDM, Bogaerts, and Goldschmidt aren’t too shabby either. Superstars? Nah, but damn good players.

Correct. There are so many holes on this roster right now and I’d say starting pitching is shaping up to be a much bigger need than position players with the way the pitching prospects are getting injured and/or underperforming. Also, very likely the Sox draft a position player at #3 than a pitcher so there’s that as well.

JDM, Lester, Turner, Cain, et . were once solid free agents too. Record setting contracts are often terrible investments.

How do you figure the Sox will have the starting pitching? Gio, Kopech, and Cease are all question marks at this point and Rodon is a free agent after the 2021 season.