JUSTgottaBELIEVE

I’ll be shocked if the Sox don’t break the organization’s record for guaranteed money to a FA signing next winter. I have no idea who that player will be but I fully expect them to spend more than $68M on a single player. There are a number of players that fall into the $68M to $100M contract range that are both viable and really good options. I’ve stated JDM is my personal preference but I also like the idea of Castellanos.

Players like Colome, Herrera, Nova, and Jay aren’t necessarily bad additions. Those guys are useful pieces for many contenders. They only look bad because there is nothing else around them. If the prospects develop as we are hoping, those guys are solid complementary pieces. Colome and Herrera would be high leverage relievers on most teams. Nova would be a #5 starter at worst on most teams. Jay would be a 4th OF on a lot of teams.

Why rule out all free agents ages 29-35? That makes no sense. The Cubs don’t win the World Series without signing 31 year old Jon Lester.

Ok, I think a team payroll next year of $125M certainly still allows them the type of flexibility they desire in the future.

Where did he say a team payroll of $100M was some magical threshold for the organization? I don’t recall that.

I mean they did bring in a bunch of MLB players this winter (not stars but actual MLB players) and are still under $100M. Even if they add a few more of those next winter, which should become more difficult to find a roster spot for marginal MLB talent if the prospects perform and start filling those spots, they will still be looking at a sub $100M payroll unless they add impact FA players.

Not to mention they only have $12.5M in payroll commitments next season.

Isn’t Archer essentially a modern day Javy Vazquez? Advanced metrics love him and his FIP/WAR always look great but he consistently underperforms his advanced metrics with a very mediocre ERA. He’s also on the wrong side of 30 and his numbers have regressed for several years now. Hard pass, especially if a trade involves anyone of value.

Does Lambert ever throw a ball? Serious question because I feel like he’s only thrown strikes this spring.

Even with a repeat of his 2018 season this year, I’d still be shocked if he beats $110M guaranteed. How many AL teams, besides the white sox, are willing to pay that kind of money that don’t already have the DH slot covered?

You still haven’t explained why his list of suitors and market will greatly improve from what he experienced last winter. I would be shocked if he exceeds $110 guaranteed.

I believe 4/85 with a fifth option in the range of $20M with a $5 buyout is the type of contract JD will be looking at. I don’t see him topping his 5/110 contract signed with the Red Sox since he will be two years older and likely have a QO attached (whereas he didn’t last time around). Unless he experiences significant regression this year, I’d be all over 4/85 with a fifth year option. Even if he averages 135 wRC+ over those 4 years, which is a substantial drop in production from his last two years, he’d still compile ~10 fWAR over that period with ~500 PA/yr.

What makes you think he will beat his 5/110 contract he signed with the Red Sox when he was 30 yo rather than 32 yo?

Agreed!

I’m warming on the idea of Castellanos. More versatile and younger than JD. Having said that, I’d still prefer JD.

If we got 150, 136, 130, and 115 from JD on a 4/$85M type contract, I’d be thrilled.

No question but like you said even if he regresses some and becomes a 135 wRC+ hitter he’s still a top 20 hitter in MLB. When’s the last time the Sox had two of the top 20 best hitters in baseball (assuming Eloy becomes that in the near future)? edit: guess they were close in 2017 due to Avi’s fluke season but I imagine the last time they came anywhere close (outside of 2017) was over a decade ago.

Sox fans are so scarred that they are viewing a stud like JD in the same vein as LaRoche and Dunn. Two completely different animals. JD is not a tier 3/4 FA signing like many of the guys they’ve signed in year’s past. He was the #3 hitter in baseball by wRC+ last season.

This is likely his last chance to cash in on a big payday. Considering EE signed a 3/60 deal with the Indians two years ago at age 34, I’d be shocked if JD doesn’t beat that easily at age 32 unless he has a bad season in 2019. JD is a much better hitter than EE was when he entered free agency, also as a DH only type.

I’d be fine with Collins rotating between catcher, 1b, and DH (sitting against lefty starters) but I really hope the Sox acquire a plus defender at catcher. I don’t think either of those two guys are that.

You don’t think JD will be able to beat $62.5M on the open market next winter? I think he easily beats that if he has another big season in 2019.

That’d be great. Field an entire everyday lineup of 2-3 WAR players, and if they can pull together a decent starting staff, they should be an annual division contender or favorite in the Central. Should be able to fill about 6 spots internally and then fill the other 3 via FA or trade.

That’s actually not adjusting expectations down all that much. Castellanos will be one of the top free agents in 8 months. A really good fit at DH for a Sox lineup in need of middle of the order bats and only 4 months older than Machado. Shouldn’t cost a ton either due to his defensive limitations and probably 2-3 WAR production out of the DH slot. That’ll work. Perhaps the consolation prize to JDM but 4 years younger.

Pick one. Here’s the list: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/08/2019-20-mlb-free-agents.html Mine is JD Martinez. Yes, he’s a full time DH and, yes, he will be 32 years old. But he’s also one of the best hitters in the game right now and I’d love seeing what a lineup with Madrigal, Moncada, Martinez (killer Ms), and Eloy could do next year. That’d be fun.

They were also 2 WAR players at less than 25 yo last season. Based on last year’s performance, they are already average starters. Slight improvement and these are 3-4 WAR players, top 10 players at their position.