JUSTgottaBELIEVE

And they don’t even need 32/33 starts from him. Just until July, ~18 starts.

I’m probably delusional but I just have this feeling that one of Soroka, Fedde, or Kopech will have a strong first half of the season and be a desirable asset for the Sox at the trade deadline.

I never considered the Rangers as a trade partner but it makes sense if they miss out on Montgomery. They have some very interesting buy low candidates in Leiter and Rocker. Owen White is interesting too. I’ve been reading they’re basically going to have to trade Foscue because he’s blocked. A package of Walcott/Foscue/Leiter/Rocker would be the ultimate high risk high reward.

Why are you certain that Ortiz is ahead of Mateo and Urias this season? Those two are only 2-3 years older than Ortiz but have already proven they’re positive WAR players in mlb (something Ortiz has yet to prove).

And an excellent example of the above is Oscar Colas. His trade value was significantly higher a year ago than it is today. He’s also 25 right now but had a s%*# showing for the white sox last season. Today, no one would seriously consider him as a second piece in a trade for a pitcher like Cease. Same could easily happen to Ortiz even if he gets 250 PAs this season, which I don’t see happening at all. Just sayin, haven’t seen that possibility discussed by Orioles fans when it’s an even greater likelihood than Cease getting hurt between now and July. And that’s why including a guy like Ortiz as a THIRD piece for the Orioles makes a lot of sense if the Sox are even interested. But honestly, it makes more sense to trade Ortiz in a deal for a far lesser SP.

You expect Ortiz to get significant playing time for the orioles in 2024? How do you figure? Something went very wrong with their current mlb players if that happens (injuries I suppose). And even with significant mlb playing time, if he can’t hit mlb pitching, his value could very well still be less a year from now. He hasn’t proven anything in mlb yet but will need to do so very soon!

Honestly, it’s both. The longer they hold on to a guy like Ortiz in AAA, the less he becomes worth due to age and if they still have him there in AAA another 18 months from now (or riding the bench in mlb) yea he’s pretty much worthless. A third or fourth piece at best in a trade for a significant SP.

No absolutes there other than if you hold on to Nicky Ortiz for another 12-24 months in AAA, his value WILL absolutely plummet. Heck, it’s already dropping as we’re seeing from top prospects lists…

That’s not at all what I said lol. Improve your reading comprehension sir.

Somebody over there gets it!

Let me put this plainly: if Joey Ortiz gets 75 mlb plate appearances for the Orioles in 2024 and plays similar to what he did last season in a small sample size but is another year older and still largely unproven, you think his value this time next year will be equal to or higher than it is right now? He’d be a 26.5 year old with little to no mlb experience. The age concern doesn’t apply to established mlb veterans (unless they’re like 30+). The biggest factor for them assuming performance is similar to prior years is team control (because this has $ implications) and surplus value (again, $ implications relative to performance and age becomes a factor for a long contract not one that’s less than 2 years). No one is worried that Cease is another 6 months older in July 2024 than he is today if his performance is on par with the past 3 years. Yes, he would have half a season of less control than today but if a first or second place team at the deadline is making that deal that won’t matter much. Now if the Sox hold him until July 2025, that would have a significant impact on his value. But age won’t factor in for an established mlb vet under 30.

Because age is working against them, unlike Cease. Unless you expect all those guys to have significant mlb roles in 2024? Even another huge season in AAA doesn’t help their trade value because they’re old for that level from a prospect perspective.

Some of those fans would rather hold onto guys like Ortiz, McDermott, etc. until they’re essentially worthless. Makes sense. At least those advocating for holding Cease until July understand the risk that comes with that but there’s also potential upside/more value by waiting if the offers aren’t there right now while a bunch of free agent SP are still on the market. I’m not sure some Orioles fans understand the risk with holding a bunch of these guys until they become non-prospects and/or utility players like Ryan McKenna. Gotta strike while they still have value. Plus, they’ll have a major 40-man roster crunch soon if they don’t move guys.

Hey, I actually agree with you. It’s why the Orioles are a bad match. Their top 3 are untouchable apparently and the other top prospects are all relatively old for prospects. Yankees make the most sense and I still think they need a guy like Cease for that rotation. I’m still hoping they miss out on Snell.

Sure but many Orioles fans have said Westburg and Kjerstad are off limits. Many don’t mind giving Cowser because he sucked in a short mlb stint last season. “Some” also don’t mind giving Ortiz for obvious reasons. Again, trading for a guy like Cease is going to hurt and giving up your “spare” parts certainly doesn’t hurt. If only spare parts are being offered then it’s obvious the Orioles won’t be acquiring Cease or any other comparable pitcher that might be available.

3 top 100 guys would be a haul. I’m not a big fan of Pereira but would love to add Hampton and Arias if Jones is off limits.

Yea, that’s the funny thing. They all want to harp on the potential for Cease’s trade value to drop between now and July when it’s more likely that Ortiz, Kjerstad, Cowser, McDermott have an even greater chance of seeing their trade value decline due to age. Maybe they’ll eventually understand that, maybe. Teams like the Dodgers certainly do.

So yea, any offer that starts with Jones/Hampton beats any Orioles offering under the assumption that the top 3/4 are off limits. Will the Yankees cave on Getz’s demand for two premium prospects? Guess we’ll find out over the next 3 weeks…

Yankees have the same number of top 100 prospects on the Baseball America list as the orioles and I’ve been told the Orioles top 3 (some say top 4) are untouchable. Despite that, I’ve also been told teams like the Yankees couldn’t compete with an offer from the orioles (again, without including any of the orioles top 3/4 prospects). Huh

@Rolle Tide says we shouldn’t depend on just one prospect list but if Nicky Ortiz somehow still cracks the top 100 on mlb pipeline’s list (I don’t think he will) that’s exactly what he will do

?

Ok, we’ll talk again in a couple weeks when Nicky Ortiz drops in MLB pipeline’s updated list too…

The irony is next offseason after they win less than 88 games in 2024, miss the playoffs, AND fall out of the top 5 farm system rankings (aka follow the White Sox recent rebuild path).

I’m surprised @Sports Guyor @Rolle Tide haven’t opined on the BP top 101 list just released Re: Nicky Ortiz. They had a lot to say about him a couple weeks ago and more recently were laughing on their message board at the idea that Ortiz had fallen out of the top 100. ?