Vance Law

QUOTE(winninguglyin83 @ Jan 30, 2007 -> 11:45 AM) Only waY i can see this changing is if they fear Pods is going to be out for a long time -- like until July. Maybe Stewart will take a cheap deal with incentives because he wants to win. More aging left-handed outfielders, this one with with no power or speed or ability to play centerfield and with injury issues to their feet? And who already asked for too much money and was turned down by the Sox. We got Erstad, first and foremost, because we had only BA who could play CF. For leftfielders it looks like we're going to have to make do with just Mackowiak, Pods, Erstad, Ozuna, and Fields. We probably won't add a 6th LF unless a meteor hits half the team during a spring-training game.

QUOTE(Gene Honda Civic @ Jan 29, 2007 -> 10:36 PM) Reading the other thread where it said there were only 6 pitchers listed... Bailey and Hughes are obvious, with Gallardo being the next most obvious inclusion. All righties. Next comes the Pelfreys and Humbers, though I wouldn't be surprised to see either off the list... Apparently Garza was 5th. After that it gets a little more complicated. There are really only three lefties in baseball that you can make a solid case for ahead of Danks, two are with the Dodgers; Kershaw (prolly not listed because he's still a ways off) and Elbert. The other is Detroit's Andrew Miller. Actually it's Lincecum after Gallardo. Pelfrey, Humber, Adenhart, Bucholz, Brandon Erbe, and Hurley are Honorable Mentions. Humber was knocked down on the list do to "continued arm troubles."

QUOTE(Flash Tizzle @ Jan 29, 2007 -> 10:27 PM) Well, you indirectly answered one of the questions I posed in another thread. http://www.soxtalk.com/forums/index.php?sh...p;#entry1348466 Didn't see that thread. Danks is the top LHP in the ESPN list (the only one in the top 25). 12 more players are listed as Honorable Mentions, and the Indians Chuck Lofgren is the only LHP.

Proximity to major leagues is a major criteria- most people on the list have AA or AAA experience, and no one who can no longer qualify as an MLB rookie, Fields at #17. Says he close to Crede with the bat already and shows better strike-zone command than typical for multi-sport guys (hasn't been focused only on baseball for all that long). With Fields and now Erstad, the Sox could put up one hell of a football team, once they get like 20 more football players. The point is, they could field one hell of a 2-man Punt, Pass. Kick Competition team. Top 4 in the AL Central at least, anyway. Danks is #24. He's the 6th of only 6 pitchers on the list, right behind Garza. Chris Young, incidentally, is listed as #3. Woops-a-daisy.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2746163 Good gravy, they could throw out a lineup that starts with: Youkilis Helton Ortiz Ramirez Drew Their OBP would be absurd. It would kind of surprise me if the Yankees didn't try to get in on the bidding. A huge upgrade at 1B for them, plus trying to keep him out of Boston.

QUOTE(effectivelywild @ Jan 26, 2007 -> 02:25 PM) Really? I haven't picked it up yet. Did he mention why he's lowered the rate? I was slightly off in my recollection, but close. On page 292 he's talking about getting thrown out on the basepaths, not on steal attempts, but trying to take an extra base: "For a runner in scoring position to try to take an extra bse is not a breakeven gamble, or anything like a breakeven gamble. It's not even like a stolen base attempt, which breaks even about 65% to 67%."

I don't recall, but I can check it this evening.

QUOTE(LVSoxFan @ Jan 26, 2007 -> 01:09 PM) In '04 that five-hole absolutely killed us. The 2, 3, 4, and 5 holes killed us in '04. Buehrle was the only one better than league average. Same as last year (with Contreras, not Buehrle). The 5 hole can't kill us in '07 either. 3 or 4 or 5 bad starters can kill us. It boggles my mind how much complaining and aruing goes on about Podsednik, Uribe, and Anderson's offense- on a team with the number 3 offense in baseball. And it was outright idiotic how much the media jumped on the "smart/small/Ozzie-ball" buzzword bandwagon in '05, when it's beyond obvious that you can win a lot of games ('05) if you have the best pitching in the league, even if you have a mediocre/bottom half of the league offense. Put the '06 offense with the '05 pitching and we'd win roughly 194 games.

QUOTE(TLAK @ Jan 25, 2007 -> 10:20 PM) Last year, Erstad hit as well as Brian Anderson despite playing on one leg. At the very least he is somebody who Brian has to compete with for playing time. Should Erstad hit .273 like he did in ’05 and field CF responsibly, it will provide a floor for Brian. Having watched virtually every game last year, I don’t think Anderson has reached the maturity to be entirely self motivated, and knowing he has to play better than Erstad or grab some pine will make him an improved player. Yeah! Someone made an intelligent, reasonable, well though-out post in this thread without resorting to lame insults and hyperbole!

QUOTE(effectivelywild @ Jan 25, 2007 -> 10:45 PM) In a slightly different vein, I think I've read that a base-stealer needs to have a ~75% success rate to break even in terms of net runs created. Anyone else heard this? Certainly this may be a bit different in close-and-late games, in which the difference between a man on first and a man on second can be more valuable. In this year's Handbook, Bill James claims the break even point to be about a 64% or 65% stolen base rate.

QUOTE(ptatc @ Jan 25, 2007 -> 07:58 AM) Right out of a Bill James textbook. There are other factors. The stress of the pitcher throwing over to first if a guy has a reputation to steal. Believe it or not pitchers are human they can become distracted and worry about a guy threatening to steal. This has become more apparent in today's game because few players steal as much so the pitchers are uncomfortable when they see it. This is what I'd like to see statistics on. The effect of a base-stealer on the pitcher, the batter, and the game in general. What is the batter's batting average with a serious base-stealer on first w/ no outs/one out, etc? What is the pitcher's ERA, BAA, how many pitches does he throw, etc. ? How many thrown-away into right-field pick-off attempts did the base-stealer cause? How many throws into centerfield that allowed him to advance to third. Get on this, Bill James. Jerk. This stuff seemed really noticeable when Pods was dominating in the first half of '05. I was just looking at the mlb highlight archive '05. Two games in one week in like May where Pods stole 4 bases in the game. Dang! Totally different subject. James does have all of these manager statistics in the Handbook, but I wish he had 3rd base coach stats so we could see just how many times Cora sent AJ to get gunned-down easily.

QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Jan 23, 2007 -> 06:28 PM) Erstad's highest OBP since 2000? .346. With an average OBP about .320. It is a good thing that this backup outfielder/insurance policy improves the bench and will have virtually no impact on the outcome of the season.

QUOTE(witesoxfan @ Jan 23, 2007 -> 05:23 PM) Maybe I'm a psycho, but I'd almost prefer to see Sweeney get the majority of the ABs if Podsednik goes down, just to see if he can hit .270, regardless of the power numbers he puts up. I agree with this. If Pods is injured or sucks cause he's hurt, Sweeney should be in there.

QUOTE(Kalapse @ Jan 23, 2007 -> 12:14 PM) If Erstad is capable of playing a passable CF for next season (which I really don't think he can) then I suppose he's not the absolute worst option, close but not quite it'll be like having Timo back again. Of course when he does go down with an injury or shows ineptitude in the OF it's going to really suck going another season without a legit 4th OF. What it comes down to is what is the most pressing need/what one thing can help us the most. There likely isn't going to be one player out there available who can fix every minor need on offense/defense. Is it someone who can play a viable CF and is better than a minor-leaguer with the bat? Is it a hot shot right-handed bat to fill in for Thome 20 games a year? Is it a strong defensive first baseman? My guess is that the organization feels that a viable backup cf is the biggest need. Erstad's ability to play first base and his other intagibles are a bonus. There really aren't that many viable backup cf's available. There aren't any of those that are still free agents other than Erstad and Steve Finley. Would it be better if we could get a righty? You bet. But who is he? We've got Terrero.

QUOTE(Kalapse @ Jan 22, 2007 -> 10:10 PM) I think our bench could use a right handed bat with Power to give Thome days off against Tough Lefties I assume you mean Vinny Castilla. QUOTE(Kalapse @ Jan 22, 2007 -> 10:10 PM) He recently said it himself that he may not be able to play CF anymore, period. His lateral movement is all but gone as well as any makeup speed he had at one time, his arm is subpar and his instincts are completely out of whack after being away from the position for 3 years and barely playing baseball at all last season. The funny thing is I used to be a HUGE fan of his because of my love of all things defense, he and Edmonds were about as good as it got during the 97 and 98 seasons, super fun. However, that Darin Erstad is long gone the new no power slick fielding firstbaseman Erstad is all you're going to be seeing these days. Hopefully he's not, like, lying QUOTE(Kalapse @ Jan 22, 2007 -> 10:10 PM) He [Erstad] recently said that he is feeling well enough to center field every day

QUOTE(rudylaw @ Jan 17, 2007 -> 09:00 AM) That is crazy. That was my 1st game too. I have been hooked ever since. For real? That is nuts. The Justice System! If I recall correctly, Jerry Hairston drew a pinch-hit walk to bring Baines to the plate.

Something tells me we are going to get him, just a gut feeling. Hopefully his crap year last year was due to his injury. Hopefully if he still sucks this year, he'll barely play. Hopefully we pay him very little, with performance incentives.

He was able to use his speed to be not too shabby in LF last year, but CF could really expose his flaws. http://www.suntimes.com/sports/deluca/2218...T-cub21.article

"Backloaded" because he's not a free agent for another 3 years. The first 3 years represent approximations of what he'd get in arbitration. Then the free-agent dollars kick in. Damn good deal for the Phillies. He's head-and-shoulders above any other second baseman. Maybe Cano is closest, but he hasn't shown either the power or the speed that Utley has. Somebody please put up a Soriano-vs.-Utley-ometer somewhere to track who performs better over the course of their 7 year contracts.

Yeah, Nixon is certainly valuable with that OBP. Somewhat strange signing in that Cleveland now has 5 outfielders, and none of them are getting any at bats at DH until Hafner takes a fastball to the nutz and misses the last month.

QUOTE(santo=dorf @ Jan 17, 2007 -> 06:26 PM) LOL at Thome having a "career year." Even the "age and experience" doesn't cover up this load of bull. Look at Thome's career stats. 2005 is the abnormal year, not 2006. Dye may not reproduce last year's numbers, but that certainly doesn't mean he won't be productive or a great hitter. Agreed. 2006 was pretty typical for Thome. Look at the year before his injury. Then also look at basically every other year he's played. But he might get injured! Well he was hurt in the second half. Missed some time and played through pain and only hit like 12 homers after the allstar break. And he still hit 42 homers. Plus they've said they plan to rest him more regularly so he won't wear down. And if they don't, and he does wear down in the second half, I expect.....about 42 Thomers from him and an OPS above 1.000. And since Dye cannot and will not have a season like last year, I expect something between '05 and '06- .295 batting average and about 37 homers. Guesstimate: Dye + Anderson in '06 will equal Dye + Anderson in '07. I give Anderson a Rowand-like 13 homers this year.

QUOTE(TLAK @ Jan 18, 2007 -> 06:07 AM) Head to head, the Central went 86-86 V the East in 2006. Minnesota………22-13 Detroit……………16-17 Chicago……………17-17 Cleveland………19-14 Kansas City…12-25 Geez, who the heck did Detroit beat last year? The didn't beat the AL East, they didn't beat us. Apparently they beat everyone else.

QUOTE(KevHead0881 @ Jan 17, 2007 -> 10:53 PM) Going out on a limb here: The White Sox, Tigers, Twins and Indians will all contend in 2007. And Travis Hafner will hit about 12 homers off our pitchers. Thats it from me in the prediction department. To be completely honest, the thing I'm most concerned about going into the season is our 1 through 4 starters getting their s*** together. Much more so than our 5th starter. Some people make it sound like we solved our 5th starter problem in 2005. While it was better than the committee of garbage we were throwing out there in the years prior, it certainly wasn't anything beyond mediocre. I know I sure didn't feel very comfortable watching El Duque being thrown out there for 22 starts. Point is, we got to the post season because our 1-4 starters were outstanding for almost the entire season. I can't say I have any idea that Buehrle, Garland, Count and Vazquez will pitch up to, or above, their expectations. But the entire season, IMO, is depending on it. As an optimist, I think they can...but who the hell really knows. Bravo. Well said. I couldn't agree more. We won in '05 because 1-4 were basically dominant. 5 was subpar. Our offense was subpar. Now we have even more leeway with the offense as good as it is. If 1-4 can be at least somewhere halfway between '05 and '06 (an ERA around 4.00) we have a very good shot at the division.

QUOTE(Balance @ Jan 17, 2007 -> 11:49 AM) Most of us thought that there was no way Detroit's pitching would hold for the entire season and we were right: they went 36 - 38 after the all-star break with a 4.29 ERA unfortunately our pitching was even more brutal

There is always the talk of how stacked the AL Central is right now, but I wonder how much (or whether or not they are) better the top 3 in the Central vs. the top 3 in the East are. Is Toronto that much worse than the 3rd place team from the central? Looking at their offense last year, they were seriously unlucky. Of the top 10 teams in OPS last year, 9 were in the top 10 in runs scored and all within 3 positions of their OPS ranking. Toronto was the one that wasn't; they were 2nd in OPS and 12th in runs scored. They had 5 guys with an OPS over .865 last year, and to that they added Dr. OPS, Hank Thomas. Assuming they aren't as unlucky as last year, and everyone doesn't have a bad year, they should score more runs. Their pitching is more a question mark, esp. with the loss of Lilly, and depends a lot on if Burnett stays healthy. But if one of their younger guys steps up, they've got an ace, a strong #2, and an above league-average starter, plus an absurd closer, that's pretty good. Where do folks think they would rank compared to the top 4 in the Central?