JUGGERNAUT

The whole problem with this season is that despite having the best record in MLB the Twinkees are breathing down our necks just 3.5 gb. It makes a fan feel like they are stalking us. Just waiting for the right moment to pounce. It doesn't help that we have 3/4 of our season series left waiting for August. It's nice to think that the best record in MLB guarantees you a playoff spot but it doesn't. Not with the NYY's & BOS playing in your league. There's are teams capable of acquiring talent to go on phenomenal winning streaks. So it's hard to ever imagine the WC coming from the ALC. There is some comfort knowing that after two months of the season the NYY's are a 500 club. But the stalkers from the North make a Sox fan focus on the weaknesses & want to fix them. We don't like stalkers. We like to be playing at a level that puts us in another neighborhood altogether. Right now that looks like our 6/61 3B or last yr's closers. These guys aren't just bad. They are horrible. Shingo's been shelved because he can't throw the frisbee for a strike this year. He's seldom used which means he's just consuming a spot. Crede's ranked 81st amongst starters in the AL. But that's only because of his hot streak that had him hitting over .300 at one time. If you measure it over the last 60AB he's dead last.

I've stated this before & I will state it again. Until you build a college campus environment around US Cell field it will never draw like the Cub. The only major campus there is IIT & enrollment there is < 5000 students. Compare that with Wrigley which is nearby NW, DePaul, DeVry, Loyola, several extension campuses, etc. This has been talked about to death. Wrigley is surrounded by 400,000 people within walking distance of the park WITH disposable income. Can we even say the Cell is surrounded by 25,000 such persons? The bulk of attendance right now is not coming from Bridgeport but rather the south & west suburbs. Attendance is always misleading as an indicator of revenue with the White Sox because they among the highest parking prices in the league. So when 38,000 packed the Cell on Mon night the parking revenue was probably worth another 10,000 in attendance. The White Sox ran in the middle of the pack in revenue each year despite ranking in the bottom 5 in attendance. The cost of going to a game & partaking in the food is a part of that. To increase the attendance the White Sox need to increase the disposable income around the park. How do you do that when you are surrounding by low income housing to the south, industrial warehouses to the north, the expressway to the east, & homes to the west? It's a difficult thing to do. US Cell field is not going to draw the 20-30 somethings like Wrigley does. It doesn't matter what the White Sox do. That crowd is hip to the Cubs & the area around it. You can't do anything about it short of trying to make the area more attractive to college campuses. Fat chance of that happening with the politics involved. Which means the fan base must come from the older crowd & families. Churches, park districts, & townships hold carnival events all summer long. They make use of parking lots that represent about 1 section of the lots at the Cell. The Sox could double decker the South lot & reserve one of the lots closest to the park for a carnival atmosphere. It provides another reason to go to the Cell outside of the game of baseball. It's a low cost value added attraction that has a more general appeal to families. Kids of all ages love carnivals. Just ask your own.

Crede is NOT a GG 3B. Nor will he ever be a GG 3B. Crede might be the best 3B when it comes to fielding weak grounders that he can charge upon. He's good at scooping it up & firing a strike. But he is below average when it comes to a liner near the bag or in the gap. Even worse he is out of position 9 times out of 10 when it comes to receiving a throw at 3B. Some people think he's scared because he refuses to protect the bag. I just think he's stupid. When you sum it all up he's above average at best at 3B. If I were the opposing manager I would run hit & run plays & steal froms 2nd all the time. If he's not going to protect the bag then it's wide open for the opposition. Replacements: Crede is so piss-poor as a hitter right now that all other ML 3B are suitable. http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/battin...in=17&ageMax=51 What I don't understand is why do we think guys who just recently signed new contracts are available? Chavez 66M/6, Lowell 32M/4. Crede is 6/61, Lowell is 8/36, Chavez is 10/50. In the minors ... http://minorleaguebaseball.com/app/milb/st...t=l_bat&lid=117 Trace C 31 yr old CHA .321O, .459S, .286A Slim pickings but maybe he can platoon with Ozuna while Crede figures it out in Charlotte.

Look at that power bat at 3B vote total. I guess WSox fans don't buy into Ozzie ball as much as he'd like them to. I think a solid RH RP (to replace the dissapointments that are Viz, & Shingo) is the greatest need. You can PH at times for Crede but you can't avoid Viz or Shingo's turn to pitch.

Why do you think Beane wants McCarthy? It makes no sense. He's re-vamped the rotation already at the cost of Hudson & Mulder. I would think he has more confidence in the guys he traded for with the aces he gave up. I think he eyes Anderson much more right now because Swisher isn't getting it done in RF for him. Of course he eyes Crede to replace Chavez so what's his next greatest need? RP. I think it's going to cost nothing less than Politte or Marte to pull this off. As for the money I agree with you. KW is asking himself whether he thinks Chavez is a 100R, 110RBI guy on the WSox playing at the Cell. If he thinks he is then the $58M/5yr left on his contract for 2006+ amounts to Maggs money. They were willing to spend it on Maggs so why not Chavez? IMO, money on this deal is not a limiting factor. RPG wise Chavez is currently next to last (Beane can not BS past that - the contract & this fact reduce his trade value substantially). But he finished 10th in 04, 28th in 03, & 29th in 02, 26th in 01, & 39th in 02. It looks like his 04 ranking was a fluke & he more likely is not a top 25 guy. Better than Koney but not as good as Maggs.

Chavez talk has dominated the board so just let me say I disagree with you. BMac is not a pressing need for the A's. They just spent Hudson & Mulder in the off-season to re-vamp their rotation. Beane is not stupid. He knows ATL has one of the best track records for developing young starters & STL is not far behind them. He went to perenial contenders to re-vamp his rotation. Dotel is out for the season & his RF Swisher sucks. In my opinion that places Anderson & a WSox RP has of greater importance to Beane than BMac. If Kenny is willing to spend Politte/Marte in an effort to get Chavez he can probably pull this off. Someone could emerge from AAA for the pen, El Duque could move to the pen & BMac into the rotation, or KW could spin another deal for a proven RP. It would have to be to a contender that is deep with RP & in need of HR.

With Dotel out for the season now Beane is in more need of a RP than a starter. They are riding a 4 gm win streak on Chavez grand slam last night. If he's not conceded the ALW (10 gms out) then he'll want to trade Chavez for talent he thinks can help him win now as well as 2006. He's getting little from Swisher in RF which boosts Anderson's value to them. They spent Hudson & Mulder to revamp their rotation so their need for BMac is not as great now. They have no reasonable backup for Chavez so they would need Crede. Whether it's Marte or Politte, the greatest need for the A's right now is a solid arm to replace Dotel in the pen.

I will remind you again of Chavez contract signed this past yr: $66M/6yr. He's earning $8M this year which leaves $58M/5yr left. He's not performing any where near that level right now. Which means the contract is a major hurt against his trade value right now. BMac on the other hand has the highest trade value of his career right now. Right now there isn't a team in the league who doesn't see his potential as #1/#2 SP. He's the buzz of the organization right now. Chavez & his contract are simply not worth the price of trading BMac. KW should be able to get this done (if Beane is really pressing to unload the contract) without BMac. But I don't think Beane is conceding yet in the ALW. They are 10 gms out, riding a 4 gm winning streak & are winning at home. Last night Chavez hit a game winning grand slam. I think he'll wait until after Jun to see whether he's a buyer or a seller for the 2nd half.

Do you really think the Cub pen is better w/out Hawkins? If Hendry had a clue he might be the best setup man in the NL right now. Losing a Hawkins even when you mis-used him doesn't make your team better. The Cub are 8-2 in their last 10. Just like the Rangers. Since most power rankings pick the White Sox #2 behind STL I guess we should just ignore all of that & start printing up the WS tickets for these two clubs Tonight it's Mitre vs Eaton. You pick the Cub & Mitre & I'll pick 7-1 Eaton & the Padres. The winning streak ends tonight. Looking ahead Maddux has a reasonable shot at winless May. To close out the series it's 5-0 Peavy vs Zamby. I'm picking Peavy & the Pads. So after SD the mighty Cub will still be 2 gms over .500. The WSox will be 17-18 gms over .500. If you still think the Cub could beat them in a 7 gm series you're dreaming. Rusch has pitched just as good as Wood could ever pitch & Prior is anything but a sure thing. You're only other major injury was Walker & he's back now. On the other side of the coin what would the Sox record be with a healthy Thomas & El Duque all year long? I'd say that's good for at least 3 more gms over .500 bringing the total to 20. Do you really think a healthy Prior, Wood, & Walker would put the Cub 20 gms over .500? Perhaps you are confusing being healthy with being an ace. Wood hasn't resembled an ace in a long time & Prior has never been healthy enough to determine whether he is an ace. But since your playing this game El Duque had 8 wins & 2 losses in 15 starts last year. So if we extrapolate that to 35 starts that's 18 wins & 5 losses. I'll put those numbers up against Wood or Prior's any day. So if you want to play the past performance healthy game the WSox beat the Cub there as well. Or perhaps this is really a Cub kool-aid game. Wood & Prior are better than any two pitchers on the WSox because ... well they just are damn it! :D :D

I've said it before & I'll continue to say it. BMac is going no where because your rotation is still heavily dependant on an assumed 39 yr old who is more often than not on the DL in the years he plays. BMac figures to get 6-10 starts before the season is done. In a WS contending year that is not a chip you deal.

Clogging the bases is not is only detriment. Look at the other numbers: Koney http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?statsId=5908 Thomas http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?statsId=4527 Specifically look at BB/PA, BB/SO, GIDP, GB/FB, & of course OBP. It's a night & day difference between the two. A GB/FB > 1.00 is NOT something you want to see for the slowest player on the team.

Koney was shopped in the off-season but not as aggressively as Lee. The main reason was that you had Thomas on the shelf, with Maggs & Val out the door. That's a major drop in HR production right there. Dealing Koney for any one with less HR potential was not an option. There were many ? marks going into this year that have been answered. Most notably Uribe, Pods, & Iguchi can not just play but they are good enough that when they are healthy you want them playing every game. Uribe (9), Pods(1), Iguchi(2) provide greater RON opps for the middle. The team will look to trade, sign, & retain guys for the middle that produce in RON sits. RON #'s: Chavez 02 292AB, 69R, 91RBI, .288 .371 .510 .882 Konerk 02 272AB, 66R, 89RBI, .309 .361 .489 .850 Thomas 02 247AB, 64R, 79RBI, .259 .371 .494 .865 Thomas 03 239AB, 64R, 82RBI, .326 .464 .657 1.121 Chavez 03 264AB, 74R, 81RBI, .299 .369 .511 .880 Konerk 03 216AB, 38R, 54RBI, .227 .305 .356 .661 Konerk 04 251AB, 60R, 93RBI, .303 .390 .546 .936 Chavez 04 235Ab, 69R, 59RBI, .272 .403 .447 .850 Thomas 04 111AB, 42R, 38RBI, .252 .440 .514 .954 Konerk 05 94AB, 19R, 29RBI, .202 .309 .404 .713 Chavez 05 97AB, 20R, 26RBI, .237 .296 .371 .667 Thomas 05 1AB, 1R, 1RBI, .000 .667 .000 .667 At that pace Thomas will finish with over 100R, 100RBI for the season Chavez will likely cost at most $2M more a year than Koney over the next 5 yrs. His OBP & GG D is probably worth that difference.

You guys will debate over anything. Frank was brought back early because Everett was struggling & the WSox have 7 NL games after the CLE series. The choice was bringing him back now where he can either DH or sub for DH or bring him back during the NL trip where he would only be used as a one-time PH. The choice was obvious. The hip flexor was just as likely to happen at Charlotte as it was in Chicago. It had no bearing on the situation. Was he ready to play? Yes. Did that readliness reduce his risk of injury? No. At his age & with the surgeries he's had he's a health risk. He's like a classic Ford Mustang with a rusty axle & banged up wheelbase. The risk is always there. He helped them win Mon's game & I'm sure he'll help them win a game vs CLE. That's what you wanted when you brought him up. Not to mention his presence alone on the team might help Everett break out of his slump.

The problem with Koney fans is that they don't see the writing on the wall. Because of the Drew & Sexson deals this past off-season Koney is guaranteed to get a 5 yr deal after this one. Do you really believe the WSox will commit between $45-55M for a HR hitting 1B? Why would they do this for one of the least skilled positions? Is Koney a GG? No. Not even close. So his D does not add much weight to his contract value. Thomas has a career GB/FB of 0.78. His last 3 yrs have been an avg of 0.45. Koney's career GB/FB is 1.09 & his last 3 yrs it's been a 1.05. More than double that of Thomas'. So which player in your opinion is more suited for a small ball team? The big bat less likely to hit into a double play & more likely to produce the SF. That's Thomas. So when I think of Koney's next contract it's not about a hometown discount. It's about accepting less security. A 3 yr deal with the WSox vs a 5 yr one elsewhere. Why would he do that? It makes no sense. I think both parties know this which is why there hasn't been anything said. The WSox are more likely to sign Thomas to a 3 yr extension that is packed with health related incentives than they are to sign Koney to a 5 yr one. That's just in line with the reality of what they can afford.

I agree. Thomas was all but gone for 2002. Kenny didn't want him & he made that perfectly clear to JR after 2001. Yet what happened? Thomas signed a new contract extension. On top of that the White Sox loaned him a mil for the 2002 season. How many teams have you heard loan money to their players? So now consider 2006. The offense has been one of the worst in the AL this year. If it dramatically improves when Frank is playing more often than not how do you think Ozzie will take to him? Let's put it this way. Frank has many ops left in 2005 to appear as a hero before Ozzie. Ozzie looks at Frank in that way. Kenny's attitiude towards Frank has greatly improved since that new contract was signed. There's simply no basis to believe that it is more likely the WSox cut ties with him now than there was in 2001. They worked out a deal in 2001 & they'll work out a deal for 2006. In fact I would be surprised if it's not very much in line with the last deal but with more money shifted to incentives for playing time. If the WSox feel El Duque at his age is worth $8M/2yr + $4M in incentives then they will definitely think Frank is worth a contract extension. It will be for less money than the last one. That's a given. He's a much greater health risk now than he was in 2002. In my opinion that all but cinches the deal. As much as Frank is a big ball player he's even a greater threat in small ball. He is still expected to lead the team in OBP before the season ends. He still remains one of the toughest outs in baseball. When he does make an out it's almost always a FB. (His GB/FB is one of the lowest in the league). This means even more to a team like the White Sox that needs to score runs on OUTS. As many have said Pods reaching base is like a double. With Iguchi hitting behind him the odds are favorable that Pods will reach 3B with less than 2 outs more often than not when he gets on. There is no better hitter the WSox could have than Frank Thomas in that situation. 2004 Scoring Pos, < 2 outs 38R, 32RBI, 66AB. 2003 Scoring Pos, < 2 outs 47R, 52RBI, 125AB. 2002 Scoring Pos, < 2 outs 56R, 69RBI, 153AB. Even in 2002 coming off the surgery he got it done better than most w RISP. Ozzie seems to be a stat man with his decision making. I'm sure he won't overlook this one.

It makes no sense to carry 4 LHB's on the bench. Everett is down this yr, but he has good #'s the past 3 yrs as a LHB. That makes Timo expendable. Harris has played well enough in the field & at the plate to remain on the team. Ozuna, Everett, & Widger are the only RHB's off the bench. Ozzie has proven to be a R-L manager in every way possible this year. To a fault many would say. Given that's the case Harris & Ozuna are all but guranteed spots on the bench because it gives Ozzie that R-L capability for middle IF subs. Gload & Everett give Ozzie a R-L capability for OF/1B/DH subs. Timo is expendable with Gload's return. Our bench in the 2nd 1/2 will be Harris, Ozuna, Widger, Everett, & Gload. Meaning the WSox will only carry 6 RP's. I expect a trade to shore up that bullpen.

Based on what we've seen of him in ST, ML, & ml BMac has a solid shot at being a #1/#2 pitcher in the AL. Not an ace but Garcia like quality. With his mindset there is potential for him to emerge as an ace. He has better stuff than Garland. That is too high of a price to pay for a $58/5 yr all-star, gold glove 3B who is struggling offensive with a Kendall, Chavez, Hatteberg middle. Kenny's got other chips to spend to get Chavez. El Duque has proven himself in the league as both a RP & SP. That gives the WSox the ability to make use of the SP depth (BMac) to shore up the pen. That also gives us the option of including Politte/Cotts in a trade to shore up the lineup. Beane is always in the market to get good cheap RP. But this is speculation because Anderson is a below 900 OPS AAA player. Until he can reach that plateau I don't see Beane biting.

I can't see Beane doing it right now either. Anderson AAA 183AB, 34R, 28RBI, 21W, 51K, .295A, .365O, .503S He's the key to the whole trade & I don't see Beane making this trade for anything less than a 900+ OPS mler.

3 yr #'s for pitches 1-15: El Duque 112AB, 11R, .277A, .319O, .402S Contrera 140AB, 42R, .271A, .346O, .429S Garland 381AB, 81R, .281A, .329O, .410S Freddy & Mark are obviously not options. Of the 3 I would go with El Duque first for RP duties. Garland is all but light's out in his first 15 pitches this year but how do you move an 8-2 starter to the pen? El Duque is a bend but don't break type pitcher & that's perfect for the pen. As a RP in the past 3 yrs (6IP) he was never scored upon. So he's gotten in done for the NYY's in the past in that role.

It's very possible he could produce Maggs like numbers over the next 5 yrs at the Cell. I looked at it further and his poor cell numbers are more a reflection of Buehrle & E-Lo. He had 60+ AB between them so probably most of the 46AB over the past 3 yrs came against these guys when they had their A game that night. He owns Garland so that pretty much narrows it down. From everything we know about the park it's tailor made for strong LHB's & Eric is that. What boosts his value to the White Sox is that he is a LHB. It goes w/out saying that Pods will be here for the long term as our LO guy. He should last the duration of Chavez' current contract. So this trade locks in Pods(L), Guch®, Chavez(L), followed by a strong RHB for the next 3 yrs. That's awfully hard for opposing teams to deal with CL&L. If you add Gload or another LHB at 1B in the tail of the order & AJ that gives the WSox one of the best balanced teams from both sides of the plate for years to come. 4 LHB, 5 RHB. It reduces the need to keep LHB's like Perez on the bench so this move will make the bench stronger in years to come as well. As long as it doesn't cost BMac I say do it. He's worst numbers still outperform Crede, his D definitely outperforms Crede & his potential at the Cell is Maggs like. Beane's always in mind for good relief pitching & he might eye either Politte or Cotts in this trade. Both look good & cost little. Crede, Anderson, & Politte/Cotts for Chavez. Politte's value has never been higher. This move almost certainly will generate another trade to shore up the bullpen.

Did the WSox suddenly get an infusion of cash? Eric Chavez Contract $66M/6yr (2005 $8M first yr) Why do it? Proven success. 2002 Pos-AS 38R, 51RBI, .280A, .355O, .480S 2003 Pos-AS 48R, 51RBI, .313A, .378O, .562S 2004 Pos-AS 49R, 40RBI, .286A, .403O, .507S He's 20R & 20RBI off the pace in his Pre-AS numbers. Is this because of the A's dismal lineup or is there a health concern? He's currently hitting between Kendall (.324O, .293S) & Hatteberg (.345O, .359S). In 2004 he had McLemore (.355O, .328S) & Dye (.329O, .464S). In 2003 he had Durazo (.374O, .430S) & Tejada (.336O, .472S). It goes w/out saying there's a drop-off in the talent around him in the lineup. But does it explain his (.284O, .340S) for 2005? Is he healthy? I don't know how the WSox can afford it, but if you are going to trade for him you must guarantee a high OBP guy hitting ahead of him in the lineup. Surprisingly Thomas, Iguchi, & Pods all fit that bill. Do you trade Koney (.336O, .462S, 27R, 37RBI) then to offset the money for this year? Oakland is going to throw in any cash. Chavez weak 1st half is just going to get you a lower price to pay in talent. After 2005 his cost is $58M/5 yr. Right around the first offer price to Maggs. Is Chavez capable of producing 100R, 120RBI consistently yr after yr w the White Sox? http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/spli...tting&year=2005 http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/spli...tting&year=2004 http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/spli...tting&year=2003 http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/spli...tting&year=2002 http://sports.espn.go.com/mlbhist/players/...14&type=batting He has 46AB at the Cell but 33 v Mark & 31 v Loaiza. He owns Garland so I would say it's more likely the fact he mostly matched up against Mark & E-Lo in those 3 yrs then the park itself. It should be tailor made for him with the short RF fence. If the price is Crede, Anderson, & another prospect I'm willing to do that. But if Beane is holding out for BMac forget it.

I disagree completely. First off the WSox play in the AL & the Cub plays in the NL. So to say that a perfectly healthy Cub team is better than a perfectly healthy WSox team you have to make an argument as to how good the Cub would be in the AL. The WSox rotation is a proven AL rotation. The Cub's is entirely green. Not one pitcher in the rotation has ever pitched an entire season in the AL. Based on statistical averages alone the WSox gain the advantage here because the averages are against NL pitchers having as good a success in the AL. You need look no further than The Big Unit to see the difference in the two leagues. The WSox bullpen is much better than the Cub. Health as nothing to do with it. The Cub bullpen would be eaten alive if it had to play a full season in the AL. The WSox 1-3 are better than the Cub 1-3. The Cub 4-6 are better than the WSox 4-6. The Cub 7-9 are better than the WSox 7-9. The current Cub winning streak is predicated on the starters going long. Rusch threw 122 pitches in the last win. No rotation can continuously rack up high pitch counts start after start & remain healthy. Eventually they are going to have to rely on that pen again & the losing streak will start.

Solid RP. A good team can shoulder guys struggling in the lineup at times. As long as you have a good balance of hot hitters to offset the cold ones you can keep scoring runs. But bad RP can cost you wins & pile up your losses. Assessing our RP, we have two solid guys in Hermy & Politte, then two fair guys in Marte & Cotts, but everything after that is shaky at best. I still hold out hope that Marte will figure it out & have a solid year, but I will feel much better with one more solid guy in that pen. We can overcome all other weaknesses but that one's the toughest.

The rule of thumb with RP's is not to use them more than 4IN/3 consec days. A typical IP for an RP is 15 pitches. So you're expected to get an avg of 20 pitches out of them over 3 consec days before they must be rested. Ozzie is wrecking Marte. He had a PC of 27 in his his two scoreless appearances @ LAA. At home this week he's thrown 25 pitches. He still had more left in the tank. All Ozzie did last night was further undermine Marte's confidence. Something he's been doing all year.

I've not seen his play so I can't comment on his fielding. I can only go by the numbers there. As for 2005 he's hitting .311 vs LH & .214 vs RH. But even vs RH he's still getting the hits in RON sits. He's always hit well at home & should hit much better at the Cell. My feeling on Kaz is that we've not seen his best game. How could a top fielding & hitting all-star SS in Japan be this bad? NY sours guys & playing with Iguchi could change that. http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/printart...ing-to-america/ Matsui 7-time All-Star, 3-time GG winner at SS, Iguchi 4-time All-Star, 3-time GG winner at 2B I just think if you put these two together on the same team they will bring out the best in one another. We're a better organization than the NYM.