witesoxfan

QUOTE (TaylorStSox @ Dec 19, 2013 -> 03:57 PM) I wonder what the numbers are in our park for doubles and triples. The gaps seem to play incredibly small. I actually think it's a good park for fly ball pitchers because the gaps balance out the HR's. I have no evidence to back this up; just thinking aloud. Obviously, some of it is the quality of the team, but it had the fewest amount of doubles - 213 (PetCo was next at 225, Fenway led with 348), second fewest amount of triples (Dodger Stadium had 11, USCF had 12, Camden Yards had 14), while allowing the 6th amount of home runs (179). In 2012, it was 22nd in doubles with 255 and 21st in triples with 23 while being 3rd in homers with 228. In 2011, it was 28th in doubles with 242 and 25th in triples with 19 while being 10th in homers with 166. I think there is some credence to what you are saying, but a lot of times, you can't control how far fly balls fly. USCF, compared to Dodger Stadium which is a similar sized park, tends to see balls fly out to left field instead of having the wind push it back into the stadium.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Dec 19, 2013 -> 04:27 PM) And Danks has made over twice as much money. Danks has been the better pitcher, but I'd sure like to see him pitch a lot better this year. He made the money based on what he did during his first 6 years as a starter. McCarthy was injured with shoulders and obliques and what have you until he altered his mechanics to remain healthy. There's no question who won that trade.

QUOTE (Dunt @ Dec 19, 2013 -> 04:19 PM) I think the whole youth adjustment thing is slightly overblown. Ya, you definitely plan for an adjustment period, but these guys have mostly had a taste at this point and there are plenty of examples around the majors of under 25 year old players make big impacts. Then we will have to worry about the league having made adjustments to them, but them not adjusting to the league. That's why you see sophomore slumps. Besides, guys like Beckham, Rowand, and Crede have given all of us false hope in the past after initially showing great success. You can understand why Sox fans are leery.

QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Dec 19, 2013 -> 04:17 PM) As for the pitching worries, all I'm concerned about is the 5th spot of the rotation. EJ is going to be just fine this year and I think Danks bounces back big. And the bullpen will be fine. My bold prediction for this season is that Paulino is going to end the year as the 3rd best starter.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 19, 2013 -> 03:59 PM) Leury is a guy who really could benefit from a full year in Charlotte. Unfortunately, barring a signing of a utility guy, he's almost certainly ticketed for the big league team because the bench can't work without him. Ramirez, games started, SS 2010 - 154 2011 - 154 2012 - 157 2013 - 157 In 4 years, he has not started 26 games at SS. That is 4% of the games. He needs about a game off once a month, and you don't have to worry about July due to the ASB. I think if you have someone who can just stand at SS for a game now and then - Beckham, Keppinger, Elmore, whoever - you will be fine. If Ramirez gets hurt and misses significant time, you're probably f'ed anyways.

Here is what I believe you need #1 - a strong, top 5 pitching staff, #1 through #12. They need to stay rather healthy, they need to all perform to their relative ceilings, and they need the fill-ins to perform pretty well too. If the team ERA is around 3.50-3.75, that will be fine. The biggest factors in this will be the 3-4-5 of the rotation (is Johnson ready? can Danks peform? is Paulino really healthy? what of Rienzo?), the "front" of the bullpen (can Petricka/Webb/Veal/whoever get through innings 5 and 6 without letting runs pile on? can they effectively eat innings in blow outs to prevent guys like Downs, Lindstrom, Belisario, and [closer] from having to be used?), and the closer (just who is it going to be?). #2 - a league average or better offense. Again, this is about health, but more than that, it's about guys actually performing. Unlike most, I think they can compete with a few guys underperforming, but it absolutely can't be a repeat of last year. The biggest factors here will be Abreu (is he the stud, top 5 best hitters in the world like his preceding reputation suggests, or is he more of an .800-.850 OPS kind of guy?), the young guys (can they assimilate quickly to being contributing members to a team like this, or will there be struggles and breakdowns as the year goes on?), developments in the minors (will guys who are performing get their chances to actually take the spots of struggling players? Will Ventura and Hahn have a quick hook on those guys who have been given multiple chances before?), and the production of platoon/bench players (will Konerko/Dunn be as effective as it should be? will Phegley/Flowers/Nieto/Gimenez/[insert catcher] be able to handle themselves offensively?) #3 - a good defense all around. Simply put, without going into the factors, if the defense is closer to 2012 than 2013, the team will be solid; if it's closer to 2013 than 2012, Ventura should be fired midseason, if not sooner. Assuming good defense, I can see a team like this competing: Eaton - .270/.350/.400 Ramirez - .270/.330/.370 Dunn - .240/.340/.500 (350-450 PAs); Konerko - .300/.375/.475 (125-150 PAs) Abreu - .300/.400/.500 Garcia - .280/.330/.445 Viciedo - .260/.310/.440 Beckham - .260/.320/.380 Davidson - .230/.300/.425 [catcher] - .240/.300/.375 Sale - 220 IP, 3.00 ERA Quintana - 210 IP, 3.25 ERA Johnson - 180 IP, 3.75 ERA Danks - 200 IP, 4.00 ERA Paulino/whoever - 180 IP, 4.00 ERA bullpen ERA - 3.00 I don't think any of that is unreasonable, and I think some guys can improve on those numbers, but I don't think all of the guys reaching those numbers is likely at all.

QUOTE (fathom @ Dec 19, 2013 -> 03:19 PM) Any objections that these are the 8 core players going forward in the Sox organization? Abreu A. Garcia Eaton Davidson Semien Sale Quintana E. Johnson None whatsoever. There are a few guys who I think can become good and valuable players - the one I pretty much stand alone on that I think can become a very valuable player is Leury Garcia. I would like him to show better patience at the plate while making more contact (no problem, right?), but I like the idea of good defensive shortstops who are fast. I think you can find really cheap, undervalued players there.

QUOTE (MEANS @ Dec 19, 2013 -> 03:29 PM) Didn't the Pirates also use this theory last year? Somewhat with their starters? I know they employed a lot of defensive positioning as well. They believe in ground ball pitchers quite a bit, but yes, that's exactly what I had in mind.

I also think this was something Williams got away from in previous years, instead going for big names, big stuff, and sexy strikeout numbers. That wasn't all bad - Crain gave the Sox 2 and a half great years - but Matt Thornton was a gas can by the end and Jake Peavy gave the Sox 1 good year out of 4. Those ground ball guys, especially if they can strike a fair number of people out, should improve the quality and consistency of the pitching staff. Now, pay more attention and increase the number of infield shifts you use, and we'll really be cooking with peanut oil.

QUOTE (Stan Bahnsen @ Dec 19, 2013 -> 02:50 PM) I'm guessing this our last pitching expenditure for the offseason, barring a possible coming-off-injury cheapie flyer on a starter. But who knows? O'Flaherty is still out there, I think, unless I missed something. I don't want to give Crazy Boone Logan Money to anyone, though! The Sox aren't afraid to give out those sorts of contracts, but they do so sparingly and to a certain type of pitcher. They have never really believed in the idea of a LOOGY, though they have used relievers in that situation at times. There is also no one who is of the quality that would require that type of contract at the moment either. I would not worry about that one bit.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Dec 19, 2013 -> 02:42 PM) Yea, I always thought that Kenny gave more than he got. The Swisher trade to Oakland had one prospect too many; should we really have had to throw in Holmberg to get Jackson who was being salary dumped? We gave Jackson to Toronto, which enabled them to get the CF they wanted. On the other hand, they were generous with us when we dumped Frasor back on them. So maybe they do this so that avenues for trades are always open. So far, I think all of Hahn's trades have been within a close range of fair value on both sides of the exchange...which is how it should be. Williams absolutely "trade-raped" Gillick and the Phillies in the Freddy deal, so later that summer, when the Sox were awful and the Phillies contending, Williams gave them Iguchi for a bone.

QUOTE (Waygodai @ Dec 19, 2013 -> 02:33 PM) that’s what I’ve been trying to say haha. No way 2013 was “99 loss” bad. I mean, it was AND it wasn’t...…if that makes any sense. Baseball can be weird like that: seasonal outliers triggering cascading/down-spiraling effect. Sox management seems to agree with us optimists. Good. Well they agree, but they are acknowledging that the team was deeply flawed. There is no other reason why they'd export 5-8 significant players with a few other heads on the chopping block. I mean, we're talking about Dunn, De Aza, Viciedo, Beckham, Keppinger, Gillaspie, Flowers, Phegley, Ramirez, and (John)Danks that people have suggested getting rid of and finding an upgrade on at one time or another. That's almost the remainder of the roster. The Sox realize that they can be competitive next year, but that they needed to get young and re-develop or, rather, re-establish the foundation of the team. If they are anything more than a .500 team - I will be the first to acknowledge it is very possible - I will be pleasantly surprised. Basically, I handicap there odds of certain milestones as such: 100+ wins: 1% 95-99 wins: 3% 90-94 wins: 6% 85-89 wins: 10% 80-84 wins: 10% 75-79 wins: 25% 70-74 wins: 25% 65-69 wins: 15% 60-64 wins: 4.5%

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Dec 19, 2013 -> 02:25 PM) Is that a good thing considering how awful the defense was last season? I think much of that was incredibly fluky, and the team should still be solid defensively, but the point behind having a lot of ground ball pitchers is that ground balls do not do a lot of damage, even though, of the 3 batted balls, they provide the second highest average (line drives > ground balls > fly balls).

QUOTE (Stan Bahnsen @ Dec 19, 2013 -> 02:14 PM) Nah, it's nice catch Wite, for me. Not insignificant. Fly ballers will always be somewhat dicey in our park. Oh, I agree, but I was getting kind of long winded and I like making fun of myself. FWIW, here are the numbers of other candidates for the bullpen and pitching staff in general (and I wouldn't even put these down, except that ground ball rates stabilize quickly, so these are going to be pretty indicative of the type of pitcher they are) Webb - 56.3%, 11.1 IP Petricka - 62.9%, 19.1 IP Veal - 52.6%, 29.1 IP (and 47.1% over 58.2 career IP) Leesman - 57.4%, 15.1 IP Rienzo - 47.8%, 56 IP Johnson - 46.4%, 27.2 IP

QUOTE (Harry Chappas @ Dec 19, 2013 -> 01:55 PM) If the reality is true than Theo is losing friends quickly. I think a good quality of a GM is to treat other GM's fairly and not waste everyone's time trying to out-GM the other guy. Hahn got less than Santiago but more for Reed thus he got what he should have. I think that goes along way in dealing with other GM's. I think that's been the biggest problem of Theo and Hoyer with the Cubs. The only time they will make a move is when they feel they are fleecing the other team or getting a great deal. Occasionally, you have to throw a bone to other GMs...consider it an investment. People say "the Sox could have gotten more for Santiago" but, first of all, maybe they couldn't. Second of all, maybe the DBacks felt they could have gotten more out of Davidson too. It's certainly possible they had discussed that move previously and that was why the Sox threw in Brandon Jacobs too. The politics and networking of GMing, in my mind, is just as vital to being successful as acquiring the talent in the first place. You can't have one without the other. I think Theo is going to fail with the Cubs, even if their system is so good right now.

Yes, sorry, Justin. I was even trying to think of the good one and got them confused.

As opposed to the high-K, high velocity types, I feel that Hahn and the front office have shifted their focus towards finding groundball pitchers, regardless of swing and miss stuff and velocity (though both are still preferred). The Sox have added Belisario and Downs in the past month. Here are their numbers Belisario (missed 2011) 2010 - 61.3% GB 2012 - 64.5% GB 2013 - 61.4% GB Downs 2011 - 63% 2012 - 60.4% 2013 - 64.3% This is in addition to Lindstrom's career 1.55 GO/AO and 50.7% GB in 2012 and 55.6% GB in 2013. Nate Jones was at 45.5% in 2012 and 50.5% in 2013. On the flip side are the two pitchers the Sox have traded, Santiago and Reed. Santiago was at 38.2% in 2012 and 36.4% in 2013, while Reed was at 32.9% in 2012 and 33% in 2013. Does this give any indication to you on who they could inquire on next? Who still may be available? What say you in general? Is it "wite, shut the hell up!"?

QUOTE (Athomeboy_2000 @ Dec 19, 2013 -> 11:57 AM) He fulfills the Rooney Rule. They can now interview anyone they want. Well they could interview anyone they wanted anyways, but now they can hire anybody they want. I still think the Rooney rule is one of the worst rules in all of sports.

QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Dec 19, 2013 -> 01:38 PM) Because it would be mean to outright someone off the 40 right before Christmas? Have to file the paperwork and have it reviewed and approved by the league office and the player/agent. Considering there is literally nothing going on, it's certainly plausible that they take the entire week off.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Dec 19, 2013 -> 01:03 PM) I hope you aren't blasting Reed. If everybody on our team performed as well as he did we'd have had a good season. I will bet you anything our closer gives up more than six home runs this season IF he pitches in as many games as Reed. It's certainly possible, but not likely. At the end of the day, he's a good reliever and nothing more.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Dec 19, 2013 -> 01:34 PM) I would support exploring a trade for him, if the Cubs priced him for what he is: a number 3 starter. Talks ended with Atlanta when they asked for BJ Upton or Jason Heyward. They requested two of the best pitching prospects in the game from Toronto in Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez. They are treating him like he is one of the best pitchers in the game. The Sox probably don't even have the requisite prospects, unless you want to give up, say, Erik Johnson, Marcus Semien, Adam Eaton, and Daniel Webb.

QUOTE (jphat007 @ Dec 19, 2013 -> 01:14 PM) Woah Nate Jones numbers from 12-13 are weird. This year he had 6 less walks, 2 more hits in 6.1 more innings with an ERA almost 2 runs higher. I wonder if he was really lucky in 12 or really unlucky in 13. I wonder if we'll see right in the middle this year. He went through a spell in late April and early May where he didn't have good command of his pitches and he was either walking everybody or giving up hits. He got that figured out and settled down. He was incredibly unlucky in 2013.

If that is the case, I sure hope they improve by more than 20 games. .500 kind of blows

Yeah, see, now that is something I can get behind Well, I can get behind Ginger Zee too, but you know what I mean

QUOTE (Andy the Clown @ Dec 19, 2013 -> 11:19 AM) I see what your saying, but there's always the chance of Veal turning it around and being useful, even if it is a remote chance. OTOH, Morel will never be useful for anything... I have no idea why you brought up Donnie Veal, but while I agree that there is virtually no chance that Brent Morel turns into anything useful, I think he has a better chance than Duente Heath does.