whitesox61382

Like I said before guys who make it after 26 are the exception and not the norm. If you read carefully I also say something along the lines of making the majors for the 1st time after 26 and become a solid consistant player. Fewer then 400 career AB's at the major league level doesn't make a player a proven major league hittter. If he gets past 1000 or the equivalent of about 2 full seasons worth of AB's and is putting up solid numbers, than you can file him in the sucessful after 26 group. There are a few others as well that you could put in the sucessful 26+ group(I think you can classify Wunsch into that group), but the point is that it is rare, and for each guy 26+ that becomes a solid major leaguer there are hundreds of guys like Mottola that never make it. Since the percentage of guys that do become solid major leaguers after 26 is so low I don't include them as prospects. Its like the lottery your chances are next to none, but it could still happen. Call me a pessismist, but I think you need to draw guidelines and I think a fair guideline is no one over 26 should be considered a prospect. I also don't think that Brumbaugh will ever be a consistant major leaguer. Good numbers doesn't always doesn't always translate into major league sucess. Its as much, maybe even more, important to have potential/raw tools.

Here is my top 50, which is a hard list to come up with. I followed 2 guidelines to help draw lines. 1) Is that no player over 25 should be considered a prospect. 2) That anyone 25 or under and with fewer than 300 AB's or 100 IP's in the majors is eligible. I believe the rule for rookies is 200 AB's and 50 IP's, but I added a little to include 1 or 2 more players. I feel that guys 25 or under with less then a full year in the majors should be considered more of a prospect then a 28 year old career minor leaguer that is putting up good numbers but will probably never make the majors. I rate guys that have been in the majors pretty high considering that the main goal of a prospect is to make the majors and develop into a solid player, and they have accomplished that and half of the guys on this list will probably never make the majors, so the guys with major league experience should be rated higher in most cases. I don't rate guys that only have 1 year of minor league experience that high, because at this point it is hard to make assumptions based on 1 year in rookie ball(almostly solely based on potential at this point) and I am a huge fan of consistancy over a couple of years for prospects. With that said let the list begin: 50) McCarthy 19 (rookie) RHP 49) Bittner 22 (low A) RHP 48) Hummel 22 (low A) RHP 47) Holt 24 (high A) RF/LF 46) Varela 22 (low A) 3B 45) An 22 (high A) LHP 44) Spidale 21 (high A) CF 43) Brice 21 (low A) RF/LF 42) Lopez 19 (rookie) RHP 41) Reyes 21 (AA) SS 40) Bullard 23 (AA) LHP 39) Deininger 21 (low A) RHP 38) Haigwood 19 (rookie) LHP 37) Rodriguez 18 (rookie) LHP 36) Lopez 19 (low A) 2B 35) Stumm 22 (high A) RHP 34) Allen 23 (high A) RHP 33) Fransisco 23 (high A) RHP 32) Malone 22 (AA) LHP 31) Majewski 23 (AAA) RHP 30) Castro 21 (low A) RHP 29) Morse 21 (high A) SS 28) LaMura 22 (low A) LHP 27) Kolhmeier 25 (AAA) RHP 26) Ulacia 22 (AA) LHP 25) Rupe 20 (low A) RHP 24) Meaux 24 (high A) LHP 23) Schnurstein 18 (rookie) 3B 22) West 22 (AA) RHP 21) Phillips 21 (low A) LHP 20) Gonzalez 21 (low A) SS 19) Yan 22 (high A) 2B 18) Pacheco 24 (AA) RHP 17) Rogowski 22 (high A) 1B 16) Munoz 20 (AAA) LHP 15) Diaz 22 (AAA) RHP 14) Hummel 24 (AAA) 2B/3B 13) Sanders 23 (majors) LHP 12) Stewart 24 (AAA) LHP 11) Webster 20 (low A) CF 10) Ginter 25 (AAA) RHP 9) Harris 24 (majors) 2B/CF 8) Wing 21 (high A) LHP 7) Cotts 23 (AA) LHP 6) Ring 22 (AA) LHP 5) Reed 21 (high A) CF 4) Rauch 24 (AAA) RHP 3) Olivo 24 (majors) C 2) Borchard 24 (majors) CF/RF 1) Honel 20 (high A) RHP Once you get past the top 20 it becomes a crapshoot. There are guys that I ranked around 48th that could arguable be ranked 22nd and vise-versa. I think this is an accurate ranking though. You will never see half of these guys in the majors though. You can argue or disagree with my list, but this is my opinion based on the prospects tools, their numbers, their age(and level they are at for their age), consistancy between levels, and scouting reports.

"Then explain to me why Baseball America, basically the definitive source on anything minor league baseball, has included Jose Contreras, Hideki Matsui, Brandon Donnelly, etc." That is questionable. Other minor league sources wouldn't consider them prospects. Contreras and Matsui are poor examples because they are straight to the majors. Find me a player that is 28 and has spent 10 years in the minors that BA calls a prospect? "Cliff Brumbaugh at 29 with good numbers at AAA." If you think this guy is going to ever be an everyday major leaguer, than you are solely mistaken and need to learn minor league prospects 101. Not only does age matter, but the level they are at. For example I follow this rule. If a player is over 25 at AAA, over 24 at AA, over 23 at high A, over 22 at low A, over 21 at high rookie ball, or 20 at low rookie ball then they are to old for that level and their numbers should be adjusted. The point is that Brumbaugh putting up good numbers and Nunez(although he is pretty old and a bad example since he is also over 25) putting up bad numbers have about the same chance of becoming everyday major leaguers. None. "You can't discount people who are older than 25 as non-prospects, a bunch of major-leaguers never really "made it" until they were in their upper 20's. Should we just completely ignore them? Asinine." Give me a list of major leaguer players that didn't step foot into a major league park without paying until they were 26 or older AND who has put up solid consistant numbers for a couple of years. Now compare that to the percentage of those that made it before 26 and are sucessful. You will find that players making it after 26 are the exception not the norm and they are very few if any. That is the point and you are not understanding it for some reason. "Stats don't lie, your eyes do" You are going to get a lot of people who disagree with you on this. Stats don't tell the whole story and yes the can be deceiving. Check some of the top players in the majors minor league stats and you will see that a good amount of them didn't put up impressive numbers in the minors. For example, Bagwell. He hit no more than 4 HR's in a season if I am not mistake off the top of my head, yet is one of the premier power hitter in the game. Another example is Johnson. He couldn't hit the ocean if he was standing on the beach in the minors(terrible walks numbers), yet he always had a ton of POTENTIAL/TOOLS and developed into one of the most dominating lefties every to play the game. I will leave it to you to look at some of the other top players, but you will find similar stuff. A good amount of the top players in the majors struggled some in the minors. It goes the other way too. Have you ever heard of Chad Mattola? He was in the Sox organization for a while. He was an AS at AAA, lead different levels in stats like RBI's, and has always put up good numbers in the minors, yet at 31 is still looking for someone to give him a chance in the majors. There are TONS of guys just like him that put up good numbers in the minors year in and year out, but never even make it to the majors. They are called AAAA players or career minor leaguers. But you are right numbers don't lie(sarcasm). "I don't care about what upside Player A has, or how many tools he has. Show me Player A's stats, that's all I need to see to judge." That is why you are not a scout or expert when it comes to prospects. See above paragraph on how numbers can be deceiving and how potential/tools are the reason some of the top players in the majors today developed even though they didn't put up good numbers in the minors. You have a lot to learn about prospects if numbers are the only thing you use to make judgements. No knowledgible scout on the minors uses only stats to rate prospects. "Aaron Miles and Ruddy Yan have blown by Hummel with ease, and I stcik by putting Hummel at 32. He's not going to play for the Sox over Miles, and maybe Yan if he pans out." You are in for a rude awakening if you think Miles and Yan have blown past Hummel. Yan is in A ball!!! Miles isn't a better prospect then Hummel. Numbers can be deceiving. I mean Harris was hitting .420, but what is his career major league average? You right though numbers don't lie. Maybe they have summer school to learn about how to rate prospects that you can attend? Miles has NO plate disipline whats so ever. Miles has made up ground on Hummel, but there is no way to say either way which is ahead of the other. I feel that Hummel is ahead because he has better plate disipline, which usually translates into a better hitter at the major league level. "Rogowski does not deserve to be in the 15-20 range with the stats he's putting up right now. His power numbers are shoddy, and the only thing he really has going for him is his K:BB ratio and OBP. He's repeating High-A ball, I expect more out of him." You realize that you are making assumptions based on 2 months worth of stats? I am sorry, but that sample size is way to small to make assumptions alone. You are blind and don't know much about prospects if you think walks are the only thing he has going fo him. What about the double digit stolen bases he is on pace for? Or the exceptional defense? Or the fact that he has started to heat up this past week? Once again it might only be speculation on my behalf, but I think his injury still might have an effect on him, especially a wrist injury that severly affects a persons swing. He just turned 22, so he is at the level he should be at for his age and the fact that he spent less then half a year there means that he should be back at high A ball(especially since he was still trying to recover from his injury in 2002). The fact is that in 2001 when he posted his great numbers at low A ball he was one of the younger prospects at that level, which makes his numbers even more impressive. "Again, your guidelines, to put it nicely, are s***. The MLB cutoff for rookies is the following: no age, 50 IP, I believe 200 ABs, and a certain amount of games. You're more than welcome to throw Willie Harris on your prospect list, it's just dumb as all hell to do so." And I along with most scouts and experts think your guidelines are s***, so we are even. I beleive most so-called experts would agree with my guidelines though. The fact that you base your ranking almost solely on stats shows that you know almost nothing about prospects or the minors. Like I said you need to go to summer school prospects 101. Since you want to list 50 prospects, which I think is way to much to begin with, I moved up the AB's by 100 and the innings by 50. Wow that is a huge difference that might include 1 or 2 extra players. Let me kiss your feet all knowledgible one, because you know everything about prospects and anyone who disagrees with you is wrong(that makes a lot of people who are getting paid to scout and make analysis wrong, but you are the second coming of God on the issue). The point is that you need guidelines and you haven't made any. "Also, I never compared Reyes to Jeter. Jason might have, but I wouldn't compared Reyes to Jeter. Jeter, top SS in the game, give me a break. He's an overrated singles hitter." I don't know who it was, but whoever did the analysis on Reyes compared him to Jeter. That and a couple of other analysis that were way off made me come to the conclusion that you guys were no more then fans putting together a list of prospects that you really know little about. You rate Hummel 32nd, while all the experts have him in the top 20. Lets see experts that get paid to do what they do who have probably seen him play in person or a bunch of guys that thought Reyes was the second coming of Jeter? Which is more credible? You don't have to agree with me, but don't pretend your opinions are facts or that you know more then the REAL scouts. I will say it again that you do a decent job and put some good work into the list, but you guys are the same as me, a fan that follows the minors. That makes none of us experts on the matter. However, cerbaho-WG, if you are actually interested in learn what real scouts look for in prospects I will give you the number to my uncle Mr. Levya who is one of the heads of foreign scouting for the Sox. We often talk about prospects and players that the Sox might draft/sign and some of the things that he looks for. If you told him that you rate prospects solely on stats or that you don't think age matters he would probably laugh in your face(not to be mean though). I am serious on this though. He is a real nice guy and loves just shooting the s*** about the Sox. He will give you a better understanding of how to judge prospects, so you and you buddies can come up with a more educated analysis and list.

Most scouts would disagree with you on the idea that a player over 25 is a prospect. I subscribe to many different propsect reports and they always say things like, although this 27 year old is having a good year at AAA he is too old to be considered a prospect. You see a ton of stuff like that. I do agree with the scouts and think that you need to make a cutoff. In my mind a prospect is unproven potential, but after 25 that potential begins to run dry, especially if you haven't stepped foot onto a major league field. Look at the last 10 years of baseball and tell me what percentage of players that make it to the majors for the first time after 25 become solid major leaguers? Answer, as close to 0% without hitting it. So I believe that players over 25 shouldn't be considered prospects because the percentage that become solid major leaguers are so small that you have a better shot at winning the lottery. In regards to Bullard, the reason that he hasn't fallen of is because he has never put up good numbers to begin with. Check his stats. You really can't fall off when the guy has never posted an ERA below 3. Answer me this? Which 2 of the 3 have a better shot at the majors and more importantly becoming solid major leaguers? Answer Rogowski and Hummel. If you don't believe me ask any minor league expert of scout. Pose the same question to Sickle on ESPN and I guarantee you that he will say Rogowski and Hummel. Why? Because they are simply better prospects with more potential. In the end the only thing that matters is what they do at the major league level, so why have a guy with less of a chance to make the majors ranked ahead of prospects with a better shot. In regards to Hummel, he was ranked in the top 10 by ESPN coming into the season for Sox prospects. Has he done anything to make him drop that much? I guess his .280+ average, solid gap power numbers, solid plate disipline, 6-6 in SB, and solid D from what I hear is enough to drop him 20+ spots. With all due respect to the people who put together this list, I have a little more respect for the experts that put together the ESPN list and the people at Baseball America and other minor league scouting reports, which all believe that at the very least he is one of the Sox top 15 prospects. Having him as high as 32 is ridiculous. In regards to Rogowski, he had a great year in 2001 in I remember correctly. These are just estimates off the top of my head because I am to lazy to find his 01' numbers, but I think he hit in the .280-.290 range, with 15-20 HR's, 70-80 RBI's, 15-20ish SB, a high number of walks and almost a 1:1 BB:SO ratio. He was hurt for most of the 2002 season and when he came back reports said that he wasn't 100% so I think you have to kind of throw out his 2002 numbers. He got off to a slow start this year, possible still from his injury in 2001, but has been pretty hot of late and will probably see his numbers go up. The one thing that remains consistant with him is his plate disipline, which I am a huge fan of in a young player. Its usually a good sign that they will continue to hit at the upper minors and into the majors(the same can be said with Hummel and is one of the reason that I am one of the biggest Reed fans). Rogowski should probably be in the 15-20 range in the ranking. I know that I am being a little harsh, but these are just my opinions. I follow the minors very closely and subscribe to multiple minor league reports that I generally follow when it comes to judging prospects. That in no why means that my opinions are right. I do appreciate the work that you guys put into this ranking. For the most part it is accurate. I will come up with my own 1-50 ranking just to compare. I will use my own guidelines, ie no one over the age of 25 and anyone with fewer than 100 IP or 300 AB's at the major league level is eligible Just for fun. Whatever happened the Reyes is similar to Jeter comparison that you guys used last year? Sorry, I just found it rather funny that you compared a 5'6 SS who will probably be a utility infielder at the best to one of the top SS in the game.

Once again I don't think players over 25 should be considered prospects. I know that it has to be hard to find 50 guys to make a list from, thats usually why most prospect rankings only go up to 10. I think you should include guys that have fewer then 100 IP or 300 AB's at the major league level. That would give you a few more players and since they haven't played a full season in the majors I think they can be considered prospects. I think Rogowski is to low. This kid doesn't do one thing great, but he does a lot of things good. To begin with he is a very good athlete for a 1st baseman(unlike Konerko). He has shown the ability to hit for average. He has solid power potential. He has very good plate disipline for a youngster. He has very good speed, espeically for a 1st baseman. And he is very good defensively. I think of a young Doug Minetkiewitz with a little more power potential and speed when I think of Rogowski. Could you not find his 2001 stats? If I am not mistaken that was his best year. He unfortunately was injuried for a good part of last year and got off to a slow start this year, but has gotten hot of late. Still I think he should at the very least be in the top 30, if not the top 20. I follow the minors very closely and I can't think of 20 guys that I would have ahead of him. I also think that Hummel is to low as well. Like Rogowski I think that he belongs in the top 30, if not the top 20. He has a very good shot at making the roster next year, and I am willing to bet that a decent amount of the prospects that you have rated ahead of him will never reach the majors for an extended period of time. When you consider that you can see why he should be a little higher rated. This is a guy that has been consistantly in/around the top 10 when ESPN and other ranking systems come out. He was a 2nd round pick, so a lot has been expected of him, and for the most part he has put up pretty solid numbers in the minors. I think Bullard is rated to high. The guy has never put up impressive numbers at any level and his stuff isn't that good. At 23 the clock is ticking and he has yet to put up a solid year in the upper minors. He will probably never be a major league pitcher and there is no reason why he should be rated ahead of guys like Rogowski and Hummel. The rest of the prospects on your list appear to be ranked right where I would have them. Just because I disagree with you on a couple of rankings doesn't make my opinions right, so don't take them to harshly. Nice job and good luck with the rest of the list.

Refering to the poster that brought up Reyes, he is an interesting offensive prospect. He has always seemed to hit for power where ever he has played. His lack of plate disipline could hurt him in the upper minors. He will never get recognition as a top prospect(unless he has a breakout year), but is a guy to keep an eye on in the upper minors. The Abreu idea is extremely interesting. I would much rather have Abreu than Drew. Talk about impressive consistancy, the guy has put up the following numbers the last 4 years .289+/20+/89+ 35+ 2B 100+ BB 25+ SB .900+ OPS plus he has a very good arm and is a solid corner outfielder defensively. He might be the most underrated offensive player in baseball(in a catogory with Giles and Maggs). These are the type of players that the Sox need to add. Guys that do 4 or 5 of the tools average or better and Abreu certainly does that. Philly is looking for pitching help and has the flexibility to add payroll, although Abreu makes a good amount and would offset most of the salary added. I know that Philly was interested in possible adding Shilling later in the year if the D-Backs were out of the race, so I assume that they want another top of the rotation starter. I would assume that they would be one of the teams interested in Colon, especially if they can't land Shilling. They also need a better closer then Mesa, so Koch would probably interest them. The question is would Philly be will to give up a key piece offensively(a strength for them) to add pitching help for the stretch run(a weakness for them)? I think a Koch and Colon for Abreu and Philly's top pitching prospect in the minors(I would love to see the Sox get their hands on Myers, but it isn't going to happen) is a fair deal. Since Colon is a FA after this season his value might be a little less, so I think giving up 2 quality players(1 a FA) for 1 quality player and a top prospect is a pretty fair deal. I am pretty sure that Abreu isn't a FA next year. I think the Sox could do this deal because Colon is likely gone after this season anyways. The Sox have an extremely deep minor league system when it comes to relievers, so they can afford to trade Koch(and even a guy like Wunsch for that matter) and move Marte to the closer role. I would love to see Abreu in a Sox unifrom playing LF(with Lee moving to DH/1B if the Sox can move either/both Konerko and Thomas). The only question is will they be willing to give up Abreu? Some random questions: How does the compensation draft picks work? Is Nevin suppose to come back sometime this year or is he done for the season?

Are you talking about the singer D'Angelo, because the D'Angelo that I have seen playing for the Sox is certainly above average and a perfect fit for the leadoff spot. Not only has he been the most consistant offensive player for the season, but he does everything average or better for a 2nd baseman except play D. A good #2 hitter is needed, but if Reed keeps developing in the minors he would fit perfectly in the #2 hole.

Last time a checked Jimenez was doing a very good job as a leadoff hitter. He does everything you want from a leadoff guy. He works the count(you see a lot of 4,5,6+ pitch AB's with him), he draws walks, he is hitting for a good average(this plus his walks equals above average OBP), he puts the ball into play(doesn't strikeout much), handles the bat well(ie can bunt ect.), and has good speed(JM hasn't given the green light to run much but he has 15+ SB potential). Tell me again why you think the Sox need to go after a leadoff hitter? Maybe a #2 hitter, although Reed down in the minors looks like he will be a perfect #2 hitter if he continues to develop. The Sox problem is the lack of consistant offensive from the middle of the order. Jimenez has probably been the Sox most consistant offensive player. I think the Sox problems are else where.

You can always use more pitching prospects and take that to the bank. The Sox may have a lot of pitching prospects, but they don't have a lot of top/front of the rotation pitching prospects. Cotts, Rauch, and Honel are really the only guys that have front of the rotation potential, but from all of the scouting reports and minor league reports that I have read none of these guys have lights out stuff. They have good enough stuff that if they learn how to pitch they can become solid front of the rotation starters, but their stuff alone wont care them. You point at the lack of position prospects, and yes there are some weaknesses in the minors, but the same could be said with the pitching(at least the starters). Also keep in mind that a majority of the major league positions are currently being held by guys under 28(C, 1B, 2B, 3B, LF, CF, and RF). The Sox on the other hand have 2/5ths of the current rotation that could be gone by the start of next season, and have failed to develop any young pitchers that have proven to be consistant middle of the rotation starters at the least. So yes pitching prospects are needed and are always welcomed even if you have a lot of depth at that position. I hate to say this, but look at the Cubs, they are getting by with great starting pitching alone. Look at the majority of playoff teams and you will see they have one consistant simialrity, good pitching. Why did the Tribe never win the WS with their great teams in the 90's? Not enough pitching. The Sox have had a great offense the past couple of years and where has it gotten them? Texas and Cinncinati have similar problem. Great offenses and little pitching. Pitching is the sole reason that the A's compete every year although they are straped by financial limitations. Even the oldest saying in the book is pitching wins championships. Can you honestly look me in the eye and say that you think the Sox pitching is some of the best in the league and has no room for improvement, especially if they lose Colon and Loaiza before the start of next year? Didn't think so. The Sox should also look into getting catching, 1B, SS, and 3B prospects because they are weak at those positions in the minors, but top pitching prospects are always welcomed.

I am a huge fan of Loaiza with the way that he has pitched so far, but just like a stock you want to sell high and I don't think Loaiza's value could get any higher then what it is right now. I think it is inevitable that his numbers will fall some as the season goes on. Not even the best pitchers in the game can keep up an ERA under 2. The question is how much will it fall off. Will he be able to maintain a solid ERA in the 3's or is he going to revert back to his old ways with an ERA in the high 4's? So I think in the near future is a perfect time to trade him and get the most value for him. I woundn't be upset if the Sox lost Wunsch. One thing the Sox seem to have a lot of in the minors is solid lefty relievers, so trading Wunsch is doable and might net something good in return seeing as how good lefty relievers are like gold. Rowand is heading for a career as a 4th outfielder. I think his injury this offseason might affect him for the rest of his career. With that said I don't think Anaheim will give up that much for Loaiza, Wunsch, and Rowand. I am sure that they are aware that Loaiza might slip a little as the season goes on and giving up 3 top prospects for a career bottom of the rotation starter(although it appears that he is taking a step in the right direction), a solid lefty reliever, and a 4th outfielder seems like a little much. I do think Anaheim is a team that would be interested in Loaiza, Wunsch, and Rowand, especially considering that all are cheap. I would take 2 of the 3 purposed prospects and be happy. For example Allmazega and Santana is something that Anaheim will probably do. The Sox get their SS of the future and a very talented young pitcher(I love the fact that he is only 19 and could be promoted to AA). Jenks has great stuff but his future is probably in the pen as a closer, so I think Santana has a little more value(I am also a fan of good control in prospects as well). This is a deal that I would do, maybe even have Anaheim throw in another decent but not great prospect. That seems like a fair deal that helps both teams. Who would have thought that Loaiza would help the Sox this much and possible land them 2 or 3 solid prospects? Nice pick up KW. I would love to see the Sox keep Colon and sign him long term. Quality front of the rotation starters that eat innings and save your bullpen are rare. With that said if the Sox have no intention of resigning him, than the you may as well trade him and get a couple of solid prospects back in return. How does the draft pick compensation stuff work? I like Gordon and think he will be a key set up man from the right side if the Sox are going to make a run. However, if the Sox are out of contention, than he is a perfect guy to trade at 35 and signed to a 1 year deal. I think the Giants would be more then interested in Colon and Gordon to make a stretch run. The question is whether they want to add that much payroll. I don't think you are going to get 2 out of the Giants big 3 pitching prospects(Williams and Bonser) and possible the 3rd(Foppert). I think the Sox would be lucky to get 1 of the big 3 and 2 other decent prospects for Colon and Gordon. There will be some good interest in Colon at the deadline as teams look to add quality front of the rotations starters at the deadline. I think the Sox should be able to get the equivalent of what they gave up to get Colon in return as far as talent is related. I just dont think the Giants will give up 2 or more of their top pitching prospects, especially if they don't feel like they have a good shot of resigning Colon. I would love to get rid of Valentin and get something in return. I think you will have to package him with a good player like Koch to get something of value in return. I don't know if the Cardinals would give up Drew for Valentin and Koch even though they have a need for a closer and middle infielder with Izzy and Vina hurt. The Cardinals would be dealing from their strength(offense) and getting some needs so they might be interested. That would be a very good trade for the Sox if it went through. I don't understand the lovefest that Sox fans have for Drew though? On the ESPN board many Sox fans mentioned Drew as someone they wanted to trade for. He has good potential, but hasn't reached that potential and has had some injury problems as well. Still I think it would be a good trade for the Sox. Getting Nevin for Konerko and another player is interesting. I really think the Sox need to get rid of Konerko. He is one dimensional, and by that I mean he does nothing else average or better besides hit for average and power. When he isn't doing either he really hurts this team and these are the type of players that the Sox need to get rid of. They need players with more tools so if they aren't hitting well they can do other things to help this team(ie draw walks, steal bases, or play exceptional defense). I think the Sox should wait until Konerko heats up a little before trading him so his value is a little higher. What is the story with Nevin? Is he suppose to be back any time this season? He has developed into a really solid hitter and I like the idea of possible getting him. I think it would take at least Konerko and another good prospect to get him though. I wish the Sox could somehow get out of Thomas's contract. He just isn't the same player that he use to be and at 35 isn't a key part to the future. I love what he has done for this organization, but you have to know when to cut ties and move on. I like the general idea of your trades if they went through. The Sox would really stock pile some top pitching prospects, and I am a firm believer that you can never have enough pitching. The outfield D still scares me with none of them being above average at their position. They aren't going to cover much ground either. I would love to see the Sox get a true CF like Beltran(although I doubt it will have for financial reasons). Still some solid ideas and a lot of good work and research put into the article. Lets hope the Sox can rebound and go on a winning streak or start to trade veterans for prospects. I still think there is a solid young core to build around and the Sox can retool more than rebuild. I think the Sox can add by substracting deadweight/one dimension players like Thomas, Valentin, and Konerko. I also think they need to release White ASAP and call up Ginter(who has been very hot at AAA over the past couple of weeks).

I go to the U of A and have seen Brain Anderson play a couple of times. He is really a toolsy type of guy. A guy with great athletic ability. It would be an interesting pick, although I don't know if he is 1st round material from what I have seen of him. The guy that really impressed me on the U of A team was Van Houten. I was sitting next to his dad at one of the games that I went to and it helped that he was bragging about everything his son did. Then again at the time he was leading the Pac 10 in hitting. He doesn't have the raw talent that Anderson has or the physical gifts, but he is just a hard nosed player with an incredible work ethic. His dad video tapes every AB he has and he said that he studies that video every day looking for ways to improve himself. Its good to see that my fellow U of A athletes are getting attention though.

Agreed. I presonally feel that we should sign Colon to a 5 year deal, with an option for the 6th....5-years, 60 mill seems about right in my book....with the option being worth $14-$16 mill. Also, if we look to just retool(because rebuilding, IMO, is not necessary....I personally believe we could be an 85-win team as early as next year, and competing heavily as early as 2005), then there is no point in trading for Beltran(though signing Cruz in the offseason would make this team look so much better), especially if we have to give up Jimenez, Hummel, and Reed....I don't mind Jimenez and Hummel as much....but Reed alone is too damn much. Also...if we can find someone to take Konerko....then I'm fine with keeping Thomas. One or the other has to go...and at this point, you gotta figure that, even though he is way overpaid, Konerko has more value. I'm still for trading him to Baltimore and taking on some of his salary....maybe $3 mill a year. It's OK, IMO, to have one player that slow on your team....but not two. If we can get 1-2 solid prospects for Konerko at this point....and they can become solid major league players....I am all for it. Also....if we want to retool....either Lee or Maggs has to be traded for some stud pitchers. I know Cinci wants some good, young starting pitching....and Oakland(though I hate to even bring Oakland into the picture because of Beane) could use a cheap young slugger....IMO....here is one thing we could do. Trade Maggs to Cinci, then Cinci trades Dunn or Kearns to Oakland, Oakland gives us that Harden kid, Cinci gets Harang, we give Oakland Garland, and Cinci gives us Dempster(to see if we can fix his problem, whatever the hell it is) Oakland's then has an OF of Byrnes-Singleton-Dunn/Kearns from left to right, our OF is Lee-Rowand-Borchard from left to right(note: Rowand is only in CF until Reed is ready...and we then try to keep Lee for another year or two until Webster is ready, at which time we move Reed to LF...and our OF is Reed-Webster-Borchard from left to right). Our rotation is Colon, Buehrle, Loaiza, Harden, and then one of Dempster, Rauch, Stewart, or someone else(maybe Arnie Munoz?). Cincinatti's OF from left to right is Kearns-Griffey-Maggs, and they can then trade Guillen anywhere where they could get some young pitching from(possibly Tampa, Detroit, Milwaukee, or some other crappy team like that that needs a little offensive help)....and Cinci's rotation is whatever it is now with Harang inserted into Dempster's spot. Our lineup could then be f***ed around with....you could have Jimenez, Lee, Thomas, Borchard, Crede, Daubach, Valentin(or whoever the SS is), Olivo, Rowand....or some s*** like that. I just feel that if that became our rotation....we'd have a killer rotation for years to come(whether or not Dempster does come out of his year and a half long funk....because we then still have Rauch and Wright to use as well). If Dempster/Rauch work out in the rotation, I then move Wright to the bullpen and groom him to be a closer. Our bullpen is then Koch, Wright, Marte, Sanders, Ginter, Glover for next year....maybe have Majewski or Almonte come up as well. We don't have Manuel as manager; instead, Wally Backman is making the calls. And, in a perfect world, Von Joshua would be back as hitting coach. You know what scares me the most out of this whole f***ing retooling thing? One Chicago team is actually going in the right direction, and that team didn't just change the name of their stadium. You figure out who I'm talking about. I dont know if a 5 year deal, with an option for a 6th is a good idea with a pitcher on the wrong side of 30 and with the workload that he has had. I am a huge Colon fan and wish that the Sox would resign him, but anything more than a 4 year deal gets risky. The Sox haven't had a great defensive CF(outfielder for that matter) in a long time. Even though on paper Minnesota might not be quite as talented as the Sox they win with a defensive that takes away outs. Hunter and Jones probably get to 3 or 4 more balls during a week compared to the Sox outfield. That could be the difference in a game a week. It would be nice to have an outfield that could do the same thing and I think with Beltran in CF and Reed in LF it could happen. Why not trade and sing Beltran? The guy is one of the top young CF's in the game and player that you can build a team around. He is the oppisite of the one dimension players that plague the current offensive roster. He does all of the 5 tools average or better. I just think it would be a great addition and something to build aroung in the retooling process. I also think this team should retool and not rebuild. There is enough young talent on the current roster to build around and contend with if some of the right pieces are added. If you look at my purposed 2004 roster it is a team built to contend that year and in the future with some retooling. I think my trade purposal is a fair deal for Beltran. I think the situtation is very similar to the Colon deal and in my purposed deal the Sox would be giving up much more while filling some of the KC needs. I am a huge fan of Reed and would rather trade Borchard then Reed. I would love to get rid of both Thomas and Konerko, but that will be hard to do. I wish the Sox could get out of their contract with Thomas this offseason. Maggs and Garland for Harden and Dempster? Are you on crack? Have you seen Dempster of late? You want to give up one of the top RF's in the game and a young pitcher(who is starting to pitch better) for a guy that doesnt belong in the majors(Dempster) and a pitching prospect that hasn't even stepped foot onto a major league field. No thanks. Ideas like that is why guys like you and me aren't GM's.

No they wouldnt. KC gets their choise of Miles/Hummel/Harris. While none of these guys are top prospects they all offer something solid, have consistantly put up good numbers in the minors, and are ready to contribute at the majors(something I believe is important because KC is looking to contend in the very near future). I am sure that they would be happy with one of them. They would also get one of the top offensive prospects in the game. A guy capable of playing CF and has the potential to match and maybe even surpass Beltran's offensive production. Throw in a pitching prospect like a Diaz who is ready to contrbute. Even though KC has some solid young adds I am sure that they would love to add another solid arm. I most certainly think KC would ponder such a deal. They get 3 young players, who cost next to nothing, are ready to start everyday in the majors, and fill weaknesses. The Sox gave up far less for Colon when he was entering his FA year, so why would this be a joke. If the Sox can get a front of the rotation starter like Colon for a bunch of scrubs like Biddle, Liefer, Osuna, and a career minor leaguer then they can certainly get Beltran for Borchard, Miles/Hummel/Harris, and Diaz(for example). I think you are overestimating the value of potential FA's heading for big contracts in the near future. The potential offers that I have heard from others team is far less then this offer, including some teams only giving up 1 top prospect. This deal would give them that and then some. 8 years for 15 million, now that is funny. He will get nowhere near those kind of numbers, and when he does sign his next deal I am going to hold you to those numbers southside just to show you who will get laughed at. I dont care who his agent is, owners are showing no love to Boras and it has shown with the prospects that he represents in the draft. If you didnt notice FA prices went DOWN this past offseason(possible because of the new luxery tax). I have a feeling that salaries have top off for the next couple of years. The most I think Beltran will get is 12 m/yr, which is double his current salary. Southside you need a better understanding of the current market before you throw out numbers like 15 m/yr over 8 years(he will not get an 8 year deal either). Come to think of it how many players in the majors have 8 years deal? I cant think of any. No team is willing to make that kind of commitment. Colon might want more than 4 years, but he wont be likely to get it. Not many teams like to invest 5+ years in a pitcher over 30 with the workload that he has had. That just happened to be a random number off the top of my head that seemed fair. How would that be laughed at? Once again I think you are overexaggerating and if you actually sat down to analysis my 1st 3 ideas with what has happened on the baseball market over the past couple of years, instead of speaking the 1st things that come to mind, you will realize that they are pretty fair ideas. Although it will never happen in real life. That sucks with Thomas. I didnt know the exact terms on his new contract. Why would the Sox offer him such a contract? Its obvious that he isnt the same player that he was and is only holding this team down financially. How do you know Jimenez would be worse than Valentin at SS? Lesser range? Once again I think you overestimate Valentin's range. It isnt as great as most people make it out to be and at 32 he has lost a step or two, so I think saying Jimenez has less range than Valentin is very debatable but certainly not a fact either way. No work ethic? Once again this is speculation. The same speculation that tells you Valentin is a goo leader although you really have no way of proving it. At times he does appear lazy, but that doesnt nessarily mean that he has no work ethic. Routine plays made interesting at SS? I think that already happens on a daily basis with Jose "30+ errors" Valentin. The majority of his errors are own routine plays. From what I have seen from Jimenez he makes a lot of errors trying to force the issue, ie hurrying a throw in an attempt to turn 2. Its worth a shot and you really cant make judegements until you have seen him play there on a consistant basis(his rookie year doesnt really count since all young players struggle defensively).

I agree with Neyers. I think this was a great deal for Boston. I think part of the reason that the D-Backs made the trade was for financial reasons, and usually the team getting rid of salary in these types of trades gets the short end of the deal talent wise(ala Millwood this offseason). Hillenbrand is a poormans, 3rd base version of Konerko(when he is hitting like he should). The only thing he does above average is hit for average. Kim is younger and has proven himself as one of the more dominating relievers in the game, and so far has done pretty well as a starter. A quality starter/domination reliever vs an average at best 3rd baseman. If given that choice I would take the pitcher, especially since Boston has other good options to take Hillenbrands AB's. For those of you origanal from the ESPN board this is a good day because Boogs favorite team got the short end of the deal.

I realize that the Sox are strapped for cash or at least we are made to believe so. In my fantasy world these are the moves that I would make and if my math is somewhat accurate it would equal out to a payroll slightly over 60 million, which should be doable if JR is really dedicated to putting together a winning team(although I question if he is). 1) Trade Borchard, KC's pick of Miles/Hummel/Harris, and a marginal pitching prospect for Beltran. 2) Sign Beltran to a long term deal in the range of about 5 years for 10 m/yr. One of the top young CF in the game is worth an investment like this. 3) Resign Colon for about 4 years 12 m/yr. Quality starters are hard to come by. 4) Trade Konerko and get whatever you can. Wait till he heats up a little to raise his value. 5) Get rid of Thomas. Trade him or don't resign him. I am sure not many teams would be interested in him(maybe none besides Baltimore). 6) Let Valentin go after this season. Its nice to have a SS that can hit 20+ HR's, but when that is the only thing he does well and he is going to be on the wrong side of 32 it isnt worth 5 m/yr for a player like that. 7) Pick up Loaiza's extention for next year. If he continues to pitch well and finishes the year with a sub-4.50 ERA. Its nice to have a solid veteran in the rotation considering the Sox are struggling to develop young pitchers. 8) Release White. There is no reason this guy should be on the team. Ginter is having a solid year at AAA and has a better future with the Sox. 9) Trade Glover. You wont get much for, but it should free up some space in the pen. His numbers arent good enough for a solid reliever. 10) Possible trade Wunsch if a good offer is on the table. The Sox have a very deep minor league system when it comes to relievers, especially from the left side. 11) Resign Gordon. Since the 1st week he has probably been the most dominating reliever and I am a firm believe that a good bullpen is one of the major keys to sucess. 12) Resign Daubach simply as a backup plan with Konerko and Thomas gone. He is a much cheaper option and has hit 20+ HR's the last 4 years and is usually a consistant .800 OPS guy when given everyday playing time. 13) Have Miles/Hummel/Harris(the two that arent involved in the Beltran trade) fight for the 2nd base job and move Jimenez to SS. At least give the kid a shot there. He came up as a SS, is a decent athlete, and the only sample size to judge him on in the majors was during his rookie year(almost all rookies/youngsters struggle defensively in their 1st couple of years). If the Sox do these moves they should be able to put a more talented team on the future, mostly adding by subtracting some of the deadweight. If you include some of the raises that player eligible for arbitration and Maggs gets it should equal out to a very talented team and improved in most aspects(no longer one dimensional and prone for long term slumps because when the players arent hitting they offer other things like speed and defense) and a payroll slightly over 60 million. The lineup would like somewhat like this. SS Jimenez LF Reed(by the AS break next year) RF Maggs CF Beltran DH Lee 1B Daubach(or other option Gload/prospect received in a trade/cheap FA) 3B Crede C Olivo 2B Miles/Hummel/Harris LH Buehrle RH Colon RH Loaiza RH Garland/Wright/Rauch/Diaz/LH Stewart/ LH Cotts(2 of the following in the final two spots) RH Koch LH Marte LH Ring LH Munoz RH Gordon RH Ginter The team would be better defensively with Beltran in CF and Reed in LF(a natural CF). The 2 of them should be able to cover a ton of ground and might develop into the 3rd best 1-2 combination defensively in the outfield(behind Cameron/Ichiro and Hunter/Jones). Jimenez at SS cant be much worse than Valentin and if Harris wins the 2nd base job he is very solid defensively. Not to mention the likely improvement from Crede and Olivo. The team also has much more speed with Beltran, Harris(if he wins the spot), and Reed being 20+ threats to add to players like Maggs, Lee, Jimenez, and Olivo who have solid speed as well. The lineup still has good power with Maggs, Beltran, Lee, Crede, and Daubach all capable of hitting 20+ HR's. It also adds some contact hitters with solid plate disipline(Reed, Beltran, and Hummel(if he wins the spot)). This is what I would do if I ran the team. Sorry for the length, but my dream about being GM is now over.

A guy I would love to see the Sox go after is Beltran. I know that he is on the block and there was an article on yahoo sports that said the Sox are one of the teams interested. He is due for a big pay increase in the near future, but I like the idea of investing 10 million/yr in one of the top young CF's in the game. The guy is very consistant and does almost everything above average. He is a consistant .270+/20+/100+ 30+ 2B 50+ BB 25+ SB guy not to mention that he is probably the 3rd best defensive CF in the AL(behind Hunter and Cameron). He is also only 26, so I think it would be a great addition to the team and a centerpiece to build around. I would even include Borchard as part of a deal. A deal like Borchard, their choice between Miles/Hummel/Harris, and a marginal pitching prospect should be a pretty fair deal and enough to land Beltran. As far as the Colon article goes on soxnet, I think a top of the order hitter isnt needed as much as he thinks. Jimenez is proving to be a very good leadoff hitter, and Reed looks like he would fit perfectly in the #2 hole with his good average, great plate disipline, gap power, and great speed. He could be in the majors by the AS break next year. I would be carefully with some of the Yankee prospects. They have a tendancy to overhype some of them. From what I have seen of Rivera and Almonte I am not all that impressed and think that the Sox could probably get a better deal elsewhere(Philly will probably be in the market for some pitching and could add payroll, as well as Boston). As someone already pointed out the Baltimore deal is a joke. Mora really looks like a very good young player, and even though I think Lee could be in line for a breakout year, I doubt that Baltimore would do a Lee for Mora deal straight up. Almonte, as the article points out, is a 26 year old closer, with average stuff at best, who is getting hammered in AAA. He would be of little use in Baltimore and there is no way that you could get one of their better young starters for him. As others have pointed out, the writters intentions are good, finding more athletic players, but the deals are a little off.

I agree that we should keep Colon. I love the idea of Colon, Buehrle, and Loaiza(if he continues to pitch well) as you pointed out. Quality pitchers are hard to come by and the Sox have been unable to develop them. I think if the Sox got rid of some deadweight they could afford resigning him. Either trade/don't resign Valentin and Thomas, trade Konerko(after he heats up a bit to raise his value), release White, and some other minor moves would free up about 15 million. That is more than enough to resign Colon for a 2-4 million/yr raise, resign Loaiza(I think he has a 4 million option for next year), and pay the plays that are getting raises(Maggs and arbitration eligable players). It might even leave a couple of extra million and with that I would love to see the Sox trade for Beltran. Adding one of the top young CF's would be a nice piece to build around. He is going to get a raise in salary soon, but even after signing him long term that would probably equal out to a payroll just over 60 miliion, which is more than doable(not going to happen though) With that said you and I both know that the chances of resigning Colon are slim to none, espiecially if the Sox continue to struggle. So getting a couple of solid prospects in return is better than nothing. How does the prospect compensation thing work? Do the Sox have to declare Colon as their franchise player and then when another team signs him the Sox get their top pick? I though I read that they were doing away with that rule?

I think Boston will probably move Sanchez to 2nd. Boston doesn't have a deep system and trading one of their few good prospects doesn't make much sense. I would love to see him in a Sox unifrom, but I just don't think it will happen. If the Hillenbrand-Kim trade goes through i think Boston won't be that interested in Colon. If the Sox are out of it there will definately be some teams interested in Colon though. Quality pitchers that are available at the deadline are like gold.

I think Jimenez at SS is a possibility. He came up through the minors as a SS, so its not like the position is new to him. He did make 20some errors in 80some games at SS as a rookie, but show me a young player that doesn't struggle defensively in his 1st couple of years. Look at some of the top defensive SS today(Arod, Jeter, Garciaparra, ect) and you will see that most made a ton of errors as youngsters, but got better with experience. I think Crede will fall into the same boat. He has made a lot of errors in his 1st season+, but I think he will eventually develop into a low error guy and one of the top defensive 3rd baseman in the game. You just have to be patient with young players, especially defensively. So I like the idea of moving Jimenez to SS. Lets see what he can do and if he can improve in time. He is a decent athlete and can't be much worse than Valentin. I really like Hummel and think he might be the best 2nd base prospect that the Sox have. I think Valentin needs to go after this season, so move Jimenez to SS and let Harris, Hummel, and Miles battle for the 2nd base job. Hopefully one of them can develop into a solid 2nd baseman in time. Harris is probably the best defensive possibility and has great speed to offer. If he could learn to hit on a consistant basis and draw a decent amount of walks he would be a good option. I have never been a huge fan of Miles because of his age and lack of patience at the plate, but I have to give it to the kid he continues to hit and put up solid offensive numbers. Hummel is probably the best offensive option of the 3. He has shown an ability to hit for average, has good gap power, and has shown solid plate disipline in the minors. He isn't that good defensively though. I wish we could combine each players strengths and form one player.

I think you can't include anyone over the age of 25 as a prospect. Guys like Sanders and Brambaugh are career minor leaguers not prospects. I have noticed through the years that the chances of someone over 25 entering the majors for the 1st time and becoming a solid major leaguer are almost none. I know that it is hard enough to find 50 guys as it is, but I don't think you should include guys over 25. You also run into some trouble when deciding whether to classify guys like Ginter, Olivo, Borchard, Rowand, ect as prospect. Players that are still under 25, but have had some time in the majors. I think a rule like no guy with more than 300 major league AB's or 100 IP should also be used. This will cut down the possibilities even more, but will include guys that haven't established themselves in the majors. With that said, good luck with the list. I always like seeing stuff on the minors as I follow the minors pretty regularly.