Kenny Hates Prospects

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Dec 5, 2008 -> 03:54 AM) Well, the thing is, almost EVERY business in the country can be looked to cut costs in anticipation of having a rough go the next couple of years...that provides the Sox cover, whether they believe in Obama or not. Bill Clinton, whether you believe him or not, said the economic problem should be able to overcome in 15-24 months...if they "make all the right decisions." Well, there's no guarantees on that happening. The thing is, nobody knows. You can take all of the last decade's Nobel Prize winners in Economics and you'd have 10 dramatically different opinions on a solution. I just think they're being prudent...and that we probably were over budget about $5-15 million last season and we're going to make it up this season, partially with the raising of ticket prices. I think it's better to be careful then to get into a real desperate situation like some teams, where they basically have to auction off talent to keep their organizations afloat. The Twins are going to have to open their new stadium in 2010 in the middle of something resembling the Great Depression, for all intents and purposes, and Carl Pohlad was already stingy before. With Thome, Konerko, Dye and Contreras all leaving the books in the next couple of seasons, Buehrle would be, far and away, our highest paid player. You have a point, and you make a great point about the Twins and their new stadium. Things are going to get really bad for the small market teams. Well, it'll get really bad for everyone, but the Twins will have it worse, and they'll deserve it because they suck. J/K, no one deserves what's about to go down, it's going to get bad.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 5, 2008 -> 09:03 AM) I don't think Fields would be a part of this deal. I think Cantu would be an OF who would take JD's line-up spot. That would be horrible. We could probably sign Juan Rivera for as much as Cantu will make in arbitration.

God no. Cantu hit 29 HR last year in 628 AB vs. 23 HR for Fields in 373 AB during 2007. Granted the park is a factor, but Fields just has a lot more power. Plus he is cheaper and under control for longer, and it's not like Cantu is exactly leading the world in OBP, or making a lot of contact at the plate, or playing respectable defense at 3B. This deal would be a big L for Kenny Williams. And it's not like Cantu is any safe bet or anything. Cantu had two abysmal seasons in between his 2005 and 2008 years. I have no idea why we'd want Cantu anyway, unless Kenny is thinking of trading Paulie for prospects or something like that. Then maybe bring in Cantu to play 1B, but trading Fields for him is dumb IMO. But even in that case, two of the likeliest destinations for Paulie would probably be AZ and LAA who both have 1B to give up (Jackson, Tracy, Morales). Maybe if it's a SF deal or even an Oakland deal if they miss out on Furcal.

QUOTE (gosox41 @ Dec 4, 2008 -> 10:23 PM) Do you know anything about this for a fact or is this just opinion? Since the season ended, KW has cut $36 mill in pay roll. While I'm well aware of the economic situation and that some players are due raises, I have a hard time believving payroll will be cut 33%. I have no inside info right now, but the team won a division last season and drew well. Season ticket prices are going up, not staying the same or decreasing. I just don't see payroll remaining at this level. I may be wrong but logic tells me othewise. KW has to know this team can't win a next year the way it's currently set up. If you're going to rebuild, you trade Jenks and Dye (and PK and Thome if possilbe) not keep them and hope Richard and Marquez win 15 games each and hope Anderson learns to hit, that one of the 42 second basemen KW has picked up become starts and that Fields hits and fields better. too many quesiton marks. There are some people around who are saying the economy is going to get a whole lot worse than it is now and not just magically recover under the hand of the Great Obama. It's kind of funny, because there is all this love talk about Obama coming out of the Sox camp and yet at the same time there are some indications that ownership itself doesn't believe "he can." Of course the Sox could deal off Dye and maybe Paulie too, then turn around and sign a high-priced FA like Dunn or something to kind of cover it up a bit, but it's not totally out of the question that the Sox look to potential $5M/year or less options at spots they decide to fill with veterans.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 4, 2008 -> 08:08 PM) The one thing I took out of the Stone interview was it seems like JD is a goner. Considering all the praise they have given JD over the years, dangling him out to every team basically in such a public fashion seems curious. I wonder if his problems with OC cost him some points with the White Sox hierarchy. You're looking too far into it. The Sox love JD, and if he were three years younger right now then he wouldn't be for sale. He's on the block because he can help the Sox get younger and better in the future. As far as the Dye rumors becoming public, there's practically no way around that. I doubt Kenny or any other GM can heavily shop a player without it being leaked at some point. All these reporters have their sources (except for Bruce Levineline) who love to run their mouths and spill the beans.

QUOTE (chunk23 @ Dec 4, 2008 -> 02:42 PM) After last year's Hunter incident of course KW is going to say he doesn't plan on doing anything. Him telegraphing the moves were what led to it not happening. Kenny has talked about how some details of potential moves slipped out and hurt him last year, but I don't buy any of that. Kenny missed out Rowand because he didn't offer a fifth year. Kenny missed out on Fukudome because Fukudome wanted to be the first Cubs Japanese player, and thank god for that. Kenny missed out on Miguel Cabrera because the Marlins liked Miller and Maybin more than Fields and Danks/Gio. And, Kenny missed out on Torii Hunter because the Angels came in last-minute and offered a ridiculous contract that no one was going to match. The media didn't hurt him at all.

QUOTE (KevinM @ Dec 3, 2008 -> 01:00 AM) Not really. I was encouraged by the fact Floyd has actually enjoyed success above the AA level. Putting up a 4.42 ERA in the American League as a 24 year old is called success.

QUOTE (SoxFan101 @ Dec 3, 2008 -> 12:29 AM) How much of Edwin Jackson have you really seen, his fastball might be high velocity but has no movement to it. If he was so good why was he left off the playoff roster, the Rays didn't even want him in the bullpen. He was left off the playoff roster during the first round because they only needed 4 starters tops. He was with them through the rest of the playoffs and pitched in the rest of the playoffs. And how much movement do you expect to see on a 98mph fastball? The key is his offspeed stuff. If he can locate his change and slider to go with the speed of his fastball he'll keep hitters off balance.

QUOTE (almagest @ Dec 3, 2008 -> 12:28 AM) If this were the case, then HR/9 wouldn't be a sustainable stat -- you'd see wild variations for almost every pitcher. A little research shows this isn't the case at all. Also, just because a good hitter hits a pitcher's pitch for a home run doesn't invalidate the point. I'm not sure why you'd even say that. A pitcher cannot control whether or not he gives up home runs because he does not himself swing the bat. He can throw a meatball right down the middle of the plate, and do it again and again and again and not be taken yard, but then the next hitter can come up and hit a good pitch 450 feet. The pitcher has no say; all he can do is throw the ball. The odds say that a flyball pitcher with X stuff in X park in X league will generally give up X HR's. That has nothing to do with anything the pitcher has control over. http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/V/J...r-Vazquez.shtml As far as it being a "sustainable stat" it is not, not anymore than H/9 rate which also varies a lot, and is again something the pitcher has virtually no control over. Look at Javy's numbers above for an example.

QUOTE (KevinM @ Dec 3, 2008 -> 12:26 AM) He also doesn't strike anyone out anymore. That changed. What the f*** does this have to do with Gavin? He's not garbage -- he can strike people out and his season of success was actually good peripherally. Gavin Floyd's peripherals prior to this year were a lot worse than Edwin Jackson. What I am saying is that you once again miss the entire f***ing point that a young kid's minor league numbers or early MLB performance is not in any way a reliable indicator of how he will perform in the future. Gavin's control improved a ton last year. You would have said he sucked based on your current "logic."

QUOTE (greg775 @ Dec 3, 2008 -> 12:13 AM) I read some of the articles saying we get JoJo Reyes instead of Lilledge? Isn't Reyes also a stiff? I don't mean to be that negative. I just truly think Boone is worthless and I can't imagine anybody thinking Javy has much value past five innings. I mean he's a five inning guy at best. Maybe in the NL that's very valuable. Reyes IMO has Jonathan Sanchez-like potential if he harnesses his control, so he's not garbage. But then again, both guys we're trading have a lot of ability too and neither of them have put it all together with any consistency. I'd much rather have Morton but there's something to hope for out of Reyes too.

QUOTE (KevinM @ Dec 3, 2008 -> 12:15 AM) If a pitcher has an inordinately high HR rate, or crazy low HR rate, it displays a trend. I'm sorry if I'm not slobbing Jackson's knob for his middling and unimpressive peripherals. Lots and lots of guys possess Jackson's stuff, and he's shown no reason to believe in his ability to harness it. By this exact reasoning Gavin Floyd would have been absolute garbage not worth acquiring. Your kind has been proven wrong, so don't try to take you luck bulls*** and apply it elsewhere. And no, lot's of guys do not have the type of stuff Edwin Jackson possesses. Saying that shows how little you know about baseball so just stop it already. This is from a Baseball America article 5 years ago when he was in the Dodgers system. http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/featu...0s/dodgers.html Then they gave up on him and he ended up going to Tampa Bay. The only thing that has changed is that he has gotten big league experience and has improved his control.

QUOTE (whitesoxfan101 @ Dec 3, 2008 -> 12:03 AM) Btw, the 2 games in saw him in person, again FWIW (both middle of the season, my bad with the memory): http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/boxscore;_ylt=...F?gid=280610117 http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/boxscore;_ylt=...F?gid=280713108 He actually had a decent outing in one of the games, but I remember it well because he was hit hard all day, a lot of "at him balls". And I watched the gun close both games, never got above 92. Was he throwing mainly fastballs though? And was he trying to get ahead in the count with his breaking stuff and then only resorting to his FB when down in the count? Just from the Reds board I read it seems there were a ton of changes made to his repertoire and how he was supposed to go about getting hitters out. They said the Reds pretty much took away his curve for his slider. I don't know what went on, and like I say I can't explain why he couldn't get above 92 for those starts and then supposedly sit 93-96 late in the year unless maybe he was trying out a different grip and trying to add some movement to his fastball. There are a lot of concerns obviously about a guy who climbs the charts with an upper-90's FB that touches 100 but then doesn't hit 92. As long as he checks out medically though he could end up being another Floyd, in that he just needs a change of scenery to get some things out of his head and let his talent work for him. Let him throw the curveball again if he wants to and let him use his fastball more. Whatever the case is, if he checks out then I'd be fine with the move, although I would like at least another high-upside prospect out of the low minors to go in the deal. And, I'd still like another starter after just trading Javy. I'd like someone with some experience that I know, at least on paper, is a sure bet to step in the 4th slot of the rotation.

QUOTE (KevinM @ Dec 2, 2008 -> 11:49 PM) Wrong. So, so, so wrong. Luck is very important in evaluating a pitcher. A pitcher can control walks, strikeouts, and HR. Other than that, it is up to his defense. Lucky for Edwin, he was on a fantastic defensive team this season. With a bad defense, he's in trouble, considering how many guys he puts on base and his complete and utter inability to strike guys out. His peripherals are not impressive, and it's pretty clear he has a future in the bullpen. LMAO A pitcher can control where he throws the ball and how he throws it. Some pitchers have trouble keeping their body under control, but that is not because they are unlucky. If a pitcher can control the opposition hitting home runs, why do pitchers allow that stuff? And BTW, if you've never seen a pitcher's pitch hit for a home run then you have never seen a very good hitter in action.

QUOTE (Kalapse @ Dec 2, 2008 -> 11:25 PM) Well in the past 2 years they've given away Max Ramirez and Willy Aybar for Bob Wickman and Jeff Ridgway. In all fairness though, at the time Aybar had a serious substance abuse problem and skipped out on the team. There aren't going to be a ton of teams that will be willing to take on a guy like that.

QUOTE (whitesoxfan101 @ Dec 2, 2008 -> 11:19 PM) That's why I hate this deal. His velocity wasn't there and he was clearly healthy enough to pitch because they'd have shut him down otherwise. FWIW I saw him in person twice last year, once earlier in the season and once later on, and he looked equally atrocious stuffwise both times. That sucks. I've only seen video on the guy. I guess I'd just put faith in the Sox staff. He'd have to take a full physical to come here so I'm sure if there was anything all that major it would pop up - I can't imagine the Sox letting this go through without getting a look at everything they possibly can. Then again, I still wonder how in the world we were able to send Freddy to the Phils after '06 with a physical. I'd have my worries too, but he's one of those guys that if he can keep his FB in the mid-90's and find that curveball again, he could help us a whole lot for the next 6-7 years.

QUOTE (KevinM @ Dec 2, 2008 -> 11:13 PM) Please, explain to me how luck doesn't exist in evaluating a pitcher. How can he be so fantastic with guys on base, but so awful with the bases empty? It's not a matter of clutchness, or holding something back until it matters most (in which case, please do me a favor and find some evidence of this), it's a matters of his peripherals showing his extreme luck. He may have stuff, but his command is terrible, as evidenced by his Jon Garland-esque strikeout rates. I'll say this one time, but I know you won't get it because you can't get the idea that luck is not a factor in anything. Edwin Jackson has command problems. These control problems are the result of Edwin Jackson having trouble getting in a groove and consistently repeating his delivery. The chances are his command will improve deeper into innings and deeper into games. Had you bothered to look at the actual numbers instead of reading an article written by a soothsayer with a passing interest in team sports, you'd see him for what he is and you would not suggest luck. Luck is not a factor. When you throw in the high-90's and have a devastating slider, you are not lucky to retire Major League hitters. http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/pspli...1&year=2008 These are his splits. See how opponents hit .341/.412/.538 against him during the first 25 pitches? See how that, as the game goes on, the opposition actually hits worse against him the second and third times through the lineup when they've actually seen more of him? Or how when you look at walks with a certain number of outs, that he actually walks 1/3 less players with 2 out than 0 or 1 out? Even better, just look at his gamelog. The guy has had 6 very bad starts which have hurt his overall numbers. Otherwise he is very, very good. The improvements in his peripherals strongly suggest that he is repeating his delivery more. In short, there are probably a thousand things you can talk about. Luck is not one of them and it never will be one of them.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Dec 2, 2008 -> 10:54 PM) I can see the Willy Taveras thread arguments transferred to another one if Lillibridge was named the starting CFer (with his 2008 season highlights/lowlights featured prominently). I'm no BA fan, but I would rather have BA or Owens or a BA/Owens platoon than Lillibridge as the starter there. At least we know Taveras can steal bases, and has the arm/speed/range to play the position at much better than MLB average for center. The only reason for defending Taveras after his 2008 season is his track record of making the most of his skillset. Lillibridge hasn't proven anything in the Majors, although his ceiling is probably higher since he's a SS. Like others have stated, I'm still a bit confused by this move. I like it, no doubt, but it has me scratching my head just a little. Lillibridge immediately falls to no. 3 on the SS depth chart and we still don't have an MLB-ready SP. Lillibridge could make for some great IF depth on the '09 bench next to Betemit, but I think there's a good chance this move sets up another. The Reds have confirmed the Dye discussions, and the Jenks discussions with the Mets have been confirmed as well, and both teams seem like good fits for the players they are after (Dye and Jenks), so putting it all together, maybe one of our IF is wanted by another of these teams to complete a deal? I know the Reds are kind of stuck with Gonzalez. Perhaps they covet Lillibridge, and he's the missing piece in a Dye + Lillibridge for Bailey + prospect(s) deal?

QUOTE (whitesoxfan101 @ Dec 2, 2008 -> 10:19 PM) I would just like to say for the record that I hate this deal. I saw almost every one of Bailey's starts last year, and his velocity was nowhere near the levels I had heard it was when he pitched in the minors. Unless we have some sort of info that Bailey was pitching hurt last season, count me out on this deal. FWIW, I read some posts on a Reds board that was linked to here, and someone over there was saying the Reds took away his FB for much of the year to concentrate on his offspeed stuff. Also I read that his velocity was back up at the end of the year and he was sitting in the mid-90's with his FB. I have no idea why his velocity would have been down on his FB earlier, unless he was trying to do something different with the pitch, but I imagine that if there were any problems whatsoever Bailey would have been shut down immediately. Instead he made 27 starts combined for Triple A Lousiville and the Reds.

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Dec 2, 2008 -> 10:00 PM) Yes, hate. Seems like whenever his name is mentioned somebody goes off about how awful he is or how he sucks or whatever. The dude is like 25. Damn. Yeah, a 19-year-old when he debuted and who used to be one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, and he spent his second full season as a starter in the Major Leagues on a team that went to the WS... and he was 24. The hate is ridiculous and the luck "argument" isn't even an argument, it's a cop-out. Bringing luck into a discussion is basically saying "I have nothing intelligent to say, but I'm going to post anyway." It seems like most of the guys who go from the pedigree of Edwin Jackson to guys that "suck" in the minds of fans, it is because of some major surgery that causes the pitcher to lose the stuff that made him so highly regarded. In Jackson's case, the stuff is still there. The problem has been control, and he has done nothing at all but improve in that area. Jackson had a horrible September last year, as a 24-year-old once again. Prior to that, Jackson's numbers were: 26 GS, 156 IP, 3.81 ERA, 1.41 WHIP He finished with... 32 GS, 183.3 IP, 4.42 ERA (above the league average of 4.44), 1.51 WHIP And his peripherals have all improved. Anyone who thinks Jackson sucks is just plain ignorant of his age, his pedigree, his stuff, his improvement, and most importantly, the TB Rays organization as a whole. Why in the f*** would an organization with McGee, Davis, Price, Niemann, Hellickson, etc. have them all in the minor leagues if Edwin Jackson sucked? Use your head. The guy has serious talent and has shown nothing but growth in the Major Leagues.

QUOTE (RockRaines @ Dec 2, 2008 -> 09:49 PM) I think he signs for 2 years 18 mil with an option. That's extremely conservative, especially since he won't cost any draft picks. OF trade market (as of now): Dye Damon or Matsui? Melky Cabrera Luke Scott is probably available Adam Lind possibly if the Jays feel Snider is ready One of Garko/Gutierrez/Francisco/Choo, etc. Teahen DeJesus maybe? For a lot... Jose Guillen Delmon Young, again for a lot I'm sure Michael Cuddyer Marcus Thames probably, Maggs is said to be off the table Willy Mo Pena Jeremy Hermida Nate McLouth Fukudome Ludwick Ankiel Andruw Jones Delwyn Young Eric Byrnes Chad Tracy or Connor Jackson? Taveras Spilborghs Brian Giles OF free agent market: Dunn Abreu Griffey Rivera Ibanez Garret Anderson some other stuff I can't think of The bolded guys are probably the best bets for power hitting OF's, but... Ludwick is a big question mark given his one season of MLB success after being labeled a AAAA player Ankiel is one year from FA and brings K rate and steriod baggage Jose Guillen is a roided-up cocksucker The Indians guys have talent and potential but you've got to be wary of those guys IMO Cuddyer mostly blows Damon and Matsui might not be even available and are getting up there in age Delmon Young and McLouth are going to be very expensive, and Young has never hit for big power (yet) I could go on, but looking at that list, it appears guys like Dye, Burrell, Dunn, Abreu, and Giles will be in demand because they are proven and either have favorable contracts or won't cost draft picks to sign. Pegging Abreu's contract that low is saying a lot.

QUOTE (Jenksy Cat @ Dec 2, 2008 -> 09:20 PM) Hopefully we can get someone like Abreu. But i do like the idea of Dunn if he's moderately affordable, plays LF next year and DH once Thome is gone. Abreu wants three years. I for one don't want to pay him $15M for his Age 35-Age 37 seasons, not when Dunn (29 next year) is available.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Dec 2, 2008 -> 09:18 PM) Viciedo figures in here somewhere too as a power source for sure... I don't think Abreu (age, will want $45/3 years) and Dunn (too one dimension for KW's new "vision") are the best fits. I think someone like Juan Rivera (if Dye is indeed traded) makes the best sense for 2 years in LF. It's safe to say that much of KW's vision is towards the future. Dunn makes for an ideal Thome replacement as DH in 2010 and going forward. While he may not be in the Sox plans, I wouldn't be surprised if he is.

QUOTE (daa84 @ Dec 2, 2008 -> 09:14 PM) that would be pretty nice...especially if we could get a young pitcher + another prospect for dye...theres an awful lot of on base ability in that lineup with dunn, thome, quentin...i wouldnt sweat the K's too much though, but you are right, dunn, fields thome and alexei could help lead that team to mlb records in Ks...whatever though..my personal feelings towards Ks are rather well documented around here, so it wouldnt bother me too much Alexei makes very good contact, actually some of the best contact in the Sox organization. His K numbers last year may actually be high for him given his rough start and late-season wear-down.

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Dec 2, 2008 -> 07:59 PM) Oh I agree. Just saying that I'd be more than satisfied if it were a 1 for 1 deal. I have to think there's some substance to the Reds deal and/or the Rays deal involving Dye. Assuming Morton is not part of the Javy package we will still need some MLB-ready SP talent unless Kenny opts to go with a FA signing and Richard or something, and God I hope he does not do that. If the Rays would be interested in Jenks and the Reds are interested in Dye, if we can do two deals there then we'd have a 4th starter in Jackson and possibily a 5th in Bailey if he can make the team. I'd feel much safer and much more optimistic about the future with Bailey and Jackson as our #4-#5 going forward for $800K combined instead of say Richard and Garland for about $12.4M combined.