Kenny Hates Prospects

QUOTE (BearSox @ Nov 28, 2008 -> 03:40 PM) Oh yeah, hopefully Jerry Owens would be part of the deal as well. That's a great idea. Throw in Lance Broadway and Kyle McCulloch too.

QUOTE (BearSox @ Nov 28, 2008 -> 02:48 PM) I'd gladly do a Boone Logan for Willy T trade. Same here. They can have any of our relievers except Jenks, Thornton, Dotel, Richard, and Linebrink. Or maybe Link if the Sox really do think that highly of him. But anyone else, go for it. Logan, Wassermann, and Russell all have a shot at being above average relievers, and if they want Heilman, I don't know why they wouldn't rather take a couple of our guys instead. Heilman isn't all that good.

QUOTE (supernuke @ Nov 28, 2008 -> 02:46 PM) I love how Javy gets crapped on for not being a big game pitcher and he needs to be gone, but almost no one ever gets on Buehrle's case when he always seems to take a month or 2 off each season. When Mark gets hit it's because he's missing his spots. Javy is a good pitcher, but if he had Buehrle's brain he'd be a future Hall of Famer. It's a lot easier to crap on the headcase than the overachiever.

QUOTE (bmags @ Nov 27, 2008 -> 10:10 PM) I don't think baseball players are that overpaid considering the amount of money baseball makes and the amount of players who can compete at that skill level. The Giants, speaking on Barry Zito, and the Angels, speaking on GMJ, would probably disagree. The difference between a veteran player on a large free agent contract and a prospect or AAA player making league minimum can easily be marginal or worse on the field and astronomical on the payroll. The reason we're trading our own bargain in Javy Vazquez is because we're looking for similar or better performance for $400K. Makes sense. That said, the players deserve whatever the market will bare. It's unfortunate when s***ty GM's offer s***ty contracts to s***ty players that upset the market, but these things will always work themselves out in the end. You don't see teams like Texas and Arizona overpaying on the free agent market anymore, and for good reason.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Nov 27, 2008 -> 10:05 PM) I respectfully disagree with you a lot. 1.) Why wouldn't Garland come back to Chicago? Great city. He won a title here. 2.) You say he's not worth whatever he's asking. Who the hell in baseball today IS WORTH what they are asking/making?? I mean if you want us to have all guys in the first 3-4 years of their careers making peanuts, say so. But my god. How many players do you think are worth what they make? None? I'd agree with that. No ballplayer who is eligible for free agency is worth what he's making. 3.) Garland is not exactly old I realize what Kenny said about money. 4.) If JR and KW won't give a 3-4 year deal, then I guess just keep getting guys like Danks and Floyd. Even the Royals have signed some free agent pitchers like Meche. You think Meche is worth what he is making? Of course not. They are paying him anyway. I think there's a decent chance Danks and Floyd will regress next season. Hopefully they won't. We need some veteran pitchers and Oz obviously wants nothing to do with Javy. My rotation: Mark, Danks, Floyd, Garland, Byrd. I think my rotation is a division winner. I could be wrong, but I don't think the Sox are going to trade a bunch of very good players on below-market deals in order to sign mediocre players at or above market value. Kenny will be looking for good, young MLB-ready players to step in now, and if he does give $11-13M to a player, it probably won't be Garland. The Sox even came out and said after the Garland trade that they felt he'd reached his ceiling and wasn't capable of replicating his '05 season.

QUOTE (beck72 @ Nov 27, 2008 -> 09:58 PM) The asking price for Dye from KW is a young starting pitcher and an OFer. I never said Jones for Dye. IMO, Jones still has upside after one down year. If Kenny wants players that will be ready in the this year or 2010 then he should ask for some combination of Hanson/JoJo/Rohrbough/Morton and Blanco/Gorkys/Shafer/Heyward. Asking for someone you're not even going to play doesn't make sense. Emil Brown could equal the numbers Jones put up in the Majors this year and a healthy Juan Rivera, Garrett Anderson, Ken Griffey Jr. etc. off the scrap heap could easily exceed even the most generous expectations for Jones.

QUOTE (beck72 @ Nov 27, 2008 -> 09:09 PM) You seem to be against trading Dye. I'd love for Dye to be kept around to DH. Yet the sox can get a good return for him and get younger and better for the long term. The guys the sox get in return for Dye probably won't outproduce him in 2009. Yet they should be able to help the sox. I threw out some names from ATL based on the media report. You don't like Jones. Fine. He was a top tier prospect heading into 2008. But you do like Blanco, right, who had 1000 more at bats than Jones in the minors, and hit for a career .273/.372/.377 line compared to Jones' .283/.360/.456 line? I'm not fully understanding. I want to trade Dye. I just want to trade him for some guys who have the potential to stick somewhere long-term. Ditto with Javy and Jenks. We're trading proven players for unproven commodities. We had better make sure we get guys who we believe will make impacts similar to the players we're dealing them for. I'm not in love with Gregor Blanco or anything but he's a much better player than Jones. Gregor is a CF with speed. He fits into a position, Jones does not. The MLB league average for CF's is a lot easier to hit than it is for corner OF'ers and Gregor brings skills that allow him to fit there. Look at Gregor's numbers since 2005, specifically his K and BB numbers. Jones is not good enough to do that. You made a comparison to DeJesus, offensively Blanco is much closer to DeJesus than Jones is. When Blanco left the minors his K numbers had been in constant decline and over the last few years the gap between his K and BB numbers had closed. Jones doesn't make as much contact, nor does he walk as much. Blanco walked 74 times last year in the Major Leagues. Jones' career high anywhere was 61 across three levels in '07 in what was by far his best year. You just can't compare these guys. They are the same age. Blanco went from a raw prospect to a Major League baseball player. Jones took steps backward and it doesn't appear he ever had Blanco's potential anyway since Blanco can play a premium position.

QUOTE (beck72 @ Nov 27, 2008 -> 08:52 PM) Jones has more tools than DeJesus but projects like him-a guy who can hit for avg. and sport a good OBP. I still don't know about that. Danny Richar has a lot more tools than David Eckstein does but there's a pretty good chance Richar never starts in the Majors. David DeJesus I fear is going to end up being like the offensive version of Mark Buehrle. By that I mean, normally when you look at soft-tossing lefties with control and a decent change you think, "OK, maybe this guy can make it as a LOOGY/LR/5th starter type." But because of what Buehrle is able to do, people will always say so-and-so could be the next Buehrle, even though Buehrle is the exception and is truly a special player given what he can do with his ability. I think the same will end up holding true for DeJesus, in that guys who look like 4th OF's with decent skill-sets that don't wow anyone will inevitably be compared to DeJesus, even though he's the overachiever type and that is very hard to do. Looking at Brandon Jones' numbers alone, I don't see any way he can be compared with David DeJesus. DeJesus' contact rate was much better coming up through the minors (DD had 122 K's in 909 minor league AB's compared to 128 K's in '07 and 104 K's in '08) and that contact rate is what makes DeJesus such a good player. He can draw walks - so can Jones - but Jones doesn't walk so much that he'll be able to overcome a poor batting average and still post a respectable OBP. And again, Jones' minor league numbers will certainly dip, and dip a lot, in the Majors. Last year he hit .267/.312/.397 in 116 AB with 7 BB to 28 K. Obviously he can improve on it, but given his lack of power, his lack of contact, his lack of ability to draw enough walks to offset his poor batting average, and given the fact that he is not going to play a premium position, it is very unlikely Jones ever does anything as a starter in the Majors. He does not offer the type of power or hitting ability that will make GM's and managers stick with him for 1-2 seasons while the fans are booing his poor production. Every single team has guys like this. Why didn't we just keep David Cook? I mean seriously. Cook is two years older, but he actually strikes out less, he has a lot more power, and he has twice the batting eye of Jones. Seriously, Cook is a better player than Jones is and we didn't even protect him on the roster. I know you like this dude, but if Kenny traded Jermaine Dye for him he'd be the laughing stock of baseball. Ryan Sweeney is and was better than Jones and we traded him, and only a few posters here even cared when we did it. If we offered JD to Oakland, and Oakland wanted him, I'd like to think we could easily get Sweeney back plus another good player.

QUOTE (Jimmywins1 @ Nov 27, 2008 -> 03:13 PM) I think Blanco would be the better fit, as he plays CF and has the OBP you look for in a lead off hitter. The SB's aren't that important, but they definitely suggest that there is speed there, which we could use. I wouldn't care if he only stole 15 bases if he could repeat that .366 OBP leading off, play good defense, and score from 2nd base. Agreed. Stolen bases are great, but our offense was inconsistent last year because we didn't have enough guys who can score on a single from second or go from first to third on a single and then come home on a sac fly/ground-out. Alexei for example was far from leading the league in the SB category but he definitely could get around the bases when it counted.

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Nov 27, 2008 -> 02:47 PM) Have you even looked at them? They were more than impressive in '06 and '07. Only this past year can you say they were off. And they weren't even that bad. You're sniffin' glue if you think we're gettin' Dickerson along with a stud like Bailey for Dye. That remains to be seen. Dye could very well be the best power-hitting option on the market right now, at least until the Brewers officially make Prince available. Who is going to want to go 4 years Burrell, Abreu, Dunn, and Manny in this economic climate when teams are looking to slash? There will be small and mid-market teams that will much rather have Dye at 2 years and $23.5M total, it just depends on how much they are willing to pay. And Bailey, his stock must have dropped a ton for the Reds to even be considering dealing him. Just because he was once of the best pitching prospects in the game doesn't mean there aren't guys out there who the Sox like better. On paper it's a good return, but we don't know what the Reds know.

QUOTE (beck72 @ Nov 27, 2008 -> 02:57 PM) I listed Blanco as well a few posts back. Yet Jones, IMO is better than Blanco. Both are the same age. Yet Jones has a better line in the minors .283/.360/.456 in 1,000 less ab's compared to Blanco. Blanco has decent numbers .273/.372/.377. And his 182 sb's are nice. But not his 86 CS for a 68% avg. Blanco's tools and ability fit his position better than Jones' tools and ability do. If you can't hit for power in the corners then you had better do something else exceptionally well if you want to start in the Majors. CF is a completely different story.

QUOTE (beck72 @ Nov 27, 2008 -> 01:57 PM) I'm sorry, but nowhere is Brandon Jones looked like as "crap". He's a guy who should be able to hit for avg. play solid defense, and get on base. Whether that's in LF or RF, who cares. In the NL that makes a difference having a corner OFer being able to hit or power without the DH. But not so much for the sox. And say no to Jones who has far greater upside over a Griffey or Rivera? Did you mean to put that in green? The sox need to get younger. And need to diversify their lineup by adding guys who can hit for avg., get on base, move around the bases and play defense. Jones does all those things. What makes you think he can hit for a solid average? Because he hit .283 in the minors? Those walk numbers don't exactly inspire confidence should he be unable to hit Major League pitching. League average for RF last year was .272/.340/.426 and Jones' career minor league line is .283/.360/.456. So basically, you're hoping a guy can maintain his minor league numbers against much tougher competition (completely unrealistic) just to stay above league average. No thanks. Trading Dye is trading one of the most productive outfielders in baseball since he came to Chicago. If you trade for a player with league-average upside then you're just wasting your own time. I'd rather get a guy who I won't be looking to move the next season even if he does do somewhat well. Otherwise, keep Dye, keep the 30+ HR and .500+ SLG, and when it comes time to collect a first round draft pick for him, select a guy with 3X the ceiling of Brandon Jones.

QUOTE (BearSox @ Nov 27, 2008 -> 01:02 PM) reading a reds board, they seem to really want Dye. The best trade idea I saw was Bailey and Dickerson for Dye. I like Dickerson, but I'd like him a whole lot more if he didn't K so much. As for Bailey, I'm still not excited about him. His number in the minors were never even all that impressive, IMO. If they threw in one more decent player/prospect, I'd be all for such a trade. I'd support a Bailey + Dickerson deal if the Sox feel that they can turn Bailey into something special. I'm not enamored with those K numbers either, but he might be someone to spin off elsewhere or platoon with Anderson (I'm still kind of curious about what Brian could do with some regular playing time). In terms of value though, the Reds and TB deals seem to make the most sense. When you're dealing with prospects it's almost always a crapshoot anyway, so I want to make sure we get a guy with the potential to make the type of impact for us in the future that Dye has made and will continue to make for someone next year. Reading the bit about Dusty wanting him is very encouraging. We need some of these people to fall in love with our players and trade real value for them. It seems like teams want to horde their prospects, but we can't let them do that if we're going to be trading some of our best players.

QUOTE (beck72 @ Nov 27, 2008 -> 07:18 AM) Just as an aside to Brandon Jones, ATL may look at him like the Sox with Josh Fields prior to 2008. Trading a year too late is far worse than trading a year early. in 2007 in AA and AAA- .295/.367/.490 in 2008 in AAA-.260/.343/.405 [and .252/.295/.370 in the bigs]. Jones doesn't show much improvement in 2009 and his stock will drop dramatically, ala Fields. Jones is supposed to hit for a solid avg. and get on base, even if he doesn't hit for power. That would be a good fit going forward, esp as he can hit from the left side Here's a link to Prospects blog that had Jones 3rd prior to 2008 season, behind both Heyward and Schafer. I like the defense comment-and the scrappy approach to hitting. Doesn't that sound like Kenny's type of guy http://diamondcutter.wordpress.com/2008/01...atlanta-braves/ I doubt Fields stock has dropped that much. He was hurt last year. He still has 40HR power and a very strong arm. Those guys don't grow on trees. Dye loves it here. If he goes elsewhere and doesn't like the fit he may decline his 2010 mutual option, but if we don't trade him we've got him in the middle of our order for two years, probably the last as DH, and then we get Type A comp after that. No offense, but I really hate the idea of giving up Jermaine Dye for crap like Brandon Jones and company. If you trade Jermaine, make sure you get at least one guy who has a shot at becoming a long-term solution somewhere. Get a corner OF with power potential, or a legit CF and not some tweener, or a SP prospect who is expected to become a #3 or better. Brandon Jones? I'd rather take a shot at bringing back Griffey to take over for JD for a year or two, or sign Juan Rivera or something. The guy is a career .283 hitter in the minor leagues and he struck out over 100 times per season in '07 and '08. For a corner OF with no power, yuck. Ryan Sweeney was a much better player and we felt he didn't fit, so I highly doubt Jones does anything for the Sox.

QUOTE (Jimmywins1 @ Nov 26, 2008 -> 09:20 PM) I'm thankful that we have a GM with some balls. I don't know what I'd do if we had some one like Bavasi/Sabean running the show. Or the Angels. Think of all we could've gotten for guys like Dallas McPherson, Brandon Wood, and co. There is no reason to believe Kenny would have sat on his hands over Miguel Cabrera last year like the Angels did. Kenny tried as hard as he could, but we didn't have the bullets (although I'm glad we didn't do that deal because we would have lost Johnny Danks, who is already better than the entire package the Tigers offered IMO).

We got Thome around Thanksgiving after the '05 season and last year we got Scott Linebrink for Thanksgiving.

QUOTE (BearSox @ Nov 26, 2008 -> 08:13 PM) Imagine if you could fuse Sonnanstine and Jackson into one pitcher. Damn, talk about an ACE. Someone with the pure overpowering stuff of Jackson to go along with the finesse and control of Sonnanstine would be one damn good pitcher. You'd basically be talking about the right-handed CC Sabathia, being someone who can hit his spots and change speeds on pretty much everything, and has the ability to gear it up in the high-90's to blow people away if he feels like it.

QUOTE (Wanne @ Nov 26, 2008 -> 09:08 PM) Or Tommy Hanson. Escobar and Hanson would be pretty nice. Throw in Gorkys and Reyes and the Braves can have Javy, Dye, Bobby, and Kenny's own son - literally, he's in our organization.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Nov 26, 2008 -> 03:09 PM) Mauer would hit 2 here, but... Mauer-Morneau > TCQ-Dye TCQ>God>Mauer>Morneau>Dye

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 26, 2008 -> 03:21 PM) Javy has sucked 4 of the last 5 years. A GM counting on Javy "hitting his ceiling" better have a resume ready. He's underperformed much of his career, but he's "fooled" Brian Cashman, Kenny Williams, and whoever was D'Backs GM when they traded for him. The point is, Javy's ceiling is high and his floor is where he is. IMO, Sonnanstine's ceiling was what he did last year, and his floor is somewhere in Triple A. Edit: People getting excited over the possibility of acquiring Andy Sonnanstine are probably the same people who got all excited after Lance Broadway's start against the Royals during '07 garbage time.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 26, 2008 -> 11:27 AM) 2008 AS 13-9 4.38 ERA 1.29 WHIP .277 BAA 2 post season wins 400,000k salary JV 12-16 4.67 ERA 1.32 WHIP .263 BAA 0 post season wins 11,500,000 salary. If, as you say, Javy's downside is a #3 or #4 starter, this guy is already better than that and he makes peanuts. Javy has only had 1 year the last 5 with an ERA lower than AS posted in 2008. Could you imagine what Javy's ERA was if he had to face Boston and NY as much as Tampa pitchers do? I don't see how any team can watch Javy pitch and think they are going to get a guy who is going to be anything but average at best when all the results are in, at a price which is a lot more than average. I hope KW can find someone who thinks Javy will put it all together consistently for them. No, see that's the thing. Andy isn't better than Javy, at all, and if you adjust for park I'm sure their numbers are a lot closer. Basically, Javy had a bad year. We all saw in 2007 what Javy can do in a good year. We all have seen what Javy's ceiling is. In his first year, Sonnanstine has already surpassed his ceiling IMO. When the league adjusts to him he's going to suck, and his stuff is so poor that unlike Javy he's not going to have to the stuff to keep him out there. Look at that BAA, watch the guy pitch, and tell me he's better than Javy. Javy has been doing his thing in the Majors since 1998, and Javy's struggles are mainly because the opposition just waits on him to throw a lot of pitches and start leaving his offspeed stuff up in the zone. Andy Sonnanstine got away with hanging his offspeed stuff every single time he pitched against us last year, and as soon as our hitters took the right approach against him, he started getting hit and then was pulled. He's not going to get away with that next year IMO.

QUOTE (BearSox @ Nov 26, 2008 -> 11:36 AM) That's fine and dandy, but simple fact is the Sonnanstine does not have good stuff, at all, and I will bet anyone that he will have a worse season then Javy next year. Sonnanstine simply had a good year, but I'd be shocked if he ever repeats his 08 preformance. Maybe his first year in the NL, but that's all. I'm with you there 100%. Of all the young pitchers who broke out last year, Sonnanstine would be the most likely in my mind to regress, and regress severely. If I'm in the Rays FO and someone wants to deal better talent for him, I'd do that in a heartbeat and keep Edwin Jackson. I read on another board where someone was trying to put forth the argument that Sonnanstine is better than Jackson, basically saying that Jackson was "lucky" because of his poor BB rate and that Jackson benefitted from superb Rays defense. Sonnanstine OTOH wasn't a recipient of luck because he had control. I would easily counter that saying both pitchers benefitted from the Rays superb defense, and that if anyone was "lucky" it was Sonnanstine. Jackson posted the numbers he did because his walk rate actually held him back. Jackson got by on great stuff and bad control, nothing more than that. He's still developing, and if anyone is lucky in regards to Jackson, it is the rest of the league that is lucky Jackson hasn't figured it out yet. If Jackson does, he's a top of the rotation guy. Meanwhile Sonnanstine was lucky to face overaggressive hitters who couldn't sit back and look to go up the middle or the other way against him. Sonnanstine was lucky that his smoke-and-mirrors junk pitching fooled Major League hitters in his first season because he had no problems dropping below the hitting speed. As soon as the league adjusts to his garbage, he's a 5.50 ERA waiting to happen, even pitching in a dome with great defense behind him.

Big ups for posting this! I read a couple pages and then had to stop because it's too hilarious. Here are a couple examples: and and finally And P.S. could someone PM me the orginal title of this thread? I want to know.

In case anyone is interested, here are some Reds fans' takes on the possible deal. I read through some of it and it seems like they'd welcome the deal. Personally I don't know how I'd feel about it. If Kenny and his people think they can make whatever changes are necessary to turn Bailey around then I'd back it. I wonder who the other player is though? Freel would be a good guess. He makes $4M next year and is a FA after that. Part of me would like the idea, part of me would hate it. Freel has had injury issues and appears to have some alcohol issues too. Then again, if he could stay healthy and put up a nice year at 2B or in CF, he could end up a Type A given his good year in '08 (albeit in limited playing time). Getting a future top of the rotation starter in Bailey and Type A comp in '10 for Dye would be an amazing steal for the Sox, but then again we could also be talking about a major bust in Bailey who s***s the bed in the Majors and 1/4 of a season from an overrated alcoholic utility player. Lots of risk here on both ends.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 25, 2008 -> 04:13 PM) In the world where he still was pre-arbitration and made $395k this year. I see that his performance-to-cost ratio is very favorable, but I just don't know how anyone can deal real talent for him. With someone like Javy, yeah he makes a lot more money, but you still have the upside of a #2-like season with the downside of a #3/#4-type season. Sonnanstine just strikes me as the type of guy who is always on the edge of disaster, every single game, every single situation. At least Javy has the ability to take over a game and dominate. I just don't know how any team can watch Andy Sonnanstine pitch and say, "You know what? I'm gonna go ahead and trade one of my best pitching prospects, a guy with twice the ceiling, for a junkballer who can spot his junk. That sounds like a great idea." Paul Byrd is capable of doing the same thing and doesn't cost any top talent, just tha cheddah. I don't even know if Byrd is a Type B free agent.