Kenny Hates Prospects

QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ Nov 15, 2008 -> 03:43 PM) If by giving away you mean for one of the key components of the 2005 championship team, then yeah I agree. Carl Everett never got on base enough to win us a championship.

QUOTE (Stan Bahnsen @ Nov 15, 2008 -> 03:40 PM) Jeremy Reed? Wells and Rauch had moderate success in the NL, but haven't been anything special. Jeremy Reed is a future Hall of Famer, no doubt about it.

Don't believe everything Phil "Brandon McCarthy is a proven workhorse" and "Juan Silverio is a man-child" Rogers says. I think we all like Link - why not? - but I don't believe the closer hype, nor do I believe the Sox will decide against arbitration. This article from ESPN which I believe was posted here at some point explains how all that wonderful change Mr. Obama is carrying in his sleigh will affect sports. There is the belief that players will sign much sooner in free agency this year so we might see more players ink before the arbitration deadline. If so, OC might make this decision for us.

QUOTE (Milkman delivers @ Nov 15, 2008 -> 11:17 AM) Agreed completely with the bold part. I was also going to include Beane, but I didn't feel like dealing with the hundreds of posters who just simply hate the man. Like I said, it was all off the top of my head. I'd probably say KW is in or near the top three in baseball, but definitely not sports. Beane really does a great job. I think he gets the hate because people make him the target of poor and/or stupid Baseball Prospectus articles and predictions, plus they think he somehow allows or has allowed his players to freely use steriods. The BP stuff, he doesn't operate like that. He looks for undervalued players and likes players with plate discipline, just like every team in baseball. He has some great baseball people over there and it's not like his scouts sit there running numbers and formulas, they go to the games and watch the players like everyone else. And about the roids, it's hard to say who did and did not know, and who did and did not "look the other way," but I think the whole thing is a lot bigger than an east or west coast thing so it's stupid to point fingers at one front office guy and let another front office guy off the hook. When you just look at what Beane does, you have to admit that like Schuerholz, he usually ends up getting the right value out of the right players at the right times. He works under a lot of restrictions over there. And part of the reason Kenny is so great at his job is that Kenny is very good at evaluating players as well and also has to do it under restrictions. Whereas Kenny doesn't always sell off his players at the right time, he cannot always do that because he has to contend. Both operate under restrictions in the draft as you usually don't see either team nabbing top Boras guys who fall for huge amounts and Major League contracts. They instead have to look for the right guys at the right prices. Basically the main differences between the two are the Kenny gets higher payroll but can't afford to just dump a guy whenever he wants because that could seriously affect ticket sales, no can he afford to completely rebuild. Kenny has to contend and keep the fans coming post-2005 while the pressure on Beane isn't as serious. And the biggest difference is the quality of the farm system. The Sox haven't put the kind of effort into it that they need to, but that appears to be changing. Both are great GM's though, and I think if you put Kenny in Beane's situation he'd do very well, just like if you put Beane in Kenny's situation he'd do very well. *Edit: Also about Epstein who you mentioned earlier, I don't really consider Epstein because he doesn't have the type of restrictions that other guys have to work under. He's really got it all. He can afford to make dumb signings like Julio Lugo and not be hurt because of it. He can afford to spend a s***load on payroll and free agents, plus sign top prospects who fall in the draft, plus sink lots of money into scouting and player development, plus negotiate with Boras clients, plus spend $50M just to negotiate with Daisuke Matsuzaka. The only requirements are that he must contend every year with the Yankees, but with all those windows open, I think there are definitely other GM's capable of succeeding in that situation.

QUOTE (santo=dorf @ Nov 15, 2008 -> 11:08 AM) Stoneman has handed out some really silly contracts, but has shown a really good strength in building bullpens, including other teams' bullpens by leaving 4 catchers on the 40 man at one time and losing guys like Jenks, Turnbow, and Joel Peralta. Yep. His problem was that he wasn't very good at identifying the players he thought would contribute in a big way and then dealing those he thought wouldn't. Instead he pretty much held onto everyone as was noted above. Not a lot of trades for him despite a great farm system.

QUOTE (Milkman delivers @ Nov 15, 2008 -> 10:52 AM) In baseball alone, I'd have to say Epstein (as much as I hate to admit it), Gillick, and Schuerholz. I guess Schuerholz no longer counts, but then arguments can easily be made for Jocketty and Stoneman. That's just off the top of my head, and that's just in baseball. To say he's a top 3 GM in sports is quite a stretch and very Hawk Harrelson-esque. Missed the "sports" part. Yeah I wouldn't say that, but in baseball? He could be. Just off the top of my head, Gillick is the one who made the Floyd deal. Kenny hasn't had a blunder like that yet. Jocketty is possible. Stoneman? What about that GMJ contract? That was one of the worst FA deals over the last 3-4 years, possibly more. A career 4th OF coming off a steriod-aided career year in the best hitting park in baseball, and he gets that kind of security? Everybody knew that was a horrible deal. The only recent deals off the top of my head that I can think of that were as bad or worse are Pierre, Alfonso Soriano, and Barry Zito. Kenny has always been pretty smart with Jerry's money. His biggest screw-up was probably Contreras, but Contreras pitched well in '06 and the first half of '08, and could come back mid-season '09. Then his deal is up. Plus if he's healthy it's a below-market contract. Edit: Jason Schmidt's contract was another one. Still, GMJ's deal is right up there near the top. Billy Beane is pretty darn good for running a small market team. I'd put him up there as well.

QUOTE (Milkman delivers @ Nov 15, 2008 -> 10:40 AM) No way. I like him and all, but no way. Who is better then? Kenny hasn't made any huge Kazmir-for-Zambrano type errors and he's gotten a lot of worth out of his poor minor league organization through trade. He's made some mistakes, like Cunningham for Richar and Daniel Cortes for MacDougal, but he hasn't given up anyone who has gone on to become very, very good, at least thus far. He's made some of the best moves in baseball over the last few years, most of them smaller at first.

QUOTE (beck72 @ Nov 15, 2008 -> 10:27 AM) Thanks. The sox scouts have done a good job of recognizing talent that hadn't been consistent [Danks, Floyd, Thornton, et al] and making a run at them when they became available for a decent price in terms of talent. Now that the draft scouting department seems to have improved [with Poreda, Beckham etc looking like impact players], KW doesn't have to rely on project players making big improvement jumps. Marquez and Nunez seem like the project types, who need some refining and work before they can help the sox. Yet the sox seem to be striking more of a balance on how they get their players, through draft, big and small trades, and free agents. Since about 2003, Danks, Masset, and Gio were the only acquisitions prospect/project-wise that I can think of who were actually rated very well by publications current at the time. Danks has been awesome, Masset was mostly a bust although he should fit as a LR type eventually, and Gio was bombed in Oakland, although he's still young and may end up being a good pitcher. So aside from Danks, most of our success came from deals that were said to be non-events or bad for the Sox. We picked up Uribe the bust for Miles, Thornton the bust for Borchard, Floyd the bust for Freddy, etc. I trust our guys, and yes, it appears we're improving quite a bit in the draft and through international free agency - I mean how could we not improve after discovering the scandal and dumping those assholes?

The scariest part about leaning towards Anderson in CF - even though I'd support him as the everyday starter - is the fact that he would be made to compete for the job in ST. With Taveras, if we acquired him, Anderson would probably be in the competition on paper, but Taveras would basically be given the job. That doesn't scare me because at least Taveras can play CF. If you go with Anderson then that means you're going with an Anderson/Owens competition in ST, which is particularly frightening because all Jerry Owens has to do is steal one base and stay healthy through camp in order for Ozzie to hand him the job outright. I mean holy s***, Owens was supposed to beat out Carlos f***ing Quentin last year before he got hurt. I've said this before and I'll say it again: if I could be GM of the Sox for one day, the first and probably the most important thing I would do would be to trade Jerry Owens somewhere where we wouldn't be able to get a hold of him again. I'd be the only GM in MLB history to trade a player for a $20 gift card to Best Buy, and I'd do it within the division, or maybe Japan for some sushi, or to Nigeria for a list of email addresses. PS I will be livid if the Sox end up leaving a prospect like Link exposed to the Rule-5 in order to keep Owens on the roster.

I think Kenny is serious about Fields, not so sure about the other guys. I certainly HOPE he is not serious about Owens. I'd rather pick up Mark Kotsay for one year or something if he's not a Type A, assuming Kenny doesn't want Anderson out there.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Nov 15, 2008 -> 03:06 AM) I don't think the odds are very high of getting Rasmus at all (0.005% chance). Ankiel and Ludwick are the ones being shopped... St. Louis doesn't sound like a fit. I don't want either of those two guys. Kenny should be on the phone with TB, Texas, LAA (if they fail to sign Tex), the Dodgers who always like to make stupid moves for veterans because they hate their prospects, Washington possibly, Atlanta, etc.

QUOTE (beck72 @ Nov 15, 2008 -> 06:02 AM) I'm glad to see I didn't go ballistic over the trade. Most people were just as upset over losing Freddy too [though not to the extent of wanting to do bodily harm to KW over the BMac trade] For the most part, Kenny Williams has done a very solid job trading for players and trading away those in the sox organization. Why go crazy over a trade that may not make much sense in the short term? Though KW has made some misses, he has gotten far more in return than he's given up via trade. With a better draft team in place, KW will only be helped by having better prospects in the system, and not having to solely rely on getting other teams castoffs or overpaying via trade. that's why the Swisher trade should be kept in perspective. The sox seem to be making a move to get a high salaried player in-someone who can help the next few years--I'd hazard to guess who can hit near the top of the order. Great post. I'd like to add that when most of us here talk about potential trades and rumored trades, when we bring up prospects we bring up guys that we've read about. We get the prospect listings while the Sox scouts actually watch these guys play. Obviously we weren't going to get a Phil Hughes type out of Swisher, but there were comments suggesting we should've gotten like Melky Cabrera or Ian Kennedy or something. Who knows if the Sox even like either of those guys? Just because some publication says Marquez right now would rank somewhere in the 20's in the Yankees system as a prospect doesn't mean there are 20-some odd better players in their system. This is a clear buy-low deal for Kenny, and while it may not work out in the end, I trust Kenny and the Sox scouts over Joe Blow of Baseball America or whatever publication would make it out like Marquez isn't a very good player. I also trust the Sox staff over Yankees fans who go "ZOMG!!! i saw this Markqez dood pich n he SUXXX!!!! hez gotta k/9 of 3!!!OMG whatta steel billd $$$$MAN a monumint 4 dis1!!!!"

I think if the Cards were willing to deal Rasmus for pitching then they'd already have Peavy. Texas might want to upgrade over Murphy, who is not very good and a product of Arlington, and/or get a DH to replace Byrd. Dye would hit the living s*** out of the ball in Texas. Seriously, he might hit .320-45-140 over there. He's a warm weather guy that loves to turn on the ball, and there would be a lot of screamers hit out of that IF. Texas also wants a veteran starter who strikes people out. Javy??? They're also in the market for a closer. Bobby??? They've got some nice stuff to include in a package without giving up their top guys like Engle Beltre, Elvis Andrus, and Neftali Feliz or Smoak or Main (s*** they've got a lot on their farm). I'd take a package centered around CF Julio Borbon, SP Eric Hurley, and SP Neil Ramirez for both Dye and Vazquez. Maybe even add a piece and pick up Marlon Byrd for CF in a deal to bridge the gap? Lots of possibilities there. Also, if the Angels pick up a 3B and look to deal Figgins, I'd be very interested in a Paulie for Figgins + Morales deal if the Sox think Morales could hit like he's supposed to. Morales could thrive here. Figgins would fit for one year in CF, bridging the gap between whatever studly CF prospect we pick up (in my dream world anyway) and supplying us with picks when he leaves. The Sox might have to add something there to make a deal work (if the Angels were even interested that is) but I think Paulie is worth more than Figgins.

QUOTE (SoxFan562004 @ Nov 13, 2008 -> 05:05 PM) I trust KW, but that would be put in serious jeopardy if he gives anything of value up for Taveras Same here. I'd deal Broadway, McCulloch, all that garbage for him as a rebound candidate, but nothing good. If we do get Taveras I want it to be under the pretext that he has to compete with Anderson for a job in ST. If the Rockies even mention Shelby I want Kenny to slam down the phone in a fit of rage.

QUOTE (RockRaines @ Nov 13, 2008 -> 05:03 PM) Read it where? How do you know it was real? It was in one of the papers. Said the Sox and Rangers had a deal worked out of Carter for Otsuka but then Otsuka failed his physical. The Rangers then ended up cutting him.

QUOTE (Paint it Black @ Nov 13, 2008 -> 04:59 PM) Taveras...really? Can I not have the major league equivalent of Jerry Owens There's a good chance we get him, he's one of Kenny's guys. I just hope to f***ing God that Kenny doesn't trade Brandon Allen for him. He almost traded Chris Carter for another one of his guys, Akinori Otsuka, last year prior to the Quentin deal. When I read that I almost had a heart attack.

QUOTE (DBAHO @ Nov 13, 2008 -> 01:35 PM) Murphy could play anywhere from 2B/3B/LF/RF IMHO, depending on how he handles those infield positions defensively, and what the Sox do in other areas. He's exactly the type of young hitter I think KW should be targeting though. One that can hit around .300, good strike zone judgement, and enough pop to probably hit around 20-25HR's in his prime (especially at the Cell). Sanchez really tailed off in the 2nd half of last season IIRC. I'd still be interested possibly in him though, but I'd want a stud prospect from the Giants if I was going to give up Dye. I'd have no problem with Murphy, but if it's Jenks we're dealing I'd like to see Kenny aim a little higher, like Fernando Martinez + Jon Niese or something. I just really don't want to see Kenny sell low on Jenks or settle for a "good deal" on Jenks. I want Kenny to start asking for these ridiculous packages that teams like the Orioles ask for their complimentary players. Jenks is a guy that actually is worth a ton. For Dye or Vazquez I think Murphy could be a nice centerpiece, although I'd prefer a CF prospect if at all possible since those are so hard to come by. Texas has a buttload of those, if they'd be interested in any of our guys. Atlanta has a couple, although they're rumored to be dealing my favorite one (Gorkys) for Peavy, plus Schafer is coming off a suspension for roids and Heyward is supposed to be untouchable.

QUOTE (SoxFan562004 @ Nov 13, 2008 -> 04:35 PM) OK, this is a basic, down and dirty quick stat, but an OPS+ of 100 is an average hitter, league and ball park adjusted, with ever number above or below 100 basicaly meaning the player is a percentage point better than average. http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/swishni01.shtml 05-07 Swisher's OPS + was 111.25, including his 92 from 08, meaning he was 11.25% better than an average player http://www.baseball-reference.com/u/uribeju01.shtml over the same years Uribe's OPS was 77, 23% below average. You can make the argument that Swisher was a 34% better player over those years, and that's including 08. What does that mean? That Swisher is a 34% better hitter than Uribe? He should be. Uribe is a fringe starting SS while Swisher is supposed to be a corner OF/1B. I don't care what anyone says, Nick Swisher had one year that is the type of year you want from a corner OF/1B. Everything else was sub-par.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 13, 2008 -> 04:23 PM) For that quality of defense, yes you're going to get Ripped. If Thome goes then I won't complain, but you don't sign Dunn to play the field. Not unless you're just suicidal. I wouldn't mind Dunn butchering balls in LF in '09 so long as it led to him taking over for Thome in 2010 as a lefty DH.

QUOTE (Tony82087 @ Nov 13, 2008 -> 03:19 PM) Whats semi ironic about all this is Williams is usually on the other end of these trades, buying low on a player that has fallen out of favor..... He's doing that with Marquez and also Betemit if he feels he can man 2B. I feel a lot more confident about Betemit/Getz/Nix competition than a Getz/Nix competition.

QUOTE (whitesoxfan101 @ Nov 13, 2008 -> 03:08 PM) My problem isn't even this trade. Although we did sell low, getting rid of Swish in general is something I have no problem with. The problem is the fact we traded what was left of the farm to get him last winter. Even had we got the Swish we expected to get in that trade, we overpaid. But considering what we got out of Swish and got for him today, that trade is perhaps the worst one in KW's tenure considering what we gave up (nothing) in other bad KW trades in the past. There's a good chance that farm system gets replenished quite a bit over the next few weeks. The Swisher trade was horrible - up to this point - but lets wait and see how these other guys turn out first. Sweeney isn't a big loss and Gio and DLS haven't done anything in the Majors yet.

QUOTE (sircaffey @ Nov 13, 2008 -> 03:07 PM) Marquez does not have top of the rotation potential, by all accounts. The scouting report I just read said that. Not a true ace, but a #2. That's top of the rotation potential. Of course he may not reach that, but the Sox Major League scouts have done a fantastic job over the last several years (apart from the guy we just traded) so I see no reason to discount the height of Marquez's ceiling. Remember how we all laughed about Kenny saying Danks and Floyd had the potential to be top of the rotation guys?

QUOTE (fathom @ Nov 13, 2008 -> 03:06 PM) In the grand scheme of things, let's all hope this trade isn't a sign that the Sox are looking to lower payroll (rumors are out there that a lot of owners are in a lot of financial trouble with current economy). That's possible, but the moves that take place over this offseason are going to be in direct response to the emergence of Q, Alexei, Danks, and Floyd. Now that we have the foundation to go younger we can afford to do so. There still could be issues with the payroll, but I don't exactly expect a firesale here. Swish, Jenks, Dye, and Vazquez could bring us an overall return that gives us a lot to cheer about over the next 6-7 years.

I like this trade a lot. This is exactly what I want to see Kenny keep doing. Got get those undervalued starters with top of the rotation potential. Betemit could be a real nice find as well, I've always liked him. At worst he's a more than capable UT player.

http://cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/up/player/pop...&src=sports ^There's an interview with the guy. Anyone know what he's got in his arsenal?