Kenny Hates Prospects

Wow. Okay, so we're getting more then, right? Right???

QUOTE (SoxFanForever @ Nov 13, 2008 -> 09:01 AM) I think you are putting a lot of faith in a guy who has had 2 or 3 professional fights (did that first one in XC or whatever count?). I don't think Brock will be nearly as impressive as you are hoping. I'm not a Randy fan by any means. however, I think he will come up wtih a gameplan to handle Lesnar. Brock has had 3 fights. The first was for K-1 Heroes before they formed the Dream promotion after Pride was sold. Lesnar was supposed to fight Hong Man Choi but Choi got taken out of the bout by the CSAC so Brock ended up destorying a judo guy named Min-Soo Kim. Then he went to the UFC, lost to Mir, and beat Herring. It's not that I'm hoping for Brock to win, it's that I just can't see how Randy can beat him. Brock is better at everything except experience, applying and defending submissions, technique on the feet, and probably cardio in the 4th and 5th rounds of a fight. But the way I see it, Brock's power and reach will nullify Randy's technique; Brock's size, strength, and continued development of his submission defense will remove any chance of Randy subbing him; and Brock's physical attributes combined with his wrestling advantage, power advantage, and reach advantage will make it so hard on Randy that he can't get the fight into the later rounds where he'll be able to fully utilize his cardio and experience advantages. I'll say it another way: if Lesnar had another year of development under him and 3 more fights worth of experience, this fight would be looked at as a mismatch in favor of Lesnar. The only reason the lines are close on this fight is because Brock is so new to the sport that people are questioning his worthiness as far as a title shot goes. I mean, just think about this fight in your head. Think about a guy the size of Lesnar, with the power of Lesnar, with the athletic ability of Lesnar, along with the wrestling credentials and cardio. Just try to picture Randy doing to Brock what he did to Sylvia. I can't. There are maybe 4 guys at HW right now that at this very moment I would definitely take to beat Lesnar: Barnett and Velasquez on the feet if they could stop his takedowns, Nog on the ground, and Fedor pretty much wherever he wants since he's a machine. There are other guys with the skills to beat him either standing or on the mat, like Antonio Silva, even Brett Rogers with a lucky punch, Mir in a rematch, Werdum, Carwin, Gonzaga, Kongo, Overeem, Arlovski, etc. but I doubt any of those guys could stuff his takedowns or survive the onslaught long enough to pull off a sub. Lesnar is hyped a ton, but he really is pretty f***ing awesome. I think he's gonna maul Randy.

QUOTE (DBAHO @ Nov 13, 2008 -> 09:14 AM) Ok lets get away from Tampa Bay for a minute, considering there are 28 other teams in the MLB. What are some other teams that would be interested in JD? Philly - If they lose Burrell, although they may stick with Jenkins and Werth in the corners. I'd be looking for a package built around Carrasco, their stud pitching prospect, who's almost MLB ready. Mets - They're looking to upgrade in a corner OF spot. I'd look for a package built around Daniel Murphy, who could play 2B or 3B for us. Giants - They desperately want a big bat in the lineup. They'd probably offer Sanchez + something. That something would have to be a pretty damn good prospect, because they don't have a lot else that interests me at the MLB level. Dodgers - If they lose Manny, they'd want a big bat to replace him. They'd probably offer Pierre + something, but I'd be after Matt Kemp. I don't know about Sanchez. He's pretty damn good. If I had him I wouldn't deal him straight up for Dye. There was a ST game televised last year that was Danks against Sanchez and it looked like they were almost mirror images of each other. Danks is better, but Sanchez isn't all that far behind IMO. I think targeting Murphy all depends on whether or not the Sox sign Viciedo. If they do, then you figure Viciedo/Fields at 3B in '09 and beyond, Ramirez at SS in '09 and beyond, and Beckham at 2B in 2010 and beyond. If Viciedo doesn't sign then things change a lot because now you just have Fields as a question mark at 3B. Either Beckham or Alexei could play 3B, SS, or 2B so then that opens things up for a new addition. BTW, WTF are the Sox doing with all these stud or potential stud infielders? I thought they were supposed to hate that! And Brandon Allen could be ready for 2010 too depending how he does in Birmingham next year.

QUOTE (beautox @ Nov 13, 2008 -> 07:40 AM) From what i've read hes been sitting mid 90's; they've been tweaking his mechanics and repertoire, i have a creeping suspicion they're trying to make him less of a thrower and more of a pitcher like jenks; that or he is off the "supplements"? That's better then if he's still in the mid-nineties. I read something somewhere that he had been working in like the 90-92 range. That would scare me. That said, I trust Kenny's people. If Homer is available and they think he will be a very good Major League pitcher then I'd make that deal.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Nov 13, 2008 -> 07:27 AM) If I was Friedman, I wouldn't dare take on Octavio Dotel OR his contract. I wouldn't feel very confident about acquiring Wasserman, who wasn't good enough to pitch for the White Sox...a team with multiple issues in its bullpen down the stretch who essentially relied on DJ Carrasco, a Japanese castoff, for much of a 3-4 week stretch when the likes of Wasserman, MacDougal, Russell, etc., could NOT be counted on. I understand dumping salary...but getting rid of Wheeler and Bradford for about the same amount as Dotel...well, I wouldn't do that. Neither Wheeler nor Bradford are capable of being closers, but I don't think Dotel is either, based on his career track record (before injuries) and how he did in the majority of high pressure situations in July/August/September of 2008. I also can't imagine they would give up their #3 RHSP prospect in this deal at all...sure, Niemann's available, maybe even McGee, but Davis isn't going anywhere unless we significantly sweeten the pot. Just because they have a lot of depth right now doesn't guarantee there won't be injuries or performance issues...look at the depth we had in 2000-2001 ("waves and waves" of pitching were on the horizon, a Braves-like dynasty was a common description) and how quickly all of it went south. Just sit on that depth until someone gets REALLY desperate and they make an offer you can't refuse. There's nothing FORCING the Rays to move their depth yet...they have plenty of time to wait for the best offer/s. If I were Friedman I wouldn't have been all crazy about acquiring Grant Balfour, JP Howell, Dan Wheeler, or Trevor Miller among others, and I certainly wouldn't have given Troy Percival a bunch of money to close. I think it's safe to say Friedman - or anyone else for that matter - would look at Dotel as an upgrade over him. The only guy in the Rays pen (from the right handed side) that Dotel might not be an upgrade over is Balfour, but he still hasn't proven himself over a full season. I think he's turned the corner and will be very good for quite a while, but he hasn't proven he can get over a bad stretch in the Majors yet. Dotel as a setup man with Balfour closing or Dotel closing with Balfour as a setup man is better than anything they've got. I also don't think any GM would take the Sox bullpen situation into consideration at all. They'd look at a guy like Wassermann, see what he brings, see his excellent minor league career, excellent Majoe League 2007 and very poor Major League 2008, and then make a decision that way. Those other names don't matter to anyone aside from Sox fans. I mentioned Wassermann because if you look at who is in their bullpen - Howell and Miller from the left side and Bradford from the right side - he likes those guys. If he feels Wassermann, who has just as much ability as Bradford minus the experience and $3.5M contract, can be another Bradford, then why wouldn't he have at least some interest? You kind of contradict yourself here. You ask why would they trade a top pitching prospect yet also talk about how easy prospects can blow up in your face. I don't know if they'd be willing to shop Davis, but they want another RH bat, need a DH, and have about 2 years more to contend before they have to start selling some guys off, unless their fans start showing up during the regular season. Ask yourself, who is out there? Think they'll spend $13M+ on Pat Burrell for 3 years or more? $25M+ on Manny Ramirez? Think another team is going to trade their young, affordable slugger for prospects? There's maybe Hermida or Francouer out there, who will be getting paid in arbitration and still haven't broken out. All things considered, Dye just may be the best thing actually available that fits their needs. The prospects are speculation on my part, but Kenny has no fifth starter and will apparently trade Javy, so it makes sense that he would target Major League-ready SP prospects who have the potential to be pretty good.

QUOTE (zenryan @ Nov 12, 2008 -> 08:54 PM) When did Lesnar get sloppy on Herring's back(other than the rodeo riding thing)? He had Herring in a turtle position and was just pounding him. You dont need to always go for the hooks to control someone. With Brock's size and wrestling ability, it will be hard for anyone to reverse that position. TKO or sub? Couture has no submission game. Agree completely with the first part. Not every fighter has to sink in a RNC at the first opportunity. In that fight it was more dangerous to Brock to go all out for the finish. Brock needed that fight in order to prove that he wasn't some over-hyped fake wrestler, so with the stakes being so high he opted to take his time, play it safe, and use his dominant wrestling to overwhelm Heath. As for Randy's BJJ, the guy supposedly does well for himself rolling with Jacare so he must be pretty good, but going against a MW is not the same as going against Lesnar. I don't see Randy pulling off any leg or foot locks at any point in this fight and I don't see him sinking in any kind of choke around Lesnar's giant neck either. He's not going to pull anything fancy like a gogoplata or even a triangle choke. No flying armbars either, and I doubt Randy is strong enough to catch him in a kimura. I guess maybe an armbar might work but I highly doubt it given Lesnar's superior wrestling advantage and improvement on the ground. I guess I'd just love to know how those who think Randy will win by sub actually see Lesnar getting subbed. Randy isn't Frank Mir, and even if he was, Brock isn't going to be dumb enough to just stand up in his guard again. If the fight ends up on the ground, Brock will tighten things up a lot. Besides, the only guys Randy has ever subbed in his career are Mike Van Arsdale and Ludvig Borga the pro-wrestler. If Randy subs Lesnar, and you happen to for some reason be outside at the time, go ahead and dive under the nearest shelter because it's going to start raining cats.

I don't think Bartolo is going to be coming here. I remember reading a couple articles about the Bartolo/Sox situation last year and it seemed Kenny was more than a little bit pissed off by the whole thing. IIRC the Sox offered him some kind of contract and he basically completely ignored them, didn't even bother to respond. Besides, Bartolo is a fat piece of s*** anyway. If we're going the reclamation project route I'd rather have Freddy. I don't care how much velocity the guy has lost, the guy knows how to pitch and showed Sox fans in that last regular season game against the Tigers before the playoff that he still has some big game balls. As long as his arm stays attached I would trust him against any team in any situation - so long as it's not the first inning or against a team with a sub-.500 record.

Didn't Bailey lose a ton off his FB? For a guy who was always a thrower, not a pitcher, that would scare me.

Garza is probably about as untouchable as they come right now. As has been mentioned a lot around here, the Rays have a small window to contend unless their fans start packing the place. In this economy, and with the history of attendance in Florida, that seems unlikely. The Rays may be able to add some to the payroll, but they're not going to be trading cheap, very effective Major League players to do so. Dye or Jenks could be fits there since the Rays have the holes as well as the prospects to trade, but if it is a Dye deal we might have to take on another contract. I brought up Chad Bradford before and I think he could be a possibility in a Dye deal as well as Edwin Jackson. The Rays will unload Jackson's salary before paying him arbitration because they have Price waiting in the wings, so that's a couple million or so. If you add Bradford then it might get it up to around $5-6M that the Rays would be sending over. Regardless, I think we'd have to get creative. This is what I think would be the best TB deal for both parties: TB trades about $11-12M Dan Wheeler ($3.2M in '09, $3.5M in '10, $4M TO in '11 w/ $1M buyout) Chad Bradford ($3.5M in '09) Edwin Jackson ($3-4M in arbitration?) Wade Davis (minimum) Jeff Niemann (minimum) Sox trade about $18M Jermaine Dye ($11.5M in '09, $12M MO in '10 w/ $1M buyout) Octavio Dotel ($6M in '09) Ehren Wassermann (minimum) Why this works for Tampa: The Rays make two big improvements while only adding around $6-$7M in payroll. They get their DH/LF depending on park and RH #3/#5 hitter to put either in front of or behind Pena. Dotel gives them a closer if they want or he acts as a set-up man for Balfour (if they're leaning that direction). They hold on to Morlan as an added righty in their pen and break him in as a 6th inning guy. Wassermann gives them that sidearmer/slinger deceptive look they seem to love coming out of the pen if he makes the team. They also ditch Wheeler's contract. Meanwhile, this fits their short window of opportunity. If TB wants to win the WS, they're going to have to do it in the next two years unless their fans start showing up. Dotel is a FA after '09 and will bring them Type A comp. Dye is another high-probability Type A after '09, especially as a DH, or else he is on board below-market in 2010. Why this works for the Sox: This lets them trade Javy and gives them 3 SP to battle for two spots, with Niemann having the upside of a closer if he doesn't work out in the rotation. Bradford is solid and Wheeler is pretty much what you take in order to get a better package. He'd be a fine fit for the 6th inning and is someone the Sox can afford but the Rays probably won't be able to pretty soon. Sox bullpen: Jenks - 9th ® Linebrink - 8th ® Thornton - 8th (L) Bradford - 7th ® Richard/Poreda/Logan - 7th (L) Wheeler - 6th ® Carrasco/other SP candidate LR If the Sox then turn around and trade Jenks for other needs, and if they don't get back a reliever in the process, the bullpen becomes: Thornton - 9th (L) Linebrink - 8th ® Richard/Poreda/Logan - 8th (L) Bradford - 7th ® Poreda/Richard/Logan - 7th (L) Wheeler - 6th ® Carrasco/other SP candidate as a long reliever That would still be fine with me if we got back some pretty sweet prospects in a Jenks deal.

QUOTE (Fantl916 @ Nov 12, 2008 -> 02:44 PM) I really think all this Bobby Jenks talk is for not. I bet, much like DBAHO said, that the talks are for two significant pieces a la Murphy and Martinez for Jenks, and the Mets won't consider that unless they strike out on all the Free Agent closers. I am of the frame of mind that K-Rod is #1 on their list, and they'll make a run at signing him to a Francisco Cordero -like deal. If they miss on him they still have options like Wood, Hoffman, Fuentes, ect. I still think, even if they miss on all those guys, that they would be more inclined to offer something to the Rockies for Huston Street than trade for Jenks, if for no other reason than that they could probably get Street for a package built around Kunz and Neise, as opposed to one built around Muprhy and Martinez... I dunno, but i dont see Omar forking over significant pieces to his team unless he feels he has to Here's the thing though: If K-Rod wants 4 year at $15M per that is $60M over 4 years. Jenks, through arbitration, probably makes closer to $32-33M over that span, so that's something like a $27-28M difference right there. The bulk of the savings would come right now. Jenks for the next two years should be about $9M total compared to $30M for K-Rod. If you figure on spending that $30M on a #3 starter like Lowe at like $13M per and then devote the other $4M to signing about 4-5 top international prospects - because the Mets are always active in that area - then you add a hell of a lot more worth to of your organization over the next 2-4 years than a prospect such as Martinez is going to be able to provide. Besides, I don't want FMart anyway. Not as a centerpiece. Give me pitching first - starting pitching that is, not relievers because good starters have a fallback option as relievers whereas relivers have the fallback plan of Triple A - and then a toolsy CF prospect if they've got one. That's what I'd want for Jenks. (Edit: If the Sox can get some pitching and another CF prospect from another organization then adding Martinez would be fine with me. I just don't like the idea of not stocking up on SP if we're going to be trading veterans.) As far as the lower-end closers, the Mets have a recent history of looking to acquire the best players available. They traded for Johan, they traded for Delgado when he was still awesome, they signed Beltran, signed Wagner, signed Castillo when he was coming off a good year, etc. Minaya shoots pretty high, and I doubt he's the type of GM that would let a prospect get in the way of the player he really wants, sort of like Kenny. Besides, a GM like that probably doesn't survive very long in NY. If Minaya wants Jenks, he'll target Jenks and eventually offer what Jenks is worth. If Minaya sees FMart as a future franchise cornerstone then he might have some serious reservations, although he's not going to see his whole farm that way and there would still be room to work regardless.

^That's a lot to read, but this is a fun fight to try to break down. So many unknowns here and yet such a huge fight.

Okay, so this is a huge fight that should attract a lot of different sports fans from different groups, so I figured it deserves it's own thread. Please make your predictions on this fight below. I've thought about this fight a lot and I'm finally ready to give my analysis. Not that anyone cares, but more like others may want to disagree with me. I'm taking Lesnar. Here's my breakdown: Stand-up: Randy is the much more fluid striker, but he lacks Lesnar's power. I'm willing to bet that the majority of Lesnar's work for this camp has gone to his stand-up. The only way Randy can hurt him in the first three rounds, aside from making a critical error out of stupidity (which I think is something Brock got out of his system in the Mir fight) is by connecting on the feet. The problem is, Brock is going to have a big reach advantage and a huge power advantage. Brock isn't a sick Tim Sylvia either, nor is he a Gabe Gonzaga that can't go two rounds without gassing horribly, so he is not going to just stand in front of him and do nothing. Brock is going to circle, and as long as Brock can use his improved striking - because it will be improved - to push the pace and take control of the middle of the Octagon, Randy isn't going to get Brock panicking and backing up toward the cage. Unless Randy can get inside by faking a shot and then land a big enough punch to hurt Brock and set up another, Randy isn't going to have Brock moving backwards towards the cage where it is harder to circle away. And that brings me to my next point. Takedowns: Randy is not going to be able to take Brock down and that really hurts Randy's striking ability, because it will keep him on the outside. Also, if Brock isn't going to fear a shot, then he's not going to fear throwing some heavy leg and body kicks which he has been working on a ton. If Randy shoots in there is a very good chance he gets punished with a big knee. Randy isn't going to be able to get a wrestler that size and with that athletic ability down. People went nuts about Randy getting Chuck down, but LMFAO, Brock is not Chuck. No takedowns for Randy. Brock OTOH should be able to take Randy down almost at will. And I don't say this because of the way he tossed Mir and Herring around either, because those guys aren't known for their TD defense, I say this because Brock is on another level as a HW wrestler in MMA. Clinch: Anyone who watched the Lesnar-Herring fight knows about Brock has some pretty nasty knees from the clinch. Randy's dirty boxing is only going to be effective if Brock is hurt or tired, but Randy isn't going to get Brock to that point by going to the clinch first. He's going to have to hurt him on his feet or somehow gain top position on the ground in order for him to be effective in the clinch. Brock is too big, too strong, and too powerful to be dominated in the clinch like Tim and GG. Brock will get a takedown out of it or f*** him up with a knee or two and take it to the ground. If Brock is winning the stand-up, he'll hold Randy and force a break. Ground: The word is that Brock's submission defense has improved a ton since the Mir fight, and I believe it because he's had Comprido in who has praised him, so I think Brock's improved sub defense combined with his strength advantage and his huge upper body completely negates any advantage Randy has in applying submissions. If Randy gets put on his back, he'll either sweep and put Brock on his back or he'll roll and give up his back like Herring kept doing. Like the Herring fight, I don't see Brock taking Randy's back if he gives it to him; I just see him looking to capitalize with a knee or two and a couple punches to the side of the head until Randy scrambles to his feet. I don't expect Brock to gain full mount unless he connects on the feet first and hurts Randy. Then he goes in for the finish. He's not going to be able to do to Randy what he did to Herring, although he will have the size and strength advantage on the ground. OTOH, if Randy gets Brock on his back then that's a lot of trouble for Brock. If it's early enough in the fight and Brock still has a lot of gas left then I think he'll be able to escape and will scramble back to his feet because I don't see Randy keeping him down. If it's late in the fight, then Brock probably gets TKO'd IMO. Cardio: Brock's wrestling pedigree and Greg Nelson's infamous "caveman training" is going to have him ready for 3 full rounds. Past that, that's a lot of mass to carry around. Randy in the fourth and fifth rounds, if it gets there, will be very tired after dealing with Lesnar for three, yet he'll look pretty fresh compared to Lesnar. This is the biggest advantage Randy has in the fight, bar none. Athletic ability/physical attributes: All Brock. Experience: Randy has all the experience, but the downside is that Brock has all the video. Randy doesn't know exactly how much Brock's skills have improved, but he does know the situations inexperienced fighters like Brock can put themselves in. This is NOT - I repeat NOT - an advantage for Randy Couture unless Lesnar makes it an advantage for him. If Lesnar sticks to his gameplan he will maul Randy. If he abandons it, then it's a different story altogether. It's like Daisuke Matsuzaka vs. Greg Maddux. Greg is lightyears more experienced and game-smart than Daisuke is. Matsuzaka doesn't appear to trust his stuff and throws too many pitches, often getting him out a game early when he could easily be throwing a CG. That considered, it's 2008, not 1994, so who do you want on your team now? Obviously Dice-K. But if we turn the tables a bit - it's Game 7 of the WS, 2 outs, bottom of the ninth, bases loaded, you're up by one, and it's a 3-2 count. Who do you want then? Who do you feel more confident in as far as throwing a strike? That situation is the only way Randy's experience becomes a factor. It only matters if Lesnar has not used his superior ability to dominate the fight earlier and he instead finds himself in a situation late where he needs to do something big - like if he's on his back in the 5th round. Intangibles: Heart, desire, focus, determination, will to win, all that stuff I think you can pretty much put them tied. People should consider how Brock is a self-made man and has been an athlete all his life, even in the WWE. Even though he was given the WWE title, he still had to work his ass off behind the scenes for it. Even though he was given a UFC title shot 3 fights into his career, he still had to impress against Mir and dominate Herring. Randy is obviously a no-brainer. Those intangible qualities help make him a champion. The way for Randy to win: Randy needs to shoot in for the takedown early in the first round, perhaps right after the bell. Lesnar is probably going to think Randy will stand with him at first to feel him out and won't expect a takedown attempt so soon. Ideally, he doesn't get the takedown, just goes in for the shot, then pops up with a big right hand - do exactly to Lesnar what Lesnar did to Herring to set the tone, and exactly what Randy did to Big Tim. Hurt him early, and push the pace. Force Brock backwards against the cage into uncomfortable waters. Make Brock panic. Make him expend too much energy in the first two rounds. Most of all, Randy ALWAYS needs to keep at a safe distance or stay close inside. He can't try to move in and out against Brock, because he'll get killed that way. Make Brock feel pressured so he goes back to his wrestling roots and drives for the takedown. Hope Brock is angry and overly aggressive/defensive at this point, then look to sweep from guard. Put Brock on his back and throw punches - they don't have to hurt; they just have to keep Brock from thinking straight - and then keep the pressure through the first two rounds. Stay with that gameplan, then into round 3 Randy will have a significant cardio advantage where he'll be able to use his dirty boxing effectively. Perhaps even if he outworks Brock a lot, by the late fourth or fifth round Randy might even be able to get a takedown. My take overall: Brock is going to come in prepared, calm, and confident. He'll leave as the new UFC HW champion after demolishing Couture in the 2nd round via TKO. Pro-wrestling fans everywhere will s*** themselves with joy while MMA elitists everywhere will cry like pussies. Those in between will simply enjoy the fight and place Brock in the top-5 of the MMA HW rankings (behind Fedor, Nog, Barnett, and Arlovski). Your thoughts and predictions?

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Nov 12, 2008 -> 03:25 AM) I meant a trade of Josh Fields (version 2007) for Beltre 2008. But that's kind of pointless...it's NOT the situation, as you noted. I'm not sure the chances of a Fields trade necessarily increase though, because KW is less likely to give him up at diminished value (look at how he's held onto Anderson) and there are fewer teams desperate to make him their Opening Day 3B, making the talent packages we would be getting in return less attractive. There's two ways of looking at it. I'm not feeling great about Viciedo either...I think it's 50/50 at best, maybe even less, that he signs with the Sox. Diminished value for Josh Fields could still be a lot higher than many fans think. He's shown prodigious power at the Major League level and is under team control for a long time. Contrast that to someone like, say, Brandon Wood who hasn't, yet still gets talked about by some like he's the greatest thing yet to come.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Nov 12, 2008 -> 03:18 AM) Oops...meant Delmon. Brothers...that one gets me all the time. Well, let's use logic. The Twins would rather hold onto D. Young than Cuddyer, who's much more expensive. Young hasn't reached or come close to his ceiling, Cuddyer has. They already have Span, Gomez and Kubel...along with Young/Cuddyer...to play 3 positions and DH. So one is the odd man out. It really could be either Kubel/Cuddyer (Kubel would be worth a little more, because he's younger/cheaper) and Cuddyer is coming off a pretty serious injury. So Cuddyer and Perkins/Blackburn SHOULD get you Beltre. But do the M's bite on that deal? I don't think the M's give up Putz AND Beltre for that package. Although I guess stranger things have happened. No prob on the mix-up. There's so many Youngs and Uptons around that it's easy to confuse their names, especially the Young brothers because their first names all start with D. There are rumors the Twins have been shopping Young, just like there are rumors the Sox have been shopping Javy. Now, just as there are idiot sportswriters in Chicago who have no business covering anything at all except for their dicks when they practice mating, like assbag Joe Cowley for instance who for some reason thinks Javy is worth Luis Castillo, I'm sure there are also idiot sportswriters around the Twin Cities who think Delmon Young is worth a pile of crap. I'm not saying you think Young is worth a pile of crap, or that Beltre is a pile of crap, but I think sometimes the articles that come out tend to make it look like so-and-so is available for much cheaper than one would normally expect. If you look at the trade with the Rays, the Twins gave up a very good SP prospect with MLB experience in Garza who projects as a #2-3 or perhaps one day even better, plus a rare commodity in a young defense-first SS who can also hit the baseball in Bartlett, plus a legitimate closing prospect with electric stuff in Eduardo Morlan for Delmon Young, a young UT player in Harris, and a halfway decent OF prospect in Jason Pridie, who seems like he could be another one of those future AAAA thorns in our side. That whole deal was all about Young basically with the others not exactly throw-ins but really not a whole lot more than that either. Keep in mind Delmon, through age 22, has a .292/.326/.413 line with 26 HR in 344 games. That may not seem like a ton of production right now, but 22-year-olds are supposed to be trying to hit in A+ ball, not starting for their second seasons in the Majors and holding their own. When articles come out saying Young is available, think like available for another Matt Garza, or available for Yunel Escobar of the Braves or maybe even Chris Young of the Pads if things there get even worse and they look to go the Marlins route. If the Twins traded Young for basically one year of Beltre plus Type A comp then their fans should light their new GM on fire and put it out with their own piss. That's how bad that deal would be. As for Cuddyer, that could be a good start if the M's were interested. If I'm the M's I don't bite on Cuddyer though, but that's me and I don't like Michael Cuddyer. For a corner OF or DH in the AL, his 2006 season should be closer to the norm for him, not the career-year exception (up to this point anyway).

QUOTE (DukeNukeEm @ Nov 11, 2008 -> 07:07 PM) Mets fans: hardy har har. Jesus Christ. 3 Major League players: one an MVP candidate, another a solid #3/#4 starter who provides 200IP and around 200K each year, and a young closer who has been among the very best in baseball since his arrival, all for... Three halfway-decent prospects, none of them top prospects, and two complete pieces of s***. I'm sure Kenny would be all over that. Are Mets fans like the New York version of Cubs fans? The Yanks fans seem to be the more intelligent group. f*** those idiot Mets fans. Those four players would be needed just to get some team to take on Luis Castillo and pay his piece of s*** ass for the next three years.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Nov 11, 2008 -> 07:41 PM) If you were the Mariners, who would YOU take, lol? Dmitri Young/Michael Cuddyer and Perkins/Blackburn for Beltre.... OR Drum roll please! Josh Fields and Lance Broadway/Russell/McCulloch? I don't think there's any question our neighbors to the north will be able to offer a more alluring package, if that's the route they go in. Dealing one of their starters is a huge risk though, because then they're in the Livan Hernandez/journeyman FA fifth starter's trap again. There's a 50/50 chance that the Twins will line up with Beltre and Orlando Cabrera as the left side of their IF (or Blake). Ha. If the Twins traded Delmon Young to the Mariners they'd probably ask for both Putz and Beltre, not add another pitcher and ask for a ton less. Delmon Young is a lot like Matt Kemp being that they are both extremely talented young corner OF's who are capable of monster seasons in the future, and are playing well in the Majors, yet fans for some reason think they can pick them up for above average but not great veterans in their walk years.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Nov 11, 2008 -> 07:23 PM) If Fields was coming off the 2007 season and NOT this off-season with the injury/defense/pouting issues...then you would probably have a deal. Same with pitchers like Broadway, McCullogh or Egbert a season or two ago. He hasn't sunk to Borchard/Rauch lows yet...2008 will be a huge year for Josh. We'll see how serious he was about getting in shape/rehabilitation as well as how his defense looks when/if he's healthy in the spring. I think KW will be smart enough to hold onto him at least through the middle of March and showcase him out in Arizona. Disagree with this as well. Fields wouldn't have even been available after '07 for Beltre. Fields was shopped for Miguel Cabrera. Huge difference in ability there. If the Sox sign Viciedo there is a chance Fields could be made available. There could very well be teams out there who salivated over Fields in '07 but found out he was unavailable for anything less than a superstar. Now that the cost is lower and he may be available, the chances of a deal actually increase, not decrease. I also don't buy the idea that Fields' injuries in '07 have weakened his status as a prospect so much that Poreda would have to be included in order to get a solid but unspectacular player in his walk year. Teams are thorough in the way they do business. If a team has scouts they respect that really like Fields and the GM agrees, then they do their research, talk to the player, have him take a physical, and then they get it done. That is not to say there are a ton of teams around that love Josh Fields, but I do think there are some teams that would love to have him and that would be willing to give up some pretty good talent to get him. 23 Major League home runs in 2/3 of a season is nothing to scoff at, even if it was a year ago. Also, Broadway, McCulloch, and Egbert have no business being mentioned anywhere near Fields. Broadway and McCulloch are trash our old regime dragged in and Egbert is a 4th/5th starter prospect. Neither have the type of physical talent that makes people think "future All-Star."

QUOTE (joeynach @ Nov 11, 2008 -> 11:36 PM) Those are sunk costs, I doubt a GM would take that into account in doing whats currently best for his team. True. And besides, the Mariners have a bunch of new people on board anyway. If their scouts say Fields is going to be a very good player then they make that deal. Major League teams listen to their own staff evaluations, not voodoo doctors who would claim a particular team's prospects are all cursed.

QUOTE (beck72 @ Nov 11, 2008 -> 09:17 AM) See post #57. I did call the Quentin trade last year, though, after Az. signed Byrnes to a long term deal. D'oh My post was three later. I guess that's what happens when you don't read the whole thread. Now let's see if it goes down. I feel a trade happens probably by Thursday, Saturday at the latest.

Yep, and even the arguable one (Vaz for Young) is still even at worst IMO, just because Javy and his contract now is worth just as much, if not more, than he was when we traded for him. Javy, in this climate, is still worth another prospect as talented as Chris Young along with a couple smaller pieces, although the inclusion of El Duque and Vizcaino IMO was more about salary relief for the Sox.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Nov 11, 2008 -> 09:13 AM) Not much new to add. I guess KW has to be thinking, which one of the five younger players is most likely to regress....Quentin, Danks, Floyd, Ramirez and Jenks? I would include Thornton and Buehrle with these first five...those are our 7 most valuable properties. Then you have Konerko/Dye/Swisher. The arguments back and forth about Jenks have been interesting, to say the least. I almost might put Thornton on the market if I'm convinced I can get a similar performance out of Poreda, and trading Thornton coming off a strong season when he looked like one of the best lefty relievers in the game. The question is how much can we get for Jenks, and how confident is KW in 1) finding a replacement via trade or FA for Jenks (ala Juan Cruz or Jeremy Affeldt types) and 2) how confident he is that Dotel/Poreda/Linebrink/Russell could get the job done without Jenks at the back of the pen? Still, when it comes down to, it doesn't seem NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE to get Vazquez's .500 record and 30+ starts out of a pool of 3-5 pitching prospects who would be competing for 1-2 spots in the rotation (in addition to Richard, this scenario is with Poreda replacing Thornton)...then you have the wild card of a Contreras comeback, the possibility he could even be tried as a closer. Or bringing back El Duque, lol. Just kidding...well, sort of. Or Denys (not Baez) Reyes. Then you also have around $23-25 million or whatever with Vazquez's deal off the books to invest in places of need like 3B (Blake, Kouzmanoff, Atkins, etc.), 2B and CF. Maybe they do get Taveras and somehow pull off the deal for Roberts OR sign Orlando Hudson by saving money/prospects by picking up Taveras for a Broadway type of prospect. Then you can devote the prospects you get back for Vazquez, Jenks/Thornton and Swisher/Konerko/Dye to what you are proposing...rebuilding that foundation and depth of quality pitching that we've lost since 2005. I can't imagine what would have happened had we tried to hold onto Garcia, McCarthy and Garland...KW seems to have the right feel for who to deal and when and is on something of a roll, almost impossible for it to continue with everything breaking right with the Big 4 (CQ, Alexei, Floyd, Danks). I'm with you on all this except the part about Russell getting consideration to close and Thornton. Russell has the stuff, but his command issues would bring back memories of Koch IMO. He's not an uber-talented prospect like Jenks was and even Jenks was only thrust into that role right away out of necessity. Thornton, meanwhile, I'd have to be given an almost video game-like package to trade. I'm talking like major superstar. Thornton's contract is amazingly cheap and we control him through 2011 I believe. It's something crazy like $6.5M total over that span, I looked it up before. I don't even think you can get two years of Denys Reyes that cheap. I really think Thornton could do just as good of a job as Sherrill and the motivation for dealing Jenks would be getting a lot of value, saving a lot of money, and controlling a player just as long if not longer. When you mention Kenny trading Garcia, McCarthy, and Garland you bring up a great point. Personally, for the longest time I didn't have any faith in the Sox as far as drafting talent that could break in and excel with the Sox or signing talent internationally that could do the same. However, I have tons of faith in Kenny and his staff to scout major league or major league-ready talent out of other organizations. His only big blunder since the early years and the Richie deal was Swisher, but Swisher is still a talented player who has the ability to be a lot better than he was last year. Kenny and his staff have pretty much been spot-on for a while now concerning major league players, so maybe that is part of the reason why I want to see some prospects who are close to being ready come in. I think if he puts the right people to work we will end up with a couple very good players who can be added to our core and help us compete for a long time to come, and we'll also end up adding a couple more veteran pieces via trade from the crop of prospects we'd get back.

QUOTE (chunk23 @ Nov 11, 2008 -> 09:01 AM) I see Swisher for Street + Tavares as very likely. Maybe us tossing in an extra prospect. It's not something I want, but it's possible. I also beat you guys to this scenario. If we got the career Willy Taveras and the career Huston Street and the Rockies got the career Nick Swisher then I think that would be a steal for us. But, there is a lot of risk on both sides. If they get the 2006 Swisher and we get the 2008 versions of Taveras and Street then it could go down as one of the worst trades ever for Kenny Williams. I think this deal is likely too, and congrats for thinking of it first. Are you Kenny Williams? This seems likely because the deal probably splits Sox fans down the middle, with half loving it and half hating it, and that's what happens a lot of the time when Kenny's big moves go down.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Nov 11, 2008 -> 07:12 AM) Do we really want any part of Street as a replacement for Jenks, or would it just be increasing the pool of talent (by committee) to go along with Dotel, Thornton, Poreda and Linebrink? On paper, those five make for a pretty imposing pen...maybe the greatest in baseball history, lol. Joe Morgan would s*** himself.

QUOTE (Kalapse @ Nov 10, 2008 -> 09:07 PM) Just sort of thinking out loud here. Adam Russell, Lance Broadway, ??? and/or ??? for Taveras and Street. Not saying I necessarily want this sort of thing to happen but it's kind of funny how two guys that KW has shown strong interest in within the past few months now happen to be on the same team and are almost certainly going to be dealt within in the next few months. I don't know who the ??? would be but I know they're looking for bullpen help and rotation depth, Broadway's name has come up already in connection with the Rockies and Russell seems like a decent enough trade chip when dealing with a low payroll team in need of cheap, possible high impact relievers. EDIT: Now that I think about it they also have Atkins who they're looking to unload. Yeesh I could easily see some sort a mega deal brewing between the Sox and Rox. I think the "and/or" part of your post would have to be something pretty significant though. Egbert would seem like a fit for the Rockies too, but not the significant part. Ditto with Logan and Wassermann. Would anyone do Swisher for Taveras + Street?

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Nov 11, 2008 -> 07:00 AM) Not sure I understand this line of reasoning. Weren't Jenks and Dye two of the biggest reasons we succeeded in 05 and 08? I mean...it's great if you can get guaranteed major league ready players/prospects for your veterans, but we've been on the wrong and right side (Todd Ritchie and Freddy Garcia) of such deals when 2-3 players either flame out or you end up cutting into your depth and the one player you acquire is either injured or non-productive (like Nick Swisher). We're usually in a veteran dumping mode in seasons like White Flag, 2001/2002/2004/2007...it is very rarely that we have traded star players in their prime under KW. Carlos Lee is one of the few examples...we know all about that deal and the various arguments/rationales behind it. Usually, we've let players go via free agency or made "small" moves for negligible payoffs at mid-season. As usual you make some good points. One thing that I would about the Sox and Kenny's current situation is that IMO he can afford to deal both Javy and Jenks in a market starved for good, reasonably-priced pitching as well as two sluggers in a market starved for good, reasonably-priced hitting. The wrong move here IMO is trading just one player and expecting it all to work out just fine. Notice how after '06 Kenny dealt 2 SP for 5 pitching prospects. Danks and Floyd worked out, Gio and Masset were used in other deals, and Rasner is slowly but surely developing in the minors, although he's going to need to hurry up and develop if he wants to stay out of the Rule-5 draft. So in that deal we've gotten value out of 4 of the 5 players acquired so far with two of them mainstays. The right move, to me, is trading at least three, preferrably 4, of those tradeable commodities. All we need to think about right now is Danks and Floyd. If Jenks, Vazquez, Dye/Thome/Konerko/Swisher were on another team, would anyone seriously consider giving up one of Danks of Floyd for that kind of player? If we can make 4 deals, and come away with 8-12 prospects, then we only need three of those to join the big league club at some point. If we concentrate on pitching and can come away with a couple #2/#3 starters and either an everyday position player or a dominant reliever, we've already IMO added value to the organization. Kenny does trade his prospects, so also consider that some of what we would acquire in such a scenario would end up landing us other veterans, preferrably younger ones who better fit into the equation. Prospects are the easiest things to deal in this game because you can trade prospects with 25 teams (omitting divisional rivals) instead of only 5-6 depending on need, league, salary requirements, contract length, payroll, and ownership issues. Above all, this team needs to completely revamp its minor league organization as well as continue towards a new, younger core. We can't contend for the next 10 years without doing that. People always get worked up about trading for prospects, but I think it is important to understand 1) the conditions of the starting pitching market right now where the difference between a veteran who provides 200IP with a 4.50 ERA and a prospect who provides 170-180IP with a 4.80 ERA can be as much as $15 million per season, 2) that the age of our old core forces transition, 3) the impact our new core has had on our team, and 4) the importance of the Sox baseball version of the 2010 plan. We don't need to pay Javy to be a #4 when we can target a couple young #2/#3's who have a downside of a #4 at $22M less over the next two seasons; we absolutely have to get younger with our sluggers and doing it now for value instead of letting them walk could benefit tremendously; we can afford to lose dynamite in the lineup due to the emergence of Quentin and Ramirez; and finally, why not potentially add a few more pieces to the 2010 crop of talent that, if we hang on to it, could include Beckham, Danks, Poreda, Shelby, and Allen? Every one of those players, if they stay healthy, should end '09 in Double A or Triple A.