QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Dec 10, 2013 -> 06:14 PM)
Ultimately, regardless of the return, I come back to this thought - the Sox had 4 MLB starters with 2-3 more coming up the pipeline. You aren't going to deal Sale without a monstrosity of a package and, frankly, I don't think the odds of a deal for Sale have changed all that much. If the Sox are overwhelmed, they will move him; otherwise, there's no need for it at this point in time. That leaves you with Quintana, Danks, and Santiago.
Quintana has been a revelation, but he also took steps forward last year. His ground ball rate went down slightly while his flyball rate went up slightly, but they are both still within solid, acceptable levels. His strikeout rate increased by 2 per 9 IP and he actually decreased his walk rate, so his overall K/BB increased by 1 (from 1.93 to 2.93). That sort of efficiency led him to strand a few more runners than he had the previous year while allowing him to throw more innings, averaging just more than 6 innings a start. The other nice thing about that is that his IP/GS increased in the second half, going from 6 exactly to 6.14. It's not a significant increase, but it's an increase. Further, his K/9 and BB/9 both improved in the second half as well. On top of that, his velocity increased across the board last year except for 1 pitch - his changeup, which lost half a MPH. I don't think people are going to complain about that. Quintana seems to be rapidly evolving into a #2 type of pitcher. He has significant value on the market, but probably moreso to the White Sox. He wasn't going anywhere without 2-3 legitimate prospects being included.
Danks is coming off an injury-recovery season. He's owed something like $13 million per season over the next 3 years. Frankly, the idea of getting anything other than a team taking his contract off the Sox hands is ludicrous. He's also a nice bounce back candidate. He showed respectable velocity on the year (89.3), featured fantastic control, and exhibited a good ground ball rate. If his HR/9 regresses to the mean (16.8% HR/FB, up from 10.8% for his career), that immediately cuts runs from his ERA and adds outs. Further, if his stuff continues to recover, we could be talking about a high 3's ERA kind of guy with an increased strikeout rate. Considering you are going to get no value for him, keeping him is the right call with money in the budget.
Rienzo isn't going to get you any sort of value - he's not that valuable of a prospect - and Erik Johnson and Hector Santiago probably have similar ceilings, but Erik Johnson has the advantages of a. throwing from the right side and b. having 6 years prior to free agency as opposed to 4. It doesn't make sense to trade either.
That brings up Santiago. Santiago exhibits the ability to miss bats, as he throws multiple off speed pitches but shows off good velocity. That velocity is what throws hitters off. On that note, it's worth mentioning that his velocity this year decreased by one to one and a half MPH. If the Sox believe that to be a trend, that's reason enough to get rid of him. Beyond that, even when given the ability to start full time, in the minors, Santiago still did not pitch deep into games - he made 23 starts in the minors in 2011 and averaged [drumroll] 5 and a half innings per start. When starting in the majors, he has not been able to get to 6 innings. That is an incredibly vital number to get to because it cuts down on the usage of your relievers by an incredible amount - getting out of the 6th with ease means they aren't warming up or coming in during the 4th, 5th, or 6th innings when you get yourself in trouble. I'm sure this was something both Ventura and Cooper preached ad nauseum to him, and there were just no drastic changes made. Consider that he made 11 starts in the second half and threw 61.2 innings. His strikeout rate decreased in the second half from 9.38 to 6.71. His walk rate increased from 4.08 to 4.88. He started allowing more hits. His WHIP was 1.62, yet somehow, some way, he managed to put up a 3.94 ERA in that time frame. Tell me, do you want to sit here and tell me that a guy with a K rate under 7, a BB rate near 5, and a WHIP of 1.62 deserved to put up an ERA of 3.94, or do you believe he got lucky? I know my answer to that one.
If the Sox wanted to get value for a starting pitcher, all roads led to Santiago. I like the kid and think he's going to be a good middle of the rotation guy, but I think your talking about a guy who compares favorably to guys like Jorge De La Rosa, Jonathan Sanchez, and Oliver Perez - good stuff, suspect control, and if they can reign it in, they're good; if not, it will unravel.
Getting a guy with the type of contact, patience, and speed of Eaton for Santiago is great for the long-term prosperity of the White Sox.
"I love it when you analyze"