Eminor3rd

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jun 25, 2014 -> 07:46 AM) (I did too) I'm going to start using Blowasavio though.

TUC is absolutely Bruce Levine.

I vote all

QUOTE (BigHurt3515 @ Jun 24, 2014 -> 02:40 PM) I thought I remember him be known for his defense before he started hitting everything a couple years ago. I really hope he sticks someone with the big club. It is fun to see a guy that has been in our minors come up and actually succeed. It has been awhile it feels like Strangely, he's still young for his level.

Here's an article today that contextualizes "arm holds:" http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-value-o...-using-his-arm/ Those can result from throw or non-throws. It basically just goes off the result of the base runner, which is an imperfect but pretty good proxy, especially over a large sample.

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Jun 24, 2014 -> 09:41 AM) Because their best prospect is a catcher and Grandal is expendable and hasn't been great. Why is he expendable? Just because you have a talent surplus doesn't make your surplus worthless. Even if they lose some leverage from having a perceived window to needing to deal him (which is debatable with the presence of any prospect of Hedges' quality), the market price is still going to be determined by the number of suitors and how motivated those suitors would be. LOTS of teams will want a 25 year-old C that has put of 3.1 fWAR over his first 500 PA.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Jun 24, 2014 -> 09:15 AM) Same logic people think anyone can take Beckham for nothing. Similar career pattern. Beckham for a few more years; but is having a better year this year. Lol the "for a few more years" part is everything.

QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Jun 24, 2014 -> 09:20 AM) I don't know if Abreu/Nieto/Remaining Cubans would like it if Viciedo or Alexei were traded. You definitely don't want to make Abreu upset Idk why we assume that we have to retain every Cuban player we have in order to keep Abreu content. Does he even like them? I mean they're just people. Like if I went to a job abroad somewhere and there were 5 American dudes, I'd feel like it would help me make my transition. But then if I was there for a few months and one of those dudes got fired, I don't think it would be a big deal. It's not like they'd be my childhood best friends or anything.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Jun 24, 2014 -> 08:23 AM) At least be consistent. If Beckham is worth a zero value failed prospect, we should be able to get Grandal for a Jared Mitchell or Erik Johnson (were he to have a surgery to 2). Grandal has had less than 500 ML PA, and only have of them have been bad. And really, not THAT bad -- he's accumulated 3.1 fWAR over those 500PA, which equates to a very decent seasons, and is better than any stretch of 500 PA in Beckham's career. Why do we think we can get Grandal for cheap?

QUOTE (scs787 @ Jun 24, 2014 -> 08:23 AM) Thing is, it wasn't just his last 5-6 starts, it's been all season, as evidence by the 11 QS. He's been "feast or famine" all year. In an eventual Sale-FA-Q-Rodon-Danks rotation he'd be the 5th starter and I'd take a guy that can give you 6/3 the majority of the time all day......But that said, if they can get back another starter I'm not apposed to trading him. I also don't see what the problem is in having 4 lefties in the rotation. I can't find the stats, but are players typically better vs RHP or LHP? Well, right-handed batters are between 2 and 3 times more common. The idea is that you want to be able to give teams a different look each night, but I'm not aware of any research that has actually attempted to confirm an effect there. To me, I think a good mix is one of those things that's nice to have, but absolutely should not get in the way of getting the 5 best starters you can get, regardless of arm side.

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Jun 24, 2014 -> 07:42 AM) I completely disagree with this. Eaton will be on and off the DL during much of his career IMO. He's already hit the DL enough at a young enough age, and what would make you think he'll become generally healthier as he gets older? He plays a premium position and does so with a hard style of play that lends itself to constant minor injuries. Asking him to save his body or whatever and not play as hard, not use his speed, etc. just devalues his game to the point where you don't care much about him anymore. I said prior to the offseason that I'd be happy if Eaton became kind of like a poor man's Pods offensively overall with much better D in the field. A couple people thought that was stupid, blah blah blah Eaton is so great and so much better and all that crap. I stick to that. We're not getting a perfect world scenario with this guy IMO, he's probably going to be hurt a lot and if we can get 5 good years out of him we will have done well. What I meant by that line was that the injuries he's suffered this year aren't injuries that are likely to have lasting effects on his ability. Like, if he had bad hamstrings or something.

QUOTE (Feeky Magee @ Jun 24, 2014 -> 07:18 AM) Forget OPS. It's all about the wRC+. Haha, beat me to it.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jun 24, 2014 -> 07:11 AM) Eaton needs to be a 750ish OPS guy to have the type of major impact we need in the leadoff spot. He's at 703 this season, and 705 for his entire major league career. However, in five minor league seasons, he was at 949. We're not going to get a 900 type of player, but we expected 750-825. Adam needs to be more of a threat on the basepaths as well as cleaning up some of his throws in the outfield...sometimes he hesitates or peers in for a step before throwing, and his throws have been pretty inconsistent, but the main positives he brings are his speed/hustle/attitude, not his arm. Plus, we desperately need a leader on this team (among the position players), and Eaton's the best candidate since Abreu's the "strong and silent follow my example" type, much like Konerko. I think this is an instance where wRC+ does much better job of putting his contributions in perspective than OPS does. Right now, he's at 94 wRC+, where a league average CF so far this season is 96. Remember that wRC+ is league-adjusted, park-adjusted, and is scaled so that a league average hitter, regardless of position, is 100. Each point represents a percentage point. So, essentially, Eaton has been an average hitter for a CF even when you include park effects. Considering this will be his first full season in the Majors, and he's had injury issues that aren't likely to linger, I'm very alright with that performance. I do think he needs to improve and that he WILL improve. But, even now, he's a handful of walk and doubles away from being a 100 wRC+ guy, which is tremendously valuable in CF.

Who was saying we don't need to try anymore reclamation projects in the bullpen?

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jun 23, 2014 -> 04:56 PM) He has had 2 TJ surgeries. This. I'm not TRADING anything of value for a 2 TJ guy. Cheap, upside signing? Sure. Not using a trading chip, though.

QUOTE (Leonard Zelig @ Jun 23, 2014 -> 01:44 PM) Which one of those guys do you feel confident playing major league shortstop? Everyone but Johnson, based only on what I've read. There's also Leury Garcia.

QUOTE (Leonard Zelig @ Jun 23, 2014 -> 02:09 PM) names??? If its Alexei, who do you feel confident replacing him with? If its Beckham, what is a realistic return? Yep, those are our middle infielders. Replacements in AAA: Marcus Semien, Carlos Sanchez, Micah Johnson, Tyler Saladino. As far as Beckham's return: I'm not sure; it's an interesting question. No one is dumb enough to ignore his last four years, but he has the tantalizing pedigree that makes you think he might be on the Alex Gordon development schedule. I guess it'll depend on how many buyers are in on 2B, but if it's 2-3, I'd think we could get something decent, though probably not "exciting."

QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Jun 23, 2014 -> 01:39 PM) What is going to make next years Sox team any better than this one? Looking at what is available in FA, they won't likely be heavily involved. Garcia will be an upgrade offensively in RF, but the pitching problems will still be an issue as well as production at LF, and C and a likely downgrade at 2B, DH. Yes, it is a gamble to trade for prospects, but, you have to gamble a little to get rewards. If your goal is "make next year's Sox team any better than this one," your answer should not be "trading top contributors for prospects."

QUOTE (Leonard Zelig @ Jun 23, 2014 -> 01:03 PM) Who could be traded from the major league roster that would bring back a decent return without creating a hole somewhere else? Middle infielders

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jun 23, 2014 -> 10:29 AM) Interesting. I still put him at 3 or 4 right now, behind Rodon, Anderson, possibly Hawkins. I think people are forgetting about Johnson's defensive woes. That's my thought , too. Anderson has defensive warts, too, but the ceiling is higher. Still, the guy is close. I think it's definitely defensible to slot Johnson #2.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jun 23, 2014 -> 09:55 AM) That wasn't the plan originally. It became the plan because there were no better options. How do you know that?

QUOTE (iamshack @ Jun 21, 2014 -> 10:06 PM) So it's been relatively static since 2002? Yep: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...=&players=0

QUOTE (iamshack @ Jun 20, 2014 -> 05:29 PM) Question for you...have fly balls always been as dangerous as in recent history (say the last 20 years), or is that a more recent phenomenon brought about as a result of the newer, smaller ballparks and the steroid era? Interesting question, not sure if we (the public) has access to the data to find out. FG shows league-wide HR/FB% back to 2002, and it is always around 10-11% during that period. Not sure how far you havve to go back to see a significant change, though.

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Jun 20, 2014 -> 05:06 PM) Well I could argue at length about the artificial nature of food resources and the like, and how fragile the economy really is and how devastating some of these things can be on the majority of the world's citizens who were not fortunate enough to have been born into a first world country propped up by third world labor under deplorable living and working conditions and so on... but I'll choose to stick to baseball and your & wite's belief that John Danks is going to become a bad pitcher because he gives up a lot of flyballs currently - if that's what your point is I guess. I can't believe you would honestly believe that billions of people on this planet live and work under desirable conditions but whatever, baseball...... Yeah, totally. On average, I'd say people would choose to return to the days of the bubonic plague, when lifespans averaged 25-30 years, and when insane religious-driven governments ran Inquisitions and committed mass genocides unchecked across the developed world. Because, you know, progress isn't worthwhile unless it instantly creates Utopia. But baseball... QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Jun 20, 2014 -> 05:06 PM) I think the right way to look at John Danks is this: going into the year we had 2 questions, 1) is John Danks going to return to the old John Danks, and 2) If not, will he still be able to become an effective Major League pitcher? The answer to #1 is no. #2 we're waiting to see how this all turns out. Can John Danks generally become a 30+ start, 200IP+ starter with an ERA roughly at 4.00 or below on an annual basis? I don't know. It's been done before, but nobody really knows. He's been giving up flyballs but he hasn't been giving up many runs lately. He's been, by his own admission, rededicated to the finer points of pitching and spends a lot of time studying hitters and hitter tendencies. Rather than look for a reason to be pessimistic I would look at his recent success as a reason for optimism. In a vacuum, can John Danks give up flyballs forever and not have bad starts because of it? No. But what do the flyballs look like for one, how is he getting them for two, are the hitters coming close to squaring the ball up off him and just missing or is Danks doing a much better job of keeping them off balance? Further, again, the outs are what is important. He needs to keep getting outs, and yes, he will give up HRs but that means it's more important he keeps the walks way down. Will John Danks continue to put up an ERA of 1.50 or whatever it was that Balta posted re: his last 5 starts? No, he's not Sale. But ERA below 4.00, 200IP, can he do that? Let's not be Negative Nancies around here please? No dark clouds here, just at WSI. The original point that wite was making is that we have information that tells us that his results have not lined up with his batted ball profile, which is a sign of impending negative regression. It was not that Danks is a garbage pitcher.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Jun 20, 2014 -> 05:46 PM) Forgive my ignorance, but are FIP & xFIP really going to be predictive when using a 13 inning sample? Well, maybe not, but if so, it means his ERA is equally non-predictive. Basically, what we know is that his performance hasn't "earned" him the ERA that got him DFA'd. As far as those numbers informing that he'll continue doing what he been doing from a FIP perspective, yeah we don't know.