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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 21, 2014 -> 10:59 AM) I agreed a lot with that idea up until the Kimbrell extension. Now I wonder if closers are about to become a lot more valuable? I don't think you can use Kimbrel as a standard for guys like Addison Reed, though. Plus, I thought Dave made a good point that Reed's save totals actually make him less valuable in that he'll get better arbitration raises:

QUOTE (Reddy @ Feb 21, 2014 -> 12:34 PM) lol yall can keep deluding yourselves but there's no way in hell we don't trot out Paulie as our starting 1B (or DH at the minimum) one last time ESPECIALLY since Opening Day is at home. Anyone who thinks otherwise clearly doesn't know who Jerry Reinsdorf is. My other question to that crowd is - why does it matter? "I hope so".... why? Personally I want Paulie to have his Rivera and Jeter season. Of course he won't, but given that we're not competing anyway who cares if he starts the first game of the season? Who IS Jerry Reinsdorf? He's a car salesman, right?

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 21, 2014 -> 01:56 PM) He made it through 2012 and 2013 and now is on the same routine. I think it would be very far-fetched to say if he had been a starter in 2010-2011 he wouldn't have been injured if he goes down at this point. If you want to say his relieving contributed to his discomfort in 2012, that could make some sense, but most pitchers do go through a lot of pain and dead arm periods throughout every season, even if they have been starters their entire lives. Sale is always going to be an injury concern. It probably is the only reason he is even a White Sox. But you never know when. It could be 10 years from now, it could be tomorrow. Even guys with classic deliveries go down. Sure, but that doesn't mean there isn't a way to minimize the risk, which, logically, would be working up to a 200 inning load by gradually increasing through the minors.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Feb 21, 2014 -> 01:03 PM) I know that the pitcher can't control the fielders. However, FIP is being used frequently for pitchers performance. I think that a combination using a GB and line drive percentage maybe along with the others may be able to show more of the pitchers influence on the game rather than only BB, K, and HR which is the only pure control variables. For the runs scored, I know I'm in the minority but I'm less concerned about an individuals performance than how the individual impacts a win or loss. The performance aspect is for arbitration and salaries. A players impact on winning a given game is more what I would be interested in. The only way I can see to start breaking it down is how he impacts scoring runs at bat and prevents runs on defense. WAR doesn't really do it because that really looks at how his performance is better than another player of lesser performance. The runs prevented stat seems to make sense on defense and OPS and OPS+ kind of start it for offense but there are still too many variables not taken into account for it to do too much. That makes intuitive sense, but research has shown no significant year-to-year correlation between LD rates at all. GB rate is less reliable than you'd think, but is more consistent than LD -- the problem is that it cannot be considered an inherently good or bad thing because it doesn't fit into the equation of linear weights. In other words, it is a class of event, but it isn't a final outcome. Therefore, it cannot hold a run value. A GB can become one of several types of hits or outs, and the odds of each event occurring are entirely dependent on defense, chance, and the ability of the hitter -- all context-dependent and infinitely variable.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Feb 21, 2014 -> 12:21 PM) After doing research on many of the stats this is one that bothers me the most, I think. If I understand it correctly (which is highly doubtful) FIP is predicated on the fact that pitchers can only control 3 factors: HR, BB and K. I think there is valid reasons to say that some pitchers can control the number of groundballs and thus control the game a little more. I realize it's not totally in the pitchers control because the fielders need to make plays. However, if the number of groundballs is increased the number of runs scored would decrease. You're mostly right, but there's an important detail missing about the efficacy of the assumption. The reason that FIP is based on those three things is because those are what Voros McCracken found to be statistically reliable predictors of future performance when controlling for other variables, thus implying that they are a product of pitcher "true talent." Isn't because someone just decided that those metrics made sense intuitively, like some people think.

QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Feb 21, 2014 -> 11:42 AM) Stats like WAR are a guidepost, I get that, but should not be held as an end all be all of player production. If I am evaluating a player to come to my team, WAR is the last thing I would use as a GM. WAR is more like the preseason top 25 in college football, it is a measuring stick that calculates success in a vacuum but as an evaluation/scouting tool is not very useful. If you make this claim, you are then also claiming the same of every statistic from a player's past. So if you really mean to say, "If I am evaluating a player to come to me team, numbers are the last thing I would use as a GM," then I can see your argument. Otherwise, I don't think it makes sense. All the "noise" you mentioned is precisely what makes context-dependent statistics LESS dependable for evaluating future performance.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 21, 2014 -> 01:39 PM) Are you saying that in your opinion he definitely wouldn't have had these issues had he not relieved? I think it would be far fetched to think any injury from here on out had to do with his being in the bullpen in 2010-2011. I don't think it's far-fetched to assume that major shifts in workout, routine, and conditioning would have a detrimental impact to the health of a pitcher's arm.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 21, 2014 -> 10:00 AM) Yeah, it would be so White Sox to have Konerko and his .900 + OPS start against LHP, relegating Dunn to the bench against the lefties he doesn't hit. The horror. Isn't Nolasco a righty?

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 21, 2014 -> 08:56 AM) That's ok. I think the best place to break a pitcher in is via the pen. When in doubt look to Earl Weaver. Why do you think that? Are you not concerned for his conditioning? Do you remember how bad Sale/Quintana/Santiago all tired out toward the end of the season right after being converted from the pen?

QUOTE (scs787 @ Feb 20, 2014 -> 07:25 PM) Lol, there's a log jam in the OF too. Keep it simple Robin, Dunn vs RHP and PK vs LHP.

QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Feb 20, 2014 -> 03:40 PM) From that article, I agree that their level of replacement players is too high, because there are not players that perform on the level that they indicate readily available. It would be nice to see a sample of what a roster of replacement players would statistically look like, understanding the difficulty as some players defense pushes their bat and vice versa, but a median range of performance of what a replacement level player would be expected to produce would help to analyze actual players against it. I understand they have offensive and defensive WAR, but it is inadequate to me if I can not tell in what areas the player is either offensively proficient or deficient. I for one am not a big fan of WAR, and it really comes from my belief that there is no such thing as a replacement level player. I would rather see a +/- of league median statistics. I don't know enough about the mechanics of the replacement calculation to argue for or against it, but to me it doesn't matter too much. What's important is that there is an established denominator of SOME kind. The best part of WAR to me is being able to compare players against the same baseline, whatever that baseline happens to be.

QUOTE (Señor Ding-Dong @ Feb 20, 2014 -> 04:47 PM) The 68 million dollar man.

You can't say a $50m contract is or isn't an albatross without context.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Feb 20, 2014 -> 09:44 AM) Chronologically speaking, the Mets, Cubs, and Phillies fall in line with this too. You could make an argument for the Angels, but I think their primary problem is making poor choices in free agency rather than a payroll problem, but due to the two albatrosses they have in Hamilton and Pujols, they are going to be paying a lot more in the coming years if/when they lock up Trout, and even going year to year with him could get very expensive very quickly. Also, we can't act like ARod's contract with the Yankees right now is something that's easily movable or isn't an albatross of a contract, because it's not and it's very much a terrible contract. I also think the Dodgers could be in a lot of trouble in the next 3-5 years when some of these funds suddenly dry up because they've spent so much in luxury taxes. Not to mention the Astros. The Cubs , Astros, and Mets are both going through extremely tough rebuilds exclusively because of poor long-term contract decisions. The Yankees have been mediocre the past few years thanks to an attempt to avoid the luxury tax threshold, and they are now living the nightmare of the end of ARod, Teixeira, and Sabathia contracts that they bought along with the earlier prime years. With all due respect, Marty, I have no idea how you can look around baseball and say that albatross contracts are rarely a factor in sustained success. 10% of the league is in full disaster recovery rebuild, and at least another 10% are aging contenders with their hands tied. And these are all medium to large markets. It took the Pirates 20 years to build a winning core of players without the luxury of affording an albatross, and the Rays have traded multiple franchise-level players (Price is next) in order to avoid having to extend them. The Twins (Mauer) and Brewers (Braun) are next in line as those guys start to decline.

He was just so homer-able last year. He would look brilliant for a couple innings and then just start tossing up softball pitches chest high. I honestly think he got really lucky on a lot of those hangers. He really easily could have a had a disastrous debut if not for a handful of shanked foul balls that could have been moonshots.

QUOTE (Steve9347 @ Feb 19, 2014 -> 06:15 PM) Your face smells. witesoxfan is a smellface. End of thread.

That's insane that Law considers Gatewood a top 5er but McDaniel has him in the sixth TIER.

Law's the one that actually likes Rienzo, right?

QUOTE (Dunt @ Feb 19, 2014 -> 04:31 PM) I really dont understand the Peter Bourjos dicksuck fest. I get he is a great defender, but come on. I think the Bourjos thing has a lot to do with context. An elite defender in CF was what they needed most, and what they needed second most was room for Wong in the infield. They essentially handled their (admittedly small) entire offseason wishlist in one fell swoop.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Feb 19, 2014 -> 03:59 PM) I think that's his ultimate role and I think he has the stuff to be a good one. Still, I'd keep him in the rotation for now and keep him starting and stretched out. I think he can be a starter, but he REALLY needs to work on his command. I would love to see him in AAA learning how to keep the breaking ball down.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Feb 19, 2014 -> 04:16 PM) I would pass. His velocities and stuff didn't impress me when I saw him pitch, and his minor league numbers in the higher levels are pretty mediocre. I think the Sox already DFA'd Liam Hendriks, and then picked him back up. We call him Dylan. Imagine that 1-2 punch at Charlotte though!

Also in the Honorable Mention: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-best-tr...014-off-season/

QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ Feb 19, 2014 -> 04:11 PM) We would be his 4th team this offseaaon. Nobody wants this guy...or everyone does depending how you look at it. But we seemingly had 2 chances at him befire. What changes now? Nothing, perhaps.

It's AL, so we get priority, right? He hasn't done well in the Majors at all, as we know, but he did destroy the minors. Championship for Charlotte, worst case!

I subscribe to the Szymborski/Sullivan school of pitcher risk: we should always be scared of all pitchers getting injured all the time.