Eminor3rd

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Mar 7, 2014 -> 10:35 AM) I cite this article all the time, but if you start increasing catchers' WAR for that, why not start increasing fielders' WPA for (and against) great (poor) plays? http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/venables-winning-defense/ It creates a very, very slippery slope. They showed Brandon Crawford's 5 incredible plays the other day. I've never seen those percentages, but it would be nice if they showed them on the FanGraphs site, just the same as they show the pitch framing stuff. It would also end Ryan Doumit's career as a catcher. That dude is the worst. Well, defenders DO get extra credit for making difficult plays in DRS/UZR, but it doesn't include WPA because WPA is 100% context. A routine grounder can have higher WPA than a diving catch, for example, depending upon what is at stake in the game situation. Pitch framing does seem to straddle a line between context-neutral and context-dependent, though I can't really put my finger on where it falls apart. I wouldn't be surprised if that's why the valuation numbers aren't adding up.

QUOTE (ScottyDo @ Mar 6, 2014 -> 10:23 PM) Not sure if this question makes sense or not but: In terms of runs saved accounting, would those ~2 WAR come out of their pitchers' WAR? I mean, their teams didn't suddenly get roughly 2 wins better by virtue of the fact that someone studied framing, and pitch framing isn't built into the catcher's WAR statistic at all. Basically, I guess what I'm asking is do you think there will be an effort to kind of "pull out" these undeserved strikes from the pitcher's stats so they're not getting credit for their catchers' talents? You've hit on one of the biggest controversies with pitch framing research right now. Intuitively, the "runs" should represent a zero sum situation. The top public saber guys are very divided on framing right now because of this type of thing. Everyone agrees that it's important and that it's been overlooked in the community, but there doesn't seem to be any sort of consensus on valuation.

QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Mar 6, 2014 -> 12:57 PM) Watching this video - His frame reminds me of a young version of former White Sox closer Bobby Jenks. That release point is scary due to potential platoon issues. How is his stuff? Sales and Mastersons are rare.

MLBTR running with it now: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/03/whit...za-viciedo.html

Pito!

QUOTE (Vance Law @ Mar 5, 2014 -> 06:57 PM) I see now that you are not the poster who claimed Moustakas was more valuable because "power hitting 3B is harder to find than a second baseman." That was my initial impetus to join this discussion- That the power hitting 3B had a similar SLG to our second baseman. Feel free to ignore my mention of Moustakas' OPS. But you are making a different argument now. I refuted your claim that Moustakas was better than Beckham in their best seasons as well as in 2013. The opposite was true. Beckham was demonstrably better. Moustakas was demonstrably playing in more games. Moustakas may well end up the better player, or he may never hit. I don't know. If I had to put my money on anything, it'd be that Moustakas won't routinely put up the defensive number he did in 2012, which is currently accounting for the big part of his career value. Skewing it perhaps. But if he ever actually hits, he'll make that point moot. Ahh, I see. Yeah I was barking up the wrong tree. But yeah, Moustakas aside, if the Dodgers need a 2B so badly they end up looking at Beckham, they might as well just use Dee Gordon, who is similarly bad, albeit in different ways.

QUOTE (Vance Law @ Mar 5, 2014 -> 03:52 PM) There are lots of ways to cherry pick the numbers, and you have done that. If you want to compare Beckham and Moustakas' respective best seasons using only fWAR, you are making an apples to oranges comparison. Moustakas needed 149 games and 614 PA to accumulate 3.1 WAR while Beckham only had 103 games and 430 PA to accrue 2.5 WAR On a per game or per PA basis, Beckham was the better and more valuable player. On top of it, he was playing out of position at 3rd base. The exact same argument (excluding the Beckham at 3B) applies to 2013 when Beckham played 103 games to Moustakas' 136 but still only bested Beckham 1.1 to 1.0 on raw fWAR. Beckham on average was the better player last year. Moustakas is a "power hitting" third baseman who hasn't yet topped a .708 OPS. All of his value thus far is tied up in his defense and I for one tend to think his +18 in 2012 is an anomaly or downright incorrect. I'll believe it when he repeats it. It is silly to judge a player by the role that the media assigns him. His ability or lack of ability to be a "power hitter" is just one factor of his value. A run saved is a run earned. How is citing OPS and "power hitting third baseman" less "apple & oranges" than citing fWAR -- a league-adjusted, era-adjusted, park-adjusted, context neutral statistic that is designed precisely for the purpose of being "apples to apples?" But the point about playing time is valid. WAR is a counting stat. So we should use career rates, which should address all concerns of arbitrary endpoints and outliers (Moustakas +18 2012): Beckham has been a better offensive contributor by 3 runs per season (-8.18 RAA/500PA against -11.45) Moustakas has been a better defender by a 7.7 runs per season (8.3 UZR/150 against 0.6) The difference? Moustakas has been a better player by 4.7 runs per season. And this is beside the fact that Moustakas is almost exactly two years younger with almost exactly 2 years less experience, which leads to the very reasonable implication that he has more upside. So, Moustakas has been better to date and has more upside. What am I missing? How is Moustakas not demonstrably > Beckham?

From FanGraphs chat today: Comment From Concerned White Sox Fan What do you expect from Jose Abreu? 12:21 Dave Cameron: Everything I’ve heard so far has been positive. I’d say maybe top 10-20 hitter in MLB. That's high praise coming from him. He's cynical about everything.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Mar 5, 2014 -> 01:18 PM) Or Chris Carter Or, if you combine them... Trayce Thompson!

I think this was BEFORE he went out and got Corey Hart AND Logan Morrison.

Haha nice.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Mar 5, 2014 -> 01:13 PM) But similarly, Beckham outperformed Moustakas with the bats last year. He was injured a portion of the time so it didn't pile up the fWAR, but to borrow a phrase, the difference between 77 and 88 wRC+ is nothing to sneeze at. And yet that better hitting wasn't even enough to end up with a better fWAR number because Moustakas added so much more value on defense. Beckham only played 33 fewer games, so it's reasonable that he may have picked up another 0.2 fWAR or something, but whichever way you shake it, they both had similarly mediocre seasons. The difference is that Moustakas is younger and one year removed from a 3.1 fWAR season, whereas Beckham is four years removed from even eclipsing 1.0 fWAR

QUOTE (Vance Law @ Mar 5, 2014 -> 01:16 PM) Not exactly. A more accurate way of describing it would be Beckham ('09) and Moustakas ('12) have each only had one good season in their careers. If you're going to go there, you have to note that Moustakas has played 2.5 seasons, and Beckham has played just under 5. So we could say almost half of Moustakas' career is good seasons, and only 20% of Beckham's. There are lots of ways to cherry pick the numbers. The reality is that of his two full seasons, Moustakas' best season is significantly better than Beckham's best season (which was four years ago and not even a full season), and his bad season is better than all of Beckham's four other seasons. They have both been dissapointing on some level, but it seems pretty cut and dried to me that Beckham is worse.

QUOTE (staxx @ Mar 5, 2014 -> 11:08 AM) As time goes on, i feel like its less and less likely that we draft Turner. I could honestly see us taking Jackson over him. I think I'd be okay with that (assuming everything looked like it does today). I think the reality is that the most precious tool for position players, in this offensive environment, is the hit tool. To me, middling speed and power is fine if you have a plus hit tool, even in the first round. There just aren't more than a few guys in each draft that seem to have it. Without it, you're Keenyn Walker.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Mar 5, 2014 -> 11:59 AM) So basically he's been demonstrably better than him based almost entirely on his defensive performance in 2012? That's the plurality, yes, but it's more accurate to say he's been better because of ALL of 2012. The difference between 80 and 89 wRC+ is nothing to sneeze at. Further, last year's defensive ratings corroborate the idea that he's a true talent ~10-12 defender, which is a level Beckham has never touched. EDIT: Another way to look at it: Moustakas had a rough rookie year, in which he substantially outhit Beckham's THIRD year in the majors. He then had a breakout sophomore season in which he was better than any season Beckham has ever had, including his rookie year. Finally, he had a rough third year that added up to marginally more value than Beckham's "injury-interrupted comeback" last year.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Mar 5, 2014 -> 12:03 PM) I'm surprised McDade is still in the org. He's behind three 1B's in Chicago and at least one in the minors (Wilkins), possibly two. I'd rather see Wilkins and Black get time. Omogrosso I thought might stick around longer, but he's behind at least Webb and Petricka for maybe one roster spot in the bullpen, possibly also (indirectly) behind Leesman and Rienzo effectively. He's a long shot, though he certainly could be in Chicago during the season. Well, two of those three 1Bs are gone after this season.

QUOTE (sox2013 @ Mar 5, 2014 -> 10:48 AM) McDade played every game I believe. I saw Bassitt pitch on Monday (he got the W), saw Omogrosso get W on Sunday. Frazier went in on Friday. Looks like Phipps, Robles and Smith didn't play. Welcome to the board!

QUOTE (hi8is @ Mar 4, 2014 -> 11:51 PM) Oouuuhhh oouuhhh! Pick me!!! Pick me!!!! POOP

As of today, I am hoping we stay away from Turner. The tools are loud, but the pitchers seem like safer developmental bets with similar upside.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Mar 5, 2014 -> 09:23 AM) Do you want to bat 2nd tomorrow? I'm not enough of a grinder.

QUOTE (Vance Law @ Mar 4, 2014 -> 04:10 PM) Beckham career SLG .380 Moustakas .385 and Beckham out-slugged him last year Moustakas has been demonstrably better than Beckham. 2011 Moustakas: 84 wRC+, -1.1DRAA, 0.2 fWAR Beckham: 72 wRC+, 4.9 DRAA, 0.5 fWAR 2012 Moustakas: 89 wRC+, 18.0 DRAA, 3.1 fWAR Beckham: 80 wRC+, 3.7 DEF runs, 0.9 fWAR 2013: Moustakas: 77 wRC+, 9.0 DRAA, 1.1 fWAR Beckham: 88 wRC+, 1.0 DRAA, 1.0 fWAR

I like where this thread is going

QUOTE (SoxFan1 @ Mar 4, 2014 -> 06:07 PM) That was the best vacation I've ever taken. Phoenix is beautiful. Camelback Ranch is an amazing facility. The weather is great. I hiked Camelback Mountain and it might have been the coolest experience of my life. And Old Town Scottsdale and ASU make for some fun nights. Legitimately depressed to be back in Chicago. Yeah man, I felt the same way last year. Such an underrated vacation experience. I'll go do that again before I ever go to LA or Orlando or whatever.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Mar 4, 2014 -> 05:08 PM) This is about the one area where we disagree at all because I still think that Viciedo has a good chance to develop into a good hitter, but at his current numbers, he's a platoon partner. That was referring to Gordon Beckham, srry 4 confus But yes, I also do think nothing of Viciedo. I will (very) gladly eat it if he turns into something, but I don't think he can see the ball well enough to recognize what it's going to do. Hacker 4 Lyfe

QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Mar 4, 2014 -> 04:52 PM) No, but I think Viciedo will be the DH and we need another OF for 2015. Gordan Beckham does not suck. Maybe compared to what was expected of him, but he is at least a big league average player. With Sanchez, Johnson, and Anderson in the wings and no OF prospects that can hit, I am not sure we need Semien more. But, yes there is probably no way that deal gets made, more wishful thinking on my part. He isn't average though, that's the problem. Career fWAR by season since his rookie year: 2.5, 0.6, 0.5, 0.9, 1.0 A league average player is 2.0 fWAR. He's been substantially below average for 4 consecutive seasons, making up 80% of his career. His career wRC+ is 86, or 14% below league average. UZR grades himout as about scratch on defense, and even if you think he's a little better than that, it's not nearly enough to turn him into an average player. EDIT: this is Gordon Beckham, for clarity. He is not just disappointing to those with high expectations, he is an all out bustaroo