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QUOTE (raBBit @ Feb 27, 2014 -> 05:16 PM) My favorite was when he cited Viciedo's speed as the reason he shouldn't DH. You have to wonder if he watches the games. There really is no reason he should have his job. I mean what does he really add? Lol

QUOTE (Dunt @ Feb 27, 2014 -> 01:14 PM) B/c the 2 hole is for the best situational hitter and he doesnt strike me as the best situational hitter. I challenge your assertion that the 2 hole is for the best situational hitter. I know that's the traditional mindset, but there's a ton of research showing that the 2 hitter should be among your best run producers, based on the types of RISP situations that are most common across all nine spots.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 27, 2014 -> 11:36 AM) Better yet, HEWHOSHALLNOTBESIGNED

QUOTE (Dunt @ Feb 27, 2014 -> 11:09 AM) Avisail should be batting 3 or 5 for the rest of his career. Putting him in the 2 hole is stupid. Why?

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 27, 2014 -> 11:19 AM) You mean HEWHOSHALLNOTBENAMED? Lol I actually like the idea of that being his nickname around here forever.

QUOTE (elrockinMT @ Feb 26, 2014 -> 06:03 PM) There was a time when folks were drooling all over themselves for Jesus Montero, a Yankee catching prospect. Now they mention some minor league guy and want to dump Gordon Beckham for an unproven prospect. Amazing Yes, because Jesus Montero is worse than Gordon Beckham, all minor league prospects will be worse than Gordon Beckham.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Feb 27, 2014 -> 10:46 AM) I'm not sure what you're asking. With this sample HR accounts for 47% of the predictive factor in the runs a pitcher gave up. Add BABIP into the mix and it's 69%. All you need to do is plug their values into the equation and it will show the predicted runs scored. Right, I'm saying that since those are such high factors in runs allowed, then if you can do the same analysis for what accounts for HR and BABIP totals, and find a significant result, you could forecast regression for pitchers. Of course, maybe that's what xFIP does already, not sure.

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Feb 27, 2014 -> 10:07 AM) It has produced nothing, but that hasnt stopped them from trading overhyped prospects like Montero. That one didnt work out for them because Michael Pineda's arm fell off, but it still happens for the Yankees Well yeah, with the Mariners.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Feb 27, 2014 -> 10:07 AM) I ran the numbers this morning and was shocked. I looked at variables predicting runs given up by pitchers over the last two years. The R2 was 47.5 for HR alone, 69.6 for HR,BABIP; 82.2 for HR, BABIP, BB; 86 for HR,BABIP,BB,HR/9 and 90 for HR,BABIP, BB, HR/9 and FIP. All of the models had a sig. of .01 or lower. This was using a stepwise linear regression. Granted it should have gone up when including HR/9 and FIP as one of the internal variables there is HR which is 47.55 of the variability on it's own. So in the two year sample (i only included pitchers with a combined 300 innings in the last two years) there is a high predictability of runs scored against a pitcher with HR, BABIP and BB. I guess FIP is a very good predictor of pitchers performance in giving up runs. I'm going to run a larger sample for a lrger number of years to see if it still holds true over time. If you can isolate factors that account for the variability of HR and BABIP, you may be stumbling upon a revolution.

QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ Feb 27, 2014 -> 08:12 AM) Since we're gloating I am even amazed with myself at how much better and more active this board has been since my crusade killed off the catch all. I was right. Some threads are open too long still but all in all it has been good. You mean in that Ervin Santana has taken over every thread instead of just one

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Feb 27, 2014 -> 09:19 AM) I'd like to see the overall numbers on that, just to see which is which. The 2 hole is one of the most important spots in the lineup, and I know you wouldn't disagree with that, but you also want to see a guy who can draw a walk there. I think Garcia hitting there might be the best of a bad situation, but he would ideally hit about 6th. I really hope Semien can be at least a .260/.340/.410 kind of player at the big league level because that would slot in really well at the 2 hole. It's in The Book if you have that lying around.

I didn't realize Montas was still considered a potential starter. Awesome list, btw.

QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Feb 27, 2014 -> 07:36 AM) I wouldn't be too upset with Garcia in the 2 hole, but I'd rather see him hit 3rd where he can be a bit more of a run producer. If Beckham can pull it together, he is a perfect fit for the 2 hole. Two hole gets tons more run producing opportunities than people think. It's arguably more important than the 3 hole in terms of raw ABs with runners in scoring position. The problem is, of course, that we need OBP at the top, and Avi is a hacker. I really really really hope he learns to recognize balls and strikes, because those little pop ups aren;t going to keep falling for singles forever.

Relevant: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/howd-we-do-a-year-ago/

QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Feb 26, 2014 -> 04:46 PM) Somebody other than Ervin Santana? This is even MORE correct than wite's answer of the exact correct pitcher.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Feb 26, 2014 -> 04:41 PM) I can't find numbers that match that exactly, but it's incredibly similar to Sale's career numbers. I'm honestly not sure Sox fans appreciate just how talented Chris Sale is. If he stays healthy - and I can't knock on enough wood - he should end up with multiple Cy Youngs. Correct! Those are Chris Sale's numbers as a starter, his RP numbers removed. That's what makes that line incredible -- it's WAY easier to pitch well one inning at a time.

QUOTE (pittshoganerkoff @ Feb 26, 2014 -> 04:12 PM) Unless they package someone else. I believe the Yankees are also looking for bullpen help. However, how much help would Elmore be for the Yankees unless they're just looking for depth? Well, their everyday second baseman is Brian Roberts, and their every day SS is Derek Jeter, both of which are injury prone. They're also betting on a Kelly Johnson bounceback that may not come, so I'd think the Yankees are in great need of IF depth. If you think about it, Cervelli/Romine are essentially the C versions of Jake Elmore: pre-arb depth with some small upside. I don;t see why the Yankees wouldn't at least consider Elmore + a guy like Duente Heath for one of those two guys.

Aside from Buerhle, mine is actually Matt Thornton. I don't know why but I really latched onto him. I even have a shirsey, lol.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Feb 26, 2014 -> 02:35 PM) It would really be selling low on Beckham (who showed some improvement with the bat) to trade him for one of these backup catchers, none of whom is a top prospect. Keppinger? Fine. It would also hurt our D a lot for Keppinger to play 2B. Selling low on Beckham? Do you still think this is just a four season-long slump? The improvement was 103 games of 88 wRC+. Also, if he was recently showed improvement, wouldn't it be selling high?

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Feb 26, 2014 -> 02:40 PM) He's had 110 plate appearances at the AA level. That is not a guy the Sox should even be considering unless it's at the deadline and he's been having a good year. Unless something comes up in the next 3-4 weeks, I'd rather just have Phlowglieto take the spot. Oh I wasn't assuming he'd even sniff the Majors this year. But the Sox don't exactly need to get a 2014 Major Leaguer in return for a member of their glut of bad second basemen

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Feb 26, 2014 -> 01:30 PM) I'd argue that the best pitcher - starter or reliever - of the modern era is Mariano Rivera. His numbers: 8.22 K/9 2.01 BB/9 52.5% GB% Also, guess who this is: 9.26 K/9 2.13 BB/9 45.7% GB

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Feb 26, 2014 -> 01:30 PM) I think they've done quite a bit of this and it's where they derive the statistics from. So many of these variables show such little significance towards the runs scored with such high variability that it's impossible to say that one is more important than the other, but it essentially follows basic guidelines and sounds logic. 1) A strikeout is the best guarantee for an out. 2) A walk is never an out. 3) If the batter hits it, you prefer it to be on the ground because it's almost never a home run and the batter will usually not advance beyond 1B. 4) A flyball is preferable to a line drive, but those can be dangerous. 5) You do not ever want to give up line drives. Your ideal pitcher is one who has good command, gets a fair amount of strike outs, and keeps the ball on the ground. I'd argue that the best pitcher - starter or reliever - of the modern era is Mariano Rivera. His numbers: 8.22 K/9 2.01 BB/9 52.5% GB% Those can be supplemented, and you can be great without 1 of them, but I generally think you need at least two of them to be a great pitcher. You left out most shocking number: 0.50 HR/9

QUOTE (ptatc @ Feb 26, 2014 -> 01:00 PM) I know that GB% alone isn't a key factor. Maybe it's K/BB or K% and GB%. I think the best place to start is to look at the pitchers who gave up the least runs and do a step wise linear regression to see what factors pop up. Well, K and BB are two of the pillars of FIP. That's not to say GB isn't important, it's just that it's context-dependent and thus a relative factor. DIPS theory is essentially trying to give you as complete a picture of the pitcher alone as it directly contributes to runs saved. Other important metrics are derived statistics and are critical for seeing how a player fits into your own situation, but aren't useful in comparing players in an absolute sense.

That last thing Gary Sanchez needs to do is sacrifice an ounce of anything to gain some pop. I would read any weight gain on his part as a big negative until he demonstrates otherwise. He's another hacker with whose defensive improvements have "impressed" Yankees scouts. Maybe it's real, maybe not, but he seems like he's got a ton of the flaws that we already have in abundance on this team.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 26, 2014 -> 12:19 PM) Would you take Arrieta and Strope or Avisail Garcia? Garcia. Please explain the relevance of this random question.