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Hawk is gonna sell Abreu so hard. "I tell ya, Stony, this kid has a chance to be a MONSTER. The sound it makes off this kid's bat... I say the best three right-handed hitters we've seen over the last twenty years are TheBigHurtFrankThomas, Manny Ramirez, and Miguel Cabrera -- this guy has a chance to be as good as ALL OF EM." "I don't know about the other league, but the three liveliest bats in this league are Cespedes, Viciedo, and Abreu -- and we got TWO OF EM"

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Oct 21, 2013 -> 02:26 PM) I' think they'll bump payroll up short-term. Why and how? Our 2013 opening day payroll was like $118m or something

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Oct 21, 2013 -> 02:20 PM) For all the complaining people did about De Aza striking out, Fowler strikes out more often. It would also appear that he struggles just as much as De Aza does in CF. He is also more expensive and is a free agent at the end of the year. This seems like it would be a poor move. Gets on base a lot though. Sexy 13% career walk rate/.365 OBP. But yeah, from what I understand, his defense limits his value. I'd like him if he wasn't a pending free agent. Not sure what kind of contract he'd command.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Oct 21, 2013 -> 01:51 PM) And that still doesn't convince me that it will still help sell tickets unless Abreu helps win ball games. I agree.

I'm guessing they extend Quintana and sign some short termers, there just aren't a lot of good fits for big time stuff. I put $80-90m

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Oct 21, 2013 -> 01:25 PM) Do people really think this move is gonna help sell tickets? Your average fan will probably have never even heard of Abreu. Until the franchise spends millions marketing it.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Oct 20, 2013 -> 03:54 PM) Even then, everyone has been consistently saying Despaigne (played in Mexico recently, on loan) and Cepeda were more exciting/better raw tools/bat speed/light tower power. I feel like instead of McGwire, Bonds, Ryan Howard or Miggy Cabrera or one of those comps...he'll be more like a RH version of Fred McGriff. From what I understand, Despaigne specifically was a super hitchy swing that scouts have felt only works on low level pitching.Could be getting that mixed up with someone else.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Oct 21, 2013 -> 11:49 AM) Yeah, I don't have a problem with Salty, but I think his price will be driven up by this catcher's market. Very possible if it's true that BOS, NYY, CHC, and TEX are all going to be in the McCann hunt.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Oct 21, 2013 -> 11:47 AM) Would you rather spend $10-12 million a year on McCann for the next 6 years or $12-14 on AJ for the next two? I'd MUCH rather have McCann in that scenario. The prob is it's going to be more like $18m

QUOTE (iamshack @ Oct 21, 2013 -> 11:44 AM) Well I guess that depends on whether you believe we have anyone that can develop into the long-term solution at C. Given the beating catchers take, I think it's foolish to acquire an above-average or elite one via FA. You've either got to develop one yourself, or go with a marginal veteran at a reasonable price. I don't think Phegley or Flowers is the answer, and I don't want to spend what it is going to take to sign McCann, given his age. So sign a marginal stopgap and draft a few this year and next and hope one can stick. Well, that's why I started that Saltalamacchia thread. He's 28, good defensively, and might only cost $8m or so a year. That's a guy we can live with for 5 years even if his bat isn't quite as good as it was this year. If it comes down to AJ, I'd almost rather sign Geovany Soto in case he bounces back because he's young enough thaty we might extend him.

QUOTE (bbilek1 @ Oct 21, 2013 -> 11:18 AM) AJ Pierzysnki is going to be a great value for whoever signs him. The fact that he is a lefthanded and plays a position we suck at... QUOTE (iamshack @ Oct 21, 2013 -> 11:19 AM) I honestly think AJ would bring back a sense of focus that we lost last year. I know you quants don't really believe in that stuff so much, but I just think he keeps people on their toes, he knows how to play the game, and he brings some accountability that we are desperately lacking both from our manager and in terms of player leadership. I agree with all of this. The problem is that he's old, and we need to be developing a long-term solution at C to be ready when the team is competitive. If we signed AJ, it would essentially be kicking the can down the road. We'd get a decent year out of him but we'd have the same hole to fill as before, and without having given at bats to anyone who might fill it. I'm not saying Flowers/Phegley are the answer, but if we're not going to get someone else, they need at bats to try to get better.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Oct 21, 2013 -> 11:11 AM) Bringing back AJ for a year wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. The catcher experiment failed last year, and I am not sure that it would be much better next year. I would phrase it just like that -- wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. But if it comes to that and it isn't after we've already added at least 3 more upgrades, I'd rather save that money and put it into player dev or international signing penalties or something. Signing AJ only makes sense if he's the final stopgap in an offseason where we unexpectedly got competitive right away.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Oct 21, 2013 -> 08:53 AM) Either of those would be an interesting option, but I would definitely think Lawrie makes sense as a guy we could target. They definitely have a strong need for pitching, and the fact that the Sox can send a tolerable player or two back who can cover 3b for them cheaply in Gillaspie so that it's not creating a mighty hole in their roster could be a key in making it work. I'm not sure why SEA or TOR would be motivated to trade those guys at all. TOR needs pitching, but they can come across that much easier than another 3B.

Brandon Webb?!

QUOTE (scs787 @ Oct 19, 2013 -> 05:09 PM) And his club house presence, which I think this team is missing. Beckham hit .210 w/RISP compared to to .338 for Phillips. Like I said, I'm certainly not calling for it. It was brought up and I said I wouldn't hate it. I'll just say this again, maybe it got buried in my last post: performance with RISP has little to no correlation with future performance with RISP Do you know what Brandon Phillips' career average with RISP is? .284 Do you know what Brandon Phillips' career overall average is? .271 Fluctuation are all because of small sample data. Given enough time, guys look the same with RISP as they do all the other times.

QUOTE (ChiSoxFan05 @ Oct 19, 2013 -> 10:06 AM) He's a career ..280 hitter and he hits very well with RISP. Not to mention his defense is solid. A solid-but-not-great batting average is not nearly as important as OBP/SLG numbers. Performance with RISP has been shown, without fail, not to accurately predict future performance with RISP. Gordon Beckham's defense is also solid. Career numbers are important, but with a guy that's entering his mid 30's, recency has a stronger effect, and you can expect performance to decline much more often than it improves or remains steady. And he's got a contract attached to him that will overpay him going forward.

QUOTE (ChiSoxFan05 @ Oct 18, 2013 -> 09:46 PM) Because he's Brandon Phillips. Can hit leadoff, second, third, fourth, even fifth. Do you realize what he hit this year? .261/.310/.396. We don't want a .310 OBP batting first or second, and we don't want a .396 SLG batting third, fourth, or fifth.

QUOTE (Feeky Magee @ Oct 18, 2013 -> 05:59 PM) Right so first of all, I'm nowhere near a baseball expert, I'm relatively new to the sport but I thought this would be a fun challenge to try to get myself used to payroll stuff, WAR, evaluating talent etc. So I did some reading, here and elsewhere, on free agent talent/potential trade talent/what potential signings might be paid, and came up with this plan, presuming Abreu is done and dusted. (Bear in mind that I have little or no clue on batting order and who you should bat where.) - Sign Tanaka for 6/$54m + $35m posting fee. - Trade Santiago and Beckham for Headley, sign him to 5/$75m. - Sign Saltalamacchia to 3/$36m. - Non-tender Gordon Beckham. 1. De Aza, CF 2. Ramirez, SS 3. Dunn, DH 4. Abreu, 1B 5. A. Garcia, RF 6. Headley, 3B 7. Viciedo, LF 8. Semien, 2B 9. Saltalamacchia, C Sale Tanaka Quintana Johnson Danks Payroll 2014 (assuming all new contracts are equally spaced, like Danks'): Dunn - 15 Headley - 15 Danks - 14.25 Saltalamacchia - 12 Arb players - approx 12 from what I can make out Ramirez - 9.5 Tanaka - 9 (almost 15 if you factor in his posting fee over the course of his contract) Quintana/Johnson/bullpen/utility player minimum - 8 (based on what seems to be the standard $500k for pre-arb players + Lindstrom's buyout) Keppinger - 4 Sale - 3.5 So that'd be a little over $101m, or $107m if you counted Tanaka's posting fee as $6m per year. That'd leave room of $18m/$12m on last year's $119m payroll which you could spend some or all of it on bullpen free agents/trying to upgrade maybe De Aza or Viciedo. But even as it is above, compared to last year's roster I think you'd be talking almost certainly (large) upgrades at 1B, C and 3B, with strong potential upgrades at 2B (I like Semien over Beckham) and second starter (I like Tanaka to have a better ERA than Peavy anyway). And then, depending on your viewpoint, a possible downgrade with Johnson over Santiago (though I really like Erik). From what I read it seems as though a lot of Saltalamacchia's improvement is down to BABIP and so he probably seems due for a regression. I'd much rather McCann (even though he seems to be roughly set in a pretty solid decline year on year), but obviously considering my plan has two more big salary splashes after Abreu that'd be off the table, or even Pierzynski, but given his age and the likelihood of the Sox competing straight away it's probably not wise. Even if Saltalamacchia regressed and wasn't quite worth his contract in terms of WAR, it should be a distinct upgrade from the catastrophe at catcher this season. I know the title says realistic and this probably isn't really realistic since the thought seems to be that Abreu was the big free agency splash (I saw Merkin saying something along those lines), as well as the doubt that the Sox would spend so much money on a starting pitcher, given how the starting pitching is seen as the least of the team's worries. But I certainly think it's a heavy improvement on last year (I would say all 5 of the new hitters over last year's pre-trade deadline regular line-up would be place to hit better, and I think the rotation could outperform what last year's did before Peavy was traded. That'd leave the bullpen to sort out, with the extra dollars from last year's payroll, I haven't really read up too much about bullpen options. I guess the alternative would be to avoid plugging a hole for the sake of it and to wait until free agency next year, again I haven't really read too much on 2014 free agents. I'm most likely talking s*** overall and have probably left stuff out in terms of salary, but overall thoughts, fellas? It's a good team, but that would be insane if we landed both Abreu and Tanaka. JR is obviously letting the budget go a bit on international stuff, but I cannot see him throw $50m at an NPB team just to sign another pitcher. Also, I think $100m is probably our absolute ceiling for next year, and I don't necessarily think it shouldn't be. When you throw so many guys together at once, sometimes it take them a bit to get used to playing with each other -- that's a ton of money to risk without having a clue if it's going to pay off. For example, is Abreu legit? I'm not sure I'd commit all that money if I wasn't sure if I was going to be a bat short or not. Third, I'm not sure why everyone seems to think the Padres would trade Headley for Beckham and Santiago. Beckham is practically worthless, and while Santiago should have some solid value, don't you think someone would best that offer? If that's the best they can do, I'd have to believe they'd hold onto him and hope he could re-establish value at the deadline. But, I like the thought process. I'd make all of those transactions in a vacuum, I just don't think they're really realistic. Also, are you non-tendering Beckham or trading him?

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Oct 18, 2013 -> 04:19 PM) Politics and s*** QUOTE (almagest @ Oct 18, 2013 -> 04:20 PM) Wildly implausible trades and lineups And what are these things, I ask, if not fuel for making fun of each other?

QUOTE (scs787 @ Oct 18, 2013 -> 04:04 PM) But, but, everyone will make fun of me I should just check the facts first instead of looking it up mid reply. If we aren't making fun of each other, what will we post about?

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Oct 18, 2013 -> 03:21 PM) I wish I had been paying attention, I totally would have said that I'm really good at doing this at the exact same time you were posting. lol

QUOTE (scs787 @ Oct 18, 2013 -> 03:05 PM) Leury(or Beckham if is Semien is the starter at 2B) can play all 3 INF spots, and Danks can play all 3 OF spots. The Kepp/Gillaspie platoon would have to be blown up though, which everyone wants anyway. EDIT: man lately everything I've been saying already gets said while I'm in the process of posting. wite is a pro at that.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Oct 18, 2013 -> 02:50 PM) Seems like a waste of a roster spot to me. They both only play 1b, and Abreu should be there most of the time. This was my thought as well. With all the pitchers we keep nowadays, there's little room for anyone on the bench that doesn't have some versatility.

I won't mind if we sign no more big FAs. I'd like to see a trade of some young pitching for young hitting of some kind, and then fill in the gaps with trqadeable vets on 1 year deals.

When a guy swings at so many bad pitches, you wonder if it's his approach or his eye. What I saw out of Viciedo this year was a lot of awkward pitch taking, leading me to believe that he was legitimately working on his approach. Alas, he still ended up taking a bunch of meatballs and swinging at a bunch of crap. This makes me fear that he just doesn't have the ability to recognize pitches fast enough, and he has to be a guess hitter. Guess hitters with good hands are going to look real good for stretches, and real bad for others. Unfortunately, the bad stretches are going to be much longer and much more frequent. The pitchers aren't guessing.