QuickJones81

Here are some interesting names in my book: Brandon Wood Omar Luna Yangervis Solarte Kleininger Teran Walter Ibarra Mario Lisson

Ifran Becerra was with the DSL White Sox last season, stats weren't bad. He'll be 22 next year so he's getting up there for that level.

I personally have Johnson ahead of Snodgress, whereas they are higher on the latter.

Not impressed with the new MLB.com prospect rankings. There isn't a single White Sox prospect in the Top 100, and the organization Top 20 has me scratching my head as well. 1. Trayce Thompson 2. Courtney Hawkins 3. Charlie Leesman 4. Nestor Molina 5. Keenyn Walker 6. Scott Snodgress 7. Carlos Sanchez 8. Erik Johnson 9. Jared Mitchell 10. Keon Barnum 11. Josh Phegley 12. Jacob Petricka 13. Jhan Marinez 14. Kevan Smith 15. Simon Castro 16. Tyler Saladino 17. Brandon Brennan 18. Andre Rienzo 19. Marcus Semien 20. Chris Beck Other notables from position ranks: Keon Barnum #10 1B Carlos Sanchez #7 2B

I was a bit surprised when I saw this. Anybody have any inside knowledge or additional insight on why they let him go? http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/08/mino...ry-infante.html

QUOTE (JoeCoolMan24 @ Aug 23, 2012 -> 09:09 PM) Erik Johnson got rocked. Todd Kibby with a very nice night (minus the 4 BB). Disappointing night for Johnson. Unfortunately with his BABIP being where its at, there's probably more of those in the future as he regresses back towards the mean. Still high on this guy big time though. Snodgress is running real high on the "luck" factor as well. Wouldn't be suprised if he had some struggles ahead.

This is only his first season in pro ball as well, as we was drafted in the 24th round of this years draft. He's on my list of pet prospects whom I like, but most people don't.

QUOTE (danman31 @ Aug 16, 2012 -> 09:56 PM) My experience is that there are too many other factors for a model like that to be consistent. I'd be curious what other factors are included. Park factors for example can be extremely important on a player's season. Then you have a guy like Jose Bautista, who managed to have a high walk rate in the DSL, a league that typically does not have a lot of patient hitters. That's another league factor like you mentioned. He had major control problems in his short Bristol stint. How does he slide in just one spot behind Leyer who showed solid control with Bristol? Control is a problem for Bautista, but he has a high strikeout rate, and gives up few hits. Leyer doesn't have great control either, but gives up more hits, though he does have a betterr go/ao. Hits are more damaging then walks, so that is part of what brings the two closer together. Park factor isn't directly addressed. I accounted for that by using the league level model with the theory that if you are first comparing the prospect to other peers who play in the same parks, park factor isn't as big of a player and is essentially cancelled out. Then comparing historical models across leagues I translate stats from any league up to AAA.

QUOTE (danman31 @ Aug 16, 2012 -> 09:26 PM) I meant 2010, I said with WS after all. He does max out as a role player, which is exactly why he's not a well-rated prospect and shouldn't be in the top 20. Castro is already in AAA, which I said, so he wouldn't be a 25 year old AA pitcher. None of his 3 AAA stints have reached 30 innings, it's not fair to judge his career worth on short stints like that. Vance's "history" as a starter is irrelevant because he doesn't profile as a starter and won't remain one. They're just giving him more innings. I don't see how that makes him more valuable. I also think you're fundamentally viewing prospects incorrectly if you're referring to it as 'trolling through rookie league and A.' The level of a player doesn't say anything about talent by itself. In most cases it just means the player is younger. When you factor in age, talent and performance the level matters, but by itself it doesn't say a lot. I guess my choice of words was wrong, but what I meant by needing to look at rookie and A is that is where the new faces are at. The system hasn't been strong for years, and the players at the upper levels for the most part are products of this poor system. The new faces are the chances for improvement and future strength. That is what I meant by trolling through the low levels. I am a bit of a stats/data nerd because of my background in engine development, and I have taken some of the methods for data reduction and second and third level statistics and applied it to baseball, specifically white sox prospects. Needless to say my wife things I'm a giant loser, but i get enjoyment out of it, so i really don't care. In essence the spreadsheet I have set up takes in the statistics, factors in age, hysteresis/trajectory including a subjective bias towards improvement with progression, as well as a model for comparison against peers at their level so that I don't fall prey to the biasing that some leagues and levels naturally bring (i.e. DSL being completely dominated by pitching). It ends up grounding a low level player for a quick comparison to how another player is performing at say AAA. It's my own way of assessing the talent without being able to see them with my eyes. It's definitely a work in progress, but it's how I came to my top 20.

Hopefully this is a turning point for Mitchell. Looks like DeMichele, Black, & Smith are having good nights as well. Barnum is out of the lineup again tonight, is he hurt?

QUOTE (danman31 @ Aug 16, 2012 -> 05:35 PM) I can't say I agreed with much in the above post. Leyer is the only prospect of the bunch you named. Short seems fringy because of his mostly mediocre numbers throughout his career. He had one good season in 2011 with Winston-Salem. Other than that fairly average. He had a .318 OBP in AA last year, that's not good enough. I don't like jumping on the rookie ball guys yet. Remember Kevan Smith? The thing with Petricka is that you can make him a reliever where his secondary stuff is less important and his fastball can receive a velocity jump. I don't get how a guy like Castro, who has shown good walk and groundball rates in AAA, sits below a 23 year old in rookie ball (Grabe). Also, what does Kevin Vance have that another A ball reliever like Terance Marin doesn't? Short actually had his best year with WS in 2010, and his year last year is the latest we have to go off of except for the few game this season. He maxes out as a role player to me, which is a testament to the state of the system. Castro has a fine walk rate, but his BAA is horrible (.317, .333, .333 in 3 AAA stints in 3 years) bringing his WHIP up too high, and he can't back it up with the strikeout rate that originally got him noticed in his younger days, which leads me to believe he will have a hard time getting out of jams at the next level. If he doesn't get promoted this year, you're looking at 25+ yr old AA pitcher. He's lost prospect status in my eyes and will max out as a call up spot starter to temporarily fill a gap due to injury. I'm a Marin fan as well, and his numbers are extremely similar to Vance. Vance gets the nod from me because he's almost a full year younger and has history as a starter, which is far more valuable. Unfortunately for us if we're going to look for talent we have to do a lot of trolling through rookie league and A. Charlotte is nearly void of any real prospects and birmingham only has about 6 guys who I have much interest in.

QUOTE (JoeCoolMan24 @ Aug 16, 2012 -> 04:17 PM) Snodgress with a human outing. Him and Erik Johnson have taken major steps in W-S. Noticed this as well, Johnson in particular has shot up in my own rankings.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Aug 16, 2012 -> 12:27 PM) Welcome to the board! Brandon Short and Kevin Vance are pretty big surprises to me on your list. Same with Leyer and Grabe, though to lesser extents. Would you care to expound on your thinking on them? And what info do you have on Bautista? Thanks for the welcome! Here were my thoughts: Grabe: Has been doing pretty good for Bristol this year, in the ~80th percentile for rookie league. From the numbers he can hit for average, has some pop in his bat, strikes out only 18% of the time, and has a decent walks to strikeouts ratio. He’s a dark horse for me. Leyer: Under 20 and already to low A. He yields a high strikeout rate, with a decent walk rate. He appears to leave the ball in the zone too often as evidenced by his high BAA. Short: Injured for most of the year with the torn labrum but he’s off to a great start at high A in 7 games back. Strikeouts are a problem, but he does show pop and has demonstrated it as high as AA in previous seasons. His walk rate leaves something to be desired as well. He could contribute off the bench as early as next year in my mind. Bautista: Currently out for the year with an arm injury, but had two good starts at Bristol and in previous seasons at DSL showed himself to be a very hard pitcher to make contact on, with a high strikeout rate. His control looks to need work, as his walks/ip is not great. Plus at the age of 20, he’s a good project to stash near the bottom of the list. We’ll have to wait and see how he bounces back from injury. Vance: Young, high K / low walk guy. Can start, but could also be valuable bullpen arm some day, and has held a closers role in the past. Has seemingly done better with each progression in the organization. I struggle putting people like Petricka on the list who have great stuff, but can’t seem to put it together on the field. I’m more about letting the data speak. I also probably should place Castro a lot higher, but something leaves me apprehensive after his numbers have fallen a bit going to AAA. I'm big on how a guy does when he gets promoted, I believe that says a lot about career projection and ceilings.

Does anyone know what happened to Luis Polanco? It looks like he hasn't played since mid June.

1. Courtney Hawkins 2. Trayce Thompson 3. Erik Johnson 4. Andre Rienzo 5. Carlos Sanchez 6. Keenyn Walker 7. Keon Barnum 8. Scott Snodgress 9. Joey DeMichele 10. Jared Mitchell 11. Brandon Short 12. Kevin Vance 13. Nestor Molina 14. Tyler Saladino 15. Darwin Matos 16. Jose Bautista 17. Marcus Semien 18. Euclides Leyer 19. Chris Beck 20. Eric Grabe