brett05

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 17, 2015 -> 11:05 AM) In these cases, I am going to trust my managers perception to understand why a player is hot, do the match ups work, is there a history with a players, are there signs that they need to keep playing etc, versus putting myself into either the extreme of always starting a hot player, or going fully by statistics. I agree

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Feb 17, 2015 -> 10:41 AM) You're very welcome. To my knowledge, I haven't seen anybody do a study that controls specifically for bench players. I'm guessing the inherent small sample issues scare the researchers away Probably true.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Feb 17, 2015 -> 10:42 AM) I'm dead serious. Why does benching a player who is "hot" simply end that hot streak? Are you implying that a guy who has been hitting well and then sits out a game will suddenly and unexpectedly not be "hot" anymore? It ends the streak. Not playing ends the streak. It's not harder than that.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Feb 17, 2015 -> 10:39 AM) Also, if you want to go further in depth than the summary I posted (and don't feel like buying Tango's book), here's the Pizza Cutter (Russel Carlton) research that is commonly referenced: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article....articleid=10170 I like that one too. But again he's not focusing on the two game nor the bench player (Not sure but I am guessing most bench players do not get 250 ABs. But I liked both of the articles you shared.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Feb 17, 2015 -> 10:36 AM) So you're arguing it is true because you feel it - since you have no evidence it occurs. Others have shown you clearly that you cannot rely on a "streak" because, basically, you have zero predictability of when it will end. Evidence would be anything statistical that showed streaks are predictable as to length. Anything would do. I am not predicting the length of the streak. I am saying you play it until it ends whenever that is. Next game, next two games, etc.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Feb 17, 2015 -> 10:30 AM) This is the best little summary I've found, which cites Tango's original research: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/strategy-...ust-the-streak/ Again, to be clear: No one is saying that players don't get "dialed in" for streaks. However, there is no way to predict how long those streaks last. A hot day does not beget another hot day. So if a player has been hot for three days, he is NOT more likely to be hot on the fourth day. So if you're deciding how to put the best team on the field for a given day, looking at recent trends instead of statistically significant career data will mislead you. Leury Garcia is Leury Garcia even if he's been hot, and Jose Abreu is Jose Abreu even if he's been cold. EDIT: Here's a relevant snippet Very good read. Thanks!! My comment would be that for a bench type player a streak should be shortened to two games, not five. In general bench players are what they are, bench players. By the time the streak hits 5 games I think the streak is played out so to speak. But I really liked that article. Thanks again!

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Feb 17, 2015 -> 10:27 AM) What empirical evidence do you have of this? Not sure if this is serious.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Feb 17, 2015 -> 10:26 AM) You're asking to prove a negative. What you have yet to do is prove the positive, apparently because there is no evidence to support your claim. I'm not the one saying there is evidence that points to this. I'm saying if it exists I'd like to read it. Geesh So what would be the evidence? Showing the results of non-starters after two games of consecutive hits would be a part of it.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Feb 17, 2015 -> 10:10 AM) You ARE talking predictive. You're saying that if a guy just had a good game (or several good games), he is likely to have another good game. Statistically, that just isn't true. So it isn't predictive, and so it doesn't make sense to "ride the hot hand" if that means putting a guy in a situation where he seems less likely to succeed than the alternative. If it's close to a wash and the manager feels it's important mentally for a bench guy to feel like he can earn himself playing time, I get it. Makes sense. But it ISN'T maximizing a guy's value in terms of his on-field contributions, because his hot hand doesn't make him more likely to produce the next day. If this was a craps table you would be right. But this isn't. You've said yourself the hot hand is real and I don't think anyone doubts that. But to assume that a streak ends because of a matchup isn't the right play. You don't know when the hot hand ends so you ride it out until it does. The moment trumps the history in the majority of cases. If there is evidence that this doesn't work, I'd be interested in reading it Eminor3rd EDIT: Benching a player ends the Hot Streak every single time.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 17, 2015 -> 10:03 AM) So not 1 example. LOL. Please see previous post.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 17, 2015 -> 09:51 AM) Sure we can. Nieto never played consecutive games, so he can't qualify for your "hotness". Are you saying Paul Konerko didn't play enough? Who are the names that were yanked while they were "hot"? If this is a managerial weakness, you should be able to provide some examples. Sorry, but I don't think we can. For you and I, it's best we agree to disagree.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Feb 17, 2015 -> 09:48 AM) I'm glad you are not the manager of the White Sox. Ditto...so we got that in common.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 17, 2015 -> 09:17 AM) So you wait for your bench guy to suck and perhaps cost you a game before you take him out. And anticipating no success is just dumb? Leury had hits in consecutive games 5 times last year. The first time he went 2 for 4, then 1-4 with 2 k's. I guess that qualifies for hot. He didn't play the next game and the Sox lost 3-2. He went 1-2 and 1-3, sat out the next game and the Sox lost 6-3. He went 1-3 then 2-4, then sat and the Sox won 3-2 He went 1-5, then 1-3, then played and went 0-3. Keeping the "hot bat" in the line up didn't pay off. He went 1-4,then 1-4 then sat and the Sox won 6-3. I know these are actual results and probably mean nothing, but you are wrong. You keep getting hung up on a name. We can't discuss this intelligently can we?

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Feb 17, 2015 -> 09:16 AM) There's been a ton of research on this. All of it concludes that while hot streaks are certainly real, they hold no predictive value whatsoever. In other words, a guy is hot until he cools down, and there's no way to know when that will be. In any given at bat, a player's career numbers are better predictors of the result than his recent numbers. Even though a guy may be hot for a week, he isn't any more likely to STAY hot the next day. So if you put a guy into a terrible match-up, you're setting him up for failure no matter how hot he's been. You're "helping" the hot streak end. Yeah I see why this makes sense intuitively, but it turns out that things don't actually work that way. You maximize a guy's value by putting him in the best position to succeed. If you ride him until he fails, that huge failure takes a chunk out of the value he got you with his streak. I'm not talking predictive. Predictive is odds based and with that you can just use the sheet which anyone can do. This is riding the hot hand. Yes the hand will end. But one player in a lineup ending a hot streak does not mean the game is lost. It could mean though that the streak continues and thus could mean a win. It's also the opportunity to see if perhaps a bench guy can be something more. The streak shouldn't be interrupted. This maximizes value.

Nice honor

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Feb 17, 2015 -> 09:04 AM) Conor Gillaspie goes 0-4 with 3 K's and the White Sox lose. Or he continues and goes 1 for 3 with a 2b and a run scored.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 17, 2015 -> 09:08 AM) No, poor managing is basing your decision on what happened in an entirely different scenerio the day before, and not using information that can lead to a better result. I do agree there should be some gut managing. Playing by the book is safe from criticism, but c'mon, riding guys like Leury Garcia, or Adrian Nieto, or a 38 year old Paul Konerko just because they had a hit or 2 the previous 2 games, while keeping better players on the bench? That is silly. It's riding it out. All players slump and all players have hot hands. When they are hot you play them out. That's the right thing to do. More than likely the bench guys regress back to the norm fairly quickly. But while they are hot, you ride that out. That is maximizing the value.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Feb 17, 2015 -> 08:53 AM) I'm a little surprised Micah wasn't in the back end, but not totally shocked. Other than that the list positions make sense, relatively. Definitely surprised. I'd love to hear his reasoning since everyone else seems to rate him well.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Feb 17, 2015 -> 08:40 AM) And because of that small sample, you should disregard it and look at the bigger picture, because Conor Gillaspie is not good against left handed pitching. Essentially, you are throwing logic by the wayside. That doesn't seem like a good way to manage. Logically I am riding the hot hand. In your scenario you need to only look at percentages and those that do not succeed from day one won't be provided an opportunity to succeed later. That's poor managing.

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Feb 17, 2015 -> 08:50 AM) i think what is rare here is Leury Garcia getting so hot over the course of two games that it doesnt make sense to remove him from the lineup. I dont think that ever happened. Right right right, you said two games. Straw man indeed whatever helps you out I guess

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Feb 17, 2015 -> 08:22 AM) So say the Sox have a series against the Twins in Chicago, and Conor Gillaspie goes 8 for 13 over the weekend against Phil Hughes, Ervin Santana, and Ricky Nolasco. They are heading to Detroit after the finale, and David Price is the starter in the first game. You are telling me that you are going to start Conor Gillaspie because he's hot, completely disregarding the fact that he's an absolute hot mess against left handed pitching? Not only is Conor hot, he's on fire. It's be foolish to bench him. BTW, Conor is hitting .333 against Price in his career. (Small sample size of course)

QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Feb 17, 2015 -> 08:19 AM) Bench guys are bench guys for a reason. Just because they get a couple hits one game doesn't make them hot or change the fact that they are not starting caliber players. It doesn't make Robin a bad manager because he doesn't give starts to Konerko and his .572 OPS, or L. Garcia and his .399 OPS, or Nieto and .635 OPS just because they have one good game. Starting those guys more than once a week or so would be what makes you a bad manager. You are strawmanning here. I never said one game.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 17, 2015 -> 08:11 AM) There is a pretty good chance Leury is going ofer if he had 4 hits the day before. Besides, there is a lot more to making out a line up than going by what the guy did the day before. This isn't basketball and the rim is the same width and height. The guy on the mound also matters. Conor Gillaspie has had 2 hits 3 games in a row, they are facing the Dodgers and Clayton Kershaw the next game, does a good manager disregard this has 0-4 written all over it? Your way, the answer is apparently, yes. The Sox bench has pretty much sucked since Robin has been managing. There has really been no one you would want to have extended playing time. That particular complaint against Robin is a huge reach. Your way is that anyone that can read percentages can manage. Are there times that you bench a hot hand? Of course. It's much, much more rare that I believe you are indicating.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 17, 2015 -> 08:04 AM) I like Leury Garcia more than most here, but the fact is, riding Leury Garcia makes guys bad managers. Not when they are hot it doesn't. He's hot you play him. He messes up or gets the 0 fer now is the time to put him back on the bench. Don't get hung up on the name, get in tune with the idea.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 17, 2015 -> 08:01 AM) You are criticizing Robin Ventura for not leaving a "hot" Leury Garcia in the line up? That is comedy gold. I thought the guys at WSI, what with their complaining about the stripes on pants, the patches on sleeves, the lack of smiles from the guy taking their parking money, were really reaching in the complaint department, but this may top that. It's a basic thing that managers do, but the bad ones don't. You ride a hot hand. You can laugh at that all you want.