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Nardiwashere

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    Cease To Padres per Passan

    in Pale Hose Talk

    Posted

    Just now, Sports Guy said:

    When discussing this, most of you are only looking as the best case scenario. 

    None of you are saying, maybe Getz is just asking for too much.

    I don't think one person is looking at the best case scenario.  Everyone pretty much said "He could get hurt but its worth the risk if the offers are poor"

    Cease To Padres per Passan

    in Pale Hose Talk

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

    Again, you are comparing value now vs value later.  He COULD be worth more later. He likely won’t be. 
     

    You said you believe the general rule of thumb is that pitching fetches more at the deadline.  How is it likely that Cease is the exception to this rule?  

    • Like 2

    Cease To Padres per Passan

    in Pale Hose Talk

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

    We should also be able to agree that pitchers fetch more at the deadline than they do in the offseason. That’s the general rule of thumb.

     

     

    24 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

    Again, pitching fetches more at the deadline than the offseason most of the time but that pitcher has to be pitching well.  

     

    7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

    That’s not likely. You want to point to more teams being interested…all of those teams could get him right now and the determined that he’s not good enough to justify the asking price and they went with other options. So now you think they pay more for less starts?

     

    How is it that pitching fetches more at the deadline most of the time and is the general rule of thumb but also teams wont pay more for less starts?

    Cease To Padres per Passan

    in Pale Hose Talk

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

    I would question this. I would say his value is likely higher in July if he's exactly the same pitcher as last year, unless he is hurt.

    Agree.  Injury and completely sucking are the two risks.  If they don't love the offers, its worth the risk to hold him.   

    If he is better, you'll probably get more.  

    Depending on what is being offered right now, if he is the same or somewhere in between, you could end up getting the same or more. 

    Cease To Padres per Passan

    in Pale Hose Talk

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Snopek said:

    I get it, but that assumes that a team would know ahead of time that they'll be in first place and/or won't need Cease until later in the season.

    I don't understand what you mean. 

    When the team makes the trade, they know where they are in the standings and what their roster looks like. 

    Cease To Padres per Passan

    in Pale Hose Talk

    Posted

    Just now, Sports Guy said:

    What exactly do you disagree with you?  You think his value doesn’t changed with 20 less starts that the acquiring team gets?

    You think at the trade deadline, a player's value gets significantly discounted because you aren't getting him for April and May starts?  This isn't how it works in real life.  The team will get him for 2 playoff runs. 

    • Thanks 1

    Cease To Padres per Passan

    in Pale Hose Talk

    Posted

    1 minute ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

    So simple!! Lol, geez. I’m done with this discussion because it’s going nowhere. Through their numerous posts, they’ve conceded that trading for a starter like Cease makes perfect sense for their situation and yet they only want to trade away the guys that look like busts or have limited ceilings. GTFO

    Lol... and then when its pointed out to them, the response is "You have poor reading comprehension" or "everything you said is wrong."

    If you win 100 games but need pitching, and are too cheap to sign a FA as well as too meek to make a deal for a SP (even though have redundant position player talent in the minors), it is an awful plan unless everything else goes right. 

    Cease To Padres per Passan

    in Pale Hose Talk

    Posted

    13 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

    You’re not following my point that teams that don’t spend at some point don’t win titles. It’s that simple. Sure you might have a brief 3-4 year window where you have an outside shot at a title like the rays but they still haven’t broken through and that’s one rare example of an organization that has done it as well as possible while many others have failed to come anywhere close to that. So, if you’re not willing to pay up for a top starter like Yamamoto, Snell, Montgomery, etc AND you’re not willing to part with prospects for a relatively cheap starter like Cease, what exactly are you doing? Because the clock is ticking if they aren’t going to sustain a top 10 payroll in a few years.

    That's why these guys want to hold on to everyone except Ortiz and Cowser, who came up and struggled in his short time.  The "plan" is to have an endless stream of prospects who reach their best case scenario, don't bust, replace anyone who gets expensive, and win the AL East year in and year out. 

    Cease To Padres per Passan

    in Pale Hose Talk

    Posted

    15 minutes ago, Snowy Demon said:

    Looking at MLB prospect rankings, 3 AL East teams that are being talked about the most here have interesting rankings:

    Orioles have 1, 14, 24, 27, 46, and 50

    Red Sox have 11, 35, 72 and 82

    Yankees have 73, 74, 75 and 95

    White Sox have 17, 61 and 81.

    Colton Cowser or Marcelo Mayer will be #1 prospect for the White Sox.  Top 3 Red Sox prospects and all 6 Orioles prospects would be #1 in the Yankees system.  @Sports Guyis correct in saying that Cowser and Ortiz package would be difficult to beat for the Yankees. 

    I feel like this is how Rick Hahn used to make trades. 

    • Like 1

    Cease To Padres per Passan

    in Pale Hose Talk

    Posted · Edited by Nardiwashere

    Can someone explain this about prospect lists and Jasson Domínguez?  I have heard about him (and Volpe) for a while.  I don't understand how he seems to have been only ranked 30s-60s on the prospect lists (MLB seems to have had him #47 preseason and now they have him in 70s a few spots ahead of Edgar Quero).  If that's true, how is he supposedly untouchable?    

    Cease To Padres per Passan

    in Pale Hose Talk

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

    There is zero question he was involved in the talks..whether directly or indirectly. No doubt he knows what teams were saying, what the WS wanted, etc…and even if he didnt(which isn’t true), he has been talking a Cease trade for 6+ weeks now.

     

    Lol just say “yeah, I misspoke. I was wrong” 

    how is someone “indirectly involved” in trade talks?

    Cease To Padres per Passan

    in Pale Hose Talk

    Posted

    Just now, Frobby said:

    I don’t think Sports Guy has said “for sure.”   Neither one has enough of a track record to say that.  But, they both have attributes you often see in a TOR arm.  I feel very good about those two.

    He called them 2 frontline starters and 2 TOR guys the other day. I remember because I asked who the second was.  

    He’s not saying “they have nice attributes” he’s penciling them in for Cy Young consideration! 

     

    Cease To Padres per Passan

    in Pale Hose Talk

    Posted

    The more I think about it, the less I like Baltimore's guys who are rumored to be available. 

    If the best piece coming back is Cowser, what's his ceiling?  A poor man's Nick Markakis who struggled when they brought him up?  If its Kjerstad, it sounds like another potential 1b/DH type.   ehhh. 

    The second pieces would be Ortiz, a 26 year old glove first infielder who has below avg speed... or Norby, a 2b who apparently can't play 2b?

    If I'm doing that deal, I'd have to really like the 3rd/4th players.

    What team would have the most upside to give us?  

    Cease To Padres per Passan

    in Pale Hose Talk

    Posted

    7 hours ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

    Dude...I don't think he knows. Nobody knows right now who the leader is for Cease or what Baltimore is willing to do. I think everyone needs to relax and find something to do haha. The White Sox offices aren't even until next week. I'm sure Chris Getz is texting, chatting with GM's etc but he's letting the pitching market settle. I don't think anything is imminent in regards to Cease. 

    Didn’t Hahn consummate the Quintana deal on vacation? I remember him telling a story of sneaking away on his cell phone in like an airport or something 

    Cease To Padres per Passan

    in Pale Hose Talk

    Posted

    Getz will probably just trade him to ATL.  People will think it’s because Getz wants pitching but I suspect Alex Anthopoulos is the only phone number Kenny and Rick left when they got canned and Getz is too shy to get anyone else’s contact info.  That’s why he keeps making trades with them.

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