This is the first post by our newest writer, Mike Rankin. Here he explores outfield prospect Luis Alexander Basabe, trying to evaluate what his 2019 might look like. 

By the way, he is "Rankin" on SoxTalk, just joined here too.

 

Very nice.  It will be interesting to see how all of these OFs are spread around the minors to make playing time for them all.  There is a pretty solid log jam right now.

What I like about basabe, and i do think his greatest likelihood is 4th outfielder, but he also feels like a prospect that can blow doors off his projection at any point. He does have power, what if he hits enough to make that plus plus? He does walk alot, what if he gets so selective it forces more strikes to play up his power?

His hit tool could hold him back, but he seems like a really smart player that is going to get most out of his tools.

Really dubious about the 27% K-rate in AA. That needs major improvement if he's going to make it to the top.

And yes, I'm obsessed with K-rate. The most glowing thing about Eloy, out of all the glowing things, is his 15% K-rate at AAA. That will play in the bigs. 27%, which will increase as he continues to rise, will not.

1 hour ago, The Sir said:

Really dubious about the 27% K-rate in AA. That needs major improvement if he's going to make it to the top.

And yes, I'm obsessed with K-rate. The most glowing thing about Eloy, out of all the glowing things, is his 15% K-rate at AAA. That will play in the bigs. 27%, which will increase as he continues to rise, will not.

27% isn't as scary as it used to be, but it is high. That said, dude was 21 years old making him 3 years younger than league average. And he pairs that with high walk rates, so he clearly has some zone control. It's something to watch out for but I don't think it is a huge deal at this stage for him.

Fair enough. Like always, even with a guy with the same issue in MLB a la Moncada, this can improve. If it does, he’s at least a fourth OF, and probably more (especially if he can stay in CF). But more than OPS or any other statistical thing, the Ks are what I’m watching from Luis this year.

17 hours ago, NorthSideSox72 said:

27% isn't as scary as it used to be, but it is high. That said, dude was 21 years old making him 3 years younger than league average. And he pairs that with high walk rates, so he clearly has some zone control. It's something to watch out for but I don't think it is a huge deal at this stage for him.

To piggyback off this, take a look at Micker Adolfo. Here were his K rates the last three years:

2016 in Kanny: 33.2%

2017 in Kanny: 31.5%

2018 in W.S.: 27.4%

He has been decreasing his K rate the past three years, and that even included being bumped to a higher level. I think K rate can definitely be improved, especially when talking about a really young player. I don't think Basabe will automatically have a higher K rate as he rises to the next level.

He's going to be good...he'll figure out something with those Ks (which I assume include a lot of looking Ks). He'll either learn to foul them off (great) or expand a bit with 2 strikes without losing his discipline.  Sox have several athletic outfielders who should be ready in the next 2 years.

Basabe’s last ~40 games at AA: 12.1% BB rate, 26.4% K rate, .170 ISO, 130 wRC+, .806 OPS.

Also, slightly more than 1/2 his games were at a huge pitchers park & wRC+ is not park adjusted in the minors.

 

Edited January 20, 20197 yr by Chicago White Sox

I think he could become an average regular. Decent power, mediocre hit tool and good speed and defense.

If Basabe was in the Yankees system he would be in the top 100. He has the tools and he is still young for the level he is playing

The plate discipline is definitely a positive that makes his hit tool play up half a grade or so.

 

But 40 hit with 50 power is still iffy though, basically that projects for about a 90 ops+, maybe 95 due to the walks. Still is young and can improve but there is quite a bit of risk.

 

11 hours ago, yesterday333 said:

If Basabe was in the Yankees system he would be in the top 100. He has the tools and he is still young for the level he is playing

I think this about many prospects often time

Same may apply for Micker Adolfo or Dane Dunning, maybe even Tyler Johnson