1 hour ago, CentralChamps21 said:

2024:

Moncada $24M

Benintendi, $16.5M

Jimenez, $13M

Robert $12.5M

Bummer $5.5M

Hendriks $15M option

Anderson $14M option

Clevinger $12M option

Cease Arb 2

Kopech Arb 2

Vaughn Arb1

Crochet Arb1

Toussaint Arb1

 

I don’t even think Touki will be arb 1. He was barely over 2 years service coming into 23 and wasn’t on an mlb roster enough to get to 3.0 even assuming he sticks on Sox for balance of season obviously. 

1 hour ago, CentralChamps21 said:

2024:

Moncada $24M

Benintendi, $16.5M

Jimenez, $13M

Robert $12.5M

Bummer $5.5M

Hendriks $15M option

Anderson $14M option

Clevinger $12M option

Cease Arb 2

Kopech Arb 2

Vaughn Arb1

Crochet Arb1

Toussaint Arb1

 

Removing Clevinger because I think its unlikely both sides agree for him to return, 2024 payroll is right around $134M right now including filling out the 26 man roster with pre-arb guys.

I used the following arb estimates:

Cease: $10M (arb 2)

Kopech: $5M (arb 2)

Vaughn: $2.5M (arb 1)

Crochet: $1M (arb 1)

If you wanted to assume the Sox try to compete in 2024 for the sake of discussion, that would give them $50-60M to spend to get into the $180-190M they've been at heading into the last couple seasons.  Note the $134M includes the $5.5M in dead money due to Leury, and assumes options on TA and Hendriks are exercised. 

Edited July 29, 20232 yr by ChiSox59

13 hours ago, Timmy U said:

If they believe in Touki, they can pay 1 starter and hope to sort through a ton of options (Cueto types and rookies) to try and patch together a 5th starter.  Then, if they pay for a bat, you'd could squint and talk yourself into a contending team? Kinda?

1 starter? Don’t they need at least 2? Or can they bring back Clevinger next year?

10 minutes ago, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said:

1 starter? Don’t they need at least 2? Or can they bring back Clevinger next year?

I mean 1 expensive starter, 1 Touki, and 1 reclamation project/rotation of young guys. And to be clear that's not what I would do. But, if they think they can compete (i.e. finish around .500), I would imagine that's what they're thinking. I could also imagine them looking at the money they owe Eloy, trading that cash and using it on something else.  Point is, I think we're back in a Kenny-style rebuild on the fly instead of a complete tear down scan BA's Top 100 type deal.  I might not do it that way, but it's what everyone in the org seems to be saying.

35 minutes ago, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said:

1 starter? Don’t they need at least 2? Or can they bring back Clevinger next year?

They can bring back Clevinger next year ($12M mutual option), but it’s highly unlikely both sides agree to it. It’s more likely he’s traded in the next few days than both sides of that option getting picked up. 

1 hour ago, Timmy U said:

I mean 1 expensive starter, 1 Touki, and 1 reclamation project/rotation of young guys. And to be clear that's not what I would do. But, if they think they can compete (i.e. finish around .500), I would imagine that's what they're thinking. I could also imagine them looking at the money they owe Eloy, trading that cash and using it on something else.  Point is, I think we're back in a Kenny-style rebuild on the fly instead of a complete tear down scan BA's Top 100 type deal.  I might not do it that way, but it's what everyone in the org seems to be saying.

Plus a guy who takes the innings Kopech isn’t able to pitch as he’s never cone close to 30 starts, plus injuries to the other four.

Teams need 6-7 credible pitchers to get through most seasons.

The Sox only had 2 in 2020, so 2021-2023 were the three years they could claim having six starters after counting for in season pick ups like Touki and Cueto the past few years.

Hopefully they can find more waiver wire magic this year.

Using these arb estimates unless there is a better consensus estimate for one or more of these players.

Arb 2

• Cease $8.2M
• Kopech $3.5M

Arb 1

• Vaughn $1.7M
• Crochet $1.2M
• Lambert $1.0M
• Foster $1.0M