I actually think there is a solid chance Clevinger does return. From the Sox perspective, picking up their side of the option is a no brainer. They need minimum 3 SP and he's a net cost of $8M. No way you find a better arm for $8M.
From Clevinger's perspective, he locks in $8M in extra dollars for 2024 and gets another year of the passage of time away from his DV allegations. That at least has to be part of the calculus here, there are definitely teams that won't touch him with a 10 foot pole, we just don't know how many. The fact that he went unclaimed on waivers is at least some indication teams don't want his baggage, though obviously the price tag was significant with the buyout.
If I had to guess, Clevinger is pitching for the Sox next season.