BrandoFan Posted February 11, 2004 Share Posted February 11, 2004 All we need is a fast start Unlike 2003, we have a somewhat tougher 2004 April that will likely show us and JR whether this team is what I think it will be or what it should be based on 2001-2003 pefromance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WillieHarris2 Posted February 11, 2004 Share Posted February 11, 2004 Unlike 2003, we have a somewhat tougher 2004 April that will likely show us and JR whether this team is what I think it will be or what it should be based on 2001-2003 pefromance. what do you mean by this im confused? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pastime Posted February 11, 2004 Share Posted February 11, 2004 I think we can tell how the season will go after the first 6 weeks. If the 3-5 spots in the rotation are getting shellacked, if the baserunning is comical, if the bullpen is blowing leads, and if the hitting is spotty, then we all know it's just another bad start and a potentially bad season. I think a manager can affect a team - TO A CERTAIN EXTENT. He can't hit for them, pitch for them, or throw for them, but he can make the right moves and decisions which could help the team win games that they might have lost under another manager - "borderline" games that could go either way. My only worry is that Ozzie's "fiery" attitude and enthusiasm will wear thin and burn out at some point in the season. Some players get tired of that "rah rah" stuff really quickly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WillieHarris2 Posted February 11, 2004 Share Posted February 11, 2004 I think we can tell how the season will go after the first 6 weeks. If the 3-5 spots in the rotation ar getting shellacked, if the baserunning is comical, if the bullpen is blowing leads, and if the hitting is spotty, then we all know it's just another bad start and a potentially bad season. I think a manager can affect a team - TO A CERTAIN EXTENT. He can't hit for them, pitch for them, or throw for them, but he can make the right moves and decisions which could help the team win games that they might have lost under another manager - "borderline" games that could go either way. My only worry is that Ozzie's "fiery" attitude and enthusiasm will wear thin and burn out at some point in the season. Some players get tired of that "rah rah" stuff really quickly. You make a good team and you can only hope that the Sox dont start like that. Man would we be in for a long one if they started that poorly. What we need is quality pitching outings from Garland and Scho to start off. Also you have to worry about Frank and Ozzie. They could potentially end up getting the worst of each other and thus creating a mess in the clubhouse or they could get the best of each other. It all depends on how there love/hate relationship works out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YASNY Posted February 11, 2004 Share Posted February 11, 2004 All we need is a fast start. Last couple years we've gotten off to a slow start when we played the royals.Then at the end of the season were scrapping to get into first place. I think with Ozzie at the helm he will bring much needed energy to this team. Theres a lot of ifs involved but i think it can be done. All we need is a fast start, a fast middle, and a fast finish ..... after which, we need to really get hot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mathew Posted February 11, 2004 Share Posted February 11, 2004 All we need is a fast start, a fast middle, and a fast finish ..... after which, we need to really get hot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baggio202 Posted February 11, 2004 Share Posted February 11, 2004 KC has the best bullpen by default??? Are you crazy??? Have you even looked at the stats??? Do you realize that KC had the worst bullpen, by far(2nd worst bullpen ERA in AL was 4.84), in the majors last year? - KC 2003 bullpen ERA 5.55 Key Additions Sullivan(Cincy/Sox) 64 IP 3.66 ERA 0 SV Leskanic(full year) 52.2 IP 2.22 ERA 2 SV with KC: 26 IP 1.73 ERA 2 SV Cerda(Mets) 32.1 IP 5.85 ERA 0 SV Key Subtractions Levine 21.1 IP 2.53 ERA 1 SV Analysis - The Royals bullpen should be better, if for no other reason because it can't get much worse. They have made some decent personal improvements. Adding Sullivan will give them a solid right handed set up pitcher. They also get a full year out of Leskanic, however those two alone won't make the majors worst bullpen into the strongest in the AL Central. If I had to make a prediction, than I would guess their bullpen will have an ERA in the high 4's, with the best case scenerio being the mid 4's one key point to add against the royals having a good bullpen...none of those guys you mentioned is a lefty...they have ZERO lefties right now...darrel may or one of their lefty starters from last year will have to convert to the pen..thats a huge question mark for them..especially when they play the twins...unfortunately it wont matter too much against the sox since we have the same problem in our batting order for the 4th year in a row now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
upnorthsox Posted February 11, 2004 Share Posted February 11, 2004 KC has a killer first two months, if they can survive it and by within 5 games of 1st watch out. Minny on the other hand, if they have a good West coast trip in May could break out to a 2000 Sox type lead by July 1st. They do have a brutal August but KC and the Sox may have already white flagged it by then. IMO the Sox best chance rest with Koch and whether he regains his velocity, we should know that in less than 10 days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
upnorthsox Posted February 11, 2004 Share Posted February 11, 2004 one key point to add against the royals having a good bullpen...none of those guys you mentioned is a lefty...they have ZERO lefties right now...darrel may or one of their lefty starters from last year will have to convert to the pen..thats a huge question mark for them..especially when they play the twins...unfortunately it wont matter too much against the sox since we have the same problem in our batting order for the 4th year in a row now That depends if Affeldt is in the rotation or pen, if he's in the rotation then yea they still need a lefty. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NUKE_CLEVELAND Posted February 11, 2004 Share Posted February 11, 2004 The Royals I believe look the best on paper, just because they have added a lot over the winter, guys like Gonzo, Graff, and Sullivan, while the Sox and Twins have done nothing but hurt themselves. Scott Sullivan? I went to 10 games last season and every time I saw him pitch he walked a lot of batters and gave up runs and was booed off the field more than once. Am I missing something here? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C.Rector Posted February 11, 2004 Share Posted February 11, 2004 Scott Sullivan? I went to 10 games last season and every time I saw him pitch he walked a lot of batters and gave up runs and was booed off the field more than once. Am I missing something here? Your impression of Sullivan is right on target. However, a lot of the other posters take the knee-jerk attitude that if a player either leaves the Sox for Free Agency or is traded away, then he is a valuable player who the Sox management stupidly let go. Another example of this is Aaron Miles. When he was here, folks hardly cared about him at all. The moment he was traded for Juan Uribe, Miles all of a sudden became the great player who was traded away in a fit of insanity by KW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Queen Prawn Posted February 11, 2004 Share Posted February 11, 2004 Your impression of Sullivan is right on target. His numbers don't look that bad to me: (I tried using spaces, but it wouldn't show up in the preview so I am trying this way to make the stats more readable.) Team CHA G GS W L SV CG SHO 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 IP H R ER HR 14.1 9 6 6 2 BB K ERA WHIP BAA 6 13 3.77 1.05 .184 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baggio202 Posted February 11, 2004 Share Posted February 11, 2004 Your impression of Sullivan is right on target. However, a lot of the other posters take the knee-jerk attitude that if a player either leaves the Sox for Free Agency or is traded away, then he is a valuable player who the Sox management stupidly let go. Another example of this is Aaron Miles. When he was here, folks hardly cared about him at all. The moment he was traded for Juan Uribe, Miles all of a sudden became the great player who was traded away in a fit of insanity by KW. alot of us have ben talking about miles for 2 years now...you can go back and check the archives if you want proof...hsc, myself , afew other (maybe yasny) were pleading last year to give miles the 2nd base job over jimenez... hsc was a huge supportrer of aaron miles...she was the first to notice him when she saw him play in birmingham Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted February 11, 2004 Share Posted February 11, 2004 alot of us have ben talking about miles for 2 years now...you can go back and check the archives if you want proof...hsc, myself , afew other (maybe yasny) were pleading last year to give miles the 2nd base job over jimenez... hsc was a huge supportrer of aaron miles...she was the first to notice him when she saw him play in birmingham Still is, she basically b****ed out Kenny for trading him for Uribe at the Q&A. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrandoFan Posted February 11, 2004 Share Posted February 11, 2004 Still is, she basically b****ed out Kenny for trading him for Uribe at the Q&A. Stalker? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted February 11, 2004 Share Posted February 11, 2004 Scott Sullivan? I went to 10 games last season and every time I saw him pitch he walked a lot of batters and gave up runs and was booed off the field more than once. Am I missing something here? That's because you were watching him at the Cell. His splits at the Cell: 9 innings, 7 hits, 6 runs allowed(all earned), 2 homers allowed, 6 walks and 8 K's. ERA of 6.00, WHIP of 1.44, though opponents hit just .219 against him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrandoFan Posted February 12, 2004 Share Posted February 12, 2004 Boog: I decided to crunch some numbers to compare these two offenses based on OPS (I know that no single state describes how good an offense is, but OPS is a good benchmark). I made OPS projections based on recent performance (last three years) with an emphasis on the most recent years. I made some assumptions in coming up with these estimates, including: - Uribe will get sigificant AB's, sharing time with Harris and Valentin. - Rowand will get the vast majority of time in CF, but will share it somewhat with Harris. - Valentin won't be platooned more than he was last season (unless and until Ozzie says it's going to happen, then I'm not going to presume that Ozzie is going to give a veteran middle infielder less playing time). - Gonzo won't play a full season due to injury (for the sake of argument, I used 400 AB's which is what some Sox fans estimated before the Royals signed him) - Stairs and Harvey will primarily be used in platoon roles (as the Royals GM and manager have said), until Gonzalez is hurt, at which time both players AB's will increase and the opportunity for them to platoon will decrease Let me know which numbers you disagree with, but I would respectfully suggest that if you disagree with a particular prediction that you look at their stats over the last three years, with a particular emphasis on 2003 stats (and splits where appropriate) before countering with a counter-prediction. Anyway, here are the numbers: Chicago White Sox PLAYER - AB - OPS Rowand - 500 - 780 Valentin - 475 - 765 Thomas - 550 - 940 Ordonez - 600 - 930 Lee - 600 - 825 Konerko - 550 - 805 Crede - 575 - 780 Olivo - 450 - 675 Harris - 350 - 600 S. Alomar - 125 - 685 Uribe - 300 - 665 Reed - 225 - 705 UI - 150 - 575 UO - 125 - 630 TOTAL - 5575 - 778 Kansas City Royals PLAYER - AB - OPS Guiel - 550 - 800 Beltran - 600 - 910 Sweeney - 525 - 940 Gonzalez - 400 - 900 Randa - 550 - 770 Berroa - 575 - 815 Santiago - 425 - 750 Harvey - 400 - 800 Relaford - 425 - 720 Stairs - 425 - 850 Graffanino - 225 - 760 Stinnett - 200 - 650 UO - 150 - 625 UI - 125 - 575 TOTAL - 5575 - 808 maggsformayor Boogs, as always this post is completely flawed. The reason that both teams overall OPS is higher than it will actually be is because you give too many AB's to the top 12. I know that you assume that both teams will stay relatively healthy, but last year the Royals had 493 AB's and the Sox had a wooping 1000+ AB's by players that weren't in the top 12. The Sox total leads me to believe that their is room for improvement, ie I think the Sox will get more AB's from their top 12 which should help their overall OPS. I will give my predictions and reasons why they are more accurate Sox Player-AB's-OPS Rowand 450 .750 - I think you are a bit optimistic with Rowand Valentin 450 .775 - I think he will play mostly against righties Thomas 550 .920 - I think you are optimistic with Thomas also Ordonez 600 .930 - You Ordonez predictions are accurate IMO Lee 600 .835 - You really don't like Lee Konerko 550 .810 - I think he will rebound, but not completely Crede 550 .770 - Builds on his strong finish Olivo 400 .670 - Slight improvement Harris 400 .600 - I think your Harris prediction is accurate Alomar 150 .675 - DL "alomar" will hopefully teach Olivo Uribe 250 .665 - Platoon with Valentin against lefties Reed 150 .725 - Won't get called up until mid-season Other 450 .600 - Injuries and other role players Total 5550 .770 KC Player-AB's-OPS Guiel 450 .775 - Career minor leaguer that posted a .634 OPS in 2002 Beltran 575 .910 - Pretty accurate and one of my favorite non-Sox Sweeney 500 .920 - Decrease in AB's the last 3 years JuanGone 400 .875 - I have to stick with my prediction when the Sox were after him Randa 550 .780 - Quitely puts together solid years Berroa 575 .810 - Small improvement ala Crede/Olivo Santiago 400 .740 - I would how much is left in the 39 year old Harvey 400 .730 - Ugliest swing the majors, you drasticly overrate him Relaford 450 .710 - Right around his career averages Stairs 325 .830 - Decent against righties Graffy 250 .740 - Around career averages Stinnett 200 .650 - Below average catcher Other 475 .600 - Injuries and other role players Total 5550 .785 I think this is more realistic. KC will probably have a higher OPS, although that doesn't necessarily mean that they will score more runs(see 2003 Sox vs Royals). The Royals do have an advantage, but I question how much a decrease in BA with runners in scoring position will have. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted February 12, 2004 Share Posted February 12, 2004 Boog: maggsformayor So which one are you again? I forget. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrandoFan Posted February 12, 2004 Share Posted February 12, 2004 So which one are you again? I forget. Both. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted February 12, 2004 Share Posted February 12, 2004 Both. Oh yeah... well you both are wrong Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrandoFan Posted February 12, 2004 Share Posted February 12, 2004 Oh yeah... well you both are wrong That's because we both are toolus majorus. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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