Sox 5th Starter Making 1st Start of Year?

[beck72]

Tony Armas Jr.

Montreal would have to consider trading him, as he missed almost all of last year, and is paying him $2.1 mill. this year. He has made something like 4,5 starts in the minors already. He was supposed to be ready for the start of the year before he went down with a minor injury not related to his shoulder injury. He faces Atl. today in his 1st start of the year.

 

Armas shouldn't cost much in terms of talent due to his injury and uncertain future. [maybe Rauch and Borchard /Rowand]. Though there is risk. The potential reward is great.

 

Armas' upside is tremendous. He's only 26, and could be part of the Sox rotation for years. He's a native Venezuelan. He was having a breakout year in 2003 before he got hurt. His career avgs. project well for the future, lowering his BB, increasing his K's, lowering BAA, each year. His career 7.14 K/ IP, .240 BAA, and 4.11 ERA are better than Javier Vazquez's at this point in their careers [Vazquez is 28] Armas was supposed to be better than Vazquez last year, and was pitching better when he got hurt.

 

Armas should be able to go 5 strong innings to start the year for the Sox. As he increases his strength, Armas Jr should be able to go deeper. Much like Jon Lieber of NY, a guy like Armas could be a hidden gem. He should be a solid 5th starter for the Sox to start, and could be even better as the year progresses. Scouts watching him throw should be able to tell if he can help the Sox right away or not.

 

Mon. doesn't need another high priced starter. Both Armas, Jr and Tomo Ohka [another possibility for the Sox] Ohka makes $2.3 mill this year, and has a 3.05 ERA. Ohka has been semi-consistent for Mon [having a good year and then a mediocre year] and could be available if they want to stick with Armas. Yet one of these two guys should be available, esp w/ Livian signed to a 3 yr deal.

 

Montreal has many needs. The Sox could help fill some and get either Armas Jr or Ohka.

[WSoxShuf]

Previous injuries this year scare me.

[beck72]

Previous injuries this year scare me.

That's why scouts get paid. And in making a move early, the Sox could still trade by the deadline to get another SP if Armas Jr doesn't pan out. The cost in terms of talent wouldn't be that high, as teams would be scared off. Not many suitors for Armas. And Montreal may want to get something for him now [or unload Ohka]. But they can't afford Livian's $8 mill and the $4.4 mill for these two guys.

[WSoxShuf]

I see your point, and I like the way you work.

[beck72]

I see your point, and I like the way you work.

Thanks.

 

Tomo Ohka wouldn't be bad either. He has a career era of 3.91, with a 5.33 K/ 9, a 2.31 BB/ 9, and a 1.36 G/F ratio. He could hang w/ Shingo as well. While he doesn't have the potential upside that Armas Jr has, he could be a decent 4th or 5th starter.

[redandwhite]

The day the Red Sox traded Tony Armas Jr and Carl Pavano to Montreal for Pedro Martinez, I thought to myself, damn Armas was gonna be a star.

 

He's got "potential star" written all over him, and if you can get him by simply exchanging 25 year old Rauch for him, then I'd say definitly do it.

 

Ohka's good too, another former Red Sox, but Armas is the man, and I really believe he would shine over on the Southside.

[beck72]

The day the Red Sox traded Tony Armas Jr and Carl Pavano to Montreal for Pedro Martinez, I thought to myself, damn Armas was gonna be a star.

 

He's got "potential star" written all over him, and if you can get him by simply exchanging 25 year old Rauch for him, then I'd say definitly do it.

 

Ohka's good too, another former Red Sox, but Armas is the man, and I really believe he would shine over on the Southside.

And that's a big key to getting Armas Jr now, when he's at his lowest. It doesn't make sense for Montreal to keep paying his big salary when they aren't competing. And with his injury risk, getting something for him now may be better than getting nothing.

 

If they still want Armas Jr, fine. But Ohka also is making just as much. Whoever Mon. doesn't want, the Sox should get.

 

I think Armas Jr is worth the risk, even at a high price [a little less than the Garcia asking price [a top prospect, and two lesser prospects]. And Ohka would be more than serviceable.

[BrandoFan]

There are injuries and there are INJURIES (disk, elbow, shoulder).

 

What's good is Armas's "potential" if he throws 89 mph BP fastball Danny Wright style?

 

If he is completely healthy and has ld stuff back, why would Montreal only settle for Rauch?

 

If he is a damaged good, he won't be much help to the Sox.

 

Which one is it, beck72?

[JoshPR]

Thanks.

 

Tomo Ohka wouldn't be bad either. He has a career era of 3.91, with a 5.33 K/ 9, a 2.31 BB/ 9, and a 1.36 G/F ratio. He could hang w/ Shingo as well. While he doesn't have the potential upside that Armas Jr has, he could be a decent 4th or 5th starter.

Armas has a lot of talent, but his injuries kinda scare me off. If he would be signed through next year maybe but I wouldn't give up 2 for him. We really can't count on a pitcher comming from injury in a playoff run cause they're not really sharp yet.

 

Ohka ain't bad. wouldn't be a bad pickup, But if the sox are going after someone let it be a #1 and just slip everyone down a spot

[beck72]

Armas has a lot of talent, but his injuries kinda scare me off. If he would be signed  through next year maybe but I wouldn't give up 2 for him. We really can't count on a pitcher comming from injury in a playoff run cause they're not really sharp yet.

Tell that to the NYY's Jon Lieber. Plus, the playoff run is in August and Sept. We need a guy to get the Sox through June and July. Armas Jr should be rolling by Aug.

 

In order to pick up a potential #1 or #2, the Sox need to take some risks. There aren't many #1's or #2's out there. Yet the Sox wouldn't need Armas to be a #1. Just be a guy who could go 5, 6 innings. He could probably do that right away. Then as he regains strength could be even better, this year even. Yet Armas has the talent to be a top of the rotation guy next year for sure.

 

Even if Armas winds up too injured to play this year, he could always be put on the DL and be ready for next year. [i'm not sure about Armas' contract situation but I think he'd go to arbitration] And the Sox still would have time to make another trade by the deadline. [Armas has already made 5 starts in the minors. His last two in AAA he went a total of 10 IP, with 1 BB and 8 SO, for a 1.80 ERA.] So he looks ready now.

[The_Godfather]

Been a while since I posted but saw this post and just wanted to agree that Armas would be a great pick up for the SOX he price would be low which then would allow us to go after a better LH power hitter. At 2 mil for Armas we would then be able to take on about another 5-7 million in a GOOD lh power hitter to break up our never ending righty connection.

[JoshPR]

Tell that to the NYY's Jon Lieber. Plus, the playoff run is in August and Sept. We need a guy to get the Sox through June and July. Armas Jr should be rolling by Aug.

 

In order to pick up a potential #1 or #2, the Sox need to take some risks. There aren't many #1's or #2's out there. Yet the Sox wouldn't need Armas to be a #1. Just be a guy who could go 5, 6 innings. He could probably do that right away. Then as he regains strength could be even better, this year even. Yet Armas has the talent to be a top of the rotation guy next year for sure.

 

Even if Armas winds up too injured to play this year, he could always be put on the DL and be ready for next year. [i'm not sure about Armas' contract situation but I think he'd go to arbitration] And the Sox still would have time to make another trade by the deadline. [Armas has already made 5 starts in the minors. His last two in AAA he went a total of 10 IP, with 1 BB and 8 SO, for a 1.80 ERA.] So he looks ready now.

Ahem... How long was Lieber out for? almost 2 years and he had time to rebuild his arm. Another thing the Sox aren't gonna trade for someone to put him on trhe DL and then go out and make another trade and give up more players, that's just ludacrist.

 

[AngelasDaddy0427]

Just what we need more damaged goods.

I'm sorry but we need someone with some real talent...

[beck72]

There are injuries and there are INJURIES (disk, elbow, shoulder).

 

What's good is Armas's "potential" if he throws 89 mph BP fastball Danny Wright style?   

 

If he is completely healthy and has ld stuff back, why would Montreal only settle for Rauch?

 

If he is a damaged good, he won't be much help to the Sox.

 

Which one is it, beck72?

Did I say I was his doctor? I don't the extent of his injuries. But if he's already thrown 5 games in the minors and can throw well in the majors, he should be ready.

 

The Sox pay scouts to watch guys throw. A guy like Armas Jr should be watched as a possible pick up. Montreal has had to pay Armas 2 yrs and not much to show for it. They can't keep picking up the tab on this guy, even if he's almost fully recovered. Mon. has a lot of holes to fill and a limited amount of money.

 

If they keep Armas, then Ohka should be available. Either would look nice on the Sox. They can't pay Livian $8 mill and the $4.4 mill for these two guys as well.

 

Watch the game on TBS tonight at 6:30 pm. Let me know what you think. He's certainly better and a more plausible acquisition for the Sox than many of the names being thrown around.

[beck72]

Ahem... How long was Lieber out for? almost 2 years and he had time to rebuild his arm. Another thing the Sox aren't gonna trade for someone to put him on trhe DL and then go out and make another trade and give up more players, that's just ludacrist.

 

My point was, if the worst case scenario happened, and Armas had to be shut down for the rest of the year, a deal for him would still be worth it.

 

His talent level and upside rivals that of Javier Vazquez, at least prior to the injury. If he can near the same level of effectiveness, a deal would be more than worth it. Getting Armas probably wouldn't require the Sox giving up their top prospects. So the Sox could still make a deal by the end of July if he didn't pan out.

 

I wouldn't make the deal if I didn't think he could give the Sox quality innings this year. But the risk is there that he may not.

[beck72]

Just what we need more damaged goods.

The Sox haven't exactly had much success with healthy minor leaguers these last two years. Why not give a recovering, young, proven major league talent a shot?

[Chisoxrd5]

I have always liked Armas Jr...I think he is about exactly what we need to slip into that 5th starter spot...

 

At worst hes the fifth starter with potential to be out 2nd or 3rd best Starter...

 

Yes hes coming off an injury but we are in the age of 20th Century modern medicine. It has come a long ways in reviving careers...I could list about 40 major league starters but whats the point he is "DAMAGED GOODS"

 

And Brando since when is 89-90 mph fastball a BP fastball? But i regress...

[Mathew]

Armas would be the 3rd best pitcher on our team right now.

[Steff]

Watch this guy toss 8 innings with 12 K's tonight

[Gene Honda Civic]

count me in on the Armas Jr. bandwagon.

[hammerhead johnson]

Montreal would have to consider trading Armas, as he missed almost all of last year, and is paying him $2.1 mill. this year.

 

Armas was supposed to be better than Vazquez last year, and was pitching better when he got hurt.

Montreal is not that stupid.

 

Don't you think that they'd like to hang onto guys like Tony Armas and Livan Hernandez so that they can be somewhat competitive right off the bat when they get to D.C.? They're both relatively young.

 

And Vazquez is one of the top 10 starters in this league. Armas doesn't even begin to approach that guy's talent level. I don't know where you got that from. Is that what Gammons said?

 

I know that they're a s***ty team and all, but they're definitely an exception in this case because they're moving to D.C. But you're looking at the right division. The Mets will be 10 games out of first come the end of July, with three teams ahead of them. It's Glavine time.

[beck72]

Montreal is not that stupid. 

 

Don't you think that they'd like to hang onto guys like Tony Armas and Livan Hernandez so that they can be somewhat competitive right off the bat when they get to D.C.?  They're both relatively young. 

 

And Vazquez is one of the top 10 starters in this league.  Armas doesn't even begin to approach that guy's talent level.  I don't know where you got that from.  Is that what Gammons said?

 

I know that they're a s***ty team and all, but they're definitely an exception in this case because they're moving to D.C.  But you're looking at the right division.  The Mets will be 10 games out of first come the end of July, with three teams ahead of them.  It's Glavine time.

You bash me for suggesting a guy like Armas could be available [which given Mon's finances certainly is a possibility], and then suggest Glavine is the guy?!

 

If the Mets are anywhere near .500, they'll be buyers. Glavine isn't going anywhere.

 

Re: Armas and Vazquez. Before Armas got hurt he was throwing better than Vazquez, and was pitching like the ace of the staff. He's two years younger, and has similar career stats as Vazquez, and better in others [k/ 9IP, BAA, G/ F, HR allowed, etc]. He's also shown the improvement in command that one would expect in a top of the rotation guy.

 

So while he may not pitch like an ace right away [Armas threw fine yesterday, tiring late in the 5th and 6th innings to give up 2 runs, with 3 BB and 7 k's] he still has a huge upside this year and in the future.

 

Montreal can't afford to keep all 3 SP's [Livian, Armas and Ohka, making $12.4 mill combined this year, not to mention what increases A + O will get next year in arbitration], esp. when they have good cheap guys like Vargas and Day.

[hammerhead johnson]

You bash me for suggesting a guy like Armas could be available [which given Mon's finances certainly is a possibility], and then suggest Glavine is the guy?!

 

If the Mets are anywhere near .500, they'll be buyers. Glavine isn't going anywhere.

 

Re: Armas and Vazquez. Before Armas got hurt he was throwing better than Vazquez, and was pitching like the ace of the staff. He's two years younger, and has similar career stats as Vazquez, and better in others [k/ 9IP, BAA, G/ F, HR allowed, etc]. He's also shown the improvement in command that one would expect in a top of the rotation guy.

 

So while he may not pitch like an ace right away [Armas threw fine yesterday, tiring late in the 5th and 6th innings to give up 2 runs, with 3 BB and 7 k's] he still has a huge upside this year and in the future.

 

Montreal can't afford to keep all 3 SP's [Livian, Armas and Ohka, making $12.4 mill combined this year, not to mention what increases A + O will get next year in arbitration], esp. when they have good cheap guys like Vargas and Day.

I didn't bash you, bro. In fact, I enjoy your posts very much.

[upnorthsox]

Montreal is not that stupid. 

 

Don't you think that they'd like to hang onto guys like Tony Armas and Livan Hernandez so that they can be somewhat competitive right off the bat when they get to D.C.?  They're both relatively young. 

Wasn't the same thing said about Vlad and Vasquez? I wouldn't count anything out.

 

Of the two though, I'd prefer Livan over Armas, less risk and more playoff experience.

[hammerhead johnson]

Wasn't the same thing said about Vlad and Vasquez? I wouldn't count anything out.

 

Of the two though, I'd prefer Livan over Armas, less risk and more playoff experience.

Vlad and Vazquez would have been free agents demanding 10+ million before the D.C. era. If I'm not mistaken, they have Livan and Armas locked down & it would be senseless for the Expos to get rid of them now. Too much long term potential.