I refuse to jinx him ... but AROW

[WilliamTell]

Ichiro is a monster, didn't he struggle at first this year. I could have sworn his average was in the .270's in May. lol and if .270 is a struggle, wonder how Valentin feels about that one.

[LDF]

arow=fluke and i hope i am wrong.

[Gene Honda Civic]

arow=fluke and i hope i am wrong.

You are wrong.. Before the season I predicted .285 20 HR's 75RBI -- He might not make the RBI total, but that has more to do with his spot in the order, and the loss of Frank and Maggs.

 

Can you imagine what his numbers would be if he was hitting in front of Frank? I get chills just thinking about it. He had a .345AVG/900OPS entering this season from the #2 spot.

 

Here's his up to date numbers since coming back from Charlotte last season, shaking off the effects of the Motocross accident.

 

461 AB's -- 26 HR's 40(2B) .318AVG .583SLG -- OPS about 930(I can't figue it easily without looking at boxscores)

 

He's done it for a full season. I wouldn't go giving him a multi-year deal yet, but I expect him to produce at around this rate for the next 5 years or so (barring injury) He's still got 3 years of Arbitration left.

 

Next season I would expect 25HR's, 90RBI, and a .295/.885OPS for a full season.. That's on the low side... Considering he hasn't truly taken advantage of the "Coors field of the midwest" --

 

HOME: .309 / .944 AWAY: .333 / .975

[LDF]

You are wrong..  Before the season I predicted .285 20 HR's 75RBI --  He might not make the RBI total, but that has more to do with his spot in the order, and the loss of Frank and Maggs. 

 

Can you imagine what his numbers would be if he was hitting in front of Frank?  I get chills just thinking about it.  He had a .345AVG/900OPS entering this season from the #2 spot.

 

Here's his up to date numbers since coming back from Charlotte last season, shaking off the effects of the Motocross accident.

 

461 AB's -- 26 HR's 40(2B) .318AVG .583SLG -- OPS about 930(I can't figue it easily without looking at boxscores)

 

He's done it for a full season.  I wouldn't go giving him a multi-year deal yet, but I expect him to produce at around this rate for the next 5 years or so (barring injury) He's still got 3 years of Arbitration left. 

 

Next season I would expect 25HR's, 90RBI, and a .295/.885OPS for a full season.. That's on the low side... Considering he hasn't truly taken advantage of the "Coors field of the midwest" --

 

HOME: .309 / .944 AWAY: .333 / .975

again i have a feeling that this is a lucky yr for him, and as i said i hope i am wrong.

 

just like i have said last yr with elo that he was lucky and i was proven right. i didn't want to be right, but i was.

 

again i will say this, i hope i am wrong, this will save us some money for investing it in another player that we need.

[Gene Honda Civic]

Huge difference between E-Lo and Arow.

 

E-low -- Everyone could see that one coming. 5.6ERA in September last season -- Career ERA in the 5's -- He had the single flukiest season of any pitcher in the history of baseball. He did this at AGE 30, passed the usual age for decline in pitchers.

 

Arow -- Without this season -- Career AVG= 275 (he could go 0-50, and still not fall to a .275AVG)-- You can see it in his approach. He just tries to hit everything hard... He doesn't care where it goes (read: he's not trying to hit HR's) just wants to put the ball in play hard. Aaron has posted a OPS he never even approached in the Minors, but he did hit HR's and put up a .281 career AVG in the minors. His "Fluke" season comes at the age 26/27, just before the peak for most hitters. Sure he may never reach these lofty hieghts again. But he's got a FAR better chance of posting simillar numbers for a few more years.

[YASNY]

Rowand is a solid ballplayer. I've been talking that since joining Soxtalk. I don't think he'll be a consistent .320 hitter for the next 4 years. But, I believe he'll give us solid production for the next 4 years, barring injury.

[NUKE_CLEVELAND]

How good is ARow becoming?

Is this a fluke or is he an all-star?

Are you all thrilled with Rowand's production?

Describe ARow in 10 words or less, please

Lets-see-if-he-can-do-this-consistently-beyond-2004.

 

There ya go.

[LDF]

Lets-see-if-he-can-do-this-consistently-beyond-2004.

 

There ya go.

i will have a wait and see approach with him. i am all for him.

 

Cheats and Yansy, even you mention that he might not hit like he did, but see a person who will put up nice numbers................ like what?

 

 

here is a question, do we upgrade a position if that person is a proven player or do we take a chance with arow?

 

 

remember when jose cruz jr and our chance to get him?

[NUKE_CLEVELAND]

i will have a wait and see approach with him. i am all for him.

 

Cheats and Yansy, even you mention that he might not hit like he did, but see a person who will put up nice numbers................ like what?

 

 

here is a question, do we upgrade a position if that person is a proven player or do we take a chance with arow?

 

 

remember when jose cruz jr and our chance to get him?

I say we make him the full time starter in RF next season after Maggs walks and see where he goes. The only way we're gonna find out of this kid is for real is if we give him the job full time.

[LDF]

as much as i hate to say this, only for the reason on not upgrading the pos, i agree with you. i need to see if he is a one fluke or not.

[Gene Honda Civic]

Cheats and Yansy, even you mention that he might not hit like he did, but see a person who will put up nice numbers................ like what?

I imagine him hitting in the .285 area for most of his career, Power increasing for the next couple, and RBI total to go up according to his movement into an RBI slot in the order. The one area that I hope to see improvement on is in his ability to take walks.

 

.285/.335/.525 -- 25HR's 80RBI's would be a good projection for him next season -- Though

.285/.350/.540 -- 30HR's 90RBI's would be a good projection for a couple of seasons down the road.

 

It's not like he's jon Garland who has 3 good starts in a row, and we're now expecting him to dominate.

 

Aarons put it together for over a year now. That's something you can project. I don't think he'll ever be among the league leaders in BA again, but when you play a solid centerfield and put up solid power numbers, and come as cheaply as Aaron will for the next three seasons, that shouldn't be an issue.

 

here is a question, do we upgrade a position if that person is a proven player or do we take a chance with arow?

I don't see who you can get to patrol centerfield who would be better than Aaron. Edmonds is the only player who provides better defense and power. There's a few that are better defensively, but they are locked up in deals. Plus Aaron's value is diminished when he's moved to another position. His production is well above that of the average Centerfielder, but it's not as far above the average production of a rightfielder. It would have to be a significant upgrade defensively for me to move Aaron anywhere.

 

Here's a question for you; You said "or take a chance on Aaron", who would you rather have in his place, and how do you propose to get him here?

[CanOfCorn]

Ichiro .371..

He is f***ing sick. He's gonna break some records this year. If he really (and I mean really) tears it up.. he could hit .400. I know it's a stretch, but he (or Bonds if he ever gets pitched to) can hit .400..

Damn good hitter, but he'll never hit .400 cuz he doesn't walk enough. Too many at bats. Bonds has a better chance.

 

ARow for Sox MVP!!!

[Yoda]

He does not have enough at-bats to be eligible.

Correct. I was looking at my morning newspaper and checked on AL Top 10 and Rowand wasn’t there. Then I quickly remembered he doesn’t have enough at bats.

 

Still... A-Row should keep hitting.

[Gene Honda Civic]

Correct. I was looking at my morning newspaper and checked on AL Top 10 and Rowand wasn’t there. Then I quickly remembered he doesn’t have enough at bats.

 

Still... A-Row should keep hitting. 

It doesn't go by AB's, other wise Barry Bonds wouldn't be eligible....

 

Aaron's AB's > Barry AB's

 

It goes by PA's per team game.... 3.1 PA's per team game to be exact. In other words you have to make 502 PA's on the season to be eligible... Rowand has 409 in 130 games or 3.14 PA's per game -- HE IS ELIBLE.

Edited September 1, 2004 by The Cheat

[3E8]

Needs one more edit.

[Gene Honda Civic]

Needs one more edit.

Nah, I just Highlighted my own mistake... I like to show my own fallabilty... It keeps me humble

[LDF]

I imagine him hitting in the .285 area for most of his career, Power increasing for the next couple, and RBI total to go up according to his movement into an RBI slot in the order. The one area that I hope to see improvement on is in his ability to take walks.

 

.285/.335/.525 -- 25HR's 80RBI's would be a good projection for him next season -- Though

.285/.350/.540 -- 30HR's 90RBI's would be a good projection for a couple of seasons down the road.

 

It's not like he's jon Garland who has 3 good starts in a row, and we're now expecting him to dominate. 

 

Aarons put it together for over a year now.  That's something you can project.  I don't think he'll ever be among the league leaders in BA again, but when you play a solid centerfield and put up solid power numbers,  and come as cheaply as Aaron will for the next three seasons, that shouldn't be an issue.

 

 

I don't see who you can get to patrol centerfield who would be better than Aaron.  Edmonds is the only player who provides better defense and power.  There's a few that are better defensively, but they are locked up in deals.  Plus Aaron's value is diminished when he's moved to another position.  His production is well above that of the average Centerfielder, but it's not as far above the average production of a rightfielder.  It would have to be a significant upgrade defensively for me to move Aaron anywhere.

 

Here's a question for you;  You said "or take a chance on Aaron", who would you rather have in his place, and how do you propose to get him here?

all i was showing was doubt about him.

 

you did ask a good question on what i would do or want.

 

for the cost and what we need to address, i would take a chance on him and hope that he can put up some semblence of stats that he is doing now.

 

maybe there is someone who we can get thru a trade, but who that player is now, i do not know.

[Gene Honda Civic]

You are wrong..  Before the season I predicted .285 20 HR's 75RBI --  He might not make the RBI total, but that has more to do with his spot in the order, and the loss of Frank and Maggs.

I was doing some digging through the Archives while putting together a little something for my blog. I found this nugget.

 

http://www.soxtalk.com/forums/index.php?sh...ndpost&p=222024

 

Rowand I think is going to break out... He was gapping doubles last year, in the second half, like i have never seen him before... and he almost finished with a higher Avg. than Carlos. If given the the opportunity to play CF, I think AR will put up some decent numbers..

 

.278 18HR 74RBI

 

Where is the patting myself on the back smilie?...

[YASNY]

I have to agree with Cheat. In fact, .285 BA was precisely the number I had in mind. But I think, over a 3 or 4 year period he'll be closer to a .300 hitter. I'd say .285 may be his worse average for a full season over that period.