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What could have been.


Gene Honda Civic

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Back in June KW got raked over hot coals in the media, and by many here, for acquiring Freddy Garcia from the M's for the cost of a streaky, poor-hitting, catcher with a reputation for poor play-calling in '04, their top prospect and and a project of a minor league infielder...He also got a similarly poor catcher in return.

 

A few days later FG signed to a 3-year $27M contract extension.

 

Fast forward 6 months, and pitchers are getting handed incredibly rich contracts for seemingly no reason.

 

       3yr AVG WARP     Salary/yr            $$$/WARP

Benson 2.03 $7.5 $3.69M

Wright 1.37 $7.0 $5.12

Wilson 3.03 $4.1 $1.35

Bradke 5.00 $9.0 $1.80

 

 

I talked a little bit about game theory and the Winner's Curse in a couple of other threads, but I won't get into it here. Pay attention to the last column, over the past few season's the Major league owners have been paying about $1M-1.25M for each Win Above Replacement. (In theory a team made up of purely AAA players will win about 60 games, WARP is a stat that approximates how many more wins above that of a AAA player that a player provides a team)

 

For those wondering Garcia averaged 5.43WARP the last three seasons, and garnered an extension at $9M per, meaning KW paid $1.65M per win above replacement, well under the current market value.

 

Given the current market, we see that not only is FG a bargain, so too is Paul Wilson!!!!

 

I would imagine that the opening figure to land FG would he have been a FA would have been about $11-12M/yr....

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