Dye to Reds Speculation

[caulfield12]

A deal for Javy should also include another young arm [who has thrown 100 + innings in the bigs] who could be the 4th/ 5th starter. I think an OFer could also be had in the deal, who could compete for a spot.

 

Quentin would probably be moved to RF, as the sox would probably want a better athlete for LF and CF. Taveras would probably be in CF.

 

I'd deal for a vet such as Duchscherer who could be a health risk [with his hip], yet has a big upside.

 

 

But who are 1) we willing to trade without hurting our core, and 2) who would BB be willing to accept....for Duchscherer?

 

Why would you trade him, if you were Beane, unless you thought he would never be the same pitcher he has been the past couple of seasons before his injury?

[GreatScott82]

Who would be your LFer then? Wise? Viciedo? Quentin? Fields? (assuming we move Carlos over to RF is most logical, if Dye were to be traded)

 

Would you then go out and have the confidence to deal Vazquez and go with four youngsters in the rotation?

 

Would you sign a veteran for the 5th spot just in case, or pray that Bailey and Richard/Poreda came through?

As of right now, Poreda will join the bullpen. But he has pitched a lot of innings in 2008 down in the minors and in the AFL... i think the 5th spot will be a battle between Richard, Marquez and Poreda. If Poreda loses, he will join the pen. Marquez and Bailey will likely head the rotation down in triple-a. If Javy is traded (like most of us think he will be) im guessing KW signs a FA pitcher. If you think about it... i know i sound crazy but if Javy and JD are traded for young talent, the payroll will be cut down to 75 million. And next year, it would be down to 53-57 million after Thome and Contreras' contracts expire. So the Sox would have PLEANTY of enough money THIS offseason to sign free agent STUD CC Sabathia. I know its something the Sox organization just doesn't do, but if the Sox would so such a thing, it would be for a guy like this.

If my ridiculous thought of Sabathia doesn't come true (and there is a 90% chance that it wont). Than i could see KW go after a guy like Sheets for like a 2 years with a contract built around incentives (like he has to pitch a certain amount of innings to make X amount of dollars etc...)

 

So our rotation will likely look like this:

Buerhle

FA pitcher signing

Floyd

Danks

Poreda, Richard, Marquez and Bailey to battle it out in Spring Training....

[caulfield12]

Cricket players Rinku Singh and Dinesh Patel, whom the Pirates signed as pitchers after they appeared on reality TV in India, were recommended by scout Ray Poitevint, whose stay with the Sox delivered few strong prospects. …

 

Left-hander Tyler Lumsden, the key to the 2006 deal that sent Mike MacDougal from Kansas City to the White Sox, was traded by the Royals to Houston last week, clearing roster space. Unfortunately for the Sox, right-hander Dan Cortes, a lesser piece of the deal, has evolved into one of the Royals' top prospects. … Chone Figgins might be the most overrated big-leaguer. He and the Angels' other third basemen combined for three homers and 34 RBIs, the fewest homers from a group of third basemen since the 1992 Twins and fewest RBIs since the 1988 Orioles. Figgins' best tool is his speed, but Bill James rates him as only a plus-7 baserunner, the same as Aramis Ramirez and J.D. Drew. progers/chicagotribune

 

I don't think our payroll would possibly come close to getting in the 50's, even with Contreras and Thome gone.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[GreatScott82]

Cricket players Rinku Singh and Dinesh Patel, whom the Pirates signed as pitchers after they appeared on reality TV in India, were recommended by scout Ray Poitevint, whose stay with the Sox delivered few strong prospects. …

 

Left-hander Tyler Lumsden, the key to the 2006 deal that sent Mike MacDougal from Kansas City to the White Sox, was traded by the Royals to Houston last week, clearing roster space. Unfortunately for the Sox, right-hander Dan Cortes, a lesser piece of the deal, has evolved into one of the Royals' top prospects. … Chone Figgins might be the most overrated big-leaguer. He and the Angels' other third basemen combined for three homers and 34 RBIs, the fewest homers from a group of third basemen since the 1992 Twins and fewest RBIs since the 1988 Orioles. Figgins' best tool is his speed, but Bill James rates him as only a plus-7 baserunner, the same as Aramis Ramirez and J.D. Drew. progers/chicagotribune

I don't think our payroll would possibly come close to getting in the 50's, even with Contreras and Thome gone.

According to the payroll sheet on Soxtalk it would. If you cut Thome's 13 million, Vazquez 11 million, Dye's 11.5 million, and Contreras 10 million your payroll would indeed drop to the 50's-60's. This is of course saying KW doesn't sign any free agents to the club this offseason of course... KW has the flexibility this offseason to get involved with the Sabathia sweepstakes if he choses. But a FA signing of Sheets with incentive clauses seems more of the way he would go. He took a chance on El-Duque after his previous injuries in 2005 in worked out pretty well. ESPECIALLY if you have guys like Poreda, Marquez and Bailey waiting in the wings- you can definitley afford to take a chance on a guy like Sheets this offseason.

[caulfield12]

But that's not factoring in increases for the likes of Quentin, Danks, Jenks, Floyd, etc., as they reach years 4-6 and start making bigger salaries through arbitration.

 

It's also not taking into account Viciedo's contract yet, is it?

 

I can see mid-60's, but not reaching down into the 50's in any possible scenario.

 

I also think if Alexei Ramirez has another year like 2008, KW might try to negotiate an extension and pay him a much "fairer" salary to control his rights an additional two seasons.

 

As far as Sheets goes, I think he will get a guaranteed three seasons, and maybe even four, from some team out there that misses on Sabathia/Burnett/Lowe and is left deciding to offer Sheets big money or go with Wolf/Perez/Garland, moves that wouldn't excite many fanbases but which cost MINIMUM Kyle Lohse money and probably closer to $11.5-13.5 million per season.

Edited November 30, 2008 by caulfield12

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Who would be your LFer then? Wise? Viciedo? Quentin? Fields? (assuming we move Carlos over to RF is most logical, if Dye were to be traded)

 

Would you then go out and have the confidence to deal Vazquez and go with four youngsters in the rotation?

 

Would you sign a veteran for the 5th spot just in case, or pray that Bailey and Richard/Poreda came through?

He's a bad fit for what we're trying to accomplish this year (getting younger, faster, and getting smarter hitters) but I'd go after Adam Dunn. Put him in LF for '09 and then move him to DH in 2010 after the Sox let Thome walk. I think he'll end up getting 4 years from someone, but it seems like he might be one of those more bargain type players in this market since there haven't been rumors about large market teams being interested in him (at least not that I've seen, although I only check MLBTradeRumors for that stuff). I'd want better OF defense in the future of course, but I'd look to make a trade or FA signing for another corner OF after '09 to do that.

 

In a perfect world for me, I'd deal Thome now and sign Dunn to replace him as DH, but that won't happen. No. 1, because of Thome's NTC and inability to play the field, we couldn't deal him anyway. And no. 2, even if we could trade him, why would any team want to give up talent for him to be a DH when they could just sign another DH candidate, like Dunn, Ibanez, Griffey, etc.

 

If a Dunn signing would not work out, I would be interested in signing Juan Rivera for something like 3/$15M guaranteed with performance escalators involved that could make him up to $10 per season. He's a guy who has really been hampered by injuries and lack of playing time in the Angels' crowded OF, but he has the talent to be a fine producer. I think he'd be at least league average as a starter if he's healthy, and with the right deal we'd be able to trade him should we look to upgrade in that spot.

 

Another possibility could be Jeremy Hermida. I think there will be a lot of people here who wouldn't mind taking a shot at him since his ceiling is so high, and he is a buy-low candidate, but the problem there is that he is arbitration eligible, meaning that if he does break out we'll essentially finish developing him just in time for him to bolt via FA.

 

And then there is Griffey too. He's obviously been hurt, but is another low risk/high reward opportunity for us with the right deal. A one year, $6M contract with performance incentives wouldn't kill us in '09 since we're supposedly going to be cutting so much payroll, and the upside there is the deal can't hurt in the long run.

 

 

[Jimmywins1]

So our rotation will likely look like this:

Buerhle

FA pitcher signing

Floyd

Danks

Poreda, Richard, Marquez and Bailey to battle it out in Spring Training....

 

1. Danks

2. FA pitcher

3. Buehrle

4. Floyd

5. Bailey/Richard/Marquez/Poreda

 

 

And if we trade Jermaine Dye, why not offer Bobby Abreu a 2-3 year/30-45 million contract?

He hits for a good average, has a great OBP and he's fast, have either him or Carlos play RF, and his contract will be done by the time Danks/Shelby are ready.

Edited November 30, 2008 by Jimmywins1

[caulfield12]

For the Bob Abreu of five years ago, maybe. The whole point of trading Dye was getting younger/faster/payroll flexibility, not going out and trading for someone "older" who's MORE expensive. This is the type of signing KW will never, ever make IMO.

 

Not now for Abreu....too late. He's not the same player he once was. He's not as fast as he used to be either.

 

I don't think either Danks or Shelby are being looked at as RFers. Viciedo, from everything we've seen and heard, would be a better fit for RF than either of those guys. Danks is a CFer and Shelby doesn't really have a position where he's a "plus" defender, at least as of yet, and maybe ever.

Edited November 30, 2008 by caulfield12

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

A deal for Javy should also include another young arm [who has thrown 100 + innings in the bigs] who could be the 4th/ 5th starter. I think an OFer could also be had in the deal, who could compete for a spot.

 

Quentin would probably be moved to RF, as the sox would probably want a better athlete for LF and CF. Taveras would probably be in CF.

 

I'd deal for a vet such as Duchscherer who could be a health risk [with his hip], yet has a big upside.

Agree, and if we get Bailey out of a Dye deal then I don't think we can plan on him as a starter. Same with Marquez.

 

Say we get Bailey + Freel (to take his salary which it seems the Reds fans want) + low-level upside prospect (kind of like Elvis Andrus in the Tex deal, Engel Beltre in the Gagne to BOS deal, etc.) for Dye.

 

Then we should make sure we get a guy that we feel is ready to be a fixture in the rotation right now as a #4, which is why I really like the Edwin Jackson rumors. After that, I'd like another SP prospect to compete with Bailey and Marquez for a 5th spot, and if neither guy looks good, then maybe we look to sign a veteran innings eater or something, or try out Egbert, or even go with the vaunted fifth starter by committee s*** that got us killed pre-2005 for a half of a season while counting on Contreras to rejoin the rotation.

 

So, let's say we do something like this:

 

Dye to CIN for Bailey, Freel, low-level upside prospect (I think it's probably more realistic than Bailey + Dickerson)

 

Jenks + maybe mid-level prospect/spare part reliever to TB for Edwin Jackson + Jeff Niemann

 

Vazquez to Atlanta for one MLB-ready or very close to MLB-ready prospect PLUS a prospect who isn't that far away, probably one OF and one pitcher, like:

JoJo Reyes/Charlie Morton/Gregor Blanco/Jordan Schafer + Cole Rohrbough/Gorkys Hernandez/Jeff Locke

 

Hanson and Heyward should definitely be off the table

 

OR

 

Do a Vazquez deal with the Rangers if possible, and there are some interesting possibilities here. They have lots of pitching and OF prospects, so there's no reason even list them all. The Brewers have some possibilities as well. And maybe even the Nats if they really want to get some veterans. The Mets are probably the worst fit IMO, unless they want to give up Martinez and Niese or something. I doubt Pelfrey was ever on the table because had he been the deal would've been done by now.

 

If we can do all that, then Jackson is our #4, the other guys compete against each other for the 5th spot, and we sign a corner OF. If we don't get a CF ready to play now, we deal for Taveras, sign Kotsay, start Anderson, whatever, anything but Jerry Owens.

[eickevinmorris]

What is it with people and Edwin Jackson? He's not very good at all.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

For the Bob Abreu of five years ago, maybe. The whole point of trading Dye was getting younger/faster/payroll flexibility, not going out and trading for someone "older" who's MORE expensive. This is the type of signing KW will never, ever make IMO.

 

Not now for Abreu....too late. He's not the same player he once was. He's not as fast as he used to be either.

 

I don't think either Danks or Shelby are being looked at as RFers. Viciedo, from everything we've seen and heard, would be a better fit for RF than either of those guys. Danks is a CFer and Shelby doesn't really have a position where he's a "plus" defender, at least as of yet, and maybe ever.

If Abreu gets 3 years/$45M or so, that will be the worst contract given out on the FA market this year, unless Burnett and/or Sheets sign for 5 years. Abreu doesn't have the type of power to justify moving him to DH, which is exactly where he is headed.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

What is it with people and Edwin Jackson? He's not very good at all.

Some people actually see his stuff and the improvements he has made and recognize his potential should he continue to develop as he has been. He's a potential #1/#2 starter who right now is a capable #4/#5. The Rays are only dealing him because they don't want to pay arbitration on the guy when they've got a stacked rotation and bunch of awesome prospects ready to make the jump.

[eickevinmorris]

Some people actually see his stuff and the improvements he has made and recognize his potential should he continue to develop as he has been. He's a potential #1/#2 starter who right now is a capable #4/#5. The Rays are only dealing him because they don't want to pay arbitration on the guy when they've got a stacked rotation and bunch of awesome prospects ready to make the jump.

He's going to regress hardcore if he has the same control problems this season. The kid walks way too many guys and doesn't miss a lot of bats. Pass.

 

 

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

He's going to regress hardcore if he has the same control problems this season. The kid walks way too many guys and doesn't miss a lot of bats. Pass.

The problem here is that you're just pulling this out of your ass. What evidence do you have that suggests he'll regress? He has lowered his H/9 and BB/9 rates each season since he got to Tampa, and the guy is 24 freaking years old. 24, and he made his MLB debut as a 19 year old. He's not like some 28 year old AAAA player or anything. His K/9 rate dipped last year, but it looks like that is because he was still having control problems overall, but because of his improvements with his control, he ended up missing in the zone more than he'd done the year before. The guy still can't hit his spots, but he's finding the plate more, and IMO that is why his K/9 took a dip. His stuff didn't regress in any way, and if he continues to improve his control and becomes able to hit his spots more often with his FB, look the f*** out, because that slider is a wicked out pitch that will make him a legit top-end starter.

 

Overall it looks like Jackson was rushed by the Dodgers, who then gave up on him and traded him for scraps basically in Denys Baez. It appears he has turned the corner, and if he has indeed done that, he's a great buy.

Edited November 30, 2008 by Kenny Hates Prospects

[eickevinmorris]

The problem here is that you're just pulling this out of your ass. What evidence do you have that suggests he'll regress? He has lowered his H/9 and BB/9 rates each season since he got to Tampa, and the guy is 24 freaking years old. 24, and he made his MLB debut as a 19 year old. He's not like some 28 year old AAAA player or anything. His K/9 rate dipped last year, but it looks like that is because he was still having control problems overall, but because of his improvements with his control, he ended up missing in the zone more than he'd done the year before. The guy still can't hit his spots, but he's finding the plate more, and IMO that is why his K/9 took a dip. His stuff didn't regress in any way, and if he continues to improve his control and becomes able to hit his spots more often with his FB, look the f*** out, because that slider is a wicked out pitch that will make him a legit top-end starter.

 

Overall it looks like Jackson was rushed by the Dodgers, who then gave up on him and traded him for scraps basically in Denys Baez. It appears he has turned the corner, and if he has indeed done that, he's a great buy.

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php...-jackson-clutch

 

That sums it up fairly well.

 

[caulfield12]

"Perhaps it’s possible that Jackson simply focuses better in important situations, allowing him to pitch better with runners on base. I am skeptical of this proposition in general, but I allow that it’s possible.. "

 

Well, I don't think this guy has ever seen Javier Vazquez or Mark Buerhle pitch, because there's a difference between pitchers who can get out of jams, pitch around errors and leave the bases loaded and those who can't. I'm sure there is absolutely nothing in Gavin Floyd's or Danks' stats that would have predicted their success this year in leaving runners stranded.

 

Simply, the author doesn't really allow for the proposition that a pitcher might gain more confidence and "bear down" in situation where a mistake means multiple runs for the opposition. Success builds upon success. Confidence changes the arsenal of a pitcher, look no farther than Cliff Lee or Jon Danks for confirmation. From watching Mark Buehrle throughout his entire career, I don't buy this argument. And it would be VERY VERY difficult to prove statistically. It's just a supposition or theory. I prefer to trust me "eyes" from watching the games, rather than what the stats will say the next day.

Edited November 30, 2008 by caulfield12

[eickevinmorris]

"Perhaps it’s possible that Jackson simply focuses better in important situations, allowing him to pitch better with runners on base. I am skeptical of this proposition in general, but I allow that it’s possible.. "

 

Well, I don't think this guy has ever seen Javier Vazquez or Mark Buerhle pitch, because there's a difference between pitchers who can get out of jams, pitch around errors and leave the bases loaded and those who can't. I'm sure there is absolutely nothing in Gavin Floyd's or Danks' stats that would have predicted their success this year in leaving runners stranded.

 

Simply, the author doesn't really allow for the proposition that a pitcher might gain more confidence and "bear down" in situation where a mistake means multiple runs for the opposition. Success builds upon success. Confidence changes the arsenal of a pitcher, look no farther than Cliff Lee or Jon Danks for confirmation. From watching Mark Buehrle throughout his entire career, I don't buy this argument. And it would be VERY VERY difficult to prove statistically. It's just a supposition or theory. I prefer to trust me "eyes" from watching the games, rather than what the stats will say the next day.

He's never shown this ability before, ever. It's more than likely a statistical anomaly rather than a repeatable skill.

[caulfield12]

Then Danks and Floyd and Quentin and Ramirez are also anomalies.

 

Look at Sandy Koufax...he struggled for a long time and then the lights just came on one day, or Randy Johnson. Nolan Ryan? Everyone knew they had the stuff..it was just a matter of execution and putting it all together.

 

You have to be willing to believe that pitchers don't "progress" as they get older, especially a pitcher who started his major league career with on-the-job training in his teens. Granted, he could end up like Jon Garland and just be a decent or "average" 4/5 starter...but Garland doesn't have nearly the type of stuff that Jackson has.

 

Or how do you explain someone like Matt Thornton's career path? Bobby Jenks?

 

If there weren't "anomalies," and everything was predictable, there would be no need to even play the games...they could all be simulated and predicted with 100% accuracy.

Edited December 1, 2008 by caulfield12

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php...-jackson-clutch

 

That sums it up fairly well.

Not really. It says he did better in clutch situations and that he was uncharacteristically good in those situations, so he'll get worse as time moves on.

 

That doesn't make sense, firstly because like I said before, the kid is 24 and he improved his peripheral stats. The only peripherals he didn't improve upon were HR/9 and K/9, but IMO there is a very good reason for that and it has nothing to do with some clutch stat. IMO, his HR/9 and K/9 rates in 2007 were artificially high. Jackson turned in his first full pro season that year and the league hadn't adjusted to him yet. In 2008 he harnessed his control more, but the opposition probably stopped chasing his slider as much as they had been and decided to just sit on his fastball and make him get over the plate.

 

Instead of reading that crap, just go to baseballreference.com and look at the stats themselves, especially by month. He was better in the 2nd half of '07 than he was in the 1st half of '07; he was better in the 1st half in '08 than he was in the 2nd half of '07, and he was doing better in the 2nd half of '08 than in the 1st half of '08 until September came, and then he hit the wall and had 3 really bad starts that hurt his 2nd half numbers. He has been improving his game gradually and actually seems poised for a breakout. If you look at his gamelog, he had 6 really bad starts where he gave up 6 runs and generally couldn't get out of the 4th inning. There are lots of games where he was walking 3-4 people and still getting away with it based on stuff. He cut his BB rate by a full one walk plus last year, and if he does that again he'll put up an ERA in the 3's.

 

As far as him becoming a better pitcher with men on base, why is that a bad thing? That is a sign of a guy turning a corner and becoming a Major League pitcher.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

He's never shown this ability before, ever. It's more than likely a statistical anomaly rather than a repeatable skill.

He is 24 years old! Of course he hasn't shown that before, duh! He's a kid learning how to pitch. There is no sample size big enough to suggest that it is an anomaly. 2008 was his second full season in the bigs and you can't compare anything to that except his 2008 numbers, which in comparison are an improvement. You can't compare some bad minor league numbers or something and say it is his statistical norm or anything like that.

Edited November 30, 2008 by Kenny Hates Prospects

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Then Danks and Floyd and Quentin and Ramirez are also anomalies.

 

Look at Sandy Koufax...he struggled for a long time and then the lights just came on one day, or Randy Johnson. Everyone knew they had the stuff..it was just a matter of execution and putting it all together.

 

You have to be willing to believe that pitchers don't "progress" as they get older, especially a pitcher who started his major league career with on-the-job training in his teens. Granted, he could end up like Jon Garland and just be a decent or "average" 4/5 starter...but Garland doesn't have nearly the type of stuff that Jackson has.

 

Or how do you explain someone like Matt Thornton's career path? Bobby Jenks?

 

If there weren't "anomalies," and everything was predictable, there would be no need to even play the games...they could all be simulated and predicted with 100% accuracy.

Exactly. I have no idea how these people - not talking about the poster but the guy who wrote that junk about how it's unlikely for him to be as clutch - get off on writing that stuff about young, unproven pitchers who are learning at the Major League level. If it is a veteran, fine, then it's okay to look at that stuff and compare his numbers to previous years in his career. As a young player, no way.

 

The guy improved his control, which was his problem, and improved his H/9 and WHIP as a result. Maybe he was "lucky" in that he didn't get hurt more last year pitching with men on, but how can you ignore the fact that his improvement suggests he'll end up in fewer of those situations next year? If his control keeps improving there will be less situations for him to be "lucky." And god do I hate that word in reference to baseball. Like, "oh Nick Swisher was unlucky last year." Bulls***. Nick Swisher was trash last year, I watched his at-bats and he looked lost up there. Jackson wasn't lucky, he is just a guy with an extremely high ceiling who appears to be putting it together, which is exactly why we should look to pick him up if he's available on the cheap.

[ThunderBolt]

Here's the link to the Jocketty article if anyone's interested:

http://news.cincinnati.com/article/2008113.../811300417/1071

[caulfield12]

Note to KW...if the Reds can do it, so we can we (of course, Ramirez and Viciedo are both Latin Americans...but we are traditionally talking DR and Venezuela)

 

"The structure is there," he said. "Look at what they've done in Latin America."

 

The Reds invested nearly $5 million in three 16-year-olds, outfielders Juan Duran, Yorman Rodriguez and left-handed pitcher Ismael Guillon. You don't do that unless you're interested in the long-term security of the club.

 

Fans get caught up in the day-to-day transactions on the big-league level. Rightfully so - you're not going to buy tickets to see Duran, Rodriguez and Guillon play in the Dominican. And all three are at least four years from helping the Reds win a game. quote from the article

[southsider2k5]

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php...-jackson-clutch

 

That sums it up fairly well.

 

This article is a great example of why the pure statistical approach misses on a great game. There is a reason Edwin Jackson is clutch, and that is because of his stuff. Put fairly simply, it is hard to center up and hit his pitches. Its not like he has anything that is straight which he is throwing up to home plate. It would be different if he has a mediocre fastball, or ordinary slider, but he doesn't. Looking at those numbers doesn't tell that story. I know you can't just look at this stuff either, and proclaim him one of the best starters in the game, but you can't completely ignore it either.

[southsider2k5]

Not really. It says he did better in clutch situations and that he was uncharacteristically good in those situations, so he'll get worse as time moves on.

 

That doesn't make sense, firstly because like I said before, the kid is 24 and he improved his peripheral stats. The only peripherals he didn't improve upon were HR/9 and K/9, but IMO there is a very good reason for that and it has nothing to do with some clutch stat. IMO, his HR/9 and K/9 rates in 2007 were artificially high. Jackson turned in his first full pro season that year and the league hadn't adjusted to him yet. In 2008 he harnessed his control more, but the opposition probably stopped chasing his slider as much as they had been and decided to just sit on his fastball and make him get over the plate.

 

Instead of reading that crap, just go to baseballreference.com and look at the stats themselves, especially by month. He was better in the 2nd half of '07 than he was in the 1st half of '07; he was better in the 1st half in '08 than he was in the 2nd half of '07, and he was doing better in the 2nd half of '08 than in the 1st half of '08 until September came, and then he hit the wall and had 3 really bad starts that hurt his 2nd half numbers. He has been improving his game gradually and actually seems poised for a breakout. If you look at his gamelog, he had 6 really bad starts where he gave up 6 runs and generally couldn't get out of the 4th inning. There are lots of games where he was walking 3-4 people and still getting away with it based on stuff. He cut his BB rate by a full one walk plus last year, and if he does that again he'll put up an ERA in the 3's.

 

As far as him becoming a better pitcher with men on base, why is that a bad thing? That is a sign of a guy turning a corner and becoming a Major League pitcher.

 

Those numbers say one thing to me pretty clearly. Tampa Bay is having Jackson pitch to more contact which reduces his hits, walks, and strikeouts per nine innings. Then when things get dicey in the clutch, Jackson rares back and throws his hardest fastball, or his nastiest slider to get out of the situation, because guys aren't responding in the clutch the same way they are the rest of the time.