Had a pretty damn good under the radar last year.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4727757

 

 

Randy Wolf, Jeff Suppan. Jeff Suppan, Randy Wolf.

Had a pretty damn good under the radar last year.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4727757

 

Pitching in a pitcher's park.

 

He had a career low in BABIP (50 points below his career average), most of it was luck.

BABIP alone proves a little less than nothing.

BABIP alone proves a little less than nothing.

 

For a veteran whose had a long history and a BABIP of around .300, a BABIP of .225 just doesn't fit. In this case, it alone can tell a lot. Of course, you can look at what trajectory the balls were, but in Wolf's case, I don't even think that's necessary. He also had the second lowest BAA in his career. These things correlate.

 

Large ballpark + low BABIP = success.

Edited December 9, 200916 yr by chw42

For a veteran whose had a long history and a BABIP of around .300, a BABIP of .225 just doesn't fit. In this case, it alone can tell a lot. Of course, you can look at what trajectory the balls were, but in Wolf's case, I don't even think that's necessary. He also had the second lowest BAA in his career. These things correlate.

 

Large ballpark + low BABIP = success.

 

Not to mention a pretty damn good defense behind him. I don't think Wolf has anywhere near the season in '10 that he had in '09.

Not to mention a pretty damn good defense behind him. I don't think Wolf has anywhere near the season in '10 that he had in '09.

This has Jeff Suppan written all over it again.

 

I see Wolf with an ERA around 4.50 next season.

 

But that's the price you've got to pay if you can't develop your own pitching.

Wolf hasn't been fully healthy for a while. When he was, he was very good. And he was much better away from Dodger Stadium. I like Randy Wolf. He's not Jeff Suppan.

Wolf hasn't been fully healthy for a while. When he was, he was very good. And he was much better away from Dodger Stadium. I like Randy Wolf. He's not Jeff Suppan.

 

He actually got better away from Petco in 08. And its not like the Astros had a good infield defense, and Minute Maide is still a great hitters park.

 

I like it in the short term. Come year 2, the Brewers are going to regret it, even if Wolf remains effective, and come year 3, s*** will probably hit the fan.

Edited December 12, 200916 yr by witesoxfan

even when healthy is Wolf a $29,000,000 man?

even when healthy is Wolf a $29,000,000 man?

 

He was pretty good last season and the Brewers need a dependable arm in their rotation because Manny Parra is not ready to step up. Wolf actually has a lot of value to them, and that's why they can justify the contract. He's a decent #2 starter in the NL, and that's where he'll be in Milwaukee (behind Gallardo). Fangraphs had him worth $13.6mil last season and projects his 2010 to be worth $13mil. Maybe the Brewers got a slight bargain? I doubt it, though. I think he'll hover around .500 with a 4.00 ERA just as he has his whole career.

He was pretty good last season and the Brewers need a dependable arm in their rotation because Manny Parra is not ready to step up. Wolf actually has a lot of value to them, and that's why they can justify the contract. He's a decent #2 starter in the NL, and that's where he'll be in Milwaukee (behind Gallardo). Fangraphs had him worth $13.6mil last season and projects his 2010 to be worth $13mil. Maybe the Brewers got a slight bargain? I doubt it, though. I think he'll hover around .500 with a 4.00 ERA just as he has his whole career.

If Wolf can do what he did last year for the next 3 then yeah that's a bargain...but the odds of it don't strike me as high.